国泰海通证券研究

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议程表|“潮起东方,新质领航”国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-23 13:05
更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...
国泰海通|化妆品:功效保健品的机遇
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-23 13:05
Core Viewpoint - The health supplement industry is poised for transformation and new opportunities driven by new channels and customer segments, with a focus on brands that excel in product innovation and operational strength [1][2]. Market Overview - The nutrition and health market in China is projected to reach CNY 399.8 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3%. Key segments include OTC, sports nutrition, vitamins, and dietary supplements, with market sizes of CNY 144.1 billion, CNY 6.3 billion, CNY 232.3 billion, and CNY 17.2 billion respectively, showing growth rates of 1%, 7%, 4%, and a decline of 1% [2]. - Per capita consumption in the sports nutrition, dietary supplements, and weight management markets is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating room for growth [2]. Segment Analysis - Fish Oil: Expected market size of CNY 5.6 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 16% from 2020 to 2024, driven by demand from younger demographics and applications in anti-inflammation and beauty [3]. - Coenzyme Q10: Anticipated market size of CNY 4.1 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 45% from 2020 to 2024, fueled by increased heart health awareness post-pandemic and women's health needs [3]. - Probiotics: Projected market size of CNY 13.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 21% from 2020 to 2024, focusing on gut health and weight management [3]. - Oral Beauty Ingredients: The collagen market is thriving, with new anti-aging ingredients like ergothioneine, NR, and PQQ gaining traction, emphasizing the importance of ingredient innovation for brand differentiation [3]. - Basic Nutrients: Market sizes for vitamins, minerals, and proteins are expected to be CNY 32.9 billion, CNY 27.1 billion, and CNY 11.6 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 3%, 5%, and 1% respectively [3]. Industry Trends - The rise of new channels, particularly Douyin, is expected to drive functional demand in the health supplement industry, with a reported GMV growth of 44% in 2024. This shift is likely to attract younger consumers and create opportunities for new brands and product categories [4]. - The industry is undergoing a transformation with new customer education and demand for functional ingredients, supported by cross-border e-commerce and advancements in synthetic biology [4].
分论坛:私募基金|国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-23 01:59
更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...
国泰海通|房地产:小幅调降LPR,呵护市场回暖趋势
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
报告导读: 央行推动LPR下降10个基点,引导贷款利率下行。这将降低开发商融资成本 并减少购房者的房贷压力,促使后续房产销售回升。维持行业"增持"评级。 本文摘自:2025年5月21日发布的 小幅调降LPR,呵护市场回暖趋势 涂力磊 ,资格证书编号: S0880525040101 谢皓宇 ,资格证书编号: S0880518010002 谢 盐 ,资格证书编号: S0880525040098 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 投资建议:央行推动 1 年期和 5 年期以上 LPR 下降 10 个基点,引导贷款利率下行。 我们认为,这将 有助于引导包括开发商在内的社会融资成本下行,并将有利于减少购房者承担的房贷利率和财务压力,促 使后 ...
国泰海通|固收:存款利率调降,资金未必出表
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction in deposit interest rates is low under the trend of low interest rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Scale and Interest Rate Sensitivity - The deposit scale is not sensitive to the reduction in non-interbank deposit rates, primarily due to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which caused a short-term outflow of deposits to asset management products [2] - Despite several rounds of deposit rate cuts since 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of personal and corporate deposits has aligned with the growth rate of broad money supply, with the proportion of deposits in broad money supply rising from around 48% to a peak of 52% by March 2024 [2][3] - The proportion of deposits in low-risk preference funds has shown a slight decline from a peak of 79.3% in March 2023, indicating manageable outflow pressure [2] Group 2: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts - The disturbances caused by deposit rate cuts on fund outflows were not significant before 2024, but became more pronounced afterward due to increased price comparison willingness in a low-interest environment [3] - Following the deposit rate cuts in July and October 2024, there was a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, indicating a shift towards asset management products [3][4] - The current round of deposit rate cuts is not expected to lead to a significant tightening of the funding environment, as the year-on-year growth of deposits has remained stable despite the cuts [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The attractiveness of asset management products relative to deposits is expected to decrease due to the ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks and the gradual implementation of net value rectification [4] - The company anticipates that the ticket interest strategy will continue to prevail, with high-grade short-duration credit bonds likely to benefit from some funds flowing from deposits to asset management products [4]
分论坛:理财子|国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...
国泰海通|传媒:腾讯混元游戏发布,看好AI的游戏领域应用
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The launch of Tencent's Hunyuan Game visual generation platform marks a significant advancement in the application of AI within the gaming industry, potentially transforming production paradigms and promoting diversified development in the sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Features - The Hunyuan Game platform enhances industrial-level content production efficiency by up to several dozen times. Key features include: 1. AI Art Pipeline: Integrates multiple AI tools to streamline the workflow from inspiration to concept sketches and standard character views [2]. 2. Real-time Canvas: Allows designers to quickly generate and adjust concept designs through hand-drawn sketches, enabling a "draw and see" approach [2]. 3. AI 2D Art Generation: Understands various gaming terms and concepts to accurately reproduce creative ideas [2]. 4. Professional Character Multi-view Generation: Can create standard three-view and 360° rotation videos from a single character artwork, reducing the time from 12 hours to between a few minutes and 30 minutes, achieving a 300% efficiency increase for art teams [2]. Model Overview - Hunyuan Game is positioned as the first industrial-grade content asset generation model in the AIGC series, comprising four major game image models and five visual models. The game image models include: 1. Game Raw Image Model Base 2. Special Effects Generation Model 3. Transparent Image Generation Model 4. Character Original Artwork Generation Model - The special effects generation model is the first in the industry to meet top game standards, covering 17 types of effects and five major styles [3]. - The five video models include: 1. Image-to-Video Base Model (I2V) 2. Character Multi-view Model 3. Character Dynamic Illustration Model 4. Game Video Super-resolution Model 5. Real-time Interactive Model, which enables the interactive generation of dynamic content for game production videos [3]. Investment Outlook - The continuous development of AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency in the gaming and content production industries, leading to a flourishing of content creation. The company maintains a "buy" rating for the cultural dissemination sector [3].
国泰海通 · 晨报0523|金工:从涨停板、"打板策略"到赚钱效应引发的情绪择时指标
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a sentiment timing model based on the analysis of limit-up stocks, "board strategies," and the profit effect, which successfully predicts short-term market sentiment changes [1]. Group 1: Sentiment Timing Model Construction - The annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio is 6.65% with a volatility of 15.37% and a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [2]. - The model also performs well when applied to broad indices such as the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Improvements to the Model - Improvement 1: By incorporating market trend judgments, the annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio increases to 9.41%, with a volatility of 17.98% and a maximum drawdown of 46.35% [3]. - Improvement 2: After applying factor weighting to different sentiment indicators, the annualized return reaches 9.68%, with a reduced volatility of 13.31% and a maximum drawdown of 24.47% [4].
线上交流合集|“潮起东方,新质领航”国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 13:10
本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...
就在今天|国泰海通证券创新药械沙龙·深圳场
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-22 08:56
更多国泰海通研究和服务 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...