Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing significant advancements in smart driving technologies, with a notable increase in the penetration rates of L2 and above functionalities in passenger vehicles, reaching 30.4% as of July 2025, up 15 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report highlights the strategic partnerships and market entries of key players, such as Horizon's collaboration with Hello to accelerate Robotaxi commercialization and Hesai Technology's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of high-resolution cameras and advanced driving chips, with 800 million pixel cameras expected to reach a penetration rate of 66.7% by July 2025, and NVIDIA's driving chip market share increasing to 57.5% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce mandatory national standards to set safety thresholds for autonomous driving technologies [1]. - Key developments include Xiaopeng Motors entering five European markets with new models and the successful road testing of Robotaxis in Dubai and Singapore [1][15][16]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - By July 2025, the penetration rate of 800 million pixel front-view cameras in passenger vehicles is projected to be 66.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points [2]. - The market share of LiDAR in passenger vehicles is expected to rise to 10.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points [2]. Smart Driving - The penetration rate of L2 and above smart driving functionalities in passenger vehicles has increased by 15 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 30.4% as of July 2025 [3]. - The report notes that the penetration rates for various sensors, including front-view cameras and LiDAR, have shown consistent growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Xiaopeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, and companies like Hesai Technology and Horizon Robotics for components [4][5].

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 公用环保 202509 第 5 期 优于大市 2035 年国家自主贡献明确，风光装机容量力争达到 36 亿千瓦 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.07%，公用事业指数上涨 0.28%，环 保指数上涨 1.06%，周相对收益率分别为-0.79%和-0.01%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 6 和第 4 名。电力板块 子板块中，火电下跌 0.82%；水电上涨 0.82%，新能源发电上涨 1.09%； 水务板块上涨 2.74%；燃气板块下跌 0.63%。 重要事件：国家领导人在联合国气候变化峰会上发表致辞，宣布中国新 一轮国家自主贡献：到 2035 年，中国全经济范围温室气体净排放量比 峰值下降 7%-10%，非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重达到 30%以上， 风电和太阳能发电总装机容量达到 2020 年的 6 倍以上、力争达到 36 亿 千瓦。国家能源局发布数据显示，8 月全社会用电量 10154 亿千瓦时， 同比增长 5.0%。从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量 164 亿千瓦时，同比 增长 9.7%；第二产业用电量 5981 亿千 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][53]. Core Insights - The global cloud service provider (CSP) AI arms race is accelerating, benefiting the computing infrastructure development, which is considered a primary growth area. Key recommendations include focusing on optical devices and modules, communication equipment, liquid cooling solutions, and edge computing [4][50]. - The three major telecom operators are viewed as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payout ratios, suggesting a long-term investment strategy in these operators [4][50]. - The report highlights significant advancements in AI computing infrastructure, including Alibaba's launch of the new generation of AI servers and Nvidia's substantial investment in OpenAI, which is expected to deploy at least 10GW of Nvidia systems [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Alibaba Cloud launched the new generation of the "Panjun 128" ultra-node AI server, which supports 128 AI computing chips per cabinet and achieves a power density of 350kW [2][12]. - ZTE showcased a super-node server supporting 64 GPUs and introduced its self-developed 51.2T switching chip [3][29]. - Nvidia announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, with plans to deploy 10GW of systems, marking a historic investment in AI infrastructure [3][4]. Market Performance Review - The communication index fell by 0.28% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.07%, resulting in a relative return of -1.35% [3][41]. - Within the sector, fiber optic cables, communication equipment manufacturers, and IDC showed relatively strong performance [3][41]. Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, and ZTE are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 estimated at 6.72, 8.08, and 1.79 respectively [5][49]. - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for the communication sector [49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of continuously monitoring the development of AI computing infrastructure and suggests a focus on specific companies such as China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE, and Guanghetong for investment opportunities [4][50].

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of September 26, 2025, is 2.32%, while the actual yield is 1.88%, indicating a significant deviation[19]

- The report mentions the "CSI 300 Quality Index" model, which selects 50 stocks from the CSI 300 index based on their stable operations and performance in profitability, profit stability, and profit quality dimensions [11] - The CSI 300 Quality Index is constructed by evaluating stocks within the CSI 300 index based on specific criteria such as profitability, stability, and quality of earnings. The index aims to identify companies with robust financial health and consistent performance [11] - The CSI 300 Quality Index is designed to track high-quality stocks, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and stable earnings. The methodology involves selecting 50 stocks from the CSI 300 index that meet the defined criteria [11] - The CSI 300 Quality Index is evaluated positively for its focus on high-quality stocks, which may provide better risk-adjusted returns compared to broader indices [11] - The CSI 300 Quality Index does not include specific backtesting results or performance metrics in the report [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9][36]. - As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level; the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 3.8%, a decline from July. There was still deflation risk with CPI at - 0.4% and PPI at - 2.9%. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. Since late August, stocks and bonds have gradually become desensitized. Considering the sluggish economy in August, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. Both the term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened [1][9]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 35BP, at a relatively low historical level. In August, the downward pressure on the domestic economy continued to increase, and there was still deflation risk. The bond market adjustment was mainly due to the disappointment in 2024 and changes in the macro - narrative. It is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [2][10]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of September 26, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 8BP, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the situation of 30 - year treasury bonds, it is expected that the trading focus of the bond market will shift to fundamentals, and the bond market is expected to rebound in the short term [3][11]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.3 trillion. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 233,878 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.9% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [12]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large, but it decreased significantly compared with the week before last. A total of 1,386 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, all of which were local government bonds. By term, 161 billion yuan with a 15 - year term, 482 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 743 billion yuan with a 30 - year term were issued [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 256 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 12,544 billion yuan, accounting for 13.4% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume increased by 91 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.1% [29]. 3.3.2 Yields - The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations last week. With a tight end - of - quarter liquidity situation, market rumors about fund fee reform and large banks' bond purchases, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and the yields of ultra - long bonds reached new highs. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by 1BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 3BP respectively [36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 35BP, a change of 3BP from the week before last, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [46]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was relatively low. The benchmark spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 8BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 19BP, with changes of 1BP and 4BP respectively from the week before last, at the 8% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [47]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2512 closed at 114.19 yuan, a decrease of 0.6%. The total trading volume was 742,500 lots (- 56,124 lots), and the open interest was 171,700 lots (an increase of 2,178 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, and the open interest increased slightly [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [5][53]. Core Viewpoints - The global cloud service providers (CSP) are accelerating the AI arms race, benefiting the computing infrastructure development, which is considered the main track for investment [4][50]. - The report highlights the importance of the three major telecom operators as significant assets for dividend allocation, emphasizing their stable operations and increasing dividend payout ratios [4][50]. - Key recommended stocks for the upcoming week include China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, ZTE Corporation, and Guanghetong [4][50]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Alibaba Cloud launched the new generation of the "Panjun 128" ultra-node AI server, which supports various AI chips and has a power density of up to 350kW [2][12]. - ZTE Corporation showcased a super-node server supporting 64 GPUs and introduced its self-developed 51.2T switching chip [3][29]. - NVIDIA announced a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, with plans to deploy at least 10GW of NVIDIA systems [3][29]. Market Performance Review - The communication index decreased by 0.28% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07%, resulting in a relative return of -1.35% [3][41]. - Among the sub-sectors, fiber optic cables, communication equipment manufacturers, and IDC performed relatively well [3][41]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - China Mobile: Outperform the Market, with an estimated EPS of 6.72 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 15.74 [5]. - Zhongji Xuchuang: Outperform the Market, with an estimated EPS of 8.08 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 51.18 [5]. - ZTE Corporation: Outperform the Market, with an estimated EPS of 1.79 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 24.83 [5].

Group 1: Overseas ESG Hot Events - The EU's 2035 climate target submission has been delayed due to member state disagreements, highlighting policy uncertainty in climate action [2][10] - Schneider Electric signed a carbon removal agreement to remove 31,000 tons of CO₂, marking a shift from pilot projects to mainstream durable reduction solutions [2][6] - Companies like Mercedes-Benz and McDonald's are leading decarbonization efforts, with Mercedes-Benz constructing a 140 MW wind farm to meet 20% of its green electricity needs [2][6] Group 2: Domestic ESG Hot Events - China's low-carbon transition is moving from pilot projects to systematic deployment, with a national electrification rate of 28.8% surpassing that of Europe and the US [2][21] - Shenzhen issued 4 billion yuan in offshore RMB sustainable bonds, while Hong Kong's MTR signed a 30 billion HKD green syndicated loan, showcasing ongoing green finance innovations [2][21] - The introduction of unified carbon measurement standards and high-quality development guidelines for industrial parks reflects a shift towards more precise and quantifiable ESG governance [2][21]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains positive, while Index B shows a significant increase, indicating continued economic recovery[1] - The seasonal comparison shows Index B standardized increased by 0.43, significantly above historical averages, suggesting ongoing domestic economic growth momentum[1] - Investment and real estate sectors are performing well, while consumer sector conditions remain relatively stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to rise by approximately 1.5% month-on-month in September, while non-food prices are projected to remain flat, leading to an overall CPI increase of about 0.3%[13] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year forecast recovery to -2.4% due to a low base effect[13] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of October 3, 2025[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of October 3 is 2.37%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,190.38[19]

Group 1 - The overall performance of upstream resource products remains weak, but there are signs of recovery on a month-on-month basis, with coal prices rising and the oil and petrochemical sectors showing improvement [4] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, electrical equipment shows month-on-month improvement, while machinery performs well on the domestic demand side but faces pressure from external demand; the automotive sector remains at a low level, and the textile and apparel sector exhibits a mixed pattern [4] - The downstream consumer sector shows stable performance in home appliances, with increased consumption resilience; however, the food and beverage sector remains weak under price pressures, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors show divergence, particularly with a continued decline in traditional Chinese medicine prices [4] Group 2 - Supportive services and finance sectors show month-on-month improvement in banks and a recovery in the funding environment; non-bank financial services remain active but with slowing growth; transportation shows divergence with container shipping rates rebounding while overall shipping rates face pressure; the environmental protection sector shows improvement with positive indicators [4] - The chemical industry shows a mixed performance with excess returns tracking indicators related to fuel oil and methanol futures prices, indicating a correlation with market movements [5][10] - The steel industry shows excess returns correlated with iron ore and steel production metrics, indicating a relationship with operational rates and inventory levels [21][24] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector shows excess returns linked to various high-frequency indicators, including LME base metal indices and copper prices, suggesting a strong correlation with market trends [30][31] - The construction materials sector's excess returns are associated with cement price indices and glass settlement prices, indicating a relationship with construction activity [32][36] - The coal industry shows excess returns linked to thermal coal and coking coal prices, reflecting market dynamics and demand fluctuations [39][42] Group 4 - The oil and petrochemical sector's excess returns are influenced by gasoline and diesel wholesale prices, as well as production capacity utilization rates, indicating a strong correlation with market conditions [46][47] - The electrical equipment sector's excess returns are tracked against the prices of photovoltaic components and polysilicon, suggesting a relationship with renewable energy trends [50][51] - The automotive sector's excess returns are linked to tire production rates and average daily sales of passenger vehicles, indicating a correlation with consumer demand [53][58] Group 5 - The machinery sector's excess returns are associated with various price indices, indicating a relationship with global shipping rates and equipment pricing [60][66] - The transportation sector shows excess returns correlated with container freight indices, reflecting market conditions and trade dynamics [67][70] - The electronic sector's excess returns are linked to indices such as the DXI and NAND flash prices, indicating a relationship with technology market trends [72][74] Group 6 - The light industry sector's excess returns are tracked against TDI prices and real estate transaction metrics, indicating a correlation with housing market activity [78][83] - The textile and apparel sector's excess returns are influenced by various textile price indices, reflecting market conditions and consumer preferences [90][93] - The retail sector shows excess returns linked to order price indices, indicating a relationship with consumer spending trends [97][100] Group 7 - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's excess returns are correlated with food product price indices and wholesale vegetable prices, indicating a relationship with agricultural market conditions [101][106] - The food and beverage sector's excess returns are influenced by prices of staple food products and agricultural wholesale prices, reflecting market dynamics [113][117] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector's excess returns are linked to traditional Chinese medicine price indices, indicating a correlation with market trends [118][123]