Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the performance, scale changes, valuation, margin trading, and fund managers of ETFs in the week from December 8 to December 12, 2025, and provides a list of newly established and upcoming ETFs [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 0.20%. Among broad-based ETFs,创业板类 ETF had the highest return with a median increase of 2.76%. Among sector ETFs, technology ETFs had the highest return with a median increase of 1.46%. Among thematic ETFs, chip ETFs had the highest return with a median increase of 2.69% [13][16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Redemptions/Subscriptions - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 9.756 billion yuan, but the overall scale increased by 6.732 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.635 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, consumer ETFs had the largest net subscription of 0.5 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.92 billion yuan [2][27][32]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, among broad-based ETFs,创业板类 ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, wine ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [3][43]. ETF Margin Trading - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin balance of equity ETFs decreased from 46.609 billion yuan to 46.001 billion yuan, and the short-selling volume increased from 2.605 billion shares to 2.65 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases and short-selling volumes, science and technology innovation board ETFs and securities ETFs had relatively high average daily margin purchases, while CSI 1000ETF and CSI 300ETF had relatively high average daily short-selling volumes [44][46][50]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and China Southern Asset Management ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs. This week, five ETFs, including Huabao CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF, Penghua CSI All-Share Food ETF, GF China Industrial Software Theme ETF, Ping An Hang Seng China Central Enterprise Dividend ETF, and E Fund CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF, will be issued [52][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review Related Hotspot Review - Last week, 61 funds were reported, an increase from the previous week. The reported products included 1 REITs, 2 QDIIs, 5 FOFs, and several theme ETFs such as those for non-ferrous metal mining, industrial non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, and all - index public utilities [1][9]. - On December 11, 2025, the scale of Huatai - Bairui CSI A500 ETF reached 307.4 billion yuan, becoming the first CSI A500 ETF to exceed 30 billion yuan. By December 12, its scale further increased to 32.525 billion yuan, an 86% increase from the end of 2024 [2][10]. - On December 9, 2025, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited launched its first Hong Kong stock index, the Hong Kong Exchanges Technology 100 Index, which aims to reflect the performance of the 100 largest - market - cap Hong Kong - listed companies highly relevant to the technology sector and eligible for the Hong Kong - Stock Connect [11][14]. - On December 11, 2025, the "White Paper on the Development of Fund Investment Advisory Business in 2025" was released in Shanghai. After this cycle, more investors realized that investment experience and final returns are equally important, and over 90% of customers preferred multi - asset allocation as a future investment strategy. Fund investment advisory users showed healthier investment behaviors and better long - term investment experiences [15]. Stock Market - Last week, the performance of major broad - based indices in the A - share market was divergent. The ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and CSI 500 had the highest returns of 2.74%, 1.72%, and 1.01% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 had lower returns of - 0.34%, - 0.08%, and 0.39% respectively. The ChiNext Index had the highest cumulative return of 49.16% since the beginning of the year [1][18]. - The trading volume of major broad - based indices increased last week. On a monthly basis, except for the ChiNext Index, the average daily trading volume of major broad - based indices decreased in the past month [18][20]. - In terms of industries, last week, the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors had the highest returns of 5.92%, 3.57%, and 2.51% respectively, while the coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and textile and clothing sectors had the lowest returns of - 3.80%, - 3.43%, and - 2.68% respectively [1][24]. Bond Market - As of last Friday, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 4.7 billion yuan, with 663.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing and a net open - market injection of 668.5 billion yuan. The 1M pledged - repo rate increased by 6.70BP, and the 1W SHIBOR increased by 3.50BP compared to the previous week [28]. - Bond yields of different maturities declined, and the yield spread widened by 0.53BP. Credit bond yields of different maturities and ratings also declined. Except for the 3 - year and 5 - year maturities, credit spreads of different maturities and ratings increased [29][32]. Convertible Bond Market - Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.05%, with a cumulative trading volume of 285.7 billion yuan, an increase of 31.1 billion yuan from the previous week. As of last Friday, the median conversion premium rate was 31.58%, up 1.05% from the previous week, and the median pure - bond premium rate was 23.40%, down 0.98% from the previous week [33]. 2. Open - ended Public Offering Fund Performance Ordinary Public Offering Funds - Last week, the returns of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds were 0.19%, 0.20%, and 0.33% respectively. This year, alternative funds had the best performance, with a median return of 51.31%, while the median returns of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced hybrid funds were 28.02%, 21.10%, and 14.42% respectively [2][35]. Quantitative Public Offering Funds - Last week, the median excess return of index - enhanced funds was - 0.05%, and the median return of quantitative hedging funds was 0.08%. This year, the median excess return of index - enhanced funds was 4.50%, and the median return of quantitative hedging funds was 0.99% [2][37]. FOF Funds - As of last weekend, there were 273 ordinary FOF funds, 116 target - date funds, and 152 target - risk funds in open - ended public offering funds. Four new FOF funds were established last week. Generally, target - date funds had a higher equity position, mainly in the 50% - 65% range. Most target - risk funds had an equity position below 50%, and ordinary FOF funds' equity positions were mainly below 25% and in the 65% - 100% range. Last week, the median returns of ordinary FOF, target - date, and target - risk funds were - 0.03%, 0.05%, and - 0.01% respectively. This year, target - date funds had the best performance, with a cumulative return of 16.57% [20][40]. 3. Fund Manager Changes - Last week, the fund managers of 83 fund products from 41 fund companies changed, including 9 products from E Fund, 5 from Chuangjin Hexin Fund, and 4 from Baoying Fund [44]. 4. Fund Product Issuance Situation Newly Established Funds Last Week - Last week, 28 new funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 18.218 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. Among them, equity funds issued 6.69 billion yuan, hybrid funds issued 4.26 billion yuan, and bond funds issued 7.269 billion yuan. There were no new issuances of alternative and money market funds [3][46]. Funds Launched for the First Time Last Week - Last week, 38 funds entered the issuance stage for the first time. Among them, the China AMC Hong Kong Stock Select Fund, Xinyuan Xinxuan Yingtai Progressive Allocation 3 - month Holding A, and Hongyi Yuanfang Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Component Index A had completed issuance and were established [50]. Funds to be Issued This Week - This week, 19 funds will enter the issuance stage, including 7 equity - biased hybrid funds, 6 passive index funds, and 2 enhanced index funds [52].

Core Conclusions - The large models possess certain technical analysis skills, with both DeepSeek V3.2 and Gemini 3 Pro able to perform tasks such as identifying tops and bottoms, drawing segments, and constructing central structures under appropriate prompts [1][2] - For "established" trends, the large models demonstrate a degree of technical analysis capability, with DeepSeek excelling in language organization and long text generation, while Gemini accurately identifies "central expansions" and "trend ambiguities" [1][2] - Gemini has an advantage in "ease of use," as its Nano Banana Pro can perform simple graphic annotations, making it slightly more convenient in practical applications [1] Evaluation Methodology - The evaluation of DeepSeek and Gemini's technical analysis capabilities follows the "Four Consistency Principles," ensuring data source uniformity, identical prompts, concurrent testing environments, and unified assessment standards [2][17] - The models are tested on standardized OHLC price data from the Shanghai Composite Index, with the same task instructions and evaluation criteria based on the original principles of the Chan theory [2][17] Technical Analysis Capabilities - Both models can accurately identify relationships and patterns in K-line data, with Gemini 3 Pro showing a slight edge in recognizing complex structures and providing clear outputs [3][12] - In analyzing established trends, both models demonstrate systematic capabilities, but there are discrepancies in defining fine concepts, particularly in classifying central structures and trend types [3][12] - Gemini 3 Pro is noted for its superior ability to capture the core logic of "divergence + central" in short-term predictions, aligning closely with actual market movements [3] Performance Comparison - The report compares the performance of DeepSeek and Gemini in various aspects of technical analysis, including K-line inclusion processing, top and bottom identification, segment classification, and overall analysis coherence [40] - DeepSeek identified 8 tops and 7 bottoms from 48 standard K-lines, while Gemini's results included a similar number of identified patterns, showcasing both models' capabilities in this area [23][30] - The evaluation highlights differences in the models' approaches to defining and processing K-line relationships, with Gemini's methodology being more rigorous in certain aspects [40]

Group 1 - The report reviews the historical evolution of the U.S. stock market and establishes an A-share investment system based on the industrial lifecycle, which follows three financial stages: rapid growth, capital support, and maturity [2][3] - The key to this process is the full-cycle funding support and multi-channel exit strategies, with three long-term beta investment themes suggested: high complexity industries (biomedicine, semiconductors), high aggregation industries (new energy, consumer electronics), and high patent industries (high-end equipment) [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market has seen significant shifts in industry value distribution, moving from energy and industrial dominance to a focus on information technology and finance, reflecting the impact of technological revolutions and the transition from manufacturing to service-oriented economies [3][8] - The financial indicators of U.S. industries reveal a strong correlation with their lifecycle stages, characterized by distinct financial metrics that define each phase: rapid growth, capital market support, and maturity [8][9] Group 3 - In the rapid growth phase, industries experience peak revenue and capital expenditure growth, often exceeding 100%, while market valuations remain low due to high operational risks [9][10] - The capital market support phase is marked by rising company listings and industry value shares, with high valuation premiums and increased leverage, indicating a lag in market response to revenue growth peaks [10][12] - The maturity phase sees a shift towards efficiency, with stable net profit growth and return on equity (ROE), as companies begin to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks [10][12] Group 4 - The report suggests that A-shares are currently in a critical transition period, moving from traditional real estate and infrastructure-driven growth to technology and innovation-driven growth, with long-term beta opportunities emerging in sectors that successfully navigate the technological "valley of death" [14][15] - Three sectors are identified as likely to replicate U.S. industry transformation: high complexity industries (biomedicine, semiconductors), high aggregation industries (new energy, consumer electronics), and high patent concentration industries (high-end equipment) [15][16] Group 5 - Financial analysis should adapt based on the lifecycle stage of industries, focusing on capital expenditure and revenue growth for high-growth tech firms, while emphasizing balance sheet health and valuation flexibility for industries in the capital support phase [17][18] - For mature industries, the focus should shift to cash flow stability and dividend policies, as reduced capital expenditure indicates a transition to profit harvesting [17][18]

锂电产业链双周评（12月第1期） 电池价格小幅上扬，锂电产业链大单不断 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 23-01 23-02 23-03 23-04 23-05 23-06 23-07 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11 23-12 24-01 24-02 24-03 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24 ...

Core Insights - The report concludes that both DeepSeek V3.2 and Gemini 3 Pro possess certain technical analysis capabilities, with Gemini showing superior usability and accuracy in identifying market trends and trading points [1][3]. Group 1: Technical Analysis Capabilities - Both models demonstrate a foundational understanding of technical analysis, effectively identifying patterns and structures in limited candlestick data [2][3]. - Gemini 3 Pro excels in recognizing complex relationships and patterns, providing clear and logical outputs, while DeepSeek V3.2 also performs well but with some discrepancies in finer details [2][3]. - The evaluation of both models is based on a controlled testing environment, ensuring fairness in data sources, task instructions, and assessment criteria [2][17]. Group 2: Performance Comparison - In analyzing established market trends, both models show systematic approaches, but they differ in their classification of market structures, leading to variations in their conclusions [3][41]. - Gemini 3 Pro has been noted for its superior predictive capabilities, particularly in identifying key market turning points and trends, aligning closely with actual market movements [3][41]. - The report highlights specific instances where Gemini's predictions were more accurate compared to DeepSeek, particularly in the context of market dynamics and trading strategies [3][41]. Group 3: Data and Methodology - The testing utilized standardized OHLC price data from the Shanghai Composite Index, ensuring consistency across both models [2][17]. - The core instructions for both models were identical, focusing on the execution of technical analysis tasks in a structured manner [2][17]. - The evaluation framework included multiple layers, assessing basic rule adherence, recursive structure analysis, dynamic judgment capabilities, and overall coherence of outputs [13][14].

Global Market Overview - The overseas markets showed mixed performance from December 8 to December 12, 2025, with Japan and South Korea leading gains, as the Korean Composite Index and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Index both rose over 1.5% [2][7] - The US stock market saw declines across all indices except for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the drop at -1.93% [2][7] - Overall valuation changes were moderate, with significant PE expansion observed only in the Nikkei 225 (+1.65x) and the Korean Composite Index (+3.83x), while other indices saw changes not exceeding 1x [2][7] A-share Market Analysis - A-shares exhibited mixed performance with slight valuation contraction from December 8 to December 12, 2025. The CSI 500 index was the only one to exceed a 1% increase at +1.01%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 100 saw minor declines of -0.25% and -0.13% respectively [2][30] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with mid-cap growth leading at +1.46% and mid-cap value lagging at -1.94% [2][30] - As of December 12, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned within the 72%-86% percentile range for the past year, indicating a favorable valuation for large-cap value stocks [2][31] Industry Performance - The week saw more declines than gains across primary industries, with upstream resources experiencing significant pullbacks and downstream consumption sectors declining across the board [2][52] - The TMT sector showed relative resilience, particularly in electronics (+2.63%) and telecommunications (+6.27%), while the materials and manufacturing sectors displayed notable internal divergence [2][52] - Valuations generally contracted alongside stock prices, with the computer and real estate sectors experiencing PE contractions exceeding 1x, while defense and military (+2.29x), electronics (+1.88x), and telecommunications (+2.88x) saw significant PE expansions [2][52] Valuation Comparisons - The telecommunications sector exhibited the highest valuation attractiveness, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year valuation percentiles averaging 98.35%, 99.45%, and 99.67% respectively [2][31] - The consumer sectors, including social services, beauty care, food and beverage, and agriculture, displayed relatively high valuation attractiveness, with average valuation percentiles of 49.21%, 18.22%, 23.75%, and 49.28% respectively [2][52] Emerging Industries - Most emerging industries saw gains, with nuclear power leading at +4.44%. The digital economy sectors, particularly 5G (+4.19%) and IDC (+3.09%), also showed significant increases [2][52] - Valuations in these sectors generally expanded, with IDC and integrated circuits experiencing PE expansions exceeding 2x, while cloud computing and biotechnology sectors saw PE contractions over 1x [2][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to stabilize with grain prices bottoming out, particularly in the meat and dairy cycles [3] - The report highlights a potential upward trend in beef prices and a supportive environment for long-term pig prices due to industry adjustments [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the livestock sector, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and cost advantages amid industry contraction [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product fundamentals, indicating a rise in pig prices to 11.34 CNY/kg, a 2.07% increase week-on-week [13] - The average price of broiler chickens increased to 7.24 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.26% week-on-week rise [14] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the swine industry is undergoing a restructuring, which is expected to support long-term profitability [13] - The average price of piglets is reported at 219.52 CNY/head, up 1.21% week-on-week [13] 2.2 Poultry - The supply of broiler chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [14] - The price of chicken eggs in major production areas is reported at 3.09 CNY/jin, a 3.00% increase week-on-week [14] 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is anticipated, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.40 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.79% increase week-on-week [2][14] - The average market price for beef is reported at 61.06 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but up 21.51% year-on-year [2][14] 2.4 Dairy - The report suggests that the reduction of dairy cows in the fourth quarter may accelerate, potentially leading to a price turning point for raw milk [2] 2.5 Feed - The report indicates that the industrialization of livestock farming is deepening, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitive advantages [3] 2.6 Other Commodities - The report discusses the supply-demand balance for corn, indicating a moderate price increase potential, with the current price at 2313 CNY/ton, a 0.13% increase week-on-week [2][14] - The report also notes that rubber prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with a current price of 1825 USD/ton [2] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.30 CNY and 1.38 CNY [4] - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 CNY for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4]

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Recent global copper prices have reached historic highs, with SHFE copper closing at 94,020 CNY/ton and LME copper at 11,952 USD/ton[1] - Structural supply shortages in global copper mining are the core reason for price increases, with production accidents in Chile and Indonesia causing a 6.5% year-on-year decline in output from the top 20 copper mines in Q3[1] - Self-imposed production cuts in smelting further exacerbate supply tightness, with China's CSPT announcing a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026[1] Group 2: Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, enhancing the investment appeal of commodities[1] - Long-term copper price increases are driven by structural changes and rigid growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper usage in electric vehicles is 2-3 times that of traditional vehicles[1] - The International Copper Study Group predicts that annual demand in the renewable sector will exceed 10 million tons by 2030[1] Group 3: Market Overview - From December 6 to December 13, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08%, the Hang Seng index by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 by 0.63%[2] - In commodities, SHFE rebar fell by 2.65%, while LME copper rose by 1.47%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, while the copper-oil ratio increased to 205.72, reflecting changing asset valuations[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 last year was mainly due to central government leverage - up. With no additional treasury bond issuance this Q4, government bond financing growth is expected to decline rapidly, and the domestic economy will still face pressure. The Party Central Committee will focus more on high - quality development in 2026, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregate has been adjusted down. Also, the absolute interest rate level is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investor sentiment is weak recently [2][3][13] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 12, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The 30 - 10 spread has widened again this week, close to the October high, and is expected to face short - term pressure [2][13] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 12, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 15BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the short - term bond market fluctuations, the spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Super - long Bond Review - Last week, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting were held. The policy intensity was generally lower than market expectations, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, but on Friday, the market worried about super - long bond supply, and the gains of the 30 - year treasury bond were quickly reversed. Overall, the bond market fluctuated greatly and slightly recovered [1][4][12] - Last week, the trading activity of super - long bonds slightly declined but remained very active. The term spread of super - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread widened [1][12] 3.2 Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP as of December 12, at a historically low level. The domestic economic data in October showed increased downward pressure, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.2% year - on - year, a 1.1% decline from September. In November, CPI was 0.7% and PPI was - 2.2%, and the deflation risk was alleviated [2][13] - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 15BP as of December 12, at a historically extremely low position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond, the domestic economic situation in October was under pressure, and inflation data showed deflation risk alleviation [3][14] 3.3 Super - long Bond Basic Overview - As of November 30, the balance of remaining super - long bonds was 24.3 trillion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.8%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15] 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (December 8 - 12, 2025), the issuance of super - long bonds surged, with a total of 385.2 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 350 billion, local government bonds 34.7 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 353.1 billion, 20 - year 22.4 billion, 30 - year 9.7 billion [21] - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced super - long bond issuance plan this week is 2.03 billion yuan, all of which are super - long local government bonds [26] 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, super - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1230.2 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond turnover. By variety, super - long treasury bonds accounted for 41.9% of the total treasury bond turnover, super - long local bonds 47.9% of the total local bond turnover, etc. The trading activity slightly declined, but the turnover increased by 95.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.5% [30] - **Yield**: After the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting last week, the bond market rebounded but then faced supply concerns. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1BP, - 2BP, - 1BP, and 0BP to 2.12%, 2.24%, 2.25%, and 2.46% respectively. Similar data is available for CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [41] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of super - long bonds flattened, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 year spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 25% quantile since 2010 [51] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of super - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 15BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 22BP, changing by 1BP and 6BP respectively from the previous week, at the 13% and 17% quantiles since 2010 [52] 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.47 yuan, with a decline of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 684,300 lots (- 22,523 lots), and the open interest was 142,600 lots (- 2,964 lots). The trading volume and open interest slightly decreased compared to the previous week [56]