建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 地产及地产链继续寻底，关注受益于二手房翻新、城市更新改造，并且 C 端零售业务取 得明显进展的消费建材企业。建议关注涂料龙头三棵树(603737，未评级)、板材龙头兔 宝宝(002043，未评级)、石膏板龙头北新建材(000786，买入)。 风险提示 房地产需求进一步下滑、行业中小企业出清不及预期，原燃材料价格上涨、国际贸易形 势恶化、国产替代新材料需求释放不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 18 日 看好（维持） 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | --- | --- | | —建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 关税调整，跨境电商仍有作为：——遮阳 | 2025-05-29 | | 面料行业跟踪点评 | | | 预期逐渐改善，重视估值修复机会：—— | 2024-12-18 | | 建筑建材行业 ...

电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 风电有望走出"周期"，迈向盈利与新成长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖，静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202， 未评级)、明阳智能(601615，未评级)、运达股份(300772，未评级)、日月股份 (603218，未评级)、三一重能(688349，未评级)、金雷股份(300443，未评级)等； 海风周期拐点蓄势待发，静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ，未评级) 、振江 股份(603507，买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222，买入)、大金重工(002487，未评级)等。 风险提示 能源结构转型速度不及预期、风电需求不及预期、竞争激烈程度增加、地缘风险、汇率 风险。 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 17 日 看好（维持） 严东 yandong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 | 25 年 1-5 月风电中标延续景气趋势 | 2025-06-04 | | --- | ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 社融同比增幅收窄，但金融支持并未减弱 ——2025 年 5 月社融数据点评 研究结论 事件：2025 年 6 月 13 日央行公布最新金融数据，2025 年 5 月社会融资规模增量为 22871 亿元，比上年同期多增 2248 亿元（上个月同比多增 12249 亿元）；社会融资规 模存量为 426.16 万亿元，同比增长 8.7%（前值 8.7%，后同）。 风险提示 ⚫ 贸易战升级背景下经济复苏不及预期的风险；海外货币政策超预期紧缩的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | 曹靖楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052001 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Conflict Overview - The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated with Israel's attacks starting on June 13, leading to multiple retaliatory strikes from Iran using drones and missiles[1] - The indirect negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue, scheduled for June 15 in Oman, were postponed due to the outbreak of hostilities[1] - The recent escalation reflects a decline in the U.S.'s global strategic control and coordination capabilities, particularly after the failure to mediate the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire[1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - The conflict has increased the risk of war, raising oil prices due to supply-side pressures[2] - Israel's attacks aimed to prevent the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, which could threaten Israel's nuclear deterrence and national security[2] - North America and the Middle East are major oil production regions, with their share increasing in recent years; however, global economic growth expectations have weakened due to trade wars, impacting oil demand[2] Group 3: Nuclear Negotiation Dynamics - The interruption of nuclear negotiations may lead to stricter conditions for any future talks, reshaping the power dynamics among the U.S., Iran, and Israel[3] - Iran's restraint in its military response indicates a desire to control the conflict's intensity while still demonstrating a strong stance[3] - The U.S. is currently providing defensive support to Israel but has not directly engaged in the conflict, which may change if Iran escalates its attacks on U.S. interests[3] Group 4: Future Scenarios - One scenario involves Iran signing a nuclear agreement under U.S. and Israeli pressure, leading to a relatively peaceful U.S. strategy to contain Iran while enhancing ties with Gulf allies[4] - Another scenario could see a significant breakthrough in Iran's nuclear capabilities, prompting the U.S. to unify Gulf states and Israel against Iran, creating a comprehensive strategic blockade[4]

宏观经济 | 专题报告 后关税交易：宏观叙事和市场方向的重定 位 ——海外宏观中期展望 研究结论 风险提示 假设条件发生变化影响测算结果。政治政策博弈、选择的不确定性。 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价：——海 | 2025-06-04 | ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 临近季末关注机构行为冲击 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 继续以挖掘票息为先：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-06-09 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 可考虑牛陡交易：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-06-09 | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会： | 2025-06-03 | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增长无惧外部环境变化，未来波动预计小 于预期——5 月经济数据点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 出口并未失速，且后续新出口订单仍值得 期待——5 月进出口点评 2025-06-12 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 5 月半数时间未被《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所覆盖，因此市场对经济数据 的预期偏低，同时考虑到未来国际环境变化，下半年预期更弱，但我们认为，不仅 5 月增长数据具有韧性，且结构亮点显著，内需与科技升级能够支撑全年经济达到 目标： ⚫ 生产数据有下行但不多， ...

政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 继续以挖掘票息为先：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-06-09 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 可考虑牛陡交易：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-06-09 | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会： | 2025-06-03 | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 债市增量资金来自哪里 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申 ...

国际局势持续动荡下武器装备需求有望扩 大，继续关注军贸与上游 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份额波动风 险；产品价格下降风险等。 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 16 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 021-63325888*4036 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | 冯函 | 021-63325888*2900 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | 鲍丙文 baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn 军工上游进入配置区间，关注军贸和航发 产业链等：—军工行业周报（6/2~6/6） 2025-06-09 OC 证落地，载人 eVTOL 迎来商业化元年 2025-03-30 全力推进"十四五"规划圆满收官，新一 轮景气上行周期已开启 2025-03 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pesticide industry explosion incident has triggered a trading market, with a focus on the growth logic of differentiated leading companies. The explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., Ltd. resulted in 5 deaths and 6 missing persons, impacting the supply of chlorantraniliprole, which has a planned capacity of 11,000 tons, significantly exceeding current demand. This incident has led to a short-term supply contraction and heightened safety inspections, causing a slight increase in the price of chlorantraniliprole [11][12] - Despite the potential short-term supply gap for chlorantraniliprole, the market does not expect a widespread and sustained price increase, as the overall supply of the pesticide industry remains excessive. However, the industry has been in a prolonged downturn, and the explosion incident may provide a marginal recovery in overall return rates. Companies with differentiated growth logic are favored, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., Ltd. [12][11] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, which have led to significant price increases in crude oil and related chemicals. Companies such as Huayi Group, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Wankai New Materials are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from rising product prices [11][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Core Viewpoints - The explosion incident in the pesticide industry has created a trading opportunity, with a focus on differentiated leading companies [11] - The supply of chlorantraniliprole is expected to tighten short-term, leading to a slight price increase [12] - The overall pesticide industry is in a prolonged downturn, but the explosion may provide a recovery opportunity [12] Section 2: Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of June 13, Brent oil prices increased by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [13] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases were WTI (up 7.4%), pure benzene (up 7.3%), and styrene (up 6.9%) [14][15]