周二，现货白银首次突破70美元/盎司，日内最高涨近3.7%，现货黄金盘中逼近4500美元、涨超1%。在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美联储进 一步降息的预期推动下，今年以来，金价累涨超过三分之二，银价年内涨约140%，涨势更为凌厉。 在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美国可能进一步降息的预期推动下，黄金和白银价格双双上涨，刷新历史新高。 纽约时间周二，现货白银日内最高涨幅3.7%，最高达到每盎司71.58美元，创历史新高，这也是白银首次突破每盎司70美元。 黄金差一点就突破每盎司4500美元，最高至4499.85美元，创下历史新高，日内涨幅最高达1.27%。铂金和钯金价格也同步上涨。 交易员押注，美联储在已经连续三次降息之后，明年还将再次降息，这将对不产生利息收益的贵金属形成利好。 ETF的强劲买盘是推动金价大幅上涨的主要动力之一。今年以来，全球最大贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust持仓量已增长超过 五分之一。 Muthoot Fincorp首席经济学家表示，过去几个月黄金ETF的资金流入，主要来自散户投资者，而非机构投资者。他指出，由于散户资金黏性较 低，价格波动性仍将维持在较高水平。 此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re-evaluating the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% once inflation steadily declines to this level, suggesting a potential range adjustment to 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% [1][3][4] Group 1 - Bessent acknowledges the public's concern over living costs, attributing the high prices to the Biden administration [1][7] - He emphasizes that discussions about adjusting the inflation target should only occur after achieving and maintaining the 2% target, as changing the target prematurely could imply a tendency to "loosen" the target whenever inflation exceeds a certain level [4][6] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7% for November, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% over the past 12 months [4][6] Group 2 - Bessent highlights the pressure faced by American households regarding affordability, a sentiment reflected in the recent election outcomes [6][7] - He notes that while some prices, including energy, have risen, there are observable trends indicating a decline in prices, particularly in rent, which had previously surged due to increased illegal immigration [7]

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that the AI supercycle will continue until 2026, but warns that the risk-reward balance is becoming less favorable [1][2] Group 1: AI Supercycle and Market Dynamics - The costs associated with OpenAI are expected to become apparent in the second half of 2026, leading to increased market volatility due to rising concerns over debt financing for AI development [2] - Citi remains optimistic about companies in the AI ecosystem, particularly Nvidia (NVDA.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US) [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Insights - The biggest positive surprise is anticipated from the analog chip sector, which is expected to improve in 2026 due to low inventory levels, slow supply growth, and depressed profit margins [2] - Microchip Technology (MCHP.US) is highlighted as a preferred stock, with significant potential for upward revisions in sales and profit margins [2] - Other stocks rated as "buy" include Broadcom, Micron Technology, Texas Instruments (TXN.US), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US), and Analog Devices (ADI.US) [2] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Citi projects that Microchip Technology's earnings per share (EPS) will increase more than fourfold, from $0.24 in Q3 2025 to an expected $1.33 in Q4 2027 [3] - Texas Instruments' EPS is expected to grow by 77%, from $1.20 in Q1 2026 to an anticipated $2.12 in Q3 2027 [4] Group 4: Competitive Analysis - Citi expresses a preference for Synopsys (SNPS.US) over Cadence Design Systems (CDNS.US), citing Synopsys' stronger potential for operating margin expansion due to cost-cutting measures and a higher proportion of software business [4]

周二，Baird分析师Colin Sebastian将Meta目标价从820美元小幅下调至815美元，但重申对该股的"跑赢大盘"(Outperform)评级，并表示当 前或是"择机买入"的时点。以周一收盘价661.5美元计算，其最新目标价仍意味着约23%的上涨空间。 尽管近期市场情绪承压，Baird分析师仍看好Meta Platforms(META.US)的中长期表现，认为人工智能(AI)推进与变现机会将为股价提供进一步上行空间。 Sebastian指出，Meta多空博弈仍在持续，短期情绪可能面临进一步波动，但与三个月前相比，市场对公司的隐含预期已更趋平衡，投资者可 把握阶段性回调进行布局。 不过，Sebastian对明年走势更为乐观。他看好Meta即将推出的新一代AI模型，认为有望提升公司AI能力；在收入端，广告业务仍具增长潜 力，AI将提升广告相关性，且包括WhatsApp在内的平台首次引入广告，为变现打开新空间。 Sebastian表示："我们认为，围绕Meta的分歧情绪可能延续至2026年初，尤其是对中长期利润率路径仍存疑问。但当前市场的负面倾向或已 略显过度，明年随着叙事改善，股价有望再度转向积极。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent occurrence of a "golden cross" signal for the US dollar index on December 19, which historically indicates a strengthening of the dollar. This is the 39th occurrence of such a signal, with a notable historical context that suggests a high probability of dollar appreciation in the coming months [1][2][9]. Group 1: Golden Cross Signal Analysis - The dollar index (DXY) experienced a golden cross on December 19, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend [7]. - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the dollar index has a 68-79% probability of rising within 20-60 trading days, with an average increase of approximately 1.22% [2][9]. - This specific golden cross is particularly rare, being the 16th occurrence since 1970 when the 200-day moving average was declining, which historically correlates with an 80% probability of dollar appreciation [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Other Asset Classes - The S&P 500 index typically shows mixed performance in the initial phase after a golden cross, but tends to strengthen after 35 trading days, especially when the 200-day moving average is declining [6][14]. - The oil market reacts positively to the golden cross signal, with a 100% probability of price increases within 35 trading days following the signal, averaging a rise of 9.07% [6][14]. - In contrast, gold and 10-year Treasury yields exhibit a neutral response to the dollar's golden cross, with approximately 50% probability of price increases, indicating a lack of clear trend preference [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that after two consecutive years of gains, the Chinese stock market is poised for a "slow bull" market driven by profit growth taking over from valuation recovery [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The report identifies ten core trends for the Chinese stock market in 2025, highlighting that the market is transitioning from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase, primarily driven by valuation rather than profit growth [2][4]. - A-shares and H-shares recorded annual returns of 16% and 29% respectively in 2025, significantly surpassing earlier predictions [2]. - The MSCI China Index's forward P/E ratio increased from 9.9x at the beginning of 2025 to 12.5x currently, while forward earnings per share (fEPS) declined by 4% [4]. Group 2: AI and Technology - The release of DeepSeek-R1 has fundamentally changed the investment narrative for Chinese tech stocks, contributing to a market capitalization increase of over $2 trillion across related sectors [2][11]. - The widespread adoption of AI is expected to drive annual profit growth of 3% for companies over the next decade through cost savings and productivity improvements [12]. Group 3: Trade Performance - China's trade performance has exceeded expectations, with exports growing by 5.4% year-on-year and the RMB appreciating by 4% against the USD [9]. - The resilience of Chinese exports indicates a shift from low-cost manufacturing to selling high-value products in emerging markets [13]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - Despite a sluggish real estate market and slow household income growth, there is significant differentiation within the consumption sector, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [15]. - New consumption sectors, such as entertainment and specialty retail, have shown strong performance, with an average net profit growth of 28% in the first half of 2025 [16]. Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance corporate profits in certain sectors by 50% by 2027, as supply-side reductions and industry consolidation take effect [18]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a critical investment blueprint, with a constructed portfolio yielding a 68% return over the past year, outperforming the MSCI China Index [20]. Group 6: Capital Flows - Domestic capital is increasingly interested in equity assets, with southbound capital inflows reaching $180 billion, a record high [21]. - Global hedge funds have increased their net exposure to China from 6.8% at the beginning of the year to 7.8% by the end of November [21]. Group 7: Market Valuation - The Chinese market is seen as increasingly attractive for diversification, with a 35% discount compared to developed markets and a 9% discount compared to other emerging markets [22]. - The report suggests that structural migration of capital towards equity assets in China may have already begun, as equity assets start to outperform other asset classes [23].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium have also seen substantial increases. However, this rally is accompanied by risks, particularly due to high silver prices impacting solar demand and the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may trigger forced selling in the market [1][4][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have seen a remarkable rise, with gold prices nearing a historical high of $4486 per ounce, marking over 50 record highs in the year [3][11]. - Silver prices have surged approximately 140% this year, while gold has increased nearly 70%, representing the highest annual gains in 46 years [9][11]. - Platinum and palladium have also shown impressive performance, with platinum reaching $2075 per ounce and a yearly increase of nearly 130%, the largest since 1990 [11][16]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in precious metals is driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [13]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to military actions near Venezuela, have added a risk premium to the market [13]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Morgan Stanley warns that the high prices of silver are eroding demand in the photovoltaic sector, with silver's cost share in solar components rising from below 5% to nearly 20% [19]. - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index on January 8, 2026, is expected to lead to significant technical selling, with projected sell-offs of approximately 9% of silver's futures open interest and 3% for gold [21][23][24]. - This anticipated selling pressure could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in the precious metals market at the beginning of the year [25].

美国FDA批准了诺和诺德的首款口服GLP-1减肥药，使其在与礼来的激烈竞争中抢得先机，公司股价盘后一度应声大涨10%。这款Wegovy的口服版本 将于明年1月初在美国上市，起始现金价为每月149美元。临床数据显示其可帮助患者减重高达16.6%，并能降低心血管风险。礼来的同类口服药预计在3 月获批。 抢在礼来之前，诺和诺德在美国的减肥药市场竞争中扳回一局。 12月22日周一，美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）批准了丹麦制药巨头诺和诺德的首款GLP-1类口服减肥药。这款新药是其明星注射产品Wegovy的口 服版本，为数百万寻求更便捷治疗方案的肥胖症患者带来了新选择。 根据诺和诺德的声明，这款口服新药将于明年1月初在美国上市。公司披露了初步的定价策略， 起始剂量的现金支付价格为每月149美元。公司同时表 示，对于拥有保险的患者，在涵盖所有剂量的情况下，每月费用可能低至25美元。 更高剂量的定价以及更详细的保险覆盖和患者节省计划将在临近上 市时公布。 诺和诺德首席执行官Mike Doustdar在声明中表示："Wegovy口服药为患者提供了一个全新、便捷的治疗选择，可以帮助他们开始或继续他们的减重旅 程。"他强调，目前 ...

Group 1 - Rocket Lab successfully completed its 21st launch of the "Electron" rocket this year, delivering a satellite for the Japanese Earth imaging company iQPS into the designated orbit [2] - Following the positive news, Rocket Lab's stock price increased by approximately 4% in pre-market trading on Monday [3] - The satellite launched will join iQPS's synthetic aperture radar constellation, providing near real-time imaging services to global customers through twelve different orbits [4] Group 2 - Since Rocket Lab began executing launch missions for iQPS in 2023, it has deployed a total of 7 satellites for the constellation, making the "Electron" rocket the primary launch vehicle for iQPS [4] - Rocket Lab plans to conduct at least 5 more "Electron" rocket launches for iQPS starting in 2026 [4] - The next launch window for the "Electron" rocket is expected to be in early Q1 2026 [5]

随着地缘政治紧张局势升级，以及对美联储将进一步降息的押注，黄金和白银价格飙升至历史新高，为四十多年来最强劲的年度表现增添了动力。 黄金价格一度上涨2.4%，突破10月份创下的每盎司4,381美元的先前纪录;白银价格一度飙升3.4%，逼近每盎司70美元大关。此举延续了火热 的涨势，使得这两种金属都坚定地迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。 最新的上涨动力来自于交易员押注美联储将在2026年进行两次降息，以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普也倡导更宽松的货币政策。较低的利率通常对 不支付利息的贵金属有利。 Pepperstone的Wu表示，央行购买、实物需求和地缘政治对冲是"中长期的锚定因素，而美联储政策和实际利率继续驱动周期性波动"。她在报 告中指出，黄金市场的新进入者，如Tether Holdings SA等稳定币发行商和一些企业财务部门，正在创造一个"更广泛的资本基础"，"增加了需 求的韧性"。 白银近期的上涨受到投机性资金流入以及10月份历史性逼空行情后主要交易中心持续存在的供应错位的支撑。本月早些时候，上海白银期货的 总交易量飙升至接近几个月前紧张时期所见到的水平。 铂金近日因伦敦市场出现收紧迹象而加速上涨，今 ...