经济观察报
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在浅流动性里寻找真趋势——迈向2026年的多资产思维
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "shallow liquidity," indicating a shift in global dollar liquidity from being extremely ample to merely sufficient, which can lead to significant volatility across various asset classes [4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, there is a notable disparity in asset performance, with silver and gold prices rising significantly, while major stock indices like the S&P 500 are experiencing declines [6]. - The market is currently witnessing a "shallow liquidity market," characterized by a rebound in U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, while funds are shifting from high-growth sectors to defensive sectors [7]. - Analysts suggest that this reflects a cross-asset deleveraging process, where funds are realigning based on price, interest rates, and leverage [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a reduction while others prefer to maintain current rates [10]. - The uncertainty surrounding short-term interest rate paths is increasing, with market expectations fluctuating rapidly [11]. Group 3: Goldman Sachs Insights - Goldman Sachs' 2026 outlook emphasizes a multi-layered framework for investment, suggesting a shift from a U.S.-centric equity market to a more diversified global approach [13]. - The report highlights the importance of fixed income strategies, advocating for a return to duration management and credit differentiation in response to global inflation and growth disparities [14]. - Private equity and real estate are seen as areas where value creation will be prioritized over mere valuation stories, with a focus on operational improvements and technological enhancements [15]. Group 4: Investment Strategies for China - For Chinese investors, the focus should be on structural resilience amidst complexity, with an emphasis on value stocks and technology-driven consumption [17]. - Gold and precious metals are recommended as long-term assets for risk management, while fixed income investments are viewed as tools for stabilizing returns and hedging against volatility [18]. - The investment narrative is shifting towards building a resilient structure to navigate uncertainties rather than chasing fleeting opportunities [19].
企业如何控制AI大模型的应用风险
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The invention of AI large models presents unprecedented opportunities and risks for enterprises, necessitating a collaborative approach between humans and AI to leverage strengths and mitigate weaknesses [3][17][18]. Group 1: AI Development and Adoption Challenges - The rapid development of AI large models has led to capabilities that match or exceed human intelligence, yet over 95% of enterprises fail in pilot applications of AI [3][4]. - The difficulty in utilizing AI large models stems from the need to balance the benefits of efficiency with the costs and risks associated with their application [4]. Group 2: Types of Risks - AI risks can be categorized into macro risks, which involve broader societal implications, and micro risks, which are specific to enterprise deployment [4]. - Micro risks include: - Hallucination issues, where models generate plausible but incorrect or fabricated content due to inherent characteristics of their statistical mechanisms [5]. - Output safety and value alignment challenges, where models may produce inappropriate or harmful content that could damage brand reputation [6]. - Privacy and data compliance risks, where sensitive information may be inadvertently shared or leaked during interactions with third-party models [6]. - Explainability challenges, as the decision-making processes of large models are often opaque, complicating accountability in high-stakes environments [6]. Group 3: Mitigation Strategies - Enterprises can address these risks through two main approaches: - Developers should enhance model performance to reduce hallucinations, ensure value alignment, protect privacy, and improve explainability [8]. - Enterprises should implement governance at the application level, utilizing tools like prompt engineering, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), content filters, and explainable AI (XAI) [8]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Management - Enterprises can treat AI models as new digital employees, applying management strategies similar to those used for human staff to mitigate risks [11]. - For hallucination issues, enterprises should ensure that AI has access to reliable data and establish clear task boundaries [12]. - To manage output safety, enterprises can create guidelines and training for AI, similar to employee handbooks, and implement content filters [12]. - For privacy risks, enterprises should enforce strict data access protocols and consider private deployment options for sensitive data [13]. - To enhance explainability, enterprises can require models to outline their reasoning processes, aiding in understanding decision-making [14]. Group 5: Accountability and Responsibility - Unlike human employees, AI models cannot be held accountable for errors, placing responsibility on human operators and decision-makers [16]. - Clear accountability frameworks should be established to ensure that the deployment and outcomes of AI applications are linked to specific individuals or teams [16].
银行系公募发力权益赛道,中加基金“二次创业”路径观察
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 13:11
中加基金持续完善产品体系被市场视为"二次创业"。事实上, 中加基金的第一次创业成功抓住了固收业务的周期红利,实现 了管理规模从零到千亿的突破;而第二次创业的核心任务,是 要在新的行业发展阶段中,构建起"全天候、多策略、矩阵 式"的产品能力体系。 作者:默川 封图:图片资料室 2025年5月7日,证监会正式发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》(以下简称《行动方 案》),标志着我国公募基金行业进入深化改革、提质增效的新发展阶段。《行动方案》明确提 出"大力提升公募基金权益投资规模与占比,促进行业功能发挥"。 面对政策引导与市场转型的新常态,以固收见长的银行系公募基金,其破局关键在于主动优化业务 布局,着力构建平台化、体系化的权益投研能力,从而完成从传统"资金管理"向新时代"资本赋 能"的功能升级。 11月中旬,原中航基金副总经理兼首席投资官邓海清已正式离职,其从业资格在中航基金显示已 注销。据了解,邓海清拟出任中加基金首席经济学家、首席投资官。这位在宏观、固收与权益领域 均有深厚积淀的金融老将的加盟,也是中加基金落实《行动方案》推动业务转型升级的新行动。 公开资料显示,邓海清拥有复旦大学金融学博士学位,曾在宏源 ...
科研圈潜规则让骗子郭伟成为科学家
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The Guo Wei case reflects the deep-rooted issues in China's research field and serves as a crucial opportunity for reform, emphasizing the essence of research as the pursuit of truth and exploration of the unknown, which cannot tolerate any falsehood or speculation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Issues - The Guo Wei case reveals the long-standing underlying problems in the research sector, where an individual managed to deceive institutions for years by fabricating credentials and research achievements, ultimately leading to significant financial gains [2]. - The case highlights the "quantitative worship" in research evaluation and resource allocation, where the focus on metrics such as publications, projects, titles, degrees, and awards has simplified the evaluation process to mere comparisons of indicators, allowing fraudsters to exploit these weaknesses [3]. - The prevalence of "circle culture" and "information barriers" in the research community has facilitated the perpetration of fraud, as trust is often based on personal connections rather than actual capabilities, leading to a lack of thorough verification of credentials [4]. Group 2: Resource Allocation and Regulation - The "heavy application, light regulation" approach in resource distribution has created an environment conducive to fraud, where the initial competition for project approval is intense, but subsequent monitoring and verification of results are often superficial [5]. - The lack of effective oversight mechanisms allows individuals like Guo Wei to fabricate data and papers to meet project requirements, as the regulatory bodies often adopt a lenient stance towards compliance [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Reform - To prevent similar fraud cases, it is essential to break the "quantitative indicator" evaluation paradigm and shift towards a system that values quality, innovation, and social contribution, establishing a diversified evaluation framework [6]. - Building a transparent research integrity system is crucial, which includes a unified platform for verifying researchers' credentials and achievements, and introducing cross-disciplinary review processes to eliminate the "circle culture" [6][7]. - Strengthening the regulatory framework throughout the research process is necessary, including rigorous verification of application materials, dynamic monitoring of project progress, and third-party evaluations of research outcomes to ensure accountability [7].
小红书搅动投资圈
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 12:27
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of Xiaohongshu Venture Capital in Shenzhen's investment scene, highlighting its rapid investment capabilities and unique approach to deal-making [1][3][5]. Investment Strategy - Xiaohongshu Venture Capital has invested in nearly 10 startups within six months, showcasing a preference for quick decision-making and minimal due diligence [5][9]. - The team can complete investments within 24 hours, often bypassing traditional due diligence processes, which has led to a competitive environment among seasoned investors [3][5]. - Xiaohongshu is willing to increase valuations by 20%-30% to secure exclusive investment opportunities, with investments typically ranging from several million to over 10 million USD [5][10]. Market Position - The valuation of Xiaohongshu surged by 19% in just three months, reaching 31 billion USD, indicating a shift in investor perception from a mere traffic platform to a platform giant with a complete business ecosystem [9][10]. - The company aims to build an ecosystem rather than focusing solely on short-term financial returns, as evidenced by its active investment strategy [8][10]. User Engagement - As of August 2025, Xiaohongshu's monthly active users exceeded 350 million, with an average daily usage time of over 74 minutes, reflecting strong user engagement [11]. Strategic Acquisitions - Xiaohongshu's acquisition of Guangdong Oriental Electronic Payment Co., Ltd. for 100% ownership is seen as a strategic move to complete its commercial ecosystem by obtaining a payment license, reducing reliance on third-party payment platforms [10].
“南北双雄”崛起,中国AI的下一站在哪里?
经济观察报· 2025-11-25 11:40
Core Viewpoint - Alibaba and Ant Group's AI products have successfully penetrated the consumer market, challenging ByteDance's long-standing dominance in this area [2][5]. User Growth Data - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app achieved over 10 million downloads within a week of its public testing starting on November 17 [2]. - Ant Group's AI assistant "Lingguang" reached 2 million downloads in just 6 days, with the first million achieved in 4 days, topping the App Store's free tools category in China [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The competition in the AI to C market is shifting from a focus on model capabilities and traffic to a deeper value creation based on real user needs [5]. - The emergence of a "North ByteDance, South Alibaba" competitive landscape reflects a transformation in user demand and corporate ecosystem advantages [5][9]. User Demand Evolution - The core competitive advantage of AI to C products has shifted from conversational fluency and entertainment to practical utility [6]. - Lingguang's ability to generate interactive applications in 30 seconds has sparked a trend towards AI as a productivity tool rather than just a source of information [6][8]. Functional Features - Lingguang's initial features include "Lingguang Dialogue," "Lingguang Flash Applications," and "Lingguang Open Eye," addressing the need for practical tools rather than just information delivery [8]. - The surge in demand for "Flash Applications" led to temporary outages, indicating a strong market need for low-barrier productivity tools [8]. Ecosystem Differences - ByteDance's strategy is rooted in algorithm-driven traffic aggregation, focusing on emotional interaction and content creation [9][11]. - In contrast, Alibaba's AI capabilities are built on a foundation of public service infrastructure, emphasizing practical and inclusive solutions [11][13]. Future Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for AI applications, with the ability to address real-life challenges determining success in the AI market [9][14]. - Lingguang's growth potential lies in ecosystem collaboration and technological iteration, with plans to integrate various services to create a closed-loop system [15][16].
“小作文”掀翻万亿AI龙头?工业富联紧急澄清“英伟达下场”传言
经济观察报· 2025-11-24 14:32
Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced significant volatility, dropping over 30% from its peak, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 500 billion yuan within a short period [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2023, Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52% year-on-year [3]. Stock Market Reaction - On October 29, following the release of its quarterly report, Industrial Fulian's stock price surged over 9%, closing at 80.8 yuan per share, with a market capitalization reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, a historical high [3]. - On November 24, the stock price fell to 54.61 yuan per share, marking a decline of 9.99% by midday, and ultimately closing at 55.95 yuan, down 7.80% for the day, with trading volume exceeding 18.7 billion yuan [2]. Market Speculation and Response - A circulating rumor suggested that Nvidia would enter the server market, leading to a potential downward revision of Industrial Fulian's revenue expectations for Q4 2025, which contributed to the stock's decline [3][4]. - Industrial Fulian issued a clarification stating that the rumors regarding a downward adjustment of Q4 performance targets were unfounded, asserting that operations and customer demand remained strong [4][5]. Management's Outlook - During a quarterly earnings call, management expressed confidence in ongoing projects and customer demand, indicating that the company had not adjusted its performance expectations despite market speculation [5][6]. - Analysts have deemed the rumors about Nvidia's market entry as unreliable, emphasizing that such a move would not align with Nvidia's profit strategy [6]. Industry Context - Other companies in the computing power sector also experienced stock price declines during the same period, with notable drops including 10.96% for Zhongji Xuchuang, 28.64% for Xinyi Sheng, and 23.74% for Tianfu Communication [6].
俄乌和平有望,路线难免曲折
经济观察报· 2025-11-24 12:49
在国际法中,事实上的承认(de facto recognition)与法律 上的承认(de jure recognition)是两个概念。特朗普不愿意在 法律上承认俄罗斯对乌东的占有,但乌克兰又不能在短期内收 复失地,于是先承认现状。 作者:王义伟 封图:东方IC 2025年11月19日,美国白宫官员宣布,美国总统特朗普批准了一项旨在促进俄乌和平的28点计 划。稍后有消息传出,特朗普要求乌克兰总统泽连斯基必须在11月27日感恩节之前接受该计划。 11月20日,美国媒体AXIOS独家发布了28点计划的全文。 全球舆论一片哗然。 相当一部分西方主流媒体认为这份计划严重偏袒俄罗斯,中文媒体(包括自媒体)也议论纷纷,有 媒体甚至将该计划总结为四句话:土地属于俄罗斯,荣耀属于乌克兰,资源属于美国,债务属于欧 洲。 抛开美国和俄罗斯不谈,很显然,作为俄乌冲突的直接当事方和深度参与方,乌克兰(总统泽连斯 基)和欧盟高层是认真研究了这个计划的。 11月21日,泽连斯基就28点计划向全国发表视频讲话,称这是历史上最困难的时刻之一,乌克兰 面临选择,"要么失去我们的尊严,要么失去一个关键的盟友"。 11月22日,欧盟委员会发表声 ...
泰康资产担当耐心资本,以长期主义助力高质量发展
经济观察报· 2025-11-24 12:49
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term, value-oriented investment strategies in the insurance asset management sector, highlighting the recognition of Taikang Asset as a leading representative of patient capital in the industry [2][5][13]. Group 1: Taikang Asset's Recognition and Role - Taikang Asset has been recognized as an exemplary institution for practicing the "three investments" philosophy in the asset management industry by 2025 [2]. - The company is acknowledged for its commitment to rational, value, and long-term investment principles, which have garnered high recognition within the industry [2][5]. - As a leading insurance asset management institution, Taikang Asset plays a crucial role in supporting the real economy and capital market development through its long-term investment advantages [2][5]. Group 2: Advantages of Insurance Capital - Insurance capital is characterized by large scale, long duration, and stable sources, making it a natural patient capital that supports the healthy and sustainable development of the real economy and capital markets [5]. - The insurance asset management industry possesses several advantages, including a long-term investment mindset, policy support for serving the real economy, and mature risk management capabilities [5][6]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance capital utilization exceeded 36 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The future outlook indicates that insurance capital will continue to play a significant role as long-term and patient capital, striving to "cross cycles" in investment layouts [6]. - Taikang Asset aims to optimize investment strategies by exploring diverse investment models and enhancing strategy configurations to better support the transformation and high-quality development of the real economy [6][10]. - The company is focusing on fundamental analysis for long-term stable asset appreciation, targeting high dividend assets and sectors aligned with national development strategies, such as high-end manufacturing and artificial intelligence [10]. Group 4: Commitment to Supporting the Real Economy - Since its establishment in 2006, Taikang Asset has actively participated in major infrastructure projects, supporting national strategies and the real economy [12]. - The company has been involved in significant projects like the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and the West-to-East Gas Transmission project, demonstrating its commitment to innovation and industry leadership [12]. - Taikang Asset is positioned as a key player in the insurance asset management sector, ranked 52nd globally and 3rd in China in the 2025 IPE "Global Asset Management 500" list [12].
你的境外收入,税务局开始“点名”了
经济观察报· 2025-11-24 12:49
Group 1: Tax Revenue Growth - Personal income tax revenue in China reached 13,363 billion yuan from January to October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, with October's growth rate jumping to 27.3% [2] - The increase in personal income tax is attributed to improved tax administration efficiency and diversification of tax sources, reflecting significant progress in tax governance capabilities [3][5] - The growth in personal income tax revenue is closely linked to enhanced tax collection efforts, particularly regarding overseas income [8] Group 2: Overseas Income Tax Compliance - Tax authorities in major cities have been actively notifying Chinese tax residents who invest in overseas stocks through platforms like Futu and Tiger Brokers to complete their tax declaration for overseas stock trading gains from 2022 to 2024 [1][5] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" has improved the monitoring of cross-border income and enhanced the identification of hidden income among high-net-worth individuals [5][6] - This year marks the first large-scale collection of overseas income tax from Chinese tax residents, utilizing tools like the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) for information exchange [7][8] Group 3: Factors Supporting Tax Revenue Growth - The active capital market has significantly contributed to the increase in capital income, which is a key driver of personal income tax growth [10][11] - High-income groups have shown resilience in their income, with substantial growth in stock option income and performance bonuses among professionals, further supporting tax revenue [11] - Economic recovery and low base effects from the previous year have amplified the growth rate of personal income tax [11]