宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 扩内需信号进一步明确——政策周观察第 26 期 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。1）4 月 15 日，总理在北京调研消费及地产相关内容。2）4 月 17 日，总理主持国务院专 题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗 口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影响。要把握政策 力度，必要时敢于打破常规"。3）4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳 就业稳经济问题。提出要"锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2、股市楼市：1）4 月 15 日，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期， 我国房地产市场仍有很大的发展空间"。2）4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会， "要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展"。 3、消费及就业：1）4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，"要鼓励企业积极稳定 就业，加大职业技能培训力度，扩大以工代赈等支持"，"要促进养老、生育、 文化、旅游等服务消费"。2）4 月 16 日，《 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 290 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The company is optimistic about its entry into the emerging markets of the robotics industry [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's ability to leverage its extensive experience in the intelligent logistics sector to develop humanoid robot applications, which could drive significant growth [6][11]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue is expected to be 1.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year. - Net profit is projected at 290 million yuan, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 25.1%, up by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - **Segment Performance**: - The manufacturing logistics service segment is expected to generate 1.38 billion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in revenue from the new energy vehicle sector [6][11]. - The logistics equipment and robotics manufacturing segment is projected to achieve 141 million yuan in revenue, indicating rapid growth in this area [6][11]. - **Future Earnings Forecast**: - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 320 million yuan in 2025, 360 million yuan in 2026, and 400 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 10%, 12.8%, and 10% [6][11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 4.478 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 3.287 billion yuan. The asset-liability ratio stands at 32.18% [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the intelligent logistics sector, supported by a nationwide manufacturing logistics fulfillment network and multiple automated intelligent warehousing bases [6][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 化工行业新材料周报（20250414-20250420） 最严动力电池安全令落地；英伟达 H20 芯片受到 推荐（维持） 出口管制 行业研究 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 21 日 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 相对指数表现 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：申起昊 邮箱：shenqihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030001 联系人：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 486 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,655.61 | 4.31 | | 流通市值(亿元) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.8 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company's 2024 performance aligns with expectations, showing a revenue of 27.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million CNY, also up 17% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is seeking breakthroughs in new fields for 2025, particularly in the areas of robotics and drones, as well as in the development of new materials for automotive applications [8][9]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 27,246 million CNY, with a growth rate of 16.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 707 million CNY, with a growth rate of 16.8% [4]. - Earnings per share: 1.12 CNY [4]. - **2025-2027 Financial Projections**: - Expected revenue for 2025: 30,628 million CNY, with a growth rate of 12.4% [4]. - Expected net profit for 2025: 759 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.3% [4]. - Projected earnings per share for 2025: 1.20 CNY [4]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings ratio for 2025: 13 times [4]. - Price-to-book ratio for 2025: 1.3 times [4]. Market Performance - The company has shown a significant performance improvement in Q4 2024, achieving a revenue of 79 billion CNY, which is a 26% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 15% increase year-on-year [8]. - The net profit for Q4 2024 reached 214 million CNY, reflecting a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 92% increase year-on-year [8]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully launched its heat-free materials in the market, with significant partnerships and certifications from leading new energy vehicle manufacturers [8][9]. - The company is actively exploring applications for its materials in various sectors, including energy storage and computing centers [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pricing floor is solid, and the value proposition remains attractive for investors. Despite short-term pressures, the market is expected to stabilize, with a clear support level at 2000 yuan for major brands like Moutai [6][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing volume and price in the second quarter, with a focus on improving cash flow for distributors and maintaining stable pricing [6]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 338.49 billion yuan [3]. - Recent performance metrics show a 4.7% decline over the past month and a 6.3% decline over the past year, indicating some volatility in the market [4]. Company-Specific Analysis - Moutai's recent price has dropped to around 2100 yuan, reflecting a 20 yuan decrease from the previous week and a 120 yuan decrease from the previous month. This decline is attributed to increased supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [6]. - The report notes that Moutai is actively implementing measures to stabilize prices, including adjusting supply and enhancing market supervision to prevent price disruptions [6]. - Other key players like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are also experiencing slight price adjustments, with Wuliangye's price at approximately 925 yuan [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading companies such as Moutai and Wuliangye for short-term gains, while also recommending secondary brands like Fenjiu and Gujing for their growth potential [6][13]. - The anticipated dividend yield for major liquor companies is around 4%, making them attractive for long-term investors [6].

太阳纸业（002078）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 24 年业绩符合预期，看好 25 年产能爬坡 目标价：18.6 元 事项： 公司公布 2024 年报。2024 年，公司实现营业收入 407.3 亿元，同比+3.0%， 归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 31.0/32.3 亿元，同比+0.5%/+6.9%。公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3 元，对应分红率 27.0%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 40,727 | 43,322 | 46,679 | 49,751 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,101 | 3,617 | 4,007 | 4,393 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 16.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.11 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.57 | | 市盈 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20250414-20250420） 推荐（维持） 本周丙烷、敌草快、石脑油价格涨幅居前 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：申起昊 邮箱：shenqihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 本周丙烷(+12.6%)、敌草快(+8.6%)、石脑油(+5.1%)涨幅居前。1）丙烷 （+12.6%）:本周 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 申洲国际（02313）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 2024 年顺利收官，收入利润表现亮眼 目标价：82.50 港元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 286.6 亿元，同比+14.8%，归 母净利润 62.4 亿元，同比+36.9%。公司 24 年末派息 1.28 港元/股，考虑中期 股息，全年累计派息 2.53 港元/股，派息比例为 55.8%，按 4 月 11 日收盘价 计，对应股息率 5.2%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,663 | 32,147 | 35,564 | 38,825 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,241 | 6,631 | 7,431 | 8,231 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.9% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 59.9 yuan, based on expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.3% but a decline in net profit by 11.6% [3][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.5 yuan per 10 shares, with a total dividend payout of 260 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend rate of 67.2% [3][5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its own brand and expanding its overseas market presence, with significant growth in international sales, particularly driven by its subsidiary in Thailand [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, net profit of 388 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 3.75 billion yuan, net profit of 492 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 4.25 billion yuan, net profit of 552 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 4.77 billion yuan, net profit of 632 million yuan [3][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin for 2024 is reported at 27.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is 13.2%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2024 is projected at 2.51 yuan, with estimates of 3.19 yuan for 2025, 3.58 yuan for 2026, and 4.10 yuan for 2027 [3][10]. Market and Product Insights - The company has seen a 4.3% increase in revenue from baby hygiene products, with sales driven by changing parenting attitudes [3][9]. - The adult hygiene product segment experienced a slight decline in revenue by 0.6%, while other products, including wet wipes, saw a significant increase of 57.6% [3][9]. - The company is increasing its self-produced raw materials, which has contributed to improved gross margins [3][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its brand development and expanding its production capacity across various regions, including a recent acquisition aimed at boosting profitability [3][9]. - The focus on international markets is expected to continue driving growth, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, citing improvements in supply and demand dynamics that provide bottom support for steel prices [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship has improved, contributing to a bottom support for steel prices. As of April 18, the prices for five major steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, down 0.59% week-on-week. Total production for these products was 8.7271 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons [1][2]. - The report notes a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products, particularly rebar, which saw a week-on-week increase of 21,140 tons. This is attributed to a rapid decline in inventory levels, with social inventory of rebar decreasing by 30,340 tons [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that while steel prices remain weak, they are at low levels, and the demand from essential purchases is providing some support for price stability. The industry is in a phase of seeking a new equilibrium in supply and demand, with expectations of gradual stabilization in the fundamentals [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of April 18, the five major steel product prices were as follows: rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,608 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,262 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,872 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,515 CNY/ton. Weekly changes were -0.59%, -0.48%, -0.88%, -2.14%, and +0.13% respectively [1][14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products was 8.7271 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons. Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [1][20]. (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.4864 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 481,000 tons. The apparent consumption changes for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate were +21,140 tons, +17,030 tons, +8,830 tons, -1,520 tons, and +2,620 tons respectively [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.8468 million tons, down 759,300 tons week-on-week. Social inventory fell by 519,000 tons to 11.2483 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 240,300 tons to 4.5985 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - As of April 18, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +73 CNY/ton, +22 CNY/ton, and +60 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -35 CNY/ton, -45 CNY/ton, and -84 CNY/ton [1][39].