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酒鬼酒:动销疲软,静待消费环境回暖-20250504
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.89 CNY, based on a valuation of 149 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing weak sales performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, attributed to a challenging consumption environment. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2025, contingent on macroeconomic factors [9][10]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and deepen market operations, focusing on core markets and reducing inefficient SKUs by 50% [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 14.23 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.48 billion CNY in 2025, with a subsequent increase to 13.18 billion CNY in 2026 and 15.72 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to recover from 0.12 billion CNY in 2024 to 0.17 billion CNY in 2025, reaching 0.20 billion CNY in 2026 and 0.31 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 0.04 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.53 CNY in 2025, 0.62 CNY in 2026, and 0.96 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to decline to 71.4% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 68.7% in 2025 and stabilizing around 71.4% by 2027 [3][9]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is projected to be 0.9% in 2024, improving to 13.7% in 2025 and reaching 19.8% by 2027 [3][9]. Market Performance Summary - The company’s stock has shown a negative absolute performance over various time frames, including a -3.42% decline over the past week and a -10.72% decline over the past month [5].
南方传媒:24年报和25一季报点评:25Q1利润表现亮眼,分红力度创新高、股东回报提升-20250504
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth point [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The target price for 2025 is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 16.49 yuan, with a 52-week high of 17.36 yuan and a low of 10.66 yuan [3] - The company has shown strong relative performance against the market, with a 1-week return of 5.5% and a 1-month return of 3.13% [4]
石英股份2024年年报&2025年一季报点评:业绩暂时承压,期待半导体业务提速
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 10:23
业绩暂时承压,期待半导体业务提速 ——石英股份 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 调整 2025-2027 年归母净利润至 5.14、7.98、12.42 亿元(原预测 2025 年为 69.43 亿元),主要对预测期高纯石英砂的单价和销量调整。根据可比公司 2025 年平均 37X PE 计算,对应目标价 35.15 元,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,184 | 1,210 | 1,618 | 2,173 | 3,011 | | 同比增长 (%) | 258.5% | -83.2% | 33.7% | 34.3% | 38.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,958 | 395 | 588 | 917 | 1,436 | | 同比增长 (%) | 381.7% | -93.4% | 48.9% | 56.1% | 56.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 5, ...
酒鬼酒(000799):动销疲软,静待消费环境回暖
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 09:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.89 CNY, based on a valuation of 149 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing weak sales performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, attributed to a challenging consumption environment. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2025, contingent on macroeconomic factors [9][10]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and deepen market operations, focusing on core markets and reducing inefficient SKUs by 50% [9][10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.423 billion CNY, a decrease of 49.7% year-on-year, with a further decline expected in 2025 to 1.248 billion CNY [3][9]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 0.1 billion CNY, down 97.7% year-on-year, with a recovery forecasted to 0.171 billion CNY in 2025 [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.04 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.53 CNY in 2025 and 0.62 CNY in 2026 [3][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 71.4% in 2024, down from 78.3% in 2023, and a net margin of 0.9%, a significant drop from 19.4% in the previous year [3][9]. - The total expenses ratio increased to 48.9% in 2024, reflecting a rise of 13.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating higher operational costs [9][10]. - The company's cash flow remains robust, supporting its valuation despite the current challenges [10].
25Q1风电行业招标增长,价格企稳
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 07:44
电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 25Q1 风电行业招标增长,价格企稳 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖,静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202, 未评级)、明阳智能(601615,未评级)、运达股份(300772,未评级)、日月股份 (603218,未评级)、三一重能(688349,未评级)、金雷股份(300443,未评级)等; 海风周期拐点蓄势待发,静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ,未评级) 、振江 股份(603507,买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222,买入)、大金重工(002487,未评级)等。 风险提示 能源结构转型速度不及预期、风电需求不及预期、竞争激烈程度增加、地缘风险、汇率 风险。 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 04 日 看好(维持) | 顾高臣 | 021-63325888*6119 | | --- | --- | | | gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S086052008 ...
南方传媒(601900):25Q1利润表现亮眼,分红力度创新高、股东回报提升
Orient Securities· 2025-05-04 06:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth driver [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.33, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is projected to be 9.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [2] - The company's current stock price is 16.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.77 billion yuan [3]
迎驾贡酒:Q1增速短期承压,看好中长期健康成长-20250503
Orient Securities· 2025-05-03 12:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].
京东方A:盈利能力大幅提升,显示龙头地位稳固-20250503
Orient Securities· 2025-05-03 12:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 198.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 109% year-on-year [3][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 174,543 - 2024A: 198,381 (13.7% growth) - 2025E: 223,692 (12.8% growth) - 2026E: 242,846 (8.6% growth) - 2027E: 263,808 (8.6% growth) [6] - Operating Profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 1,519 - 2024A: 4,931 (224.7% growth) - 2025E: 9,170 (86.0% growth) - 2026E: 13,570 (48.0% growth) - 2027E: 18,707 (37.9% growth) [6] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,547 - 2024A: 5,323 (109.0% growth) - 2025E: 8,380 (57.4% growth) - 2026E: 11,471 (36.9% growth) - 2027E: 14,776 (28.8% growth) [6] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.07 - 2024A: 0.14 - 2025E: 0.22 - 2026E: 0.30 - 2027E: 0.39 [6] Market Position and Product Development - The company remains a global leader in semiconductor display technology, with its LCD products maintaining the highest shipment volume globally [11] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing its market position in innovative applications, particularly in high-end LCD solutions [11] - The company achieved a flexible OLED shipment volume of nearly 140 million units in 2024, ranking second globally, with a target of 170 million units for 2025 [11]
分众传媒(002027):24年&25Q1业绩点评:业绩稳健高分红,关注并购新潮进展
Orient Securities· 2025-05-03 07:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 30 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-over-year. For the full year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 123 billion yuan, an increase of 3% year-over-year, and a net profit of 51.6 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.8 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 92%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.69% [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 54.5 billion yuan, 57.8 billion yuan, and 61.6 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.40, and 0.43 yuan [2] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.31 yuan per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 11.4 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year [1] - The company’s revenue from elevator media reached 115 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 3.87%, while cinema media revenue was 6.9 billion yuan, down 10.4% [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2024 was 66.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 39.6%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The company’s historical PE ratio over the past three years has been analyzed, indicating a stable valuation trend [8] Market Position and Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the acquisition of New Wave Media, which aligns with its core business in elevator media, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and expanding its user base [7] - The company has seen a 13.4% year-over-year increase in revenue from the daily consumer goods sector, contributing 62% of total revenue [7]
4月PMI点评:外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现
Orient Securities· 2025-05-03 05:07
| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件:4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI,其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%,较上月下降 1.5 个百分点;非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%,保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照:BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...