证 券 研 究 报 告 申洲国际（02313）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 2024 年顺利收官，收入利润表现亮眼 目标价：82.50 港元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 286.6 亿元，同比+14.8%，归 母净利润 62.4 亿元，同比+36.9%。公司 24 年末派息 1.28 港元/股，考虑中期 股息，全年累计派息 2.53 港元/股，派息比例为 55.8%，按 4 月 11 日收盘价 计，对应股息率 5.2%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,663 | 32,147 | 35,564 | 38,825 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,241 | 6,631 | 7,431 | 8,231 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.9% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 59.9 yuan, based on expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.3% but a decline in net profit by 11.6% [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a total dividend payout of 260 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend rate of 67.2% [3][5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its own brand and expanding its overseas market presence, with significant growth in international sales, particularly driven by its subsidiary in Thailand [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, net profit of 388 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 3.75 billion yuan, net profit of 492 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, net profit of 552 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 4.77 billion yuan, net profit of 632 million yuan [3][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin for 2024 is reported at 27.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is 13.2%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2024 is projected at 2.51 yuan, with estimates of 3.19 yuan for 2025, 3.58 yuan for 2026, and 4.10 yuan for 2027 [3][10]. Market and Product Insights - The company has seen a 4.3% increase in revenue from baby hygiene products, with sales driven by changing parenting attitudes [3][9]. - The adult hygiene product segment experienced a slight decline in revenue by 0.6%, while other products, including wet wipes, saw a significant increase of 57.6% [3][9]. - The company is increasing its self-produced raw materials, which has contributed to improved gross margins [3][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its brand development and expanding its production capacity across various regions, including a recent acquisition aimed at boosting profitability [3][9]. - The focus on international markets is expected to continue driving growth, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, citing improvements in supply and demand dynamics that provide bottom support for steel prices [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship has improved, contributing to a bottom support for steel prices. As of April 18, the prices for five major steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, down 0.59% week-on-week. Total production for these products was 8.7271 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons [1][2]. - The report notes a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products, particularly rebar, which saw a week-on-week increase of 21,140 tons. This is attributed to a rapid decline in inventory levels, with social inventory of rebar decreasing by 30,340 tons [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that while steel prices remain weak, they are at low levels, and the demand from essential purchases is providing some support for price stability. The industry is in a phase of seeking a new equilibrium in supply and demand, with expectations of gradual stabilization in the fundamentals [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of April 18, the five major steel product prices were as follows: rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,608 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,262 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,872 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,515 CNY/ton. Weekly changes were -0.59%, -0.48%, -0.88%, -2.14%, and +0.13% respectively [1][14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products was 8.7271 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons. Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [1][20]. (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.4864 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 481,000 tons. The apparent consumption changes for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate were +21,140 tons, +17,030 tons, +8,830 tons, -1,520 tons, and +2,620 tons respectively [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.8468 million tons, down 759,300 tons week-on-week. Social inventory fell by 519,000 tons to 11.2483 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 240,300 tons to 4.5985 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - As of April 18, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +73 CNY/ton, +22 CNY/ton, and +60 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -35 CNY/ton, -45 CNY/ton, and -84 CNY/ton [1][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 6.5 yuan [1] Core Views - The company continues to face operational pressure, but adjustments are expected to yield positive effects in the future [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 14.2% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 27.07% [7] - Despite the challenges, some regions have shown signs of recovery, particularly in Central China, where revenue has increased for two consecutive quarters [7] - The company is actively exploring new channels and adjusting its strategies to adapt to market changes, which is anticipated to stabilize operations in the second half of 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6087 million, 6114 million, 6384 million, and 6719 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.9%, 0.4%, 4.4%, and 5.3% [2] - Net profit projections for the same years are 522 million, 506 million, 540 million, and 582 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.1%, -3.1%, 6.7%, and 7.8% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 0.32 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [2][7] - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 7075 million in 2024A to 7896 million in 2027E [14] Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit margins, with a gross margin of 21.97% in Q1 2025, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7%, reflecting a decrease of 1.23 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company is focusing on cost control, with total expense ratios showing a slight improvement despite the revenue decline [7]

公司研究 评论： 休闲食品 2025 年 04 月 21 日 甘源食品（002991）2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 强推（上调） 当前价：76.62 元 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 经营筑底，改善可期 目标价：95 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布2024年年报及2025年一季报。24年实现营收22.57 亿，同比+22.18%； 归母净利润 3.76 亿，同比+14.32%；扣非归母净利润 3.41 亿，同比+16.91%。 24Q4 实现营收 6.52 亿，同比+22.05%；归母净利润 0.99 亿，同比-13.91%；扣 非归母净利 0.93 亿，同比-10.4%。25Q1 实现营收 5.04 亿，同比-13.99%；归 母净利润 0.53 亿，同比-42.21%；扣非归母净利润 0.46 亿，同比-45.14%。 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 9,321.58 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 4,968.55 | | 总市值(亿元) | 71.42 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 38.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 18.86 | | 每股净资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 49.2 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 502 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122 million yuan, up 38.90% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 109 million yuan, a 4.25% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, up 5.64% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company continues to benefit from strong policy support for high-end scientific research instruments and the ongoing demand for domestic substitution, leading to rapid growth in revenue and profit [2][9]. - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 66.37% and 24.10%, respectively, both showing an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating sustained high profitability [2][9]. - Significant growth was observed in the structural mechanics performance testing analysis and electrochemical workstation segments, with revenues of 301 million yuan and 88 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 35.79% and 52.26% [2][9]. - The company invested 61 million yuan in R&D for 2024, a 49.4% increase year-on-year, enhancing its core competitiveness through continuous innovation and product optimization [2][9]. - The rapid growth in contract liabilities and inventory indicates a strong order growth situation, with contract liabilities increasing by 84.27% year-on-year [2][9]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the domestic substitution of scientific instruments and the increasing penetration of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) systems, driven by modernization and digital transformation in defense and industrial sectors [2][9]. - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 680 million, 896 million, and 1.175 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 170 million, 226 million, and 298 million yuan, indicating robust growth rates [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [3][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 7.8 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.77% to 1.63 billion yuan [2][6]. - The company is facing challenges due to rising costs and trade frictions but is implementing multiple measures to address these issues [2][6]. - The company achieved significant growth in overseas markets, with a 43.83% increase in overseas revenue, reaching 5.52 billion yuan [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Metrics**: - Total Revenue: 7,799 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.6% [2][7]. - Net Profit: 1,629 million yuan, with a decline of 12.8% [2][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 3.22 yuan [2][7]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 12 [2][7]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 2.0 [2][7]. - **Future Projections**: - Revenue is projected to reach 9.17 billion yuan in 2025, 10.47 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.08 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 17.6%, 14.2%, and 15.3% [2][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase to 2.10 billion yuan in 2025, 2.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.81 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 28.8%, 14.5%, and 16.7% respectively [2][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the high-altitude work platform industry, with a strong focus on differentiated products and significant R&D investments [2][6]. - The company has launched several innovative products, enhancing its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [2][6]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the robust demand in mature markets like North America and Europe, despite facing short-term pressures from tariffs [2][6].

Group 1: Debt Maturity Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. national debt maturity is projected to be $10.8 trillion, which is similar to the $10.6 trillion in 2024, but significantly higher than levels prior to 2023[4] - The perception of a "debt maturity wall" in 2025 is largely due to statistical misinterpretation, as Bloomberg's methodology only captures a portion of the debt maturing within a specific timeframe[3] - The correct approach to analyze debt maturity is to use a consistent observation date each year, which reveals that the increase in 2025 is not as drastic as initially thought[12] Group 2: Short-term Debt Pressure - The months of May and June 2025 are expected to see a spike in debt maturity, primarily driven by short-term debt, creating an illusion of a significant upcoming maturity wall[21] - The short-term debt issuance has increased significantly since October 2023, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance strategy[25] - The upcoming debt maturity structure indicates that while short-term debt will see fluctuations, long-term debt remains relatively stable[21] Group 3: Market Implications - The high levels of debt maturity could increase supply pressure in the bond market, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline[33] - The current financial market liquidity has not fully recovered, which may exacerbate the impact of the upcoming debt maturities[33] - The ongoing discussions regarding the debt ceiling may limit adjustments to fiscal deficits and debt issuance in the near term, maintaining a similar pace of debt maturity as in 2024[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Jiangsu Bank, with a target price of 11.66 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - Jiangsu Bank achieved a revenue of 80.815 billion CNY in 2024, representing an 8.78% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.843 billion CNY, up 10.76% year-on-year [2][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.89%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 350.10%, down 39.43 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2][6]. - The bank's governance structure is stable, with clear strategic planning and solid operational metrics, indicating strong asset quality and a high current dividend yield [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The bank's revenue growth accelerated to 8.78% in 2024 from 6.18% in the previous three quarters, driven by a robust expansion in interest-earning assets and effective cost control [5][6]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit for 2024 was 31.843 billion CNY, reflecting a 10.76% increase, supported by revenue growth and effective cost management [5][6]. - **Loan Growth**: Total loan balance reached 2,095.203 billion CNY, a 10.67% increase year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 18.82% [5][6]. - **Interest Margin**: The net interest margin for the group was 1.86%, with a slight decrease in the average yield on interest-earning assets [5][6]. Asset Quality Summary - **NPL Ratio**: The NPL ratio remained at 0.89%, the lowest since the bank's listing, indicating stable asset quality [5][6]. - **Provision Coverage**: The provision coverage ratio was 350.10%, still above industry standards, despite a decrease from the previous year [5][6]. - **Loan Quality**: The report highlights a slight increase in the personal loan NPL ratio, which rose to 0.88% [5][6]. Future Projections - **Profit Growth**: The projected net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.4%, 8.0%, and 7.8%, respectively [6][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current stock price corresponds to a 2025E price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.72X, with a target PB of 0.85X for 2025 [6][7].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250414-20250418） 本周指数多空不一 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数多空不一，其中沪深 300 上涨 0.59%，中证 500 下跌 0.37%，中证 1000 下跌 0.52%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 14.97%，相对于上周下跌了 3.38%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 20.36%，相对于上周下跌了 2.99%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 25.52%，相对于上周下跌了 4.01%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.44%，相 对于上周下跌了 3.07%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 4 月 7 日到 2025 年 4 月 11 日正 面信号共出现了 3020 次，未来高点平均胜率为 76.71%，负面信号出现 2149 次，未来低点平均胜率为 24.53%。 从宽基择时策略来看，沪深 300、中证 2000、Wind 全 A、上证 50、万得微盘 股指数、国证 2000、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生香港 35、恒生中国企业 指数、恒生指数、恒生等权重出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...