宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 继续以挖掘票息为先：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-06-09 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 可考虑牛陡交易：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-06-09 | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会： | 2025-06-03 | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 债市增量资金来自哪里 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申 ...

国际局势持续动荡下武器装备需求有望扩 大，继续关注军贸与上游 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份额波动风 险；产品价格下降风险等。 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 021-63325888*4036 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | 冯函 | 021-63325888*2900 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | 鲍丙文 baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn 军工上游进入配置区间，关注军贸和航发 产业链等：—军工行业周报（6/2~6/6） 2025-06-09 OC 证落地，载人 eVTOL 迎来商业化元年 2025-03-30 全力推进"十四五"规划圆满收官，新一 轮景气上行周期已开启 2025-03 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pesticide industry explosion incident has triggered a trading market, with a focus on the growth logic of differentiated leading companies. The explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., Ltd. resulted in 5 deaths and 6 missing persons, impacting the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which has a planned capacity of 11,000 tons, significantly exceeding current demand. This incident has led to a short-term supply contraction and heightened safety inspections, causing a slight increase in the price of chlorantraniliprole [11][12] - Despite the potential short-term supply gap for chlorantraniliprole, the market does not expect a widespread and sustained price increase, as the overall supply of the pesticide industry remains excessive. However, the industry has been in a prolonged downturn, and the explosion incident may provide a marginal recovery in overall return rates. Companies with differentiated growth logic are favored, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., Ltd. [12][11] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, which have led to significant price increases in crude oil and related chemicals. Companies such as Huayi Group, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Wankai New Materials are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from rising product prices [11][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Core Viewpoints - The explosion incident in the pesticide industry has created a trading opportunity, with a focus on differentiated leading companies [11] - The supply of chlorantraniliprole is expected to tighten short-term, leading to a slight price increase [12] - The overall pesticide industry is in a prolonged downturn, but the explosion may provide a recovery opportunity [12] Section 2: Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of June 13, Brent oil prices increased by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [13] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases were WTI (up 7.4%), pure benzene (up 7.3%), and styrene (up 6.9%) [14][15]

投资策略 | 定期报告 当时不杂 ——策略周报 0615 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 15 日 | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 17 | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 纷扰于外，求诸于内：——策略周报 0607 | 2025-06-08 | | --- | --- | | 美国"薛定谔式"关税扰动金融市场：— | 2025-06-02 | | —策略周报 0531 | | | 进入政策观察期：——策略周报 0525 | 2025-05-25 | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | 报 0518 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 本周（6/9- ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 工银瑞信基金股权变更，九泰基金获 增资 6000 万元 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 15 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | 陶文启 | | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1. 工银瑞信基金股权变更：6 月 12 日晚间，工银瑞信基金发布 | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 基金市场热点跟踪：1. 工银瑞信基金股权变更：6 月 12 日晚间，工银瑞信基金发布 关于公告股权变更的公告。中国证监会核准瑞士银行有限公司成为工银瑞信基金持 股 5%以上股东，占公司注册资本 20%。工银瑞信表示，本次少数股权变更后公司的 注册资本保持不变，中国工商银行仍 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [4][9]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture with capacity ramp-up, accelerated mass production, and significant catalysts from major manufacturers, making it an opportune time for investment [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries in driving the commercialization of humanoid robots, addressing safety concerns and enhancing user confidence [9][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: companies with Q2 performance exceeding expectations, those integrated into leading manufacturers' supply chains, and firms innovating in components like screws, dexterous hands, motors, sensors, and reducers [4][9]. - Recommended companies include: 1. Complete machines and assemblies: UBTECH, Xinjian, Estun, Tosida, Efort-U, Zhongjian Technology, Yijiahe, Yongchuang Intelligent, Jack Shares, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Xinzhi Group, Junpu Intelligent [4][9]. 2. Components: Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhenyu Technology, Jinwo Shares, Riying Electronics, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, Saimo Intelligent, Kangping Technology, Zhejiang Rongtai, Rongtai Shares, Green Harmonics, Siling Shares, Jiechang Drive, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Xiangxin Technology, Buke Shares, Weike Technology, Nanshan Zhishang, Hanwei Technology, Lingyun Light, Huayi Technology [4][9]. 3. Scenarios and applications: Zhongyou Technology, Dema Technology, Yinfeng Storage, Anhui He Li, Hangcha Group, Noli Shares, Shoucheng Holdings [4][9]. 4. Solid-state battery-related: Xian Dao Intelligent, Naconoer, Honggong Technology, Haimu Star [4][9]. Key Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs have initiated a pilot program for intelligent elderly care service robots from 2025 to 2027, focusing on application scenarios and standard construction [10]. - Major technological advancements are being led by tech giants, with Tesla announcing the delivery of its first fully autonomous vehicle, marking a significant shift in the global mobility ecosystem [9][12]. - The report highlights the establishment of the world's first embodied intelligent robot 4S store in Beijing, which aims to integrate sales and after-sales services, creating a standardized commercial model [9][10]. Solid-State Battery Innovations - Solid-state batteries are expected to revolutionize the humanoid robot industry by overcoming traditional limitations in battery life and safety, thus facilitating the commercial deployment of robots in various applications [9][13]. - Companies involved in solid-state battery technology include: 1. Tsinghua Unigroup, which has established partnerships with leading firms for mass production and application in robots [13]. 2. Other notable firms include Naconoer, Honggong Technology, and Haimu Star, which are advancing solid-state battery technologies and applications [13].

久立特材 002318.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年06月13日） | 24.14 元 | | 目标价格 | 32.36 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 25.52/17.4 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 97,717/95,476 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 23,589 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 钢铁 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.63 | -0.21 | 8.1 | 5.38 | | 相对表现% | 0.88 | 0.61 | 9.31 | -4.21 | | 沪深 300% | -0.25 | -0.82 | -1.21 | 9.59 | 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Value 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Beta 风格上。预期 EPTTM 是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 Value 风格登顶，预期 EPTTM 因子表现出 色 ——东方因子周报 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 15 日 ⚫ 以沪深300指数为选股空间，最近一周，高管薪酬、预期EPTTM等因子表现较好， 而一个月反转、特异度等因子表现较差。最近一月，预期 PEG、单季净利同比增速 等因子表现较好，而一个月反转、三个月反转等因子表现较差。 ⚫ 以中证 500 指数为选股空间，最近一周，单季 ROE、单季营收同比增速等因子表现 较好，而一个月反转、特异度等因子表现较差。最近一月，单季营收同比增速、单 季 ROE 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、特异度等因子表现较差。 ⚫ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Increased external uncertainties and the continuation of loose monetary policy are expected to lead to a long-term downward trend in overall expected returns, making low-volatility dividend strategies effective [3][25]. - The reform of public funds is anticipated to help banks achieve excess returns by shifting asset allocation styles [3]. - The insurance preset interest rate may be lowered again in Q3 2025, which could further enhance the tolerance for dividend yields, supporting absolute returns for banks [3][25]. - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to alleviated pressures on non-interest income growth [3][25]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May 2025, social financing grew by 8.7% year-on-year, with a total increment of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year [9][10]. - Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly contributing to social financing growth [11]. - Corporate direct financing also saw a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan, mainly driven by a rise in bond financing [11]. - Loan growth showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in May 2025, reflecting weak demand and debt replacement effects [16]. M1 and M2 Growth - M1 increased by 2.3% year-on-year in May 2025, with a notable month-on-month recovery of 0.8 percentage points, while M2 grew by 7.9% year-on-year [19]. - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity conditions [19]. Investment Recommendations - Two main investment lines are suggested: 1. Focus on convertible bonds with rebound potential, specifically Hangzhou Bank (600926, Buy) and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [26]. 2. Left-side positioning in high-dividend stocks, with recommendations for major state-owned banks such as CITIC Bank (601998, Not Rated), Industrial Bank (601166, Not Rated), Jiangsu Bank (600919, Buy), and Agricultural Bank (601288, Not Rated) [26].