Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing strong investment in AI computing power, particularly in ASICs, storage modules, and edge-side innovations. Despite a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, the electronic sector has shown resilience with a 0.95% increase, driven by strong performance in components [1][11]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electronic sector in 2025, driven by macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles, suggesting a valuation expansion trend [1]. - The report also notes that major companies like TI are investing over $60 billion in new and expanded semiconductor manufacturing facilities, reflecting confidence in long-term demand [2]. - The introduction of new AI glasses by Meta is expected to enhance user experience, prompting a recommendation to focus on domestic SoC companies [3]. - The report indicates that the price increase for storage products in Q2 2025 is better than expected, with NAND Flash prices projected to rise by 3-8% and DRAM prices for server DDR4 expected to increase by 18-23% [4]. - The ASIC market is projected to grow significantly, with major tech companies ramping up development efforts, indicating a robust demand for ASICs [5][7]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sector has outperformed the broader market, with a notable increase in component stocks [1][11]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including 澜起科技, 翱捷科技, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in AI and semiconductor demand [1]. Semiconductor Investments - TI's investment plan of over $60 billion is aimed at expanding production capacity in response to increasing demand, which is seen as a continuation of their previous strategies [2]. - The report recommends companies like 圣邦股份 and 思瑞浦 as beneficiaries of this investment trend [2]. AI Innovations - The launch of AI glasses by Meta is expected to drive interest in domestic SoC companies, suggesting a growing market for AI-integrated devices [3]. - The report highlights the importance of advancements in AI capabilities, particularly with the anticipated release of GPT-5, which is expected to significantly enhance AI infrastructure needs [7]. Storage Market Trends - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, with price increases for NAND Flash and DRAM products, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from CSP manufacturers [4]. - Companies such as 德明利 and 江波龙 are recommended for their potential to benefit from this upward price trend [4]. ASIC Market Outlook - The ASIC market is experiencing a surge in demand, with major tech firms investing heavily in development, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the industry [5][7]. - The report suggests that companies like 沪电股份 and 工业富联 will benefit from the increasing demand for ASICs [7].

2025年06月24日 证券研究报告 | 从Circle上市， 探索稳定币与交易所的合作模式 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网Ⅱ 投资评级：优于大市（维持） • 全球稳定币市场规模已突破2500亿美元，行业呈现双寡头格局，USDT和USDC两者合计占84%的市场份额。整个加密货币市场总市值达3.35 万亿美元，稳定币占比7.48%，稳定币市场规模过去五年复合增速超80%，应用场景不断拓展。其中，Tether发行的USDT是全球最早也是 最大的稳定币，占60%的市场份额。Circle发行的USDC是全球第二大稳定币，市占率24%。USDC底层为美债与美元1:1储备，以合规性和透 明度为核心优势。 • Circle:作为USDC发行方在2025年6月5日登陆纽交所，作为"稳定币第一股"股价在十余天内累计涨幅超675%。商业模式主要为储备资产 利息收入、占总收入比例超99%。伴随着2025年6月17日美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，政策环境逐渐明晰，为稳定币市场发展提供土 壤。本文对稳定币未来市场空间与Circle财务数据进行拆分预测，并对比讨论Circle与其他加密市场相关标的估值情况。 • Cir ...

Group 1: Deposit Trends - The trend of deposit migration reflects a shift in wealth, with decreasing deposit rates leading to increased interest in risk assets. The total household deposits have expanded to 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% in fixed deposits. As deposit rates decline, customers are seeking higher returns and diversified allocations, prompting financial institutions to innovate products [3][14][27] - The proportion of fixed deposits among household savings has shown a significant upward trend, exceeding 70% in early 2023 and projected to reach 72.28% by 2025. This indicates a lack of confidence in the real economy, necessitating counter-cyclical policies [14][15][30] Group 2: Asset Management Industry - The asset management industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a notable increase in the share of fixed income products. As of March 2025, cash management and fixed income products accounted for 97.7% of bank wealth management products, reflecting a shift towards lower-risk investments [42][49] - The total scale of the asset management industry is approximately 147.82 trillion yuan, with public funds accounting for 31.77 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest segment after insurance asset management [38][41] Group 3: Insurance Sector - The insurance industry is undergoing a transformation in its liability side, with a continuous decline in liability costs and significant improvements in productivity and channel quality. For instance, the new business value (NBV) of major insurers like China Life and Ping An has shown substantial growth, with increases of 4.8% and 34.9% respectively [3][4] - The demand for long-term bonds and high-dividend assets is expected to remain strong, suggesting a favorable environment for insurers with robust business models [3] Group 4: Securities Industry - The securities industry is witnessing an improvement in marginal prosperity, with cross-border investment banking and institutional derivatives business emerging as new growth points. The domestic capital market remains active, and the recovery of overseas investment banking is evident, particularly with Hong Kong IPOs leading globally [3][4] - Recommendations include focusing on leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company focuses on continuous breakthroughs in brake systems technology and market layout, with a strong revenue base from mechanical brake products and a growing contribution from electronic control systems [1][2][3]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with new subsidiaries in Singapore, Morocco, and Germany, aiming to enhance local production and revenue growth [2][47][48]. - The company is actively developing intelligent new businesses, including integrated solutions for autonomous driving, which positions it well for future market demands [3][45]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Outperform" with a target price range of 11.00 to 12.00 CNY, compared to a closing price of 10.46 CNY [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenue growth from 38.74 billion CNY in 2023 to 66.09 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.62% [51]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 0.31 billion CNY in 2023 to 0.55 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 33.4% [51]. Business Segments - Mechanical brake systems account for 73% of total revenue, with an expected revenue of approximately 31 billion CNY in 2024 [1][17]. - Electronic control systems, including EPB and ESC, are projected to grow at a CAGR of 32% from 2020 to 2024, contributing significantly to revenue [2][27]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence in the domestic brake system sector, with a focus on expanding its electronic control systems and intelligent solutions for electric vehicles [3][45]. - The company is actively pursuing new projects, with 166 new initiatives launched in 2024, including 74 related to electronic control systems [2][43]. Financial Metrics - The company’s EBIT margin is expected to improve from 3.5% in 2023 to 9.5% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 14.7% by 2027, reflecting improved financial performance [4].

Macro and Strategy - Shenzhen is accelerating the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot programs, focusing on deepening reform and expanding opening-up [6] - The issuance of the first phase of targeted technology innovation bonds in Shenzhen marks a practical outcome following the release of reform opinions [6] Industry and Company Media and Internet - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.78%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [10] - Key companies like OpenAI and ByteDance are making significant advancements, with OpenAI signing a $200 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense [11] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [14] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion yuan in the first five months, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [15] Home Appliances - The 618 shopping festival showed strong retail growth, with Midea's sales increasing by over 20% during the event [18] - Home appliance exports faced challenges, with a decline of 8% in May, although washing machines and vacuum cleaners showed resilience [19] Light Industry Manufacturing - Light industry exports continued to weaken, with furniture exports declining by 9.4% in May [21] - Meta launched AI sports glasses, indicating innovation in the industry [23] Financial Engineering - In May, U.S. equity funds saw a median return of over 5%, with large-cap growth funds rebounding nearly 9% [30] - The ETF market experienced significant inflows, particularly in financial ETFs, with nearly 50 billion yuan entering the market [34] Chemical Industry - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with potential implications for global supply chains [30]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 金融工程日报 沪指午后拉升，稳定币概念再度大涨、油气股反复活跃 市场表现：今日(20250623) 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数表现较好，板块指数中北证 50 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价 值指数表现较好。综合金融、综合、计算机、国防军工、煤炭行业表现较好， 食品饮料、家电、钢铁、通信、汽车行业表现较差。稳定币、数字货币、中 日韩自贸区、跨境支付、第三方支付等概念表现较好，白酒、品牌龙头、光 模块(CPO)、啤酒、高速公路精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 83 只股票涨停，有 3 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日高开高走，收盘收益为 3.97%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为 1.26%。 今日封板率 77%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 38%，较前日提升 15%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250620 两融余额为 18125 亿元，其中融资余额 18009 亿元，融券余额 115 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 7.8%。 折溢价：20250620 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是在线消费 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][24] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3][4][19] - OPEC+ has announced substantial production increases, but actual output has not met expectations due to compensatory cuts from member countries [8][12] - The rising operational costs for U.S. shale oil production are expected to lead to a decline in U.S. oil output by 2026 [13][16] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and gas, which could lead to a spike in oil prices if implemented [3][4] - Historical precedents show that threats or actions to close the Strait have previously resulted in significant price increases, with predictions of oil prices reaching $120 per barrel if a closure occurs [5][19] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has announced a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day and has extended voluntary cuts until the end of 2026, with plans to gradually restore production starting in 2025 [8][12] - Despite these announcements, actual production increases have been lower than planned, primarily due to compensatory measures from countries like Iraq and the UAE [12] U.S. Shale Oil Production - The operational costs for existing U.S. shale oil wells have risen, with average costs now at $41 per barrel, leading to a forecasted decline in production [13][16] - The EIA predicts a decrease in U.S. oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026 [16] Investment Recommendations - If Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz or if other geopolitical tensions escalate, there is a strong possibility of a significant rise in international oil prices [19] - The report estimates that Brent crude oil prices could stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel, while WTI prices could range from $65 to $75 per barrel under current conditions [19] Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector, such as China National Petroleum and CNOOC, are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [5] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market in the current period is "Neutral" [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased uncertainty, which may lead to a re - evaluation of the global supply chain, energy prices, and risk premiums, and release the risk of global asset re - pricing [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June, maintaining a high - interest rate environment to signal a wait - and - see approach and leaving room for rate cuts within the year. There are significant internal differences in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the policy path lacks clarity [2] - In April, the US experienced a large - scale net capital outflow, and international funds' willingness to allocate US bonds weakened [2] - The market's implied rate - cut expectation remains at two times within the year, likely in September and December [3] - US Treasury yields have risen across the board, and the term spread has slightly narrowed [3] - Investors are advised to respond flexibly to policy and geopolitical risks, prioritize medium - and short - duration bonds, and be cautious when allocating long - duration bonds [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the number of implied rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [13][14][19][21] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report shows figures related to US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [25][27][29][31][38][43][44][50][54] Exchange Rates - The report includes figures on the one - year trend and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange cost [55][56][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The report provides figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, the combined price trends of US and European dollar bonds, the price trends of global investment - grade dollar bonds, the price trends of global high - yield dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds, the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price changes of US Treasury ETFs with different maturities [67][71][74][76] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures on the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by rating and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [79][83][85][87][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 2 rating revocations, 4 initial ratings, and 3 rating downgrades [92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - The light industry exports continued to weaken in May, while U.S. furniture retail sales showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Domestic furniture retail sales in China rose by 25.6% year-on-year, supported by the progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has reached 54% [2][3][18]. - Meta has launched a new AI sports eyewear product, Oakley Meta HSTN, which is expected to catalyze industry innovation [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the recovery of the home furnishing sector as the "old-for-new" subsidy program is implemented in key cities, improving customer traffic and order data. It recommends leading companies in customized home furnishing, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as Bull Group and Good Wife for their growth potential in smart home products [16][17]. 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - In May, light industry exports fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to April. The U.S. furniture retail sector remains robust, reflecting strong demand [2][19]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has driven significant retail sales growth in furniture, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales supported by 1.75 billion subsidies issued [3][25]. - The launch of Meta's AI eyewear is seen as a potential catalyst for innovation in the industry [4][30]. 3. Market Review - The light industry sector experienced a decline of 3.06% last week, underperforming the broader market [31]. 4. Key Data Tracking - In May, furniture retail sales in China reached 170 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year, while building materials sales fell by 2.9% [34]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic prices for various paper products, with significant drops in packaging paper prices [42][50]. - Real estate data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year decline in property transaction volumes in 30 major cities [58]. - The furniture export value in May was 5.64 billion USD, down 9.4% year-on-year, while paper and paper products exports also saw a slight decline [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][81]. Core Views - The home appliance retail sector experienced strong growth during the 618 shopping festival, with major brands like Midea achieving over 20% year-on-year retail growth [2][3][39]. - The domestic retail sales of home appliances saw a significant increase, with May's sales growing by over 50% year-on-year, driven by the 618 promotion and government subsidy policies [2][18]. - Despite a decline in exports, certain categories like washing machines and vacuum cleaners showed resilience, with washing machine exports increasing by 3.9% and vacuum cleaner exports rising by 14.7% in May [4][50]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform the Market" rating for key companies in the home appliance sector, including Midea, Gree, Haier, and others [6][81]. Market Performance - The home appliance sector's retail sales in May increased by 53.0% year-on-year, with significant growth across major categories such as air conditioners and washing machines [2][18]. - The overall market performance for the home appliance sector showed a relative return of +0.22% compared to the broader market [5][58]. Company Performance - Midea's retail sales during the 618 festival grew by over 20%, with a notable increase in customer numbers [3][39]. - Haier maintained the top market share in several categories, including refrigerators and washing machines, during the 618 period [3][41]. - Gree ranked first in air conditioner sales during the same period, showcasing strong competitive positioning [3][43]. Export Trends - In May, the overall export value of home appliances decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing declines [4][50]. - The U.S. announced a 50% import tariff on several categories of home appliances, which may further impact export dynamics [51]. Key Data Tracking - The report highlights that the prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum have increased, which may affect production costs in the home appliance sector [5][61]. - The shipping index for major routes has shown an upward trend, indicating potential changes in logistics costs [5][74]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Gree, Midea, and Haier for white goods, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric for small appliances, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [5][14][17].