自有+授权打造中国领先的IP玩具公司 ——乐自天成（H02155.HK）招股说明书解读 2025年5月27日 作者：姜浩 执业证书编号S0930522010001 梁丹辉 执业证书编号S0930524070007 证券研究报告 核心观点 乐自天成：国内领先的 玩具公司 公司秉持"IP中枢"战略，持续开发和推出多品类IP玩具，包括静态/可动玩偶、发条玩具、变形机甲、拼装玩 具、毛绒玩具及衍生周边等等。截至2024年底，公司旗下拥有超过100个自有及授权IP。公司覆盖IP孵化和开发、 产品设计及供应链和销售渠道各个环节，按2024年GMV计，公司在中国多品类IP玩具公司中排名第二。 中国IP玩具市场较为分散，具有较大潜力 灼识咨询数据显示，2024年中国IP玩具市场规模达到756亿元，2020-2024年CAGR为11.7%，预计将在2024- 2029年间以17.2%的复合增速增长。同时，2024年中国人均IP玩具支出仅为53.6元/年，远低于日本的244.7元/ 年与美国的387.0元/年，后续仍有较大提升空间。按2024年GMV计算，公司2024年总GMV为9.3亿元，在中国IP 玩具市场中，公司在本土IP ...

2025 年 5 月 27 日 总量研究 中游制造业支撑利润增长 ——2025 年 4 月工业企业盈利数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 工业企业盈利恢复向好——2025年3月工业 企业盈利数据点评（2025-04-27） 关注工业企业利润修复的持续性——2025 年 1-2 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-03-27） 工业企业利润同比增速为何转正？——2024 年 12 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-01-27） 工业企业盈利增速将继续改善——2024 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-12-27） 工业企业盈利或迎来曙光——2024 年 10 月 工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-11-27） 工业企业利润增速预计何时转正？——2024 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-10-27） 工业企业利润增速为何转负？——2024 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, poised to benefit from real estate recovery, with its three wings of business gradually forming a second growth curve [3][11]. - The company has launched a strategic shift from traditional real estate transactions to comprehensive living services, encapsulated in its "One Body, Three Wings" strategy [1][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Beijing Lianjia in 2001, has evolved into the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, with a significant focus on digital transformation and integration of services [1][20]. - The company has a unique dual-class share structure, with core management holding nearly half of the voting rights, ensuring strategic control [28][29]. Real Estate Brokerage Business - The brokerage business benefits from a strong online and offline integration, with 50,000 active stores and 445,000 active agents by the end of 2024 [1]. - The company has developed a robust mechanism to address issues like fake listings and price discrepancies through its "Building Dictionary" and ACN network, enhancing transaction efficiency [1][10]. Home Decoration and Furnishing Business - The home decoration market is projected to reach approximately 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with the company leveraging its brokerage business to drive traffic and enhance service delivery through digitalization [2][10]. - Following the acquisition of Saintu Decoration, the company is in a phase of scaling its operations through a combination of vertical management and internet platform models [2][10]. Rental and Residential Development - The rental business, centered around the "Worry-Free Rental" model, aims for sustainable profitability by improving property turnover rates and reducing vacancy periods [2][10]. - The "Beihome" initiative is being piloted in major cities, with plans for expansion in 2025 [2][10]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see a net profit of 5.77 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28, 24, and 22 [3][11]. - The report highlights the stability of the brokerage business and the high growth potential of the home decoration and rental segments as key drivers for future profitability [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2025 ASCO conference highlights the impressive presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, with over 70 research projects selected, indicating a robust growth in domestic drug development [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.83 percentage points, ranking first among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index increased by 5.54%, surpassing the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 4.18 percentage points [1][16]. Company Research Progress - Recent developments include the IND application for HS-10510 by Haosen Pharmaceutical and ongoing clinical trials for several drugs from companies like Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [35]. Key Company Highlights - Hengrui Medicine has 69 research projects selected for the ASCO conference, covering various cancer types, showcasing its leadership in innovative drug development [23][26]. - Innovent Biologics will present clinical data for IBI363 and IBI343 at ASCO, indicating its strong pipeline in cancer immunotherapy [27][28]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has over 20 clinical progress reports accepted for presentation at ASCO, focusing on ADC therapies for various cancers [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2025 ASCO conference highlights the impressive presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, with over 70 research projects selected, indicating a robust growth in domestic drug development [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the increasing competitiveness of domestic drugs in the global market, particularly in oncology, as several innovative drugs are making significant progress [2][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.83 percentage points, ranking first among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.54%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 4.18 percentage points [1][16]. Company Research Progress - Recent developments include the IND application for HS-10510 by Haosen Pharmaceutical and ongoing clinical trials for several drugs by companies such as Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [35]. Key Company Highlights - Hengrui Medicine has 69 research projects selected for the ASCO conference, covering various cancer types, showcasing its leadership in innovative drug development [23][26]. - Innovent Biologics will present clinical data for IBI363 and IBI343 at ASCO, indicating its strong pipeline in oncology [27][28]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical has over 20 clinical progress reports accepted for presentation at ASCO, focusing on various cancer treatments [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three main areas: hospital payment support, expansion of consumer demand, and overseas market opportunities [3]. Key recommendations include Hengrui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [3].

Group 1: TMT Industry Insights - The report highlights that with the improvement of L3 level regulations by 2025, L2+ and above intelligent driving technologies are expected to accelerate penetration, benefiting third-party SoC manufacturers [1] - The trend of "chip embedding" is anticipated to bring high growth certainty to the industry, with recommendations for leading global and domestic SoC companies such as Nvidia and Horizon Robotics [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - In the first four months, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities reached 56.67 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with an average transaction floor price of 7,738 yuan per square meter, up 20.2% year-on-year [2] - The 30 core cities saw a total residential land transaction area of 27.74 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with an average transaction floor price of 13,318 yuan per square meter, up 28.5% year-on-year [2] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the 30 core cities was 17.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a rise in market activity [2] Group 3: Internet Media Company Overview - The report covers Multi-Point Intelligence, a SaaS company focusing on the digital transformation of local retailers, which possesses significant industry experience and data barriers [3] - Revenue growth projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.7%, 17.2%, and 16.4% year-on-year, with corresponding PS valuation multiples of 3.4x, 2.9x, and 2.5x [3] - The forecasted Non-IFRS net profits for the company are 122 million, 271 million, and 408 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [3] Group 4: Software and Robotics Sector - The report discusses the launch of the Kaihong Bot series by China Software International, emphasizing the ongoing development of the open-source Hongmeng ecosystem [4] - The net profit forecasts for China Software International from 2025 to 2027 are 640 million, 750 million, and 870 million yuan, respectively [4] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Company Insights - The report indicates that the company Lao Bai Xing is focusing on optimizing store layouts and expanding its franchise business while integrating a digital system [6] - The projected net profits for Lao Bai Xing from 2025 to 2027 are 702 million, 841 million, and 955 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 20%, and 14% [6] Group 6: Travel Industry Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported a revenue of 4.377 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 788 million yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year [7] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel for 2025 to 2027 are 3.393 billion, 4.060 billion, and 4.647 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [7]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 总量研究 医药主题基金表现亮眼，被动资金加仓科技赛道 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250526 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.5.19-2025.5.23）黄金价格大涨，国内权益市场小幅回调。行业方面， 本周医药生物、综合、有色金属行业涨幅居前，计算机、机械设备、通信行 业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周主被动权益基金表现分化，普通股票型基 金上涨 0.13%，股票指数基金回撤 0.42%。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内市场新成立基金 27 只，合计发行份额为 164.23 亿份。其中股票型基金 19 只、债券型基金 6 只、混合型基金 2 只。 全市场新发行基金 25 只，从类型来看，股票型基金 15 只、债券型基金 8 只、FOF 基金 1 只、混合型基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周医药主题基金表现优 势显著，净值上涨 4.57%，TMT 主题基金净值延续回落。截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日，本周医药、周期、消费、行业轮动、金融地产、行业均衡、新能源、 国防军工、TMT 主题基金涨跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.9%, while net profit decreased by 28.9% to 417 million yuan [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 587 million yuan, a decline of 4.8% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in overseas market revenue and improvements in product mix [2]. - The MINISO brand revenue grew by 16.5% year-on-year, with overseas revenue increasing by 30.3% due to a 24.6% rise in average store count [2]. - The total number of stores reached 7,768 by the end of Q1 2025, with a net decrease of 12 stores, while domestic stores decreased by 111 and overseas stores increased by 95 [3]. - The company returned a total of 990 million yuan to shareholders, including 100 million USD in cash dividends and 260 million yuan in share buybacks [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 20.415 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.1% [5]. - The projected profit attributable to equity shareholders for 2025 is 2.701 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.16 yuan [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.8% for 2025 [12]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on optimizing store quality and structure domestically while maintaining significant investments in overseas markets [4]. - The report highlights the importance of releasing operational leverage in overseas markets during peak seasons [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is exploring a second growth curve through diversified strategies and deep integration of digital intelligence systems [1][9] - The company has faced short-term performance pressure due to multiple factors, but the Torch project has improved gross margins [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network and optimizing its layout, with steady growth in its franchise business [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 22.36 billion, 519 million, and 496 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -0.36%, -44.13%, and -41.18% [5] - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per 10 shares [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 5.43 billion, 251 million, and 243 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.88%, -21.98%, and -21.59% [5] Operational Insights - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a focus on expanding in 11 key provinces [7] - The company has optimized its store layout by closing underperforming stores and increasing the proportion of franchise operations [7] - The company is enhancing its digital intelligence system to improve operational efficiency and cost optimization [8] Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve long-term stable growth driven by its franchise business and the Torch project, which has effectively improved gross margins [9] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 23.81 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.50% [10] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 702 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35.29% compared to 2024 [10] Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20 for 2025, 17 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [9] - The company’s estimated P/B ratio is projected to be 2.0 in 2025, 1.9 in 2026, and 1.8 in 2027 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the covered companies have investment ratings such as "Buy" and "Add", including China National Building Material Co., Ltd., China National Steel & Machinery Corporation, etc. [21][24] 2. Core Viewpoints - Suggest paying attention to investment opportunities related to the Belt and Road Initiative, including four major international engineering companies and companies like Shanghai Harbor and Keda Manufacturing. [3][18] - Although the real - estate market is on the path of stabilizing after a series of policies since the December 2024 Politburo meeting, it still needs to be consolidated in April, and continuous policy support is expected. [3] - Currently, it is recommended to focus on companies such as Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, etc., due to factors like improved foreign trade environment, expected increase in downstream demand, and product price increases. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - Special Topic: Focus on Belt and Road - Related Investment Opportunities - The Belt and Road Initiative aims to achieve infrastructure connectivity and sustainable development among countries along the routes. After more than a decade of construction, the infrastructure connectivity among countries along the routes has taken shape, with significant growth in railway transportation and an increase in the proportion of trade with BRI countries in China's total foreign trade. [3][5][8] - Investment opportunities related to the Belt and Road Initiative are suggested, including four major international engineering companies (Northern International, Sinomach, Sinoma International, and Sino - steel International) and companies like Shanghai Harbor and Keda Manufacturing. [3][18] 3.2 Profit Forecasts and Valuations of Main Covered Companies - The report provides profit forecasts and valuations for multiple companies from 2024 to 2027, including EPS, PE, PB, etc., and gives investment ratings such as "Buy" and "Add". [21][24] 3.3 Weekly Market Review - In the weekly market, the building and building materials industries showed different degrees of decline. Among them, the building index and building materials index both decreased, and different sub - sectors also had varying performance. [28][30][32] - Infrastructure public REITs also had different price fluctuations, with an average weekly increase of 1.73%, a monthly increase of 4.23%, and significant increases in the year - to - date and since IPO. [36][37] 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - In the real - estate market, data on new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas showed different trends. In addition, data on land transactions, real - estate transactions, social financing, and infrastructure investment are also provided. [39][48][58] - The new - signed contract data of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q1 are presented, showing different growth rates in different quarters. [87] 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - High - frequency data on various building materials such as cement, glass, photovoltaic glass, fiberglass, carbon fiber, and magnesium sand are provided, including price, production, inventory, etc. [99][102][110] - Data on upstream raw material prices and physical workloads are also included, such as waste paper, PVC, HDPE prices, and high - altitude machine rental rates, excavator working hours, etc. [148][156]