Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly for companies with high dividend support and strong growth potential in 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing weak domestic order intake since May, with government subsidies losing their stimulating effect on demand. However, there are long-term investment opportunities for leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations [4][11]. - The new tobacco sector is expected to see a mid-single-digit growth in H1 2025, with a potential for double-digit growth when excluding the impact of illegal vaping products in North America. The HNB business is anticipated to accelerate in H2 2025 [4][12]. - The paper industry is stabilizing with paper prices holding steady, but overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a forecast of continued weak pricing [4][13]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are showing high growth potential, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear performance and innovative product offerings [4][14]. - The two-wheeler sector is facing short-term pressure but is expected to rebound in H2 2025 with the implementation of new national standards and the continuation of trade-in policies [4][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic order intake has been weak since May, with government subsidies losing effectiveness. There is a recommendation to focus on leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations for long-term investment [4][11]. - Specific companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse, which are expected to benefit from strategic channel improvements and product innovations [4][11]. New Tobacco Sector - British American Tobacco has updated its H1 2025 earnings expectations, forecasting low single-digit growth, with a potential acceleration in H2 2025. The HNB business is expected to see significant growth due to successful product launches in key markets [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance brands and the growth opportunities within the industry as regulations tighten against illegal products [4][12]. Paper Industry - Paper prices are stabilizing, with prices for various paper types remaining unchanged. However, demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the overall pricing outlook remains weak [4][13]. - The report notes that inventory levels are high, and supply pressures are expected to increase due to rising imports from Brazil [4][13]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Sector - The report highlights the importance of innovation and clear performance metrics in the light consumer goods and pet sectors. Companies like Guibao Pet are noted for their strong market positioning and growth potential [4][14]. - The introduction of new products and the expansion of online sales channels are key growth drivers [4][14]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing short-term pressure but is expected to recover in H2 2025 with new regulations and product launches. Companies like Yadi Holdings are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and effective channel strategies [4][15].

投资建议 1）服装品牌：海澜之家顺应消费降级趋势商业转型拓展创新市区奥莱业态，未来开店空间较大且具备较强盈利能力， 同时主业成人装筑底恢复，分红水平近年维持在高位，安踏体育多品牌矩阵持续发力，且有望受益于亚玛芬业绩高 增。同时推荐全棉时代品牌心智破圈，棉柔巾、卫生巾市占率持续提升的——稳健医疗。 2）上游制造：造板块短期板块情绪或受到美国特朗普加征关税的影响有所调整，我们认为此次超预期加征关税将推 动制造行业进一步洗牌，纺织制造龙头具备较强抗风险能力，可更好地应对外部宏观不确定性的影响，因此订单或 进一步向龙头企业转移，利好龙头份额提升。推荐制造龙头——浙江自然、申洲国际等。 行情回顾及公告新闻 行情回顾：上周（2025 年 6 月 2 日-2025 年 6 月 6 日）沪深 300、深证成指、上证综指涨跌幅分别为 0.88%、1.42%、 1.13%，纺织服装板块上升 1.89%。板块对比来看，纺织服装最近一周涨跌幅在 28 个一级行业板块中位列第 11。个 股方面，浪莎股份、华升股份、迎丰股份涨幅居前，华纺股份、跨境通、三房巷跌幅居前。 核心观点 露露乐蒙 25Q1 增长稳健。露露乐蒙本周公布 FY25Q ...

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 淮建 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "25 深铁 03"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 04"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净 价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"23 中行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期 限(年) | 估值价格 偏离(%) | 估值净价 (元) | 估值收益 | 当日估值 收益(%) | 票面利率 (%) | 隐含评 级 | 主体评 级 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 率偏离 | | | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | | | | | 24 淮建 01 | 4.28 | -0.25 | 101.55 | 6.20 | ...

业绩简评 2025 年 6 月 5 日公司披露发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配 套资金暨关联交易预案，公司拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式 向宁波甬芯等 11 名交易对方购买其合计持有的中芯宁波 94.366%股权，并拟向不超过 35 名符合条件的特定对象发行股票 募集配套资金。 经营分析 公司转型 IDM 模型，实现芯片设计+晶圆制造全产业链布局。本 次收并购预案发布前，公司以 Fabless 模式运营，专注于提供人 工智能与多媒体、车载电子、物联网、数据存储等领域的芯片解决 方案，产品广泛应用于超高清智能显示、智慧视觉、车载电子、人 工智能、物联网和固态存储等领域。若收并购案完成，公司将具备 高端滤波器、MEMS 等特种工艺代工领域的生产制造能力，依托 射频前端器件领域的技术优势，将公司产品应用进一步拓展到智 能手机、智能网联汽车等需求相对旺盛的领域。 拟收购优质晶圆代工资产，开拓公司业务新增长点。随着 5G 商用 的持续深化，通信设备对射频前端器件的性能要求不断攀升。5G 手机支持的通信频段从 4G 时代的 20-30 个扩展至 50 个以上，单 机滤波器用量从约 40 个提升至 70 个。中芯宁波是国 ...

- Artificial Intelligence Global Asset Allocation Model: The model applies machine learning to asset allocation, using factor investment to score and rank assets, and ultimately constructs a monthly frequency quantitative equal-weight allocation strategy for global assets[35] - Construction Process: The model suggests weights for June as follows: Treasury Index (68.18%), ICE Brent Oil (13.35%), Nikkei 225 Index (11.60%), and Nasdaq Index (6.87%). The weights for ICE Brent Oil and Nikkei 225 Index were increased, while the weights for Treasury and German DAX Index were decreased[35][38] - Evaluation: The model has shown superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions, including annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown[35] - Testing Results: From January 2021 to May 2025, the model's annualized return is 6.54%, Sharpe ratio is 0.75, maximum drawdown is -6.66%, excess annualized return is 1.09%, excess Sharpe ratio is 0.19, and excess maximum drawdown is -8.67%. The benchmark's annualized return is 5.05%, Sharpe ratio is 0.54, and maximum drawdown is -12.67%[35][39] - Stock-Bond Allocation Model: The model is based on macro timing modules and risk budgeting framework, producing weights for three different risk profiles: aggressive, stable, and conservative[40] - Construction Process: For June, the stock weights for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 45%, 13.92%, and 0%, respectively. The model's signals for May were 50% for economic growth and 40% for monetary liquidity[40][42] - Evaluation: The model has performed well historically, with all three profiles showing superior performance compared to the benchmark in various dimensions[40] - Testing Results: From January 2005 to May 2025, the annualized returns for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 19.90%, 10.97%, and 6.04%, respectively. The benchmark's annualized return is 8.50%. The Sharpe ratios for aggressive, stable, and conservative profiles are 1.28, 1.18, and 1.51, respectively, compared to the benchmark's 0.51[40][47] - Dividend Style Timing Model: The model uses economic growth and monetary liquidity indicators to construct a timing strategy for the dividend index, showing significant stability improvement compared to the full return of the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Construction Process: For May, the model recommended a 100% position in the CSI Dividend Index. Most economic growth indicators were bullish, while monetary liquidity signals were cautious, resulting in a composite signal of 100%[48] - Evaluation: The timing strategy has shown stable performance, with significant improvements in annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown compared to the CSI Dividend Index[48] - Testing Results: The annualized return of the timing strategy is 15.74%, Sharpe ratio is 0.89, and maximum drawdown is -21.70%. The CSI Dividend Index's annualized return is 11.26%, Sharpe ratio is 0.56, and maximum drawdown is -36.80%[48][51]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.93 CNY based on a 15x valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a market share of nearly 70% in the gypsum board market, which has a size of approximately 150-200 billion CNY. The company aims to enhance the consumption attributes of gypsum boards, reduce costs, expand product categories, and accelerate internationalization [2][14]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on waterproof materials and coatings, with significant revenue growth in both segments [3]. - The company has implemented a restricted stock incentive plan, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of at least 14.22%, 16.12%, and 17.08% for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Gypsum Board Consumption Attributes - The company has a gypsum board market share of 67.38%, with a production volume of 2.165 billion square meters in 2023 [14]. - The company is focused on cost reduction, with a projected unit cost of 3.71 CNY per square meter in 2024, down by 0.19 CNY from the previous year [52]. - The company is expanding its product categories, including light steel keels and powder mortar, and is investing in gypsum fiber boards for interior and partition walls [2][63]. Section 2: Waterproof and Coating Business Expansion - The waterproofing materials segment has reached a revenue scale among the top three in the industry, while the coatings segment is expanding through acquisitions, including a significant merger with Jiaboli [3]. - The company’s coating production capacity is expected to increase from 103,000 tons to over 1.3 million tons by the end of 2024 [3]. Section 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts revenues of 28.168 billion CNY, 30.126 billion CNY, and 32.317 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [4][8]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.142 billion CNY, 4.449 billion CNY, and 4.813 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the photovoltaic industry, indicating a potential for recovery driven by market forces and government policies [4][38]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant supply-side challenges, with nominal capacity exceeding 1000 GW, leading to a prolonged period of losses across the supply chain [8][17]. - Government initiatives and self-discipline among enterprises are expected to facilitate a turnaround in the industry, with a focus on market-driven solutions [4][38]. - Domestic demand is projected to remain stable, supported by policy measures and a robust global demand outlook, with an expected growth in new installations of 5%-10% in 2025 [4][39]. Supply Side Summary - The supply-side issues in the photovoltaic industry have been exacerbated, prompting top-level policy interventions aimed at resolving structural contradictions [11][38]. - The industry has seen a trend of mergers and acquisitions, particularly among second and third-tier battery and component manufacturers, indicating a market-driven supply-side clearing process [12][38]. - The report highlights the importance of market forces in addressing the oversupply situation, with expectations for improved profitability as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [5][38]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand is expected to remain stable, with policies in place to support a smooth transition and mitigate fears of a sharp decline in demand [4][39]. - Global demand for photovoltaic products is anticipated to continue growing, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between supply and demand to ensure sustainable growth in the industry [4][39]. Technological Advancements Summary - The report identifies three key technological pathways that could provide competitive advantages, particularly in the context of cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4]. - The advancement of new materials and processes, such as low-silver and no-silver metallization, is highlighted as critical for reducing costs across various technology routes [4][5]. - Companies with strong cross-border operational capabilities are expected to gain a competitive edge in the globalized supply chain [4][5]. Financial Health Summary - The financial health of the photovoltaic supply chain remains under pressure, with many companies experiencing cash flow losses and high debt levels [17][29]. - The report notes that most companies have asset-liability ratios exceeding 70%, indicating significant financial strain and limited fundraising capabilities for second and third-tier firms [17][29]. - A focus on cash management and reduced capital expenditures is evident as companies navigate the challenging financial landscape [21][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the areas of virtual assets and Web3.0 development, suggesting a strong investment opportunity in these sectors [2][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global tariff negotiations, particularly the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations and their potential impact on market dynamics [9]. - There is a notable increase in the quality and risk appetite of Hong Kong assets, with a focus on asset trading platforms as valuable investment opportunities [9]. - The report highlights the active performance of virtual asset-related stocks in Hong Kong, driven by stablecoin policies, and anticipates further regulatory developments in this area [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Situation Tracking 1.1 Education - The K12 education sector shows strong growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth for winter training sessions [4]. - Recent product launches in AI education indicate ongoing innovation in the sector [4][17]. 1.2 Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is experiencing disruptions due to U.S.-EU tariff policies, with cautious price increases observed among brands [4][19]. - LVMH expresses confidence in the Chinese market despite recent consumption declines, indicating a long-term positive outlook [21]. 1.3 Coffee and Beverage Chains - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with recent subsidies from platforms like JD.com [4]. - Coffee futures have seen a significant decline, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies like Luckin Coffee [4][27]. 1.4 E-commerce - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com continue to compete aggressively in the delivery and retail sectors, impacting short-term profitability [4]. - The report notes strong performance in the "618" shopping festival, with significant growth in various product categories [32]. 2. Platform & Technology 2.1 Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector shows resilience, with Tencent Music and other platforms benefiting from scale effects [4][33]. - Recent transactions, such as HYBE's sale of SM Entertainment shares to Tencent Music, highlight strategic movements within the industry [34]. 2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization is reported at $337.44 billion, reflecting a 4% decline [38]. - The introduction of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong marks a significant step in regulating digital asset activities [41].

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

本周观点 持续关注全球关税谈判： 投资逻辑 持续关注全球关税谈判。1）综合港股 IPO（无论是 A+H 还是新股 IPO）和成交量等因素来看，港股的资产质量、 风险偏好等都有显著提升，积极寻找港股的机会，其中资产交易平台的价值凸显。2）我们持续看好香港虚拟资 产、Web3.0 市场的发展，由于稳定币政策刺激，近期香港虚拟资产的相关个股表现活跃。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是香港虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台。短期个股层面涨幅较大，建议关注业务持续 落地能力。3）我们看好美股中概回港趋势。 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：结合近期财报看，K12 教培行业景气良好，头部机构寒假培训收入增速多在 20%以上，非学科课程续班率 提升，继续看好头部机构转型后持续扩大市场份额。另外，上周高途推出毛豆爱学 AI 课堂、作业帮上线免费高 考志愿填报产品，持续关注 AI 教育进展。 奢侈品：美国对欧盟关税政策对板块的扰动持续。基本面来看，宏观经济影响奢侈 ...