报告导读： 高密度算力中心不断发展，芯片层面的冷却技术愈发成为热管理系统的核心瓶 颈，我们认为导热界面材料（ TIM ）的需求将快速增长。 投资观点。 在面对人工智能和更新芯片设计不断增长的需求，当前的冷却技术将在短短几年内限制产业的不断发展。近日，微软宣布已成功开发出一种芯片 内的微流体（ Microfluidic ）冷却系统，可以对模拟团队会议核心服务的服务器进行有效冷却，散热效果比冷板好 3 倍。这个技术方案是将微小的通道直接 蚀刻在硅片的背面，形成凹槽，冷却液直接流到芯片上，实现更有效的散热。我们认为 AI 智算中心的热管理系统的核心瓶颈正不断聚焦于芯片层面，建议关 注 TIM1 、 TIM1.5 、 TIM2 等导热界面材料的需求增长，以及芯片内微流体技术的不断演进 。 AI 发展，热管理对完整散热系统的要求越来越高。 伴随 AI 大模型、 AI 应用的不断发展，其算力底座数据中心面临全新挑战以满足智算发展需求，数据中心 架构正加速向高密度、智能化和可持续方向演进。根据 TrendForce 表示， AI 服务器采用的 GPU 和 ASIC 芯片功耗大幅提升，以 NVIDIA GB200/GB300 ...

Group 1 - The core investment suggestion is that embodied intelligence and computing power supply chains will be significant growth areas for the automotive industry in Q4, with EU carbon emission policies continuing to drive growth in the European new energy vehicle market [1] - The humanoid robot supply chain, particularly components, shows strong potential for catalytic emergence, with major automotive parts companies successfully transitioning to become key players in the humanoid robot supply chain [1] - If leading humanoid robot manufacturers like Tesla launch new products by Q4 2025, the market may adjust expectations for the humanoid robot supply chain shipments in 2026, potentially reaching a production volume of 100,000 units, leading to a market capacity of approximately 10 billion RMB for related components [1] Group 2 - The domestic passenger car market is expected to perform steadily, while the European new energy vehicle market is projected to be a strong growth point globally [2] - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the October automotive market is expected to show a "high open and flat" pattern, with a 5% to 10% year-on-year growth forecasted for sales in Q4 [2] - In Germany, September saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with pure electric vehicle sales reaching approximately 45,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increasing by 85% [2]

Core Insights - OpenAI's release of Sora App and Sora2 model marks a significant shift in AI technology from text and images to high-quality video generation and social applications [1][2] - Sora2 is described as a "GPT-3.5 moment for the video field," indicating its potential to revolutionize video content creation [2][3] Sora App Overview - Sora App focuses on "pure AI-generated content" and has quickly risen to the third position in the free app rankings in the U.S. App Store, indicating strong market interest [2] - The app features a TikTok-style interface but eliminates real human footage, relying solely on AI-generated materials [2] - There is a notable phenomenon of invitation code reselling in the domestic market, reflecting high demand [2] Sora2 Model Features - Sora2 has made significant advancements in accurately simulating physical movements and character performances, addressing limitations of previous AI video models [3] - It can realistically replicate complex movements, maintain scene continuity across multiple camera angles, and generate synchronized audio effects [3] - Current limitations include a fixed video length of 10 seconds, a resolution of only 360P, and challenges with complex scenes leading to facial blurriness and text generation errors [3] Social Interaction and User Engagement - Sora App aims to transform users from content consumers to creators through features like "Cameo" and "Remix," allowing for collaborative and creative engagement [4] - The "Cameo" feature enables users to create digital avatars for virtual performances, while "Remix" allows for secondary creation based on existing materials [4] - The app employs a non-addictive recommendation algorithm and includes parental controls to mitigate issues seen in traditional short video platforms [4]

Core Viewpoint - Southeast Asia is a priority direction for China's surrounding diplomacy and a key area for high-quality Belt and Road Initiative cooperation, with Indonesia being the largest economy in the region and a vital partner for trade and investment [1]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Relations - Southeast Asia has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, making it the preferred destination for Chinese enterprises looking to expand internationally [1]. - Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, possesses resource advantages, a solid manufacturing base, and a vast consumer market, positioning it as a hotspot for economic cooperation and industrial layout [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The upcoming forum titled "Exploring New Routes, Charting New Blueprints" organized by Guotai Junan Securities on October 16 aims to gather government and enterprise representatives, industry guests, and investment institutions to discuss opportunities and future directions in Indonesia [1].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][3]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand is showing a marginal increase with a week-on-week rise in apparent consumption of five major steel products to 8.7406 million tons, up by 237,300 tons. Inventory levels have decreased to 15.1061 million tons, down by 91,300 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills is at 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates have decreased to 60.26%, down by 1.28 percentage points [1]. - The industry has been experiencing losses since Q3 2022, with nearly 40% of steel companies still in the red. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [3]. Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar has decreased to 216.2 CNY, down by 18.1 CNY, while hot-rolled coil profit has increased to 172.2 CNY, up by 18.4 CNY. The overall profitability rate for 247 steel companies is at 58.01%, a decline of 0.86% [2]. - Expectations indicate that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a more relaxed market for iron ore prices, which may alleviate cost pressures for the steel industry [2]. Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to grow steadily. Steel exports have maintained year-on-year growth through August [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stability Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production cuts and the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting the expectation of supply-side contraction [3]. - The long-term trend in the steel industry is towards increased concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [3].

Core Insights - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the automotive industry, emphasizing the importance of humanoid robots in creating demand and identifying high-cost performance technology routes similar to lithium iron phosphate batteries in electric vehicles [1][2] - The domestic passenger car market faces increased competition as the effects of the vehicle replacement program diminish by 2025 [1] - The heavy-duty truck market has shown significant growth due to the vehicle replacement program initiated in May, with AIDC's diesel engine business driving industrial upgrades [1] - The growth potential in the auto parts industry is becoming scarce, with recommendations for companies that have significant room for product penetration and localization [1] Market Performance - In the week from September 19 to September 26, 2025, the Shenwan Automotive Index remained stable, while the New Energy Vehicle Index fell by 2%, the Automotive Parts Index was stable, and the Commercial Vehicle Index dropped by 3% [1] - Compared to the Wind All A Index, the Shenwan Automotive Index was stable, with the New Energy Vehicle Index underperforming by 2% and the Commercial Vehicle Index underperforming by 3% [1] Passenger Vehicle Market Data - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [2] - The cumulative retail sales of passenger vehicles for the year reached 15.955 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [2] - In the same period, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 697,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10% and an 11% increase compared to the previous month, with a market penetration rate of 58.5% [2] - The cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles for the year reached 8.267 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 24% [2] Humanoid Robots in Industry - The 2025 Shanghai Industrial Expo showcased several humanoid robot manufacturers, including Fourier and key component suppliers like Hammernaut, Huan Dong Technology, and Xinuo Future [2] - Shanghai Electric has achieved high-precision research and development of intelligent robots through multi-industry collaboration [2] - Xinuo Future is recognized as a core component supplier in the humanoid robot sector, possessing a complete production line from mechanical processing to assembly, demonstrating self-research and production capabilities across the entire chain [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid iteration, with a positive outlook for companies that exhibit innovation and cost advantages [2]

Market Performance - Global markets mostly declined last week, with MSCI Global down by 0.2%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 0.6% [1] - The US 10Y Treasury yield saw a significant increase, while silver prices surged and gold prices increased at a slower rate [1] - The dollar strengthened against the pound, yen, and renminbi, with defensive sectors like energy materials and utilities performing well [1] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume weakened globally, with a rebound in short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Major indices such as Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and Kospi 200 experienced a decline in trading volume [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong and US markets decreased but remained at historically high levels, while volatility decreased in Hong Kong and US markets but increased in European and Japanese markets [1] Earnings Expectations - Global stock market earnings expectations were generally revised downwards, with some markets seeing upward revisions in energy materials [2] - The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 2068 to 2063, while the S&P 500's EPS forecast was adjusted from 269 to 268 [2] - The Eurozone STOXX50's EPS forecast was also revised down from 337 to 333 [2] Economic Expectations - US economic expectations improved last week, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rising due to fluctuating Fed policy expectations and better-than-expected tech earnings [2] - Conversely, the European Economic Surprise Index declined, likely due to rising geopolitical risks and weak manufacturing data [2] - China's Economic Surprise Index also fell, impacted by uncertain real estate policy effects and fluctuating external demand data [2] Capital Flows - The divergence in Fed policy signals intensified market speculation, with futures markets indicating an expected 1.8 rate cuts by the Fed this year [3] - Global liquidity trends shifted towards easing, with significant capital inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea [3] - Hong Kong's stock connect and stable foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong market were noted [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and the significant investments being made in the sector, particularly in GPU technology and AI server capabilities, indicating a strong future growth trajectory for these areas [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Developments - Nvidia plans to gradually invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support data center infrastructure, with an initial deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of systems expected by the second half of 2026 [2]. - The approval of Moore Threads' IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to raise approximately 8 billion yuan for the development of self-controlled AI training and inference chips, as well as graphics chips [3]. - Alibaba Cloud launched the Panjiu 128 super-node AI server, which supports 128 AI computing chips and offers significant improvements in bandwidth and latency, enhancing inference performance by about 50% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Directions - The investment from major players like Nvidia is expected to extend the global AI infrastructure expansion cycle, increasing demand for high-end GPUs, advanced packaging, and cooling solutions [2]. - The focus of competition in the computing power supply is shifting towards optimizing interconnectivity, with an emphasis on achieving high bandwidth and energy efficiency in system designs [4]. - The commercialization of the MUSA architecture and developer ecosystem by domestic GPU manufacturers is entering a market validation phase, which could accelerate R&D investments and ecosystem development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant correction, but there is potential for stabilization and partial recovery in the near term, particularly in the fourth quarter, despite a generally weak long-term trend [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a comprehensive pullback, with notable declines in high-elasticity instruments such as 30-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds, alongside a deeper drop in credit bonds, particularly those heavily held by funds [1]. - Historical patterns suggest that the bond market typically exhibits a "weak first, strong later" trend in the fourth quarter, but the situation in 2025 may differ, with expectations of no new policies leading to a "not weak, not strong" scenario [1][2]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including liquidity injections and major banks actively purchasing bonds, indicate a supportive stance towards current bond market pricing [1]. Group 2: Fund and Credit Market Influences - The recent bond market correction is partly attributed to discussions surrounding the adjustment of fund fee rates, which has led to "preventive redemptions" affecting public funds [2]. - The potential impact of fund fee adjustments may not be as immediate as anticipated, with a transition period likely, and no significant redemption signs currently observed in bank wealth management products [2]. - Insurance funds are gradually showing interest in long-duration bonds, particularly as the market stabilizes, with a preference for stable coupon bonds despite a potential decrease in demand for ultra-long bonds in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a short-term stabilization phase, with previous negative factors already priced in, and a reduced likelihood of rapid declines [3]. - The outlook for October suggests a probable platform period for the bond market, with certain bond types, such as policy bank bonds and specific credit bonds, potentially experiencing recovery opportunities [3]. - Future attention should focus on the marginal changes in risk assets and allocation forces as the year-end approaches [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth potential in the humanoid robot industry and the automotive sector, highlighting investment opportunities in high-performance technologies and companies with inherent advantages [3][5]. Automotive Industry Summary - The investment strategy maintains an "overweight" rating for the automotive industry, focusing on high-cost performance technology routes similar to lithium iron phosphate batteries in new energy vehicles and companies with endogenous advantages like CATL [3]. - The domestic passenger car market faces increased competition as the effects of the vehicle replacement program diminish by 2025. Recommended companies include Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor with deep European layouts, and Jianghuai Automobile, which is expected to open up high-end models [3]. - The heavy truck market has shown significant growth due to the vehicle replacement program initiated in May, with AIDC's diesel engine business driving industrial upgrades [3]. - The growth potential in the auto parts industry is becoming scarce, with recommendations for steering system leaders and experienced brake system suppliers that have room for product penetration and localization [3]. Market Performance Summary - In the past week (September 19-26, 2025), the Shenwan Automotive Index remained stable, while the new energy vehicle index fell by 2%, and the commercial vehicle index dropped by 3% [4]. - For the month (August 27 - September 26, 2025), top-performing stocks included Tianpu Co., Haon Automotive, Kebo Da, Shanzi Co., and Junsheng Electronics, while the worst performers were Tenglong Co., Hunan Tianyan, Chuanhuan Technology, Construction Industry, and Zhongma Transmission [4]. - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from September 1-21, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a cumulative retail of 15.955 million units for the year, up 9% [4]. - In the new energy sector, retail sales from September 1-21, 2025, reached 697,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with a cumulative retail of 8.267 million units for the year, up 24% [4]. Humanoid Robot Industry Summary - The 2025 Shanghai Industrial Expo showcased several humanoid robot manufacturers and core component suppliers, including Fourier and Shanghai Electric, which leverage multi-industry collaboration for advanced smart robot development [5]. - Xinuo Future, a key supplier in the humanoid robot sector, possesses a complete production line from mechanical processing to assembly, demonstrating full-chain self-research and production capabilities in motors, controls, reducers, and algorithms [5]. - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid iteration, with a positive outlook for companies that exhibit innovation and cost advantages [5].