Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth remains constrained, but improvements in emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors are becoming increasingly evident [3] Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2, the economy is characterized by "volume increase and weak prices," with improvements in exports and consumption but insufficient investment momentum [3] - As of July 16, 1531 companies have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts, with a positive forecast rate of 43.7%, lower than the past three years [3] - Estimated profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in the first half of the year is 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The growth of new and old economies is increasingly divergent, with mid and downstream sectors performing better than upstream, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing [3] - Industries such as technology hardware, resource products, and non-bank financials are experiencing rapid profit growth, with sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture showing high growth forecasts [3] - Conversely, the real estate sector and consumer durables like automobiles and furniture are experiencing weaker growth [3] Group 3: Industrial Challenges - Industrial enterprises are facing challenges, with accounts receivable turnover declining and inventory turnover showing little improvement, indicating ongoing operational difficulties [4] - The overall gross profit margin for industrial enterprises is decreasing, leading to actual profits being weaker than reported profits [4] - Industries with noticeable improvements in turnover include military, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [4] Group 4: Emerging Technologies - Emerging technologies are the main area of improvement, particularly in globally competitive sectors where performance is accelerating due to domestic demand and export growth [5] - Industries benefiting from this trend include military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and media gaming, while AI capital expenditure is facing uncertainties [5] Group 5: Cyclical and Financial Sector Improvements - Certain cyclical products, such as rare earths and small metals, are seeing price increases, while sectors like steel and building materials are showing signs of performance improvement [6] - Non-bank financials are benefiting from capital market improvements, with active trading levels and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates contributing to high growth in brokerage and insurance sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that convertible bonds with positive performance in Q2 2025 will be concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors such as communication, electronics, military, automotive parts, transportation equipment, industrial control equipment, energy equipment, and electric power equipment, as well as in non-ferrous and basic chemical industries benefiting from price increases [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance Insights - The profit growth in the non-ferrous metal mining industry is expected to reach 41.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices and increased production and sales of metals like gold, copper, zinc, and silver [2]. - The railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors are projected to see a profit increase of 56% year-on-year, benefiting from global shipping recovery and significant orders for LNG carriers and container ships [2]. - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors, along with electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing, are expected to maintain double-digit profit growth due to high demand for AI hardware, smart terminals, and industrial control equipment [2]. - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry is anticipated to experience a profit growth rate of 38.2%, primarily due to the demand for high-value-added products like prepared dishes and health foods [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies that have disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, 272 companies are expected to achieve a non-net profit growth of over 30% in Q2 2025, mainly in the basic chemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, machinery, electronics, and automotive sectors [3]. - In the basic chemicals sector, companies are expected to benefit from price increases in phosphates, pesticides, and refrigerants [3]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector's high-performing companies are expected to benefit from increased overseas photovoltaic storage orders, domestic ultra-high voltage and smart grid construction, and rising domestic orders for new energy vehicles and military products [3]. - The machinery sector's growth is driven by high demand for industrial mother machines, semiconductor equipment, energy equipment, shipbuilding, and rail transit equipment [3]. - The electronics sector's growth is attributed to increased investment in AI computing power, accelerated domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, and growth in consumer electronics and smart terminal shipments [3]. - The automotive sector is expected to see high growth due to increased sales of domestic new energy vehicles and accelerated exports of commercial vehicles and automotive parts [3]. Group 3: Performance Forecast Adjustments - A list of 13 convertible bond targets has been identified, which have seen their average net profit forecasts raised by over 5% in the past three months, with more than three forecasting institutions involved, indicating potential marginal improvements in performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the future policy direction for the real estate sector will focus on achieving the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, with a shift in housing policy from quantity to quality and exploring stock opportunities on the supply side to stabilize quality blue-chip companies and maintain the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The central urban work conference highlighted that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with urban development shifting from large-scale expansion to improving the quality and efficiency of existing stock [2]. - The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work, which align with the top-level design addressing "urban diseases" discussed in the 2015 urban work conference [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, anticipating that the fourth quarter of this year will face high baseline challenges. It is expected that policies will focus on storage and urban renewal in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and strive to achieve the goal of stabilization [1]. - A significant gap of 236 million square meters exists between sales and completions in 2024, indicating a potential recovery in completions in the second half of the year [1]. Focus Areas - The conference emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, which includes enhancing quality in new projects and updating existing stock [3]. - The topic of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation was reiterated, with expectations for increased project volume by 2025 and a focus on the pace of issuing policy-supported loans (PSL) [3]. - National land storage plans for the first half of 2025 are projected to reach 475.9 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is only 96.1 billion yuan, indicating a need for accelerated issuance by local governments [3].

Group 1: Furniture Industry - The furniture industry is experiencing a recovery supported by the demand from the existing housing market and the ongoing "old-for-new" national subsidy policy [1] - Leading companies possess comprehensive channel layouts, stronger brand power, and mature marketing systems, while smaller firms may face "traffic bottlenecks," amplifying the advantages of top players [1] Group 2: Personal Care Industry - The demand in the personal care sector is relatively inelastic, with companies focusing on product innovation and precise consumer targeting, while the integration of online and offline channels is becoming a trend [1] Group 3: Export Chain - Starting from Q4 2024, the performance of the export chain will be affected by a weakening low base effect, with internal growth becoming more significant, depending on downstream industry demand and the company's efforts in category, channel, and customer expansion [1] - Increased tariff disruptions are expected, benefiting companies with overseas production capacity, leading to further excess revenue performance [1] Group 4: Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is being intensified, and major automotive companies are set to launch significant new products in early 2025, with inventory replenishment at the channel level to meet peak season demand, resulting in an upward trend in performance [1] - In the medium to long term, the competitive advantages of leading brands are expected to expand due to new national standards and manufacturing capacity constraints, leading to a continued concentration in the market [1] Group 5: Millet and Stationery - The millet market has a broad outlook, with traditional stationery moving towards cultural and creative products, while the pan-entertainment toy market is expected to grow faster due to its entertainment and interactivity [2] Group 6: Smart Glasses - The smart glasses industry is witnessing an explosion in trends, with major manufacturers accelerating the integration of products with AI models, and the first generation of products has been released, with others expected to launch by 2025 [2] Group 7: Paper Industry - A turning point in cost has been confirmed, with a positive outlook for the profitability of specialty paper compared to bulk paper, as profitability is expected to improve starting Q4 2024 [2] - Price increases for paper are anticipated, with pulp prices peaking in Q1 2025, leading to improved profit margins [2] Group 8: Packaging Industry - The packaging industry is currently stable, with an expected improvement in profitability driven by optimized market structure, as capital expenditure is slowing down and companies focus on efficiency and shareholder returns [2] - As the industry enters a competitive phase in the existing market, mergers and acquisitions among leading companies are accelerating, which may lead to an upward shift in the overall profitability of the industry [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6% [1] - Core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations [1] - The increase in energy prices is identified as the main driver behind the rise in inflation for June [1] Tariff Impact - The article notes that the impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to manifest, although the overall effect remains moderate [1] - Specific categories such as clothing, furniture, sports equipment, and audio-visual products showed significant month-on-month price increases, while the inflation for automobiles and pharmaceuticals remained weak [1] Core Services - In June, inflation in core services, particularly in medical and transportation services, showed strong performance, with a notable increase in airfares [2] - The housing component saw a slight decrease in month-on-month growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, while rent inflation remained stable [2] Outlook - The article suggests that inflation is expected to rise moderately, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] - It is indicated that the current price reductions by exporters are not yet significant, and the tariff costs are mainly borne by U.S. importers [2] - As existing inventories are gradually consumed, the pressure from tariffs is anticipated to shift from importers to consumers, potentially leading to further increases in CPI in July [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global tin market is experiencing a decline in ore grade and rising cost levels, while macroeconomic conditions are improving and demand expectations are positive, leading to a tightening supply situation that enhances the pricing power of mining companies. The central price of tin is expected to rise, suggesting investment in leading companies with quality resources [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Global tin ore grades are declining, and the cost structure is shifting upwards. According to ITA, the complete cost of tin mining was approximately $25,581 per ton in 2022 and is projected to rise to $33,800 per ton by 2027. The recovery of mines in Myanmar is slow due to a 30% export tax on tin, and political instability in parts of Africa and South America may further disrupt supply. Overall, global tin production is expected to reach 300,000 tons by 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, while total supply is projected at 380,000 tons, also a 2% increase [2][3]. Demand Trends - The downstream sector, particularly tin solder, which accounts for about 56% of consumption, is expected to see increased demand due to advancements in AI and the recovery of consumer electronics. The global semiconductor cycle is stabilizing, which will likely boost solder demand. Additionally, the photovoltaic sector's impact on overall tin demand is limited, as it only represents about 20% of solder production. A projected supply gap of 8,300 tons in refined tin by 2025 highlights the growing supply-demand imbalance [3]. Macroeconomic Environment - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, with the U.S. PCE inflation rate recorded at 2.34% in May 2025, moving closer to the 2% target. Although employment data shows some risks, market expectations suggest potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which would benefit asset prices. The overall liquidity in the market is expected to improve, positively influencing raw material prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of the Sci-Tech bond market is expected to continue, driven by policy incentives and the introduction of new financial products like the Sci-Tech bond ETFs, which will enhance the market's ability to support technological innovation [4][7][28]. Group 1: Development Stages of Sci-Tech Bonds - The development of the Sci-Tech bond market has gone through three main stages: 1) The Double Innovation Bond stage (2015-2021), 2) The Sci-Tech Bond stage (2022-2025), and 3) The Debt Market Sci-Tech Board stage (from May 2025) [4][9][18]. - The cumulative issuance of new Sci-Tech bonds has exceeded 585 billion yuan as of June 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of the expected total issuance for 2024 [4][19]. - The current Sci-Tech bond stage (3.0) is characterized by a policy shift that enhances market access and credit quality, with a significant increase in the issuance of bonds from private enterprises [4][21]. Group 2: Introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech bond ETFs was successfully raised, with a total initial funding of approximately 29 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [5][28]. - These ETFs track high-rated public Sci-Tech bonds and are expected to enhance the liquidity and attractiveness of the bond market [5][29]. - The average duration of the indices tracked by these ETFs is around 3.75 to 3.81 years, with a total sample bond balance exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5][30]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The short-term market dynamics, including a "抢券" (coupon-snatching) phenomenon, are favorable for the issuance and expansion of these products, while long-term growth will depend on sustained policy support [7][51]. - The proportion of private enterprises in the newly issued Sci-Tech bonds has increased to 9.2%, up from 3.7% in previous issuances, reflecting a positive trend towards diversification in the bond market [21][26]. - The average remaining maturity of newly issued Sci-Tech bonds is concentrated in the short to medium term, with about 60% having a remaining term of 1-3 years [26][35].

Group 1: Key Points on Sci-Tech Bonds ETF - The development of the sci-tech bond market has gone through three stages, with significant growth in issuance since the new policy was introduced in May 2025, reaching over 585 billion yuan by June 2025, which is nearly 50% of the total expected issuance for 2024 [1] - The first batch of 10 sci-tech bond ETFs was completed on July 7, 2025, tracking high-rated public technology innovation company bonds, with a total sample bond balance exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - The introduction of sci-tech bond ETFs is expected to enhance the risk-return profile of investment portfolios, as the passive investment trend in the domestic bond market continues to grow [3] Group 2: Key Points on Tin Industry - The price of tin is expected to rise due to limited supply and increasing production costs, with global tin mine costs projected to increase from approximately 25,581 USD/ton in 2022 to 33,800 USD/ton by 2027 [7] - Demand for tin is anticipated to remain strong, driven by the growth in AI applications and the recovery of consumer electronics, with a projected global refined tin supply deficit of 8,300 tons in 2025 [8] - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, which is favorable for tin prices, as market expectations suggest potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9] Group 3: Key Points on Home Furnishing Industry - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 46.6%, driven by brand and channel expansion [12] - Continuous investment in R&D and product optimization has led to an improvement in overall gross margin, enhancing profitability [12] - The company has managed to maintain strong operational quality despite external challenges, indicating robust core business performance [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article maintains a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a standard allocation in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][2]. - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and the resilience of the US economy, leading to strong performance in risk assets like equities and commodities, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold faced pressure [1][2]. - Trump's announcement of new tariffs may temporarily disrupt market risk appetite, increasing geopolitical uncertainty, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief impact [1][2]. Group 2 - The market is still in the process of repricing US Treasuries based on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which involves significant fiscal spending increases and may lead to a substantial expansion of the federal deficit [2]. - The article expresses optimism towards Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [2]. - Despite short-term pressure on gold from risk appetite fluctuations, global macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support its allocation value [2].

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