Group 1 - The report maintains a view of a gradual upward trend for the index despite a slight adjustment this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a minor decline of 1.18% after four consecutive weeks of gains [3][14]. - In terms of industry structure, the report highlights that sectors such as electric equipment (7.4%), comprehensive (5.4%), and non-ferrous metals (2.1%) led the gains, while previously strong technology sectors like communications are expected to undergo adjustments but still possess upward recovery potential [4][15]. - The report emphasizes that technology remains a key investment theme, with a structural shift beginning to take place, particularly focusing on high-end manufacturing, solid-state batteries, and robotics [5][16]. Group 2 - The report identifies solid-state batteries as a significant area of focus, predicting that from 2025 to 2027, they may transition from pilot production to mass production, driven by technological convergence, policy support, and application scenarios [5][16]. - In the robotics sector, the report anticipates that policies and new products will emerge gradually until the end of the year, indicating a favorable period for investment in companies with established market shares and technological barriers [5][16]. - The report suggests that attention should be directed towards domestic supply chain core companies in the ASIC and TPU sectors, noting positive trends in Google's TPU business and Meta's planned investment of $600 billion by 2028, which could catalyze growth in the domestic supply chain [6][17]. Group 3 - The report acknowledges a temporary cooling of market sentiment towards domestic computing power and advanced processes but maintains a positive outlook on the acceleration of industry progress, suggesting that the market has not fully reflected future industry expectations [7][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The main driver for the recent rise in gold prices is the increased certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside rising risks [8][13] - The steel industry is expected to see enhanced mid-term price support due to interest rate cut expectations and policy initiatives [17] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - Companies with self-owned gold mines are likely to see greater profit elasticity during rising gold prices, ensuring sustained performance growth. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zhuhai Group (600961, Buy) [3] - The recent gold price increase is attributed to the shift in dominant investors to U.S. domestic institutions, with a focus on economic recession risks, stock market volatility, and credit risks associated with the dollar [8][14][15] Steel Sector - Demand for steel is under pressure during the off-season, with a need to validate expectations for the peak season [17] - Overall inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have risen, indicating a need for structural improvement in demand [23] - Short-term steel prices are under downward pressure, but policy and demand improvements are expected to support a mid-term recovery [38] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply dynamics [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with July 2025 production and sales showing year-on-year growth of 22.53% and 19.30%, respectively [46] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are showing divergence, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 4.21% week-on-week [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [4] Core Viewpoints - Silicon carbide (SiC) materials are expected to be applied in advanced packaging, opening up growth opportunities. The material's excellent thermal conductivity makes it suitable for applications in intermediary layers and heat dissipation substrates, benefiting related manufacturers [2][19] - The demand for AI GPU performance is continuously increasing, leading to higher thermal management requirements in chip packaging. SiC's thermal conductivity can significantly enhance heat dissipation efficiency in these applications [7][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the electronic industry, particularly the application of silicon carbide materials in advanced packaging, which is anticipated to drive industry growth [1][4] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include Tianyue Advanced, a leader in the silicon carbide substrate industry, and Sanan Optoelectronics, a major power device manufacturer with a focus on silicon carbide substrates [2][19] - Tianyue Advanced is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.77 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [20][23] - Sanan Optoelectronics is expected to see a revenue of 8.99 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.2% [27][31] Key Developments - NVIDIA plans to use silicon carbide substrates in the advanced packaging of its next-generation GPU chips, indicating a significant application potential for SiC materials in high-performance computing [7][8] - TSMC is also planning to apply 12-inch single crystal silicon carbide in heat dissipation substrates, replacing traditional materials [7][17] - The thermal conductivity of silicon carbide can reach 500 W/mK, compared to silicon's 150 W/mK, making it a superior choice for high thermal management applications [14][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [4] Core Insights - The AI server market continues to grow, driven by hardware upgrades and increasing performance requirements [9] - The customized ASIC chip market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of 55.4 billion USD [7] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a focal point, with the Chinese liquid cooling server market expected to reach 10.5 billion USD by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 48% from 2023 to 2028 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - AI server performance upgrades are expected to increase hardware requirements, leading to opportunities in: 1. PCB and upstream CCL materials: Shengyi Technology, Huitian Technology, Jingwang Electronics, Shenzhen South Circuit [2] 2. Memory and storage: Lanke Technology, Jucheng Technology, Demingli, Jiangbolong [2] 3. Connectivity and networking: - Optical chips and modules: Yuanjie Technology, Guangxun Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Cambridge Technology, Huagong Technology [2] - Cables: Wolong Nuclear Materials, Zhaolong Interconnect [2] - Interconnect interfaces: Lanke Technology [2] 4. Cooling systems: Invec, Zhongshi Technology, Sixuan New Materials [2] 5. Power supplies: Magmi Te, Oulutong [2] 6. Complete machines: Industrial Fulian, Lenovo Group, Inspur Information [2] Market Trends - The global AI server shipment is expected to reach 2.14 million units by 2025, with a CAGR of 12% from 2025 to 2028 [8] - The accelerated computing market is projected to reach 22.1 billion USD by 2028 [10] - The AI computing infrastructure is expected to undergo significant advancements, breaking through existing computational bottlenecks [7] Technology Developments - The introduction of NVIDIA's Spectrum-XGS Ethernet technology aims to enhance distributed data center connectivity, potentially leading to the establishment of large-scale AI super factories [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy-efficient cooling solutions in data centers, highlighting the need for sustainable practices in the face of rising energy consumption [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.50 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to optimize its self-developed project diversification in 2026, leading to an increase in the proportion of self-developed games and an improvement in gross margin. The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 2.763 billion, 3.226 billion, and 3.656 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made based on game launch progress and marketing data [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, primarily due to the decline of older games like "Seeking the Great Thousand." The gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.7%, down 2.9 percentage points, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of agency games. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.4 billion CNY, an increase of 11% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced sales expenses [9]. - Domestic revenue for H1 2025 was 5.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while overseas revenue was 2.72 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. The company has several global products awaiting launch, with a diverse portfolio across various genres [9]. - The company has significantly integrated AI technology into its operations, with over 80% of 2D art assets and over 30% of 3D assets generated using AI. AI has also been involved in generating over 70% of game advertising materials and has achieved a 95% accuracy rate in localizing translations for 85% of its overseas games [9]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for the company from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 16.547 billion, 17.441 billion, 17.087 billion, 18.097 billion, and 18.646 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 0.9%, 5.4%, -2.0%, 5.9%, and 3.0% [4][11]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to grow from 2.659 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.656 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -10.0%, 0.5%, 3.4%, 16.8%, and 13.3% respectively [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The main brand, Han Shu, has solidified its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms, with a strong performance across multiple platforms [9] - The second growth curve has formed with the mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, showing a significant revenue increase of 147% year-on-year, contributing to the company's growth [9] - The company launched a new high-end professional makeup brand, NAN beauty, which is expected to enhance its multi-brand strategy [9] - The company's multi-brand and multi-category layout is becoming increasingly mature, supported by effective management and incentive mechanisms [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively, with a target price of 103.21 HKD based on a 34x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2023 revenue at 4,191 million RMB and expected to reach 12,411 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75%, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 56.94 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with simultaneous expansion in domestic and international markets. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 270 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million CNY, up 5.5% year-on-year [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its domestic presence and building its own brand, with domestic revenue for the first half of 2025 at 70 million CNY, a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year. The sales of medical optical products in the domestic market grew by 48% year-on-year [11]. - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, with R&D investment of 33.215 million CNY in the first half of 2025, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. This includes the trial production of new medical instruments and the application of AI technology to improve endoscopic image quality [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 556 million CNY, 674 million CNY, and 835 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 21.1%, and 23.9% [9][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to 1.46 CNY, 1.69 CNY, and 2.04 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 64.7%, 64.9%, and 63.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 56.94 CNY [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with simultaneous expansion in domestic and international markets. The short-term performance is under pressure, but the order volume is expected to recover [5][11] - The company achieved a revenue of 270 million CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 70 million CNY, up 5.5% year-on-year [11] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business and has established production lines in Thailand to mitigate tariff pressures from the US market [11] - Domestic sales have shown stability, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase in revenue, while medical optical products saw a significant growth of 48% [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 556 million CNY, 674 million CNY, and 835 million CNY respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 21.1%, and 23.9% [9][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.46 CNY, 1.69 CNY, and 2.04 CNY respectively [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 64.7% in 2025, with a net margin of 31.6% [9][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.20 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2026 [5][3]. Core Views - The company's core game "Yihuan" is expected to launch in 2026, contributing significantly to revenue growth. The forecasted net profit for the company is 0.827 billion, 1.564 billion, and 1.806 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a recovery in profitability [3][10]. - The company has seen a strong performance in its existing games, particularly "Zhu Xian World," which has driven revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.791 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. However, a decline of 28.5% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 29.1% and 48.6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 58.2% in 2025 and increase to 63.9% in 2026, indicating improved profitability as new games are launched [4][12]. - The net profit margin is projected to recover from -23.1% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround in the company's financial health [4][12].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 降息前后美国经济仍疲弱 ——海外札记 20250903 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 降息按下快进键：——海外札记 20250825 | 2025-08-27 | | --- | --- | | 美国通胀风险未能阻碍市场上行：——海 | 2025-08-19 | | 外札记 20250818 ...