家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 固本培元，由守转攻可期 ——小家电推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议 关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；推荐海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质 企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国 补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头 科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 报告发布日期 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.64 CNY based on a 46x PE for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with a revenue of 825 million CNY (down 10.3% YoY) and a net profit of 42 million CNY (down 71.9% YoY). However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery, with a revenue of 212 million CNY (up 6.4% YoY) and a net profit of 44 million CNY (up 6.8% YoY) [10]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its marketing strategy, shifting from an alliance model to a digital self-operated model, which has led to improved operational efficiency and reduced sales expenses [10]. - The clinical pipeline is progressing well, with several key products in various stages of development, indicating strong long-term growth potential [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 969 million CNY in 2025, 1,141 million CNY in 2026, and 1,289 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 17.4%, 17.8%, and 12.9% respectively [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The operating profit is expected to rebound significantly to 217 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 454.7% YoY, and further increase to 285 million CNY in 2026 and 337 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 0.84 CNY in 2025, 1.14 CNY in 2026, and 1.40 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 89.7% to 89.8% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to improve from 13.8% in 2025 to 17.3% in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.64 CNY based on a 46x PE for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in profits in 2024, with a net profit of 0.42 billion CNY, down 71.9% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery, with a net profit of 0.44 billion CNY, up 6.8% year-on-year [10]. - The company's existing business faced challenges, but growth opportunities are emerging as marketing transformations progress. The sales revenue for the product "Su Ling" was 5.92 billion CNY, down 3.5% year-on-year, while "Mi Ge Xi" saw a revenue drop of 21.6% due to local procurement policies [10]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing well, with several key products in development, including KC1036 for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 9.20 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 8.25 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 9.69 billion CNY in 2025, representing a 17.4% growth [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.50 billion CNY, expected to drop to 0.42 billion CNY in 2024, but forecasted to rebound to 1.33 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 215.6% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.84 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.14 CNY in 2026 and 1.40 CNY in 2027 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices experienced a slight decline, while the prices of acrylic acid and coal tar saw significant increases. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [9][17]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories by 600,000 barrels [13][14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [9][14]. Price and Spread Changes - The report indicates that the top three products with the largest weekly price increases were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest monthly price increases were liquid chlorine (up 40.2%), but it also noted significant declines in formic acid (down 29.2%) [9][15]. - The top three products with the largest weekly spread increases were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The report also highlights significant declines in the spreads of acrylic acid butyl ester (down 710.1%) and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [9][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI is seeing profit improvements, with new petrochemical and new material projects coming online [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product prices are recovering alongside a decline in coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1.卡塔尔投资局受让华夏基金 10%股份：5 月 22 日，证监会网 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 站发布关于核准华夏基金管理有限公司变更持股 5%以上股东的批复，证监会核准卡 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | 塔尔控股有限责任公司成为华夏基金管理有限公司持股 5%以上股东；对卡塔尔控股 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 有限责任公司依法受让华夏基金 2380 万元人民币出资（占注册资本比例 10%）无异 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline this week, with a focus on leading companies that have strong alpha and are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [17][9][5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production expectations contributed to this decline. As of May 16, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 443.2 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 1.3 million barrels [13][2]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [14][9]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 710.1%), R410a spread (down 100.0%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (down 20.7%) [19][9]. - Monthly, the top three price spread increases were in styrene (up 192.7%), oil head ethylene glycol spread (up 130.1%), and MTO spread (up 119.6%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 2675.6%), BDO (phenol method) spread (down 370.9%), and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [19][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product price recovery combined with falling coal prices leads to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 布局饮料啤酒旺季，关注新品类催化 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 推荐板块及个股：酒饮料中，关注进入备货与投资旺季的饮料及啤酒板块。 啤酒：推荐 U8 强势成长、国改盈利能力提升、新发全国汽水大单品布局"啤酒+汽 水"，盈利改善有望超预期的燕京啤酒(000729，买入)； 饮料：推荐传统鸡尾酒+香精香料业务有望复苏超市场预期，且威士忌第二增长曲线迎密 集催化的百润股份(002568，增持)。推荐东鹏特饮大单品稳健增长，第二曲线补水啦高 增，新品果之茶有望超越补水啦增长曲线的东鹏饮料(605499，买入)。 风险提示 消费复苏进度不及预期、区域经济增速放缓、食品安全事件风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 叶书怀 | yeshuhuai@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517090002 | | 燕斯娴 | yansixian1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080004 | | 白酒核心单品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming launch of the Huawei brand vehicle, the Zun Jie S800, is expected to enhance market competition in the luxury car segment, leveraging Huawei's strengths in technology and branding [11][40] - The report suggests continued focus on the Huawei supply chain, autonomous driving technology leaders, and certain state-owned enterprises that may reverse their current challenges through reforms and collaborations [2][13] - The report highlights strong order volumes for the Wanjie M8 and M9 models, indicating a positive trend for the Wanjie brand [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.8%, ranking second among 29 primary industries [15] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a significant increase of 5.48%, while the automotive parts sector experienced a slight decline of 0.70% [15] Sales Tracking - From May 1-18, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 858,000 units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase, while retail sales reached 932,000 units, up 12% year-on-year [23] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 9.326 million units, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the previous year [23] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors, with specific buy ratings for some [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies involved in the Huawei supply chain and humanoid robotics [2][13] Industry Developments - The report notes the upcoming testing of Tesla's Robotaxi project, which will operate without safety drivers, showcasing advancements in autonomous driving technology [12] - Figure Robotics has achieved a significant milestone by completing 20-hour shifts in BMW's production line, indicating progress in robotics for manufacturing [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The time point for the certificate of deposit (CD) interest rate to return to a downward trend may be earlier than market expectations. Despite the existence of factors such as increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts, and the end - of - June factor that cause marginal tightening pressure on the capital market, the market has made preparations. The outflow of bank deposits due to rate cuts may increase the demand for CD allocation, and the CD issuance rhythm and bank behavior also support the earlier return of CD rates to a downward trend. If so, it will also bring a repair opportunity for the bond market interest rate to decline steeply [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market concerns about the upward risk of CD interest rates have resurfaced, mainly due to increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts increasing bank liability pressure, and the end - of - June factor. However, the market has prepared, and the CD interest rate may return to a downward trend earlier than expected [4][7]. - Deposit rate cuts may lead to bank deposit outflows, but the funds are likely to enter fixed - income asset management products, increasing CD allocation demand and potentially pushing CD rates down [4][7]. - From the perspective of CD issuance rhythm, if banks expect tight funds at the beginning of the year and increase CD financing, the CD rate may decline earlier when facing the end - of - June factor [4][8]. - Bank behavior shows that the slowdown in the expansion pressure of inter - bank liabilities relative to assets helps stabilize CD rates [4][8]. 2 Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for May, the US will release the core PCE for April, and the eurozone will release the industrial sentiment index for May [17][18]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Scale Estimation - This week, it is expected to issue 328.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, 39 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 228.2 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - based financial bonds is expected to be around 100 billion yuan [18]. 3 Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank's reverse repurchase volume increased, with a total injection of 946 billion yuan, and the MLF roll - over was 500 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan in the open market after considering maturities. The capital market interest rate fluctuated more, with the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase falling, and the overnight proportion averaging around 87%. The capital interest rate declined but still had large intraday fluctuations [23][24]. - The CD issuance scale rebounded, and the interest rate increased. From May 19th to May 25th, the issuance scale was 714.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 738.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24 billion yuan. The issuance and interest rates of different types of banks and different maturities also changed [30][31]. 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Rise After Exhausting Positive Factors - Last week, long - term interest rates mainly rose, while medium - and short - term interest rates continued to decline slightly. Factors included large intraday fluctuations in capital interest rates, strong profit - taking sentiment after the dual cuts, and a significant increase in the issuance price of ultra - long - term primary treasury bonds. On May 23rd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.2bp, - 0.9bp, - 1.0bp, - 1.6bp, and 3.3bp respectively compared to the previous week [40]. 4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates declined, such as the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt operating rate, while the PTA operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel production in early May decreased year - on - year [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained positive, land trading volume increased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 7.2% and 0.2% respectively [49]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, coal prices diverged, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the middle reaches also declined. Vegetable and fruit prices in the downstream consumption sector declined slightly, while pork prices remained flat [50].

建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆 科技、精锻科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯 特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃、浙 江荣泰等。 尊界 S800 即将发布，继续关注华为链及机 器人产业链公司 ——汽车行业周报（0519-0525） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，继续关注华为链整车及汽零，2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾 技术方面领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强 对外合作等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及人形机器人链、华为 产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链公司。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec ...