Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 36.33 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 21 times the earnings for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company faced profit pressure in 2024 due to goodwill impairment, with a reported revenue of 115.39 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. However, the performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 32.94 billion CNY, up 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.87 billion CNY, down 17.7% year-on-year, but showing a 31% increase when excluding prior year investment gains [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 121.41 billion CNY in 2025, 128.33 billion CNY in 2026, and 137.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.9% respectively [3]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 11.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth of 30.3%, followed by 12.52 billion CNY in 2026 and 13.83 billion CNY in 2027 [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.73 CNY in 2025, 1.97 CNY in 2026, and 2.17 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 34.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 9.1% [3][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 29.76 CNY, with a 52-week high of 31.96 CNY and a low of 21.13 CNY. The current dividend yield stands at 4.2% based on a proposed cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share [4][8].

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 透过财报看算力产业落地进度 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为，从上市公司财报中，我们已经可以看出 AI 芯片与服务器行业受益于 AI 行业的 迅猛发展而呈现指标加速，此外，算力租赁服务企业订单的密集落地和预付账款的增 加，也预示着相关业务的落地指日可待，而 IDC 行业由于业务落地周期长，目前从行业 整体而言尚未看到财务数据变化但我们对前景也较为乐观。 风险提示 技术落地不及预期、政策落地不及预期、美国进一步制裁风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 05 日 看好（维持） | 浦俊懿 | 021-63325888*6106 | | --- | --- | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | 陈超 | 021-63325888*3144 | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | 宋鑫宇 | songxinyu@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper industry, specifically recommending Sun Paper (002078) and others [4]. Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 0.17%, outperforming the market by 0.61 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector declined by 1.34%, underperforming the market by 0.91 percentage points [2][12]. - The report highlights a seasonal downturn in cultural paper, with falling pulp prices, and anticipates a gradual improvement in overall supply and demand in the industry by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 9th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector showing a decline [12][18]. - The four major sub-sectors of light industry, ranked by growth, are packaging printing, cultural products, furniture, and paper, with respective increases of 1.07%, 1.03%, 0.07%, and a decrease of 1.34% in the paper sector [12][16]. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Pulp prices have decreased, with domestic waste paper prices down by 7 CNY/ton, and various paper products also seeing price reductions [9][22]. - The report notes that the cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling 38.19 million tons [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the integrated pulp and paper sector, such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Shares (603733), Huawang Technology (605377), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) [4]. - For waste paper products, it suggests investing in Jiu Long Paper (02689) and Shanying International (600567) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4].

电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 25Q1 风电行业招标增长，价格企稳 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖，静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202， 未评级)、明阳智能(601615，未评级)、运达股份(300772，未评级)、日月股份 (603218，未评级)、三一重能(688349，未评级)、金雷股份(300443，未评级)等； 海风周期拐点蓄势待发，静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ，未评级) 、振江 股份(603507，买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222，买入)、大金重工(002487，未评级)等。 风险提示 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 顾高臣 | 021-63325888*6119 | | --- | --- | | | gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520080004 | | 严东 | yandong@orientsec.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 112.46 CNY [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings in Q1, with significant growth from emerging brands [1]. - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be 10.778 billion CNY and 1.552 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 30% [6]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its brand portfolio and market share in various segments, including men's skincare and medical post-operative recovery [6]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 4.56 CNY, 5.36 CNY, and 6.06 CNY, respectively [2][7]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.905 billion CNY in 2023 to 15.577 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 69.9% in 2023 to 73.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [2][10]. Brand Performance - The main brand and the Cai Tang brand showed stable performance, while emerging brands like OR and Yuan Se Bo Ta experienced rapid growth, with revenue increases of 71.1% and 138.4%, respectively [6]. - Online sales channels grew by 23.7% in 2024, while offline channels saw a decline of 13.6% [6]. Market Position - The company has demonstrated resilience in a challenging consumer environment, maintaining strong performance across its brand matrix [6]. - The report highlights the company's ability to adapt and thrive despite market pressures, positioning it well for future growth [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 16.38 CNY per share [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a high growth in profits, supported by robust asset expansion capabilities and a favorable profit growth advantage compared to peers, justifying a 20% valuation premium [7]. - The net interest income growth has continued to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in Q1 2025, indicating a stabilization in net interest margin [10]. - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530%, which is significantly higher than comparable peers [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported total revenue of 35,016 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 14,383 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [9]. - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.5%, 15.1%, and 15.7% respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be 3.11 CNY, 3.59 CNY, and 4.15 CNY [7][9]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, total assets and total loans grew by 15.9% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong loan demand [10]. - The company’s total liabilities and deposits also increased by 15.3% and 21.1% year-on-year, respectively, showcasing effective deposit mobilization [10]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.75X, 0.66X, and 0.57X, respectively [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are estimated at 4.76, 4.13, and 3.57, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [9][11].

盈利预测与投资建议 邮储银行 601658.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 成本收入比优化，对公业务增长较快 ——邮储银行 25Q1 季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 根据 25Q1 财报数据，上调信贷增速、非息收入增速假设，下调息差假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净利润同比增速为 0.2%/1.3%/1.7%， BVPS 为 8.96/9.57/10.18 元 （原预测值分别为 8.97/9.59/10.24 元），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.60X/0.56X/0.53X。相比可比公司维持 20%的估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.80 倍 PB，目 标价 7.17 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 342,507 | 348,775 | 352,082 | 357,736 | 367,162 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.3 ...

商誉减值致 24 年利润承压，25Q1 表现超 预期 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报、25 年一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27年每股收益分别为 1.73、1.97、2.17元（原预测 25-26年为 1.79、1.88元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 21 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 36.33 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期、原奶价格持续回落导致竞争加剧、减值损失缩窄幅度不 及预期、食品安全事件风险。 （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 125,758 | 115,393 | 121,413 | 128,328 | 137,195 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 11,873 | 1 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 首个城市绿证绿电碳业务服务中心在杭成 | 2025-04-27 | | --- | --- | | 立：——ESG 企业动态双周报第三十期 | | | 加快建设农业强国，推进农业全面绿色转 | 2025-04-20 | | 型：——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 | | | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | ...

首批科创综指增强策略 ETF 获批，指 数公司下调指数许可使用费 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 场内基金动态：截止 2025 年 4 月 30 日，规模最大的 ETF 跟踪标的为沪深 300，总 规模 10359.15 亿元，其次为中证 A500 规模 2113.36 亿元、上证 50 规模 1706.16 亿 元，股票宽基指数中沪深 300、上证 50、中证 A500 规模最大，股票非宽基指数中 证券公司、纳斯达克 100、恒生科技规模最大，纳斯达克 100 是规模最大的境外股 票指数，SGE黄金 9999是规模最大的商品指数。上周，中证短融资金净流入最多为 45.17 亿元，其次，中证 A500 净流出最多为-36.18 亿元；年初至今，沪深 300 净流 入最多 705.08 亿，SGE 黄金 9999 其次，中证 A500 净流出最多-479.49 亿元。 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号 ...