Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in Q2, with a projected 7% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and stable domestic ticket prices [1][3][4] - The summer travel season is anticipated to reach its first peak, driven by school holidays, leading to an optimistic supply-demand outlook and an expected rise in both passenger load factor and ticket prices [1][4] - The decline in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year in July is expected to positively impact profitability during the summer travel period, as the industry enters a low supply growth era [1][3] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - OPEC+ is set to continue increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, which is expected to gradually reflect in the oil shipping demand and performance in the second half of the year [2][4] - The average TCE for VLCC in Q2 is estimated at $42,000, showing a significant improvement compared to Q1, indicating a recovery in the oil shipping sector [3][4] - The oil shipping industry is expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand and improved market conditions, alongside the potential for lower oil prices [2][4] Group 3: Highway Transportation - The highway transportation sector is projected to maintain resilient traffic demand, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in passenger flow and a 2.9% increase in freight volume observed in April and May [3][4] - The ongoing optimization of debt and reduction in financial costs are expected to support steady growth in the performance of highway companies [3][4]

报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计 未来 3 个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 煤价继续回升， " 反内卷 " 下行业供给逻辑有望持续改善。 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委会议进一步明 确"反内卷"，要求"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 我们认为"反内卷"有望进一步改善煤炭行业供给结构，叠加当下行业供给和需求双双好转，有望带动煤炭 价格加速回升，改善行业供需格局。 1 ）需求来看， 2025 年 1-4 月，全社会用电量增速仅 3.1% ，大 幅度低于 2024 年的 6.8% ，同时新能源大幅装机也继续倒逼火电，导致 1-4 月火电发电量同比下降 4.1% 。但从 5 月开始，伴随天气的快速转热，全社会用电量增速也提升至 4.4% ，带动火电发电量已经 由负转正至 1.2% 。我们认为随着 6 月底华东区域全面出梅，全国将正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显 示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求日耗有望至少较当前抬升，需求端有望呈现稳中有升的局面。 2 ）供给来看， 5 月全国原煤产量 4 亿吨， 4 月开始全国产量 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act passed in the U.S. Congress will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to a significant surge in U.S. Treasury bond issuance, creating historical supply challenges for the market [3] - The act proposes a $4 trillion tax cut and a reduction of at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will result in an additional $2.8 trillion deficit over the same period [3][4] - Historical data shows that the U.S. has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the so-called "debt crisis" is primarily a political tool rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [4][6] Group 2 - The recent increase in the debt ceiling alleviates short-term default risks but introduces significant supply-side shocks to the Treasury market, with upward pressure on short-term Treasury yields [5] - The upcoming peak in Treasury maturities in 2025, combined with a growing fiscal deficit, will necessitate increased Treasury issuance, which is expected to drive up yields, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [5][6] - The long-term risks associated with deferred debt issues include rising interest rates, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and increased market risk premiums, which could spill over into the global financial market [6] Group 3 - The electricity market is experiencing upward pressure on prices, with expectations that electricity price increases may outpace coal price rises due to extreme weather conditions and increased demand for thermal power generation [11][12] - The national electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, with significant contributions from air conditioning loads, indicating a robust demand environment [12] - The introduction of new high-voltage direct current projects aims to enhance electricity supply and optimize pricing structures, reflecting a strategic shift in energy management [13]

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat has shown signs of recovery, with strong performance in electronic cloth and anti-involution themes, while PCB and performance pre-increase themes remain robust. Attention should be paid to technology and supply-demand improvement directions [1] Group 1: Trading Heat Recovery - The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 507 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.63%. Since June, the overall trading heat of themes has rebounded [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with solid-state batteries and cross-border payment themes experiencing pullbacks, while anti-involution related sectors such as steel and photovoltaics lead the gains [1] - Bank stocks have seen net inflows, while themes related to losses and small-cap stocks have experienced significant net outflows [1] Group 2: Theme Summaries Theme 1: Production Restriction and Price Stabilization - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant increase in capacity and installation, but prices have dropped sharply. Steel prices and raw material prices have weakened due to severe supply-demand imbalances [2] - Recommendations include focusing on the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, as well as sectors like steel and pig farming where supply-side improvement expectations are rising [2] Theme 2: Low-altitude Economy - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on planning, airworthiness certification, market regulation, and flight operation supervision [2] - The establishment of non-restricted airspace opens physical space for low-altitude economic development, while accelerated airworthiness certification enhances operational space [2] - Recommendations include companies involved in core components of low-altitude flying vehicles and those providing low-altitude services such as air traffic management and infrastructure [2] Theme 3: AI New Infrastructure - Overseas cloud computing leaders have revised their capital expenditure expectations upward, while domestic intelligent computing center investments continue to progress [3] - Microsoft reported a revenue of 70.1 billion USD and a net profit of 25.82 billion USD for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Azure cloud business growth rate is expected to reach 34%-35% [3] - Recommendations include companies benefiting from increased capital expenditure expectations of overseas cloud vendors and those in the domestic computing industry chain [3] Theme 4: Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee highlighted the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the enhancement of independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [3] - The marine production value exceeds 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP. Marine ship engineering, marine equipment, marine power, and marine tourism are leading in growth [3] - Recommendations include investments in offshore wind power, oil and gas extraction, and communication power infrastructure, as well as high-end marine equipment and deep-sea detection equipment [3]

Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion, driven by technological breakthroughs and profitability improvements, leading to a reassessment of value [1] - Wan'an Robotics focuses on AI embodied robots, achieving a global market share of 11.9%, with over 57% in the Japanese market; Cloudwise Technology leads globally in the number of online service robots in hotels [1] - Geekplus has maintained its position as the global leader in warehouse AMR for six consecutive years, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas; companies with core technology, global layout, and improving profitability are expected to see value reassessment [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and BYD advancing pilot lines and sample validations, with some achieving semi-solid mass production [2] - Full solid-state small batch production is expected to begin between 2025 and 2027; the equipment segment is likely to benefit first from this industrialization process [2] - Leading equipment manufacturers are accelerating product validation and customer onboarding, with companies like Xianlead Smart and Winbond Technology providing comprehensive solutions for key processes [2] Group 3: Other Key Sectors - The forklift sector is benefiting from the rapid development of embodied intelligence, with domestic and international forklift companies, e-commerce logistics firms, and robotics companies making strides in intelligent logistics [3] - The export chain is seeing advantages due to the implementation of Vietnam's tariff policy, which enhances regional manufacturing cost differentials, allowing companies with global capacity and brand channel capabilities to improve profitability and market share [3] - The 3C equipment sector is expected to benefit in the short term from innovations in Apple's hardware products, and in the medium term from supply chain security issues driving new capacity in Southeast Asia [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing positive policy signals aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing issues of overcapacity and disorderly competition [1] Group 1: Policy Signals - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [1] - Leading photovoltaic glass companies have announced a 30% production cut starting in July to alleviate structural pressures in the industry [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting with key manufacturing enterprises to emphasize product quality and enhance industrial structure efficiency [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The average price of polysilicon dense material remains stable at 35.0 yuan/kg, while N-type 182 and 210 silicon wafer prices decreased by 0.020 yuan/W and 0.050 yuan/W respectively [2] - PERC battery prices remained stable at 0.035 USD/W, while TOPCON battery prices decreased by 0.015 yuan/W [2] - The average price of double-glass HJT components is 0.83 yuan/W, with no significant changes in other component prices [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector's performance from June 27 to July 4 showed a 0.79% change, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the photovoltaic sector has a cumulative change of -3.87%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 8.70 percentage points [3] - As of July 4, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 18.95 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [3]

报告导读： 近期AI伴侣EVE火爆出圈，该产品可以通过语音、视频交流互动，并通过给客 户点奶茶等方式，实现更为深度和真实的虚拟陪伴体验，我们认为随着大模型的功能不断 进步，调用成本不断下降，AI应用有望迎来突破。 本周传媒（申万）指数上涨2.70%，位居31个行业第6名，强于沪深300（上涨1.54%）、上证指数（上涨 1.40%）、上证中小（上涨1.43%）、深证成指（上涨1.25%）、创业板指（上涨1.50%）。细分板块龙头 景气持续，建议布局垂直细分领域业绩有望持续高增的投资机会。 AI大模型持续进步，应用端有望迎来突破。 2023年以来国内AI大模型发展迅速，百度、字节、腾讯、华 为等大厂，以及百川智能、月之暗面等创新企业纷纷发布自身的大模型产品，国内大模型进入高速发展 期。我们认为2024年以来Kimi、豆包等大模型逐步出圈，并带来用户使用习惯的养成，2025年以来随着 DeepSeek-R1等模型的发布，性能更强，但成本更低，有望带来下游更为广泛的应用落地和商业化机会。 目前DeepSeek、豆包、元宝、通义千问等大模型用户数均在快速增长，并通过问答互动的方式，逐步取代 传统搜索，成为AI时代新的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new business rules aims to better meet the development and scale expansion needs of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), enhancing its global influence and supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event - On July 4, the People's Bank of China released a notice for public consultation on the draft business rules for the CIPS [2]. - The CIPS is a wholesale payment system specifically for Renminbi cross-border payment and clearing, providing secure, efficient, convenient, and low-cost fund clearing services [2]. Business Rule Changes - The number of financial institutions participating in CIPS has grown from over a hundred in its early days to over a thousand by May 2025, necessitating updates to the original rules [2]. - The original rules were too detailed and restrictive, particularly regarding account management and fund settlement, which limited flexibility for technological upgrades and business innovation [2]. Participant Admission and Custodian Bank Requirements - The new rules relax the admission criteria for direct participants, removing specific requirements and allowing the operating institution to adjust participant management dynamically [3]. - The custodian bank requirement has been broadened from "domestic banks" to "qualified direct participants" [3]. - The detailed operational steps for fund injection have been simplified, retaining only the principle of liquidity management for direct participants [3]. Impact on CIPS and Renminbi Internationalization - The policy adjustments are expected to enhance CIPS's global influence and facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi by attracting more participants and providing a more efficient cross-border settlement option [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy is entering a practical implementation phase, with risks gradually being released. The acceleration of AI development and the emergence of product innovations in 2026 will significantly benefit the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Trade Agreements - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, effective from July 2, imposes a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam, with transshipped goods facing a 40% tariff. Conversely, Vietnam applies a 0% tariff on US goods. The ongoing Section 232 investigation into semiconductors and electronic products is expected to conclude within 270 days, with the President having 90 days to decide on potential actions [2]. - The easing of tensions between the US and China, highlighted by the recent lifting of restrictions on EDA exports to China, suggests that the negative impact of tariff negotiations on the supply chain will gradually diminish [2]. Group 2: AI Development and Product Innovations - Apple is actively seeking external collaborations to enhance its AI capabilities, particularly in improving Siri through technologies from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. This indicates a potential acceleration in the deployment of Apple's system-level AI [2]. - In 2026, Apple is expected to introduce products featuring 2nm chips, enhancing computational speed, and a new cooling system utilizing steel and copper. Additionally, the first foldable screen product is anticipated to be launched, showcasing advanced industrial design with features such as no creases, ultra-thinness, and high durability, which could lead to a significant increase in shipment volumes over the years [3].

报告导读： 中央财经委会议推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争，支持海洋 经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设，推荐建筑板块龙头和海洋经济标的。 政策推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争。 (1)7月1日中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出。(2)当前国内基建市场较为饱和，存在部分低价竞争现象，政策支持治理低价 无须竞争提升产品品质，有利于建筑头部企业凭借技术优势提升利润空间，同时产业链受益也利好建筑板 块发展。 政策支持海洋经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设。 (1)中央财经委会议指出，推动海洋经济高 质量发展，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济。要做强做优 做大海洋产业，推动海上风电规范有序建设。(2)推荐世界最大港口设计及建设企业，布局新建深海原创技 术策源地。推荐具有新型岸桥等港口产品，海上风电业务包括风机塔筒的制造及安装等。推荐海上综合能 源一体化业务模式，建设运营海上风电等大数据平台。推荐加快构建海上风电、数字建造、新型储能 ...