Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.24 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is entering a harvest period for innovative drugs, although its main business faces short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement on the infusion and generic drug segments [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 21.81 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.94 billion CNY, up 19.53% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline to 4.39 billion CNY, down 29.42%, and a net profit of 584 million CNY, down 43.07%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [9]. - The ADC platform is expected to yield significant commercial results, with key products like SKB264 receiving regulatory approval for multiple indications [9]. - The antibiotic supply-demand structure remains stable, with synthetic biology products contributing to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials indicate a revenue increase from 21.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.19 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.46 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.62 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.27 CNY by 2027 [4][2]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50% to 52.7% over the forecast period, indicating a solid profitability outlook [4].

投资策略 | 定期报告 进入政策观察期 ——策略周报 0525 研究结论 风险提示 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | --- | --- | | 报 0518 | | | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 ...

4 月电新出口整体企稳 核心观点 ⚫ 4 月电新出口整体企稳，逆变器、变压器和电表均呈现环比增长态势，风机出口同 比维系呈现高速增长。 组件：4 月出口 161.58 亿元，环比-1.07%，同比-20.33%。1-4 月累计出口 607.50 亿元，累计同比-28.29%。 逆变器：4 月出口 58.17 亿元，环比+28.17%，同比+17.95%。1-4 月累计出口 180.19 亿元，累计同比+9.94%。 变压器：4 月出口 47.77 亿元，环比+9.27%，同比+33.86%。1-4 月累计出口 178.29 亿元，累计同比+38.30%。 电表：4 月出口 9.80 亿元，环比+28%，同比+34%。1-4 月累计出口 35.32 亿元， 累计同比+14.82%。 风机：4 月出口 1.34 亿美元，环比-7.84%，同比+49.31%。1-4 月累计出口 4.43 亿美元，累计同比+43.84%。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注德业股份(605117，买入)、阳光电源(300274，未评级)、禾迈股份 (688032，买入)、三星医疗(601567，未评级)、海兴电力(603556，未评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, benefiting from strong growth in the ADC sector and unique competitive advantages as an industry leader [5][20] - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of $64.7 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in treatment strategies and new drug approvals [9][43] - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform that covers the entire process from discovery to GMP production, which is expected to accelerate project timelines and enhance growth potential [9][20] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 180% and 121% from 2020 to 2023, respectively [20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 5,470.58 million, HKD 7,169.95 million, and HKD 9,202.70 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1,257.14 million, HKD 1,695.86 million, and HKD 2,302.43 million [8][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.35% in 2023 to 34.00% by 2027, while net margin is projected to rise from 13.35% to 25.02% over the same period [8] Market Position - The company holds a 9.8% global market share in the ADC sector, ranking second globally and first domestically, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contribution [68] - The ADC outsourcing service market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to over $11 billion by 2030, indicating a strong demand for the company's services [64][68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, with a market share of 9.8% globally and ranked second worldwide, benefiting from the technological and capacity advantages of its major shareholders [5][68]. - The ADC market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of ADCs in cancer treatment [9][43]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with a forecasted revenue of HKD 5,470.58 million in 2025, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of HKD 1.05, HKD 1.41, and HKD 1.91 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The target price is set at HKD 47.81, based on DCF valuation, reflecting the company's leadership position in the ADC CRDMO sector and its robust project pipeline [6]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2013 and went public in 2023, focusing on the development and manufacturing of ADCs and XDCs [14]. - The core management team has extensive experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [18]. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company has experienced a CAGR of 180% in revenue and 121% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, with a projected revenue growth of 91% and net profit growth of 277% in 2024 [20]. - The gross margin and net margin are expected to improve significantly due to enhanced operational efficiency and increased capacity utilization [23]. Market Dynamics - The ADC market is projected to reach USD 6.47 billion by 2030, with a significant shift towards frontline treatments and combination therapies with immunotherapy [43][48]. - The demand for ADC outsourcing services is expected to grow, with the global ADC outsourcing market projected to exceed USD 11 billion by 2030 [64].

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 分红对期指的影响 20250523 研究结论 | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 2693.00 | 17.28 | -18.85 | -1.58 | | IH2507 | 2664.80 | 54.43 | -47.05 | 7.38 | | IH2509 | 2655.60 | 58.77 | -56.25 | 2.52 | | IH2512 | 2653.80 | 58.77 | -58.05 | 0.72 | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3846.20 | 20.75 | -36.07 | -15.32 | | IF2507 | 3808.80 | 55.62 | -73.47 | -17.86 | | IF2509 | 3777.80 | 66.11 | -104.47 | -38.37 | | IF2512 | 37 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli, with a target price of 17.21 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company faces high costs that are squeezing some profits, but its internationalization and industrial chain layout continue to inject development momentum [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.33 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.32 billion CNY, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas strategy, with significant growth in exports and overseas revenue, which accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2024 [10] - The company is enhancing its industrial chain layout by investing in smart logistics and reducing related transactions through acquisitions [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for 2023 and projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2023 Revenue: 17.156 billion CNY, 2024 Revenue: 17.325 billion CNY (1% growth) - 2024 Net Profit: 1.32 billion CNY, 2025 Net Profit: 1.442 billion CNY (9.3% growth) [4][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 23.46%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.6% [4][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.48 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.02 CNY by 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The recovery of Blizzard games is expected to drive growth, with new mobile games like "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" anticipated to launch [3] - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in gross margin and investment income [3] - The target price is set at 210.13 HKD / 193.03 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported total revenue of 103,468 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - The operating profit for 2023A was 27,709 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 29,417 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The gross margin for 2023A was 60.95%, with a projected increase to 64.59% by 2027E [4] - The net profit margin for 2023A was 28.43%, expected to rise to 31.00% by 2027E [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 28,829 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [9] - The revenue from games and related value-added services in Q1 2025 was 24,048 million CNY, up 12.1% year-on-year [9] - Mobile game revenue in Q1 2025 was 15,359 million CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year, while PC game revenue surged by 85% to 8,088 million CNY [9] Future Projections - The company expects Q2 2025 mobile game revenue to face less year-on-year pressure, while PC game revenue is anticipated to remain strong [9] - The projected revenue for 2025E is 114,089 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.35% [10] - The estimated operating profit for 2025E is 36,475 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 23.29% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2]. - The report adjusts the previous profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.873 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.91%. However, a decline of 8.31% is expected in 2024 [4]. - The GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.925 billion CNY, with a significant decline of 1513.58% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s operating income is projected to be 2.989 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.107 billion CNY in 2025, but expected to rise to 2.188 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.186 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%. The membership service revenue was 4.399 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.328 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [10]. - Content distribution revenue was reported at 629 million CNY for Q1 2025, down 32.3% year-on-year [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of May 22, 2025, was $1.69, with a 52-week high of $4.92 and a low of $1.50 [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of $16.27 billion [5]. Comparative Valuation - The adjusted average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 31X, indicating a valuation benchmark for the company [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see growth driven by the recovery of Blizzard games and the upcoming launches of mobile games such as "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" [3] - The profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an increase in gross margin and investment income while reducing the sales expense ratio [3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.468 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 27.709 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is forecasted at 29.417 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 9.29 CNY [4] - The gross margin is projected to be 60.95% for 2023, with a gradual increase to 64.59% by 2027 [4] - The net margin is expected to be 28.43% in 2023, with a slight increase to 31.00% by 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is reported at 28.829 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [9] - Revenue from games and related value-added services in Q1 2025 is 24.048 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [9] - Mobile game revenue in Q1 2025 is 15.359 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [9] - PC game revenue in Q1 2025 is 8.088 billion CNY, with a substantial year-on-year increase of 85% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company's stock is set at 210.13 HKD, with a current share price of 186.6 HKD [5] - The company is valued using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) approach, with the gaming segment accounting for 94% of the total valuation [11]