Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 387 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.77%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 33.26% to 56 million yuan [2][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, with a slight increase in net profit attributable to the parent company by 0.66% to 20 million yuan [2]. - The company is progressing steadily in capacity enhancement, having completed the construction and debugging of an intelligent production line for precision reducers, with plans for gradual capacity ramp-up in 2025 [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 479 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 23.6%. The net profit is expected to rebound to 87 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 55.6% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.48 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 309 times [5][10]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 27.015 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 24.884 billion yuan [6]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on expanding its product line, particularly in harmonic reducers and planetary roller screws, to enhance its market competitiveness and service capabilities [9]. - The company has successfully completed a directional issuance of shares to fund new projects, including the "Next Generation Precision Transmission Device Intelligent Manufacturing Project," which is set to commence in 2025 [9]. Market Comparison - Over the past 12 months, the company's stock has experienced a decline of 51%, contrasting with a 14% increase in the CSI 300 index [8].

行业研究 邮箱：suqianye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523050001 证 券 研 究 报 告 电动车行业跟踪报告 4 月新势力交付同环比持续增长，零跑连续 推荐（维持） 两月稳居新势力交付榜首 电力设备及新能源 2025 年 05 月 06 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：苏千叶 证券分析师：黄麟 邮箱：huanglin1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 299 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 47,031.12 | 4.86 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 41,360.01 | 5.39 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -8.6% | -9.5% | 1.9% | | 相对表现 | -4.9% | -6.5% | -2.7% | -18% -5% 8% 20% 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 2024-05- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for the company, indicating a potential for growth in the semiconductor packaging and testing sectors, with specific revenue growth expectations for Q2 2025 [2][16]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of NT$148.15 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, despite a 9% quarter-over-quarter decline. The gross margin improved to 16.8%, up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year [3][7]. - The semiconductor packaging segment generated NT$86.67 billion in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase, while the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) segment saw a 5% year-over-year growth despite a 17% quarter-over-quarter decline [10][12]. - The company anticipates a 9%-11% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in the semiconductor packaging business for Q2 2025, with an expected gross margin increase of 140-180 basis points [16]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The company achieved a consolidated revenue of NT$148.15 billion, with a gross margin of 16.8% and a net profit of NT$75.54 billion [3][7]. - The semiconductor packaging division's revenue was NT$86.67 billion, with a gross margin of 22.6%, while the EMS division's revenue was NT$62.3 billion, with a gross margin of 8.9% [10][12]. Business Segment Analysis - **Semiconductor Packaging**: Revenue of NT$86.67 billion, with a gross margin of 22.6%. The segment is expected to see continued growth, particularly in AI-related testing services [10][11]. - **Electronic Manufacturing Services**: Revenue of NT$62.3 billion, with a gross margin of 8.9%. The segment faced challenges due to supply constraints and seasonal fluctuations [12][13]. Demand and Market Outlook - The demand in the automotive sector is expected to grow, while other electronic sectors are gradually recovering. The company is optimistic about its automotive business growth this year [4][32]. - The company has low direct exposure to U.S. market risks, with less than 10% of its EMS shipments going to the U.S., allowing for flexibility in production location adjustments [4][31]. Q2 2025 Guidance - The semiconductor packaging business is projected to grow by 9%-11% quarter-over-quarter, while the EMS segment is expected to decline by 10% year-over-year [16].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline last week, influenced by a decrease in social media activity due to the May Day holiday[2] - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares was 469.7 billion CNY, down 200.3 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 9.0% percentile over the past five years[2][33] - Margin financing saw a net outflow of 157.6 billion CNY, an increase of 145.1 billion CNY from the previous week[2][34] Fund Management Trends - Public funds continue to favor growth-oriented stocks, particularly in the consumer sector, with 40% of heavy-weight stocks leading the gains since September 2018[2][18] - The top-performing sectors include electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a concentrated investment strategy[2][23] Social Media Engagement - The number of "A-share" related content on Kuaishou decreased by 211 pieces, with a drop in views by 3.294 million and interactions by 115,000, attributed to the holiday[12] - On Weibo, positive sentiment surged on April 30, driven by supportive government actions in the AI sector and favorable corporate earnings reports[15] Investor Participation - The number of individual investors participating in margin trading reached 740.4 thousand, with a slight decrease in daily active participants to 277 thousand[34] - Recent downloads of investment apps like Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu fell by 1.5 thousand and 0.8 thousand respectively, indicating a decline in retail investor engagement[38]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 311,666 | 273,124 | 243,067 | 230,411 | | 同比增速(%) | -10.2% | -12.4% | -11.0% | -5.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,001 | 5,389 | 5,364 | 5,870 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.6% | 7.8% | -0.5% | 9.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.49 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 19 | 19 | 17 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 30 保利发展（600048）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 投资积极性提升，融资优势明显 目标价：10.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690) with a target price of 34.5 CNY, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 79.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.49 billion CNY, up 15.1% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic revenue growing by 7.8% and overseas revenue by 12.6% [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable domestic demand environment and ongoing digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 285.98 billion CNY, increasing to 309.93 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% [3][8]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 18.74 billion CNY for 2024, rising to 21.17 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.9% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 2.00 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.26 CNY in 2025, and further to 2.53 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Haier's traditional stronghold in the refrigerator and washing machine segments is expected to maintain stable growth, outperforming the industry average [7]. - The company is also focusing on high-growth segments such as air conditioning, which is projected to achieve double-digit growth due to government subsidies [7]. - The introduction of an employee stock ownership plan aims to align the interests of management and key employees with those of shareholders, enhancing long-term value creation [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 股票型ETF持续流出 ——流动性&交易拥挤度周报 2025年5月6日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：林昊 执业编号：S0360523070007 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近3年分位 | | 偏股型公募新发份额 | 74 | 45 | 65% | | 两融资金净流入 | -12 | -154 | 13% | | 股票型ETF净申购 | -117 | -144 | 7% | | 上市公司回购 | 23 | 16 | 43% | | 合 计 | -54 | -252 | | | 资金需求 | | | | | 资金需求主体(亿元) | 上 期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for JD Logistics (02618.HK) [1][6] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved an adjusted net profit of 7.92 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 187%, driven by integrated supply chain growth and cost reduction efforts [1][6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a projected revenue of 182.84 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase [2][6] - The report highlights the significant contribution of integrated supply chain clients, with revenue from these clients reaching 87.4 billion RMB, a 7.2% increase from the previous year [6][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 182.84 billion RMB - 2025E: 200.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 216.90 billion RMB - 2027E: 232.18 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates: 9.7% for 2024 and 2025, 8.1% for 2026, and 7.0% for 2027 [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 6.20 billion RMB - 2025E: 7.08 billion RMB - 2026E: 8.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 9.46 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates: 905.8% for 2024, 14.2% for 2025, 15.9% for 2026, and 15.4% for 2027 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.94 RMB - 2025E: 1.06 RMB - 2026E: 1.23 RMB - 2027E: 1.42 RMB [2][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 12.1 for 2024, decreasing to 7.9 by 2027 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 1.4 for 2024, decreasing to 0.9 by 2027 [2][8] Strategic Insights - JD Logistics is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain capabilities and improving service quality to drive profitability [6][7] - The company plans to integrate its supply chain systems with major e-commerce platforms, which is expected to boost logistics volume across channels [6][7] - The implementation of smart technologies has led to a significant reduction in operational costs, with gross profit margin increasing to 10.2% in 2024 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changhong Meiling, with a target price of 10.4 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.36 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, up 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 6.2% to 170 million CNY [1][7]. - The company's performance is driven by strong domestic and overseas demand, with domestic sales benefiting from the continued "old-for-new" policy. The report indicates that the company's domestic sales growth aligns with industry performance, while overseas sales are expected to outperform domestic sales due to favorable market conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is slightly under pressure, with a gross margin decrease of 1.6 percentage points to 11.8% and a net margin decline of 1.4 percentage points to 2.5% in Q1 2025. This is attributed to fair value changes from foreign exchange orders and asset impairment provisions [7][8]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to grow from 28.6 billion CNY in 2024 to 37.5 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 11.5%, 8.9%, and 8.1% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 699 million CNY in 2024 to 1.004 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -5.6%, 14.9%, 12.9%, and 10.8% [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.68 CNY in 2024 to 0.97 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, 9, and 8 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is undergoing internal reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, which is expected to enhance profitability. The report notes that the company has a high proportion of domestic sales, which positions it well to benefit from national subsidy policies [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the structural market advantages due to the company's focus on emerging markets with high economic growth and low penetration rates, which helps mitigate tariff risks associated with exports to the U.S. [7][8].