| 定价机制类型 | 适用对象 | | --- | --- | | 成本加成定价("一厂一价") | 2014年2月前投产的存量水电站 | | 跨区域落地倒推电价 | 跨省 / 区送电的新建水电站 (2014年2月后投产) | | 省内标杆电价 | 省内消纳的新建水电站 (2014年2月后投产) | | 市场化定价 | 全部水电(主要是超计划电量) | | | 2 雪球:聚焦企业内在价值 | 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：聚焦企业内在价值 来源：雪球 净利润=上网电量x（平均上网电价-度电完全成本） 所以，关于水电，就先从定价机制开始谈起吧！ 中国水电定价机制经历了从政府定价向市场化方向的渐进式改革，目前形成"计划与市场双轨并 行"的多元体系。目前主要包括以下四类： 下面是定价机制以及对应的相关政策： | 阶段 | 政策 | 关键改革内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2001 | 规范电价管理有关问题 | 明确按经营期核定水电商平均上网电价 | | 2014 | 完善水电上网电价形成机制 | 新投产电站执行跨区倒推价或省内标杆价 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility on the last trading day of May, with major indices showing a "V" shape recovery after a sharp decline triggered by Trump's announcement on tariffs and manufacturing policies [1][10] - Trump proposed to increase the import tariff on steel from 25% to 50% to protect the U.S. steel industry from foreign competition, which led to a rise in steel stocks post-announcement [4][5] - Trump also mandated that U.S. automakers, including Tesla, must produce entire vehicles and all parts domestically, causing Tesla's stock to drop over 3%, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $38.6 billion [7][8] Group 2 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their best monthly performance in nearly a year, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% and the Nasdaq nearly 10% in May [2][12] - The volatility in the market was exacerbated by increased policy uncertainty in the U.S., with notable investors like Jim Rogers and Michael Burry reportedly liquidating their U.S. stock holdings [3][26] - The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth slowed significantly in April, with core PCE prices at a four-year low of 2.5%, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [21][22]

Current Market Environment and Asset Overview - High-dividend bank stocks and Hong Kong growth-oriented tech stocks show significant divergence in performance amid a declining interest rate environment and changing policy landscape. As of May 2025, major state-owned banks have lowered one-year deposit rates to a historical low of 0.95%, while bank dividend yields exceed 4%, with some surpassing 6%, creating a notable "substitution effect" that attracts institutional funds into the banking sector [1][2] - Despite facing short-selling pressures in mid-May 2025, the fundamentals and policy support for Hong Kong tech stocks remain strong. The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is being implemented, with leading companies like Alibaba committing to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, driving significant capital inflows into the tech sector [2] High-Dividend Bank Stocks: Defensive Attributes and Steady Returns - Dividend Advantage and "Substitution Effect": In a low deposit rate environment, bank stocks offer an average dividend yield of over 4%, with major state-owned banks exceeding 4.5%. For a 1 million yuan investment, annual returns from bank dividends can reach 45,000 yuan, significantly higher than the deposit interest [3][4] - Policy Benefits and Increased Holdings: New regulations strengthen dividend constraints and link dividends to the valuation system, enhancing the sustainability of bank dividends. As of Q1 2025, insurance funds' holdings in the banking sector reached 27.2%, the highest since 2018, indicating strong institutional interest [5][6] - Core Competitiveness and Moat: Large banks benefit from economies of scale, strong brand reputation, government support, and diversified business structures, which help mitigate risks and enhance profitability [6][7] Hong Kong Growth-Oriented Tech Stocks: High Growth and High Returns - Industry Benefits and Policy Support: The core driver for Hong Kong tech stocks is the AI technology breakthroughs leading to an industrial upgrade cycle. The Chinese government is actively supporting AI initiatives, providing long-term growth momentum for tech companies [8][9] - Valuation Recovery and Capital Inflows: Despite a promising industry outlook, Hong Kong tech stocks remain undervalued, with the Hang Seng Tech Index trading at a P/E ratio of 21.73, indicating a significant safety margin. Southbound capital inflows into the tech sector have surged, reflecting a shift in global capital perception towards Chinese tech stocks [10][11] - Core Competitiveness and Moat: Hong Kong tech stocks possess strong technological innovation capabilities, broad market prospects, ecosystem advantages, and significant investments in talent and R&D, which are crucial for maintaining competitive edges [11][12] Investment Value Analysis - High-dividend bank stocks provide stable cash flow returns, making them attractive for conservative investors, especially in a low-interest-rate environment. As the economy recovers, banks' valuations may also see improvement [7] - Hong Kong growth-oriented tech stocks offer high growth potential and investment returns, appealing to investors with a higher risk tolerance, particularly in the context of global digital transformation [12] Allocation Strategy - For insurance and pension funds, a strategy of "core holdings in bank stocks + satellite allocation in tech stocks" is recommended, with 70%-80% in state-owned banks for stable dividend yields and 20%-30% in tech ETFs to capture growth [13] - For public and actively managed funds, a dynamic balancing strategy is suitable, adjusting allocations between bank and tech stocks based on market conditions [14] - Individual investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," focusing on bank ETFs for stable dividends while also investing in tech ETFs, utilizing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate timing risks [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advantages of reversal strategies in the A-share market, highlighting the unique characteristics of this market that make such strategies effective [3][6]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - A-share market is known for its rapid trend changes and high volatility, with popular sectors averaging a duration of less than six months over the past decade [3]. - The market is characterized by a high proportion of retail investors, leading to emotional trading that exacerbates short-term fluctuations [4]. - Intense capital competition results in a "quick in and out" trading behavior among investors [5]. Group 2: Reversal Strategies - Reversal strategies, which involve buying recently underperforming stocks, leverage market sentiment swings to identify value recovery opportunities [6]. - The article introduces two main reversal strategies: Dividend Strategy and Micro-cap Strategy [6]. Group 3: Dividend Strategy - The Dividend Strategy focuses on stocks with significantly high dividend yields, which are often undervalued due to market pessimism or short-term fluctuations [7]. - This strategy aims to capture price recovery as the market corrects its mispricing of stable assets, with regular rebalancing being crucial for its effectiveness [8]. Group 4: Micro-cap Strategy - The Micro-cap Strategy targets the smallest listed companies, which are often overlooked and can experience significant price rebounds when market conditions improve [9]. - These stocks are sensitive to market trends and can quickly respond to changes, making them attractive during specific market phases [9]. - The performance of micro-cap stocks has outpaced mainstream indices in 2023, indicating their potential for high returns [9]. Group 5: Combined Strategy Benefits - Combining Dividend and Micro-cap Strategies can provide complementary advantages, reducing volatility and expanding the range of investment opportunities [10]. - The Dividend Strategy offers stability, while the Micro-cap Strategy provides high elasticity, allowing for a balanced approach to different market conditions [10]. Group 6: Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of these strategies and their applicable environments for achieving excess returns in the A-share market [16]. - It suggests that ordinary investors can consider index funds or quantitative products that track these strategies for diversified participation [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance and strategies of various brands, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the market. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant shift, with a noted decline in May's returns at -0.5%, attributed to the "chicken hatching" system, which suggests that concentrated investments bear higher risks but also potential rewards [2] - The article emphasizes that the current market dynamics are different from the past, with brands like Lao Jiao needing to adapt to new consumer behaviors and market conditions [2][3] - The article mentions that the government consumption accounts for less than 5% of liquor consumption, indicating that the impact of regulatory changes may be overstated [3] Group 2: Brand Analysis - Lao Jiao's high dependence on its flagship product, Guojiao, poses a risk, as any fluctuations in its performance can significantly impact the overall brand [4] - The article suggests that while Guojiao maintains stability in certain markets, the low-degree Guojiao has shown year-on-year growth, indicating a potential area for expansion [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Yanghe facing challenges due to their weaker fundamentals, while Lao Jiao is positioned to capitalize on current market conditions [3][4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The article predicts that the current inventory crisis in the liquor market will lead to a reshuffling of brand rankings, establishing a new market structure for the next decade or two [4] - The projected top ten liquor brands for 2024 include Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, Lao Jiao, Yanghe, and others, indicating a competitive market landscape [5]

以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创 业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢 向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 懒人养基 来源：雪球 顾名思义 ， 偏债基金的收益来源主要是债 ， 投资股票的收益算是 " 锦上添花 " 部分 ， 所以我们可以看 到 ， 在2022-2024年偏股基金出现大幅下跌时 ， 偏债基金虽然业绩也并不出彩 ， 但持有体验会好得多 。 根据我的观察 ， 偏债基金虽然也是主动管理型基金 ， 对经验丰富的老将而言 ， 其业绩稳定性要比偏股基 金好得多 ， 出现大起大落的概率并不大 ， 因此对偏债基金而言 ， 基金经理的任职年限是一个相对较为可 信的选基指标之一 ， 读者朋友可以在以下的表格数据中重点关注下 。 当然 ， 也会有少量偏债基金追求业绩弹性 。 我认为选择偏债基金本来就是求稳的 ， 对于业绩大起大落的 偏债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that dividend yields from funds are currently more stable and attractive compared to bank deposit interest rates, which are below 1% [1] Summary by Sections Dividend Fund Trends - Between 2006 and 2016, Japan saw a continuous increase in the asset scale of fixed dividend fund products [1] - Higher dividend frequency correlates with larger fund sizes, with monthly and quarterly dividends being particularly significant for cash flow needs of both young homeowners and retirees [5] Quarterly Dividend Fund List - A list of 21 quarterly dividend funds was compiled from 33 dividend indices as of May 2025 [6] - The article provides a detailed table of these funds, including their codes, names, management fees, and total dividend yields for 2025 [8][24] Dividend Yields of Specific Funds - As of May 2025, several funds reported their cumulative dividend yields: - China Merchants CSI Dividend ETF: 1.01% - E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 0.79% - Bosera CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF: 1.17% - E Fund Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 1.98% - Fortune Central Enterprises Dividend ETF: 0.62% [11][12][13][14][15] - For off-exchange funds, notable yields include: - Harvest CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF: 5.32% - Harvest CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF Class C: 5.04% - Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect Dividend Growth Index A: 4.12% - Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect Dividend Growth Index C: 4.01% [16][17][18] Fee Structure and Selection Criteria - The article suggests prioritizing funds with low management and custody fees (around 0.2%) alongside high dividend yields [21][23] - The combination of high dividends and low fees is presented as a strategy to ensure cash dividends while minimizing investment costs [23]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific markets collectively declined, with the Nikkei 225 and the Korea Composite Index dropping nearly 1%, and the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.5% during intraday trading [1] - The A-share market also saw all three major indices decline, with several high-priced stocks like Wangzi New Materials and Yong'an Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit down [2] High-priced Stocks Plummet - High-priced stocks experienced significant drops, with Wangzi New Materials hitting the daily limit down at a price of 19.67 CNY per share, reflecting a decline of 9.98% [4][5] - Yong'an Pharmaceutical also faced a daily limit down, citing a significant deviation from its fundamentals and warning of high speculation risks [7] - Other high-priced stocks such as Shangwa Co., Guofang Group, and others also reported substantial declines [13] Innovation Drug Sector Strengthens - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, saw a strong performance, with companies like Ruizhi Pharmaceutical and Nuo Si Lan De rising over 15% [15] - The National Medical Products Administration recently approved 11 new drug listings, covering various therapeutic areas, which has contributed to the positive sentiment in the sector [19] - Analysts believe that the pharmaceutical sector is supported by four key factors: ongoing demand for healthcare, increasing global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs, signs of profit reversal, and low valuations in the innovative drug sector [20][21] Livestock Sector Leads Gains - The livestock sector led the market gains, with pig and chicken farming concepts showing the highest increases, including stocks like Juxing Agriculture and Xiangjia Co. hitting the daily limit up [23] - Recent legislative efforts in Shanghai and Sichuan aim to support the development of the livestock industry, which may further bolster the sector [26]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that asset allocation is the "free lunch" of investing, as it significantly contributes to long-term investment returns while minimizing risks and volatility [2][11] - The article highlights that 90% of investment returns come from successful asset allocation, while timing and stock selection contribute less than 10% [2] - Common pitfalls for investors include chasing high-performing funds, being unable to withstand volatility, and over-concentration in a single asset class [2] Group 2 - The "Three Moats" of asset allocation are based on three dimensions: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [3] - Asset diversification involves investing in low-correlation assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities to optimize risk-return profiles [3] - Market diversification allows investors to bet on the future of different economies, such as China's manufacturing upgrades, the U.S.'s technological innovations, and emerging markets' demographic advantages [4][5] Group 3 - Time diversification through regular investment (e.g., dollar-cost averaging) helps investors avoid emotional decision-making and reduces trading errors [6] - The first step for ordinary investors is to clarify their goals and risk tolerance, which includes determining expected returns, maximum drawdown, and investment horizon [7] - The second step involves selecting underlying assets and funds, focusing on both beta returns from broad indices and alpha returns from quality active funds [8] Group 4 - The third step is dynamic rebalancing, which involves periodic adjustments to maintain target asset allocations and optimizing based on valuation and market sentiment [9] - The essence of asset allocation is to serve life goals, such as retirement savings and wealth growth, rather than being an end in itself [10] - The article concludes with a quote from Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of not putting all eggs in one basket and finding a robust framework for investment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent interest rate cuts in China, particularly the first drop of the one-year deposit rate below 1%, marking the entry into a low-interest era. Despite this, bank stocks have surged, raising questions about their investment value in the current environment [3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment - The recent interest rate cuts have led to a significant decline in deposit rates, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1%, indicating a shift to a low-interest environment [3]. - The bank AH index has a high dividend yield of 7.3%, attracting investor interest despite the low-interest rates [3][10]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - There is a common belief that dividend yields should be directly linked to risk-free rates. However, the article argues that this assumption is flawed, as evidenced by the disparity between dividend yields and the risk-free rates of government bonds [5][13]. - The article highlights that the bank AH index's dividend yield significantly exceeds the risk-free rate, suggesting that it is not overvalued even in a low-interest environment [5][10]. Bank AH Index Performance - The bank AH index has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of nearly three times over the past 12 years and an annualized return exceeding 12%. It also has the lowest maximum drawdown among related indices [7][9]. - The index employs a dynamic adjustment strategy, switching between A-shares and H-shares based on their performance, effectively implementing an arbitrage strategy [9][10]. Market Valuation Metrics - The article introduces a valuation metric called "市赚率" (Market Earnings Rate), which is calculated as the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the return on equity. This metric is used to assess the attractiveness of bank stocks [11][12]. - In a low-interest environment, the reasonable valuation range for the market earnings rate is suggested to be between 1.1PR and 1.4PR, indicating a higher tolerance for valuations [13][14]. Investment Strategy - The article recommends focusing on industry leaders for valuation, using examples like 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) as a benchmark for the banking sector [15][16]. - The adjusted market earnings rate for 招商银行 is calculated to be 0.76PR, suggesting that it is within a comfortable investment range in the current low-interest environment [16][17].