通信周观点： 1）DeepSeek-R1-0528 发布，推理能力增强、幻觉率降低。DeepSeek-R1-0528 仍然采用 DeepSeek V3 Base 模型作为 基座，模型参数为 685B，开源版本可支持 128K 上下文总长度。在 AIME 2025 测试中，新版模型准确率由旧版的 70% 提升至 87.5%，主要得益于模型在推理过程中的思维深度增强：新版模型平均每题使用 23K tokens，约为旧版的两倍。 此外，与旧版相比，更新后的模型在改写润色、总结摘要、阅读理解等场景中，幻觉率降低了约 45-50%。我们认为， 国产大模型能力的持续优化将加速 AI 推理需求增长，利好国产算力芯片及 AI 服务器厂商。2）英伟达发布 1Q25 财 报，Blackwell 整体表现强劲，预计贡献数据中心收入的 70%，并已登陆 AWS、谷歌云等四大云平台。GB200 散热难题 得到攻克，并已于 1Q25 出货；GB300 将于 3Q25 出货。我们看好英伟达服务器组装厂、高速光模块厂商、液冷供应商 迎来业绩放量。同时，受到美国出口管制影响，英伟达针对中国市场的 H20 芯片计提了 45 亿美元库存减值（低于 ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价-1.22%到 9497.00 美元/吨，沪铜-0.24%到 7.76 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加 工费周度指数跌至-43.56 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比周一降 0.10 万吨至 13.87 万吨，继续表现 去库。消费端，据 SMM，本周铜线缆企业开工率为 78.67%，环比下降 3.67 个百分点，同比增长 2.74 个百分点，低于 预计开工率 2.31 个百分点；国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比上升 5.27 个百分点至 75.90%，较预期值低 1.71 个 百分点，同比上升 17.32 个百分点。 铝：本周 LME 铝价-0.71%到 2448.50 美元/吨，沪铝-0.42%到 2.01 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消 费地电解铝锭库存 51.1 万吨，较周一下降 2.3 万吨，环比上周四下降 4.6 万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存 12.83 万 吨，较周一下降 0.19 万吨。成本端，据 SMM，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周回升 0.19 个百分点至 78.21%,主因部分 企业检修结束，运行产能回升；5 月 ...

核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 中国聚变能源公司进入公开招标阶段，可控核聚变板块有望迎来资本开支大周期。根据中核（上海)供应链管理 公司招标公告，中国聚变能源有限公司上海聚变科学研究中心建设工程方案设计项目进入公开招标阶段，资金 来源已经落实，我们看好该项目成为 BEST 项目之后的又一大规模投资项目，带动板块进入资本开支扩张周期。 当前我国可控核聚变正处于实验堆建设、工程堆验证阶段；看好可控核聚变产业在"十五五"期间有望进入密 集的资本开支期，看好可控核聚变板块资本开支扩张带来的投资机会。 液氮价格连续上涨，同比涨幅扩大，看好气体价格筑底回升。根据卓创资讯工业气体，自 250417 以来的 6 周， 液氮价格环比持续上涨，250529 当周液氮价格达 496 元/吨，同比+8.0%，继 250522 当周同比近两年来首次转 正之后，同比涨幅继续扩大。从供给端看，检修规模同比并无明显扩大，我们认为一方面根据隆众资讯，25052 9 当周液氮库容率仅为 32.4%，同比-9.5pct，库存较低导致检修带来的局部 ...

事件： 根据极目新闻报道，据河北衡水武邑县应急管理局通报，5 月 30 日 18 时 30 分左右，武邑县一化工企业车间发生 煮洗釜爆炸。事故发生后，市县消防、医疗、公安、应急等部门组织力量赶赴现场，全力开展救援处置工作。现场救 援工作已结束，事故造成 5 人死亡、2 人受伤（无生命危险），事故原因正在调查中。河北一名化工行业从业者曾接触 过煮洗釜爆炸事故，据介绍，使用煮洗釜的化工企业一般会生产低氮硝化纤维素。该从业者指出，使用煮洗釜，通常 会在釜内加入一些酸碱类清洗剂，会进行高低温切换或加压加温。如果煮洗釜里面的杂质排不干净，容易形成硝化物 沉积，而硝化物沉积遇到震动、撞击、高温高压，易生成硝化甘油，有诱发爆炸的可能。 点评： 硝化棉下游主要集中于涂料和油墨领域，具备易燃等特征。硝化纤维素是一种有机高分子化合物，俗称硝化棉或 棉花火药。根据北化股份公司公告，硝化棉呈白色纤维状，可降解难溶于水，溶于丙酮、乙醚乙醇混合溶液，易燃， 无烟，瞬间放出大量气体。硝化棉最初应用于军事领域，是制造枪炮发射药的主要原材料。之后，人们发现部分品种 的硝化棉具有良好的成膜性能，可以用于金属、木材等材料的表面涂层，自此硝化棉开始 ...

【一周一议】 行业公司重组转型进程加快。5 月 16 日，证监会正式发布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，明确支 持符合商业逻辑的跨界并购、建立重组股份对价分期支付机制、新设重组简易审核程序、吸收合并锁定期差异化设置、 鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组等。建筑建材行业重组转型在加快，①4 月 1 日，星空科技拟以 8.03 亿元的对价 收购中旗新材 24.97%股份，星空科技的一致行动人陈耀民拟以 1.61 亿元的对价收购中旗新材 5.01%股份。②5 月 27 日，富煌钢构拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式（拟募集资金不超过 4 亿元）购买中科视界 100%股权。③5 月 30 日， 中天精装全资子公司中天精艺接到中经芯玑告知函，中经芯玑拟以 1.05 亿元、28.82 元/每注册资本的价格认购远见 智存 364.3303 万元新增注册资本。④5 月 31 日，菲林格尔发布《关于筹划控制权变更事项的停牌公告》，实际控制人 丁福如正在筹划公司股份协议转让事宜，该事项可能导致公司控制权发生变更。 继续关注"一带一路"进展，非洲方向看好建材出海第一股科达制造。5 月 25 日，首届全球企业共建高质量"一带 ...

本周化工市场综述 本周市场有所震荡，其中申万基础化工指数下跌 0.66%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.42%。标的方面，本周表现最佳的 产品是康宽，受益于竞争对手爆炸，康宽相关标的表现较佳，尤其是 K 胺标的。基础化工行业边际变化，建议关注 以下三个事件，一是山东友道化学有限公司一车间发生爆炸事故，公司是康宽的主要生产企业之一，往后看，康宽 及其卡脖子中间体 K 胺价格有持续上行的可能；二是日本巨头三井化学宣布决定退出其全资子公司下关三井化学生 产的三氟化氮（NF3）业务，生产将于 2026 年 3 月底停止，亨斯迈集团将关闭位于德国默尔斯的马来酸酐工厂，旭 化成决定退出甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）单体、甲基丙烯酸环己酯（CHMA）、聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯（PMMA）树脂以及苯乙 烯-丁二烯（SB）乳液业务，海外化工巨头供给出清继续。石油方面，OPEC+维持当前石油产量配额计划，5 月 31 日 开会讨论 7 月增产事宜，我们观点没变，短期油价或将继续承压，中期看美国页岩油产量有见顶的可能。关税方 面，美国与其它国家的谈判依旧处于胶着状态，比如：先前特朗普威胁自 6 月 1 日起对欧盟征收 50%关税，后面同欧 盟委员 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The restructuring and transformation process of companies in the construction and building materials industry is accelerating, supported by new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2][13] - The "Belt and Road" initiative continues to progress, with a focus on construction materials exports, particularly for Keda Manufacturing in Africa, which is seen as a leading player in the market [3][15] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the industry, with specific price movements and production statistics for various materials such as cement, glass, and aluminum [4][16] Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses recent regulatory changes that support cross-border mergers and acquisitions in the construction and building materials sector, including specific transactions involving companies like Xingkong Technology and Fuhuang Steel [2][13] Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 368 RMB per ton, down 6 RMB year-on-year and 3 RMB month-on-month, with an average shipment rate of 47.8% [4][16] - Float glass prices averaged 1270.96 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.97% [4][16] - The report notes a decline in the steel market as it enters a traditional demand off-season, with potential impacts on pricing [4][16] National Subsidy Tracking - The Shanghai government has launched a plan to boost consumption, focusing on housing needs and the renovation of old neighborhoods, which may benefit related construction material companies [5][17] Important Changes - Several companies, including Sichuan Road and Bridge and Huaxin Cement, are undergoing significant transactions and restructuring efforts, indicating active market movements [6][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25.2 billion, 36.8 billion, and 50.0 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding net profit of -2.56 million, 0.03 million, and 3.53 million RMB [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PS valuation of 6.0, 4.1, and 3.1 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company expects revenue of 1,120 million RMB, with a growth rate of 111.22% [8] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 1,649 million RMB, with a growth rate of 47.20% [8] - The company anticipates a net profit of -4,337 million RMB for 2023, improving to -482 million RMB in 2024 [8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -8.95 RMB in 2023, improving to -0.99 RMB in 2024 [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly, with a gross profit of 94 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 284 million RMB in 2024 [11] Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.28 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 9.2% due to customer transitions affecting ADAS shipments [9] - The total shipment volume in Q1 2025 was 109,000 units, down 9.8% year-over-year, with ADAS shipments declining by 16.8% [9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.5%, reflecting an increase of 11.2 percentage points year-over-year [9] - The Robotics segment showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 87.0% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [9] Future Outlook - The company expects a rebound in ADAS shipments in Q2 2025, driven by increased production from major clients [9] - The introduction of new robotic components and products is anticipated to further enhance revenue streams in the second half of 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the breast cancer treatment market, highlighting significant growth potential for innovative drugs, particularly in the HER2 and CDK4/6 inhibitor segments [6][34]. Core Insights - The breast cancer patient population is large, with approximately 2.3 million new cases globally in 2022, making it the second most common cancer type [1][14]. - The breast cancer drug market is projected to grow from $28.1 billion in 2023 to $49.3 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of about 15% [1][34]. - Key drugs such as CDK4/6 inhibitors and HER2-targeted therapies are expected to drive market growth, with specific products like ribociclib and abemaciclib projected to exceed $30 billion and $53 billion in sales by 2024, respectively [1][40]. Summary by Sections Breast Cancer Patient Demographics - Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy among women, with a significant number of patients requiring urgent treatment [14][17]. - In China, the number of new breast cancer cases was approximately 360,000 in 2022, indicating a high demand for treatment options [14][15]. Market Size and Growth - The breast cancer treatment market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the introduction of innovative therapies and a shift in treatment paradigms [1][34]. - The sales of CDK4/6 inhibitors and HER2-targeted therapies are expected to contribute significantly to market expansion, with total sales reaching $28.1 billion in 2023 [1][34]. HER2 Positive Breast Cancer - HER2 positive breast cancer accounts for about 20% of breast cancer cases, with ADC therapies like T-DXd projected to generate over $38 billion in sales by 2024 [3][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for HER2 ADCs to penetrate early-stage and low-expression patient segments, further expanding market opportunities [3][44]. Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) - TNBC represents a significant unmet clinical need, with various innovative therapies under development [4][26]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying effective targets for TNBC treatment, with several candidates showing promise in clinical trials [4][26]. Hormone Receptor Positive/HER2 Negative Breast Cancer - This subtype, which constitutes about 65% of breast cancer cases, is seeing advancements in oral SERD therapies and a surge in CDK4/6 inhibitor approvals [5][30]. - The report notes that the treatment landscape for this subtype is well-established, with ongoing innovations expected to enhance patient outcomes [5][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies making strides in breast cancer treatments, including Heng Rui Medicine, Kelong Biotechnology, and Kangfang Biology, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market [6][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a gross margin increase driven by cost reductions despite a decline in the proportion of lower-priced models [3]. - The company has stabilized sales of its extended-range models, with future growth anticipated from new pure electric models [4]. - The company’s strong product development capabilities and strategic management are expected to support long-term growth, particularly during the high-pressure period for new electric vehicles in 2025-2026 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 revenue reached 25.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4% [2]. - The company delivered 93,000 vehicles in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.5% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was 1 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year and 75.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 3.9% [2]. Future Guidance - The company projects Q2 deliveries between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% to 17.9% [4]. - Revenue guidance for Q2 is set at 34.5 to 33.8 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 2.5% to 6.7% [4]. - The company expects to maintain its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits projected at 10.76 billion, 13.71 billion, and 17.09 billion yuan respectively [5].