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Core Viewpoint - Joby and Archer are leading companies in the global eVTOL industry, with their growth paths significantly influenced by the mature aviation ecosystem in the United States, making it challenging to replicate their success in the domestic market. However, key experiences from their development are valuable for domestic eVTOL operators and investors to study and learn from [1]. Global eVTOL Industry Development - From 2017 to 2024, the number of global eVTOL companies surged to over 400, with more than 1,000 concept models. Joby and Archer have raised over $5 billion through SPAC listings, marking the beginning of a high-speed development phase in the industry. Key factors for their growth include strong financing capabilities, support from industry stakeholders, progress in airworthiness certification, and a global commercial layout. Joby has raised a total of $2.7 billion, with shareholders including Toyota, SK Telecom, and Delta Airlines, and has over $900 million in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2025. Joby has completed over 50% of the fourth phase of FAA airworthiness certification and is expanding its market presence in the US, UK, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE. Archer has raised $4.4 billion, backed by Stellantis, Boeing, and United Airlines, with cash reserves exceeding $1 billion as of Q1 2025. Archer's airworthiness progress closely follows Joby, and it plans to launch its "Launch Edition" in 2025, with initial customers in Abu Dhabi, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, while accelerating the mass production of its ARC factory and military collaborations to achieve commercialization quickly [2]. Domestic eVTOL Industry Comparison - Domestic eVTOL manufacturers can be categorized into four types: startup companies (founders typically have aviation backgrounds), traditional general aviation companies (aircraft manufacturers entering eVTOL development), automotive companies (automakers entering eVTOL development), and academic institutions (industry incubation based on university technology). There is a significant gap between domestic and international leading companies. The differences include: - Technological lag: International technologies have converged on tilt-rotor designs, with Joby being the only full tilt-rotor model, while domestic tilt-rotor designs are mostly semi-tilt-rotor. International companies predominantly use piloted modes, while domestic companies are pursuing a dual-track approach of "manned + unmanned," primarily focusing on unmanned operations. Transitioning from "scenic trial" to true "commercial aviation" for unmanned eVTOLs requires not only policy support but also a broad increase in social acceptance, which is approached with cautious optimism. - Resource endowment: Although domestic eVTOL companies are frequently raising funds, their overall scale is significantly smaller than that of international leaders like Joby and Archer. Most domestic companies are startups, characterized by "dispersed, shallow, and phased" industrial resource endowments, with relatively weak integration capabilities in the supply chain, except for automotive manufacturers [3]. Business Logic Divergence - Joby and Archer have rapidly certified and established global standards, while domestic companies primarily focus on CAAC certification. Global commercialization is closely tied to international airworthiness certification, and domestic eVTOL companies are still in the early stages of catching up to Joby and Archer. Key experiences from Joby and Archer's growth paths that are worth emulating for the domestic eVTOL industry include: - Strengthening vertical integration of the industry chain to build a "technology + manufacturing + scenario" collaborative ecosystem - Accelerating mutual recognition of international airworthiness standards - Gradually advancing multi-rotor, compound wing, and tilt-rotor routes - Promoting military-civilian integration [4].

报告导读： 长端合约（ T/TL ）价差倒挂后回正，反映预期与现实再统一，投机力量减 弱；短端合约（ TS/TF ）倒挂呈现常态化，宜聚焦基差套利与 IRR 正套机会。 从理论定价看，国债期货跨期价包括 CTD 券价差与基差之差两部分，其中后者可拆分为持有收益差和净 基差之差，具体而言： ① CTD 券净价之差：近远月合约最便宜可交割券（ CTD 券）的净价差异，受可 交割券范围切换影响，通常与行情无关。②持有收益差：反映资金成本与票息差的持有收益差异，主要受 资金利率预期驱动；③净基差之差：衡量两合约交割期权价值差异，实际交易中主要由市场情绪和行情预 期主导。净基差是扣除持有收益后的基差剩余部分，反映的是交割期权的价值。 长端国债期货合约（ T 、 TL ）跨期价差回正说明什么？ 2023 年以来， 长端国债期货跨期价差基本为 正值，但这一情况在 2024 年末至 2025 年初发生了变化， T 、 TL 合约跨期价差两次走向深度倒挂， 其中 2024 年 11 月中旬主因主力合约切换在即，多头力量集中体现在远月合约，而 2025 年 2 月则是 由于 "谨慎"现实与"乐观"预期的共存。但 2509 合约成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement differs significantly from the supply-side reforms of 2016, focusing on a "time-for-space" strategy rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, with a pragmatic impact on the coal industry, indicating a fundamental turning point [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Strategy - The "anti-involution" concept is central to the new round of supply-side reforms, aiming to regulate low-price disorderly competition and encourage companies to enhance product quality, rather than simply eliminating outdated production capacity [1][3]. - The essence of the "anti-involution" approach is to stabilize price bottoms by alleviating chaotic competition, contrasting with the more drastic measures of 2016 that had significant economic impacts [1][3]. Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, highlighting the need for more mines to reduce production under the "anti-involution" policy [3]. - Supply-side data indicates a noticeable decline in national production from April to May, driven by economic factors leading to spontaneous production cuts, alongside a contraction in imports, suggesting a stable yet decreasing total supply for the year [3]. - Demand-side observations show a recovery in electricity consumption growth rates, with residential electricity usage increasing by 7% and 9.6% in April and May, respectively, indicating a potential turning point for overall electricity demand growth [3].

报告导读： 2025 年上半年行业迎来风平浪静的半年，无风险时代确立，拉长久期将是接 下来的主旋律，相信未来。 确定性的刚性支出减少、确定性的行业信用风险下降，确立无风险时代。 上半年，地产开发投资额同比减 少 11.2% ，仅 4.7 万亿元，若保持这个减少幅度，全年将不足 9 万亿元的刚性支出，而且，这还是在因 为"好房子"标准带来的拿地超预期的情况下完成的。 那么，实际的支出下降更明显，竣工面积增速（ -14.8% ）可以作为参考。 需要注意的是，地产投资下降并不意味着投资失速，相反，这代表的是信用风 险的下降，而在实物开支方面，则有城市更新做对冲，预计全年城市更新的进展将提速，对冲地产开支的 减少。展望下半年，在不考虑拿地的情况下，仅以刚性支出来看，地产的支出压力将进一步下降，全行业 进入确定性的无风险时代。 销售不继续恶化是前提假设， 6 月有走差迹象，但考虑到需求侧政策仍然有发力空间，预计全年仍然是个 位数的缓幅下降。 相比于房企侧，需求侧是今年的政策发力点，目的是止跌回稳，同时，政策空间也更 大，例如当前按揭贷款利率仍然有下调的空间。然而需要注意的是，尽管上半年销售金额同比只下降了 5.5% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries represent the next generation of high-performance batteries, with short-term prospects for oxide semi-solid batteries and long-term potential for sulfide all-solid-state batteries, characterized by high material flexibility and high equipment certainty [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Progress and Market Outlook - The overseas development of solid-state batteries is progressing steadily, with product performance continuously improving. Battery manufacturers and automakers are collaborating on technology licensing, production line construction, and road testing, with mass production timelines set for 2026-2030 [4][12]. - Solid Power and Factorial Energy have entered vehicle testing phases, while QuantumScape and Samsung SDI have delivered samples, all targeting mass production between 2026 and 2030 [4][6]. - The solid-state battery market is expected to reach a shipment volume of 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan [14]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Solid-state batteries are characterized by high energy density and safety, with energy densities ranging from 301 to 560 Wh/kg for various products. For instance, Factorial Energy's Solstice battery supports a range of 1000 km and fast charging capabilities [6][14]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards sulfide technology, with major players focusing on this route due to its potential advantages over existing technologies [8][24]. - The solid-state battery production process involves significant technological barriers, with new equipment expected to accelerate production as companies enter pilot testing phases [9][38]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that are early in solid-state battery development and have experience in large-scale production are likely to benefit from the growing market [20][41]. - The solid-state battery sector is expected to attract significant investment, with government support and policy initiatives aimed at accelerating research and development [21][41]. - The collaboration between automakers and battery manufacturers is expected to drive commercial progress, with several companies already initiating vehicle testing and production plans [12][17].

报告来源 报告导读： 在数字化浪潮中，数据中心作为数字经济的关键基础设施，正经历着深刻变 革。 AI 的蓬勃发展为数据中心带来前所未有的机遇，行业订单呈现出显著的拐点特征，开 启了新一轮的增长周期。 若参考字节、阿里巴巴、腾讯的资本开支规划及对 AI 投入的景气度判断，我们预计未来三年国内的头部 互联网厂商资本开支将维持高位，预计带来至少 7GW 的 IT 电力新增需求，而现有第三方 IDC 储备规模 不到 5GW ，这为相关企业提供了广阔的发展空间。 从需求端来看， AI 已成为算力规模增长的核心驱动力。根据中国信息通信研究院《综合算力评价报 告》， 2023 年底全球算力总规模达 910EFLOPS （ FP32 ），我国智算规模同比增长超 70% ，增长 势头强劲。全球数据中心核心 IT 电力需求预计从 2023 年的 49GW 增至 2026 年的 96GW ，其中新建 智算中心驱动的电力需求占增量的 85% 。海外云厂商如亚马逊、谷歌、 META 、微软等， 2025Q1 资 本开支持续高增，且对 2025 全年保持乐观预期，大量资金将投入 AI 和技术升级领域。国内互联网厂商 也进入 AI 加速投 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 法律声明 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from a technological explosion to commercial validation, with significant developments expected by 2025 [1] Research Reports - The humanoid robot industry is entering the "1 to 100" phase, where manufacturers are tested on their ability to implement scenarios, and the hardware outsourcing model is emerging [1][29] - The market for tactile sensors is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan as humanoid robot production increases [5][7] - The bearing market is expected to see significant growth due to the rising demand from humanoid robots, with a focus on domestic replacement opportunities [9][10] Conference Reviews - Various forums and conferences have been held to discuss the advancements and confidence in the humanoid robot industry, highlighting the collaboration across multiple sectors [3] Deep Report Excerpts - Tactile sensors are crucial for the functionality of humanoid robots, with the market for these sensors expected to grow significantly as production scales up [5][7] - The bearing market is poised for growth, with domestic manufacturers focusing on replacing imported high-end bearings [9][10] - The development of dexterous hands is essential for humanoid robots, with a focus on reducing costs and enhancing functionality [14][15] Industry Trends - The tactile sensor market is projected to grow from $15.33 billion in 2024 to $35.59 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.8% [7] - The global bearing market is expected to exceed $2430.3 billion by 2030, with significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers [10] - The 3C supply chain is well-positioned to enter the humanoid robot market, leveraging its rapid iteration and innovation capabilities [18][19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies that can produce dexterous hands and tactile sensors, as these components are critical for the commercial viability of humanoid robots [14][15] - The domestic bearing industry is encouraged to accelerate technological advancements to meet the growing demand from the humanoid robot sector [9][10] Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is expected to see substantial growth, driven by advancements in technology and increasing production volumes [1][29] - The tactile sensor market could reach approximately 1.3 trillion yuan when humanoid robot production hits 100 million units [7] - The bearing market is projected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end bearings in humanoid robots, with significant potential for domestic replacements [9][10]