Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][6] Core Insights - The company has established a solid foundation for steady growth, with effective order management and a focus on product innovation and market expansion [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand synergy and improve its marketing strategies to better adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [6] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and stable profit margins, despite some challenges in brand collaboration and market competition [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 36,011 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.8%, and is expected to grow to 40,011 million by 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,243 million in 2024, remaining stable in 2025, and then increasing to 13,282 million by 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 10.04 in 2024, with slight declines in 2025 and 2026, before rising to 10.89 in 2027 [2] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining market order and channel management, which is expected to help it navigate through economic cycles effectively [6] - The stock's target price is set at 285 yuan, compared to the current price of 192.16 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on four key areas: national expansion, youth engagement, internationalization, and precise consumer service [6] - Product innovation and marketing strategies will be enhanced to attract younger consumers and improve brand visibility [6] - The company is committed to maintaining market order and ensuring channel cooperation, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive environment [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 0.21% this week, underperforming the market by 1.43 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with AIA up by 4.95% and China Pacific down by 3.5% [2]. - The report highlights that the risk associated with real estate investments by insurance companies is expected to be manageable, with a focus on the debt extension of Vanke [2][5]. - The report anticipates that while performance may fluctuate in the short term due to equity market trends, a growth trend is expected to continue into 2025, although 2026 may see performance pressure from investment factors [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index's absolute performance over the last month is 0.8%, with a 6-month performance of 13.7% and a 12-month performance of 12.8% [8]. - The relative performance against the benchmark shows a 2.2% outperformance over one month, but underperformance of -5.5% over six months and -3.2% over twelve months [8]. Company Analysis - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies, with China Life at 6.34 CNY for 2025E and China Pacific at 5.68 CNY for the same year. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also provided, with China Life at 6.89x and China Pacific at 6.20x [11]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios indicate that China Life has a PB of 1.97, while China Pacific has a PB of 1.12, both rated as "Recommended" [11]. Real Estate Investment Risk - The report analyzes the exposure of listed insurance companies to real estate investments, noting that the overall exposure remains relatively small compared to total investment assets. For instance, Ping An's real estate investment exposure is 3.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - The report indicates that the increase in real estate investment exposure for China Pacific is primarily due to a rise in investment properties [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that improvements in life insurance costs may drive valuation recovery, with a shift towards dividend insurance and easing solvency requirements expected to enhance long-term investment returns [5].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to rise significantly from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year due to food price fluctuations[3] - Industrial production growth is projected at approximately 5.3% for November, supported by external demand[4] - Exports are anticipated to increase by about 5% year-on-year in dollar terms, with imports also expected to rise by 5%[4] Group 2: Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[6] - M2 growth is expected to be around 8.0%, while M1 is projected to grow by approximately 5.6%[6] - The stock of social financing growth is forecasted to decline to about 8.3%[6] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to fall to around -2.4% for January to November, with real estate investment down by 15.5%[4] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.6%, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0%[22] - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -20% for November, with cumulative growth from January to November at -8.1%[18]

京沪社零为何背离？ ❖ 核心观点 本文聚焦各能级城市的社零表现。一线偏弱，二三线偏强的格局未变。但一线 内部，北京上海社零增速明显背离，今年前 10 个月，北京社零同比仍为-3.2%， 上海则升至 4.8%。原因或与统计因素有关，社零按"企业注册地"统计，若企 业迁移，则对应社零也会跟随迁移。据北京统计局，近期北京企业设立跨区域 经营主体明显增加，此前计入北京的社零迁移至外地，进而拖累北京社零。但 上海或在推动社零制度改革，即从此前的"企业注册地"切换至"活动发生地"， 在这一制度下，企业设立异地经营主体对上海社零影响不大，这一统计因素或 是北京、上海社零分化的重要原因之一。当然，抛开统计因素回归基本面来看， 上海市的居民消费、企业消费确实在改善，社零读数回升有基本面支撑。 ❖ "不变"：仍是一线偏弱，二三线偏强 2024 年，我们曾分析为何一线社零偏弱、三四线社零偏强，参见报告《一线城 市消费为何走弱？》、《三四线城市消费为何偏强？》，目前来看，这一趋势仍 在延续，今年前三季度，全国社零同比增长 4.5%，一线增速为 1.5%，而二线 （19 城）、三线（轧差得来）增速均在 5%左右，2024 年为-1.6 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 从红利年化 10%看收益来源 ——多行业联合红利资产 11 月报 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual-driven business model of the insurance industry, focusing on both assets and liabilities, with a long-term outlook on liability cost optimization driving valuation recovery [8][9] - The insurance sector is currently at a cyclical turning point, with improving operational quality and a focus on cost reduction strategies, particularly in life insurance [9][10] Industry Overview - The insurance sector's total market capitalization is approximately 32,040.19 billion, with a circulating market value of 22,048.26 billion [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in the insurance index, with a 13.8% rise over the past 12 months, although it has underperformed relative to the broader market in the last six months [5] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies such as China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An are projected to have varying EPS growth rates, with China Life expected to see EPS of 6.34 in 2025 and 4.10 in 2026, while Ping An is forecasted to reach 8.02 in 2025 and 8.83 in 2026 [3] - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies, including China Life and China Pacific, based on their projected performance and valuation metrics [3] Investment Themes - The report highlights the importance of the "cost reduction trifecta" in life insurance, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, and dynamic adjustment of preset interest rates [8][9] - In property insurance, the "reporting and operation integration" is expected to optimize costs and enhance profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance segments [9][10] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term performance is closely tied to equity market trends, with expectations of continued growth in 2025, but potential pressure on performance in 2026 due to investment factors [9][10] - Long-term, the report anticipates that improvements in life insurance costs will drive valuation recovery, with a projected NBV growth rate of over 15% for listed insurance companies in 2026 [9][10] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates is expected to alleviate liability costs and enhance the attractiveness of dividend insurance products [24][38] - Recent regulatory guidance aims to stabilize dividend levels in insurance products, preventing excessive competition and ensuring sustainable growth [38][39]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the explosive growth in AI computing demand, driven by advancements in multi-modal applications and the introduction of new hardware products, which is expected to significantly boost the AI hardware industry, including servers, switches, and storage solutions [5][12][13] - The North American tech giants have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with a total of $257.42 billion in CapEx for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65%, indicating strong confidence in AI investments [13][16][17] - The domestic AI computing chip industry is anticipated to accelerate its development due to the constraints on high-end AI chips from overseas, with companies like Cambricon and Moore Threads leading the charge in chip design [12][21][32] Group 2 - The PCB industry is experiencing high growth in demand due to the continuous iteration and upgrade of AI servers and high-speed switches, pushing the industry towards higher density and performance [33][37] - The report highlights the increasing complexity and requirements for high-layer PCBs, with a growing demand for 14-layer and above PCBs, driven by the needs of AI and high-speed applications [37][38][39] - The development of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP is expected to enhance system integration efficiency, which is crucial for the performance of AI applications [51][52] Group 3 - The storage sector is entering a new growth cycle, driven by the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage solutions, with expectations of a significant rise in storage prices in 2026 [5][12][24] - The report outlines the shift towards a layered storage structure combining HBM and large cache solutions to meet the bandwidth demands of multi-modal applications, indicating a robust future for the storage industry [12][24][29] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards a more self-sufficient model, with domestic manufacturers ramping up production capabilities in response to external constraints, particularly in critical equipment and materials [7][12][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 78 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.428 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.92% to 1.205 billion yuan [2]. - The overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, with a 21% year-on-year increase in revenue, particularly in the reagent business, which saw a 37% increase [8]. - The company is optimizing its installation structure, with 1,144 automated chemical luminescence instruments installed in the domestic market, 78% of which are large machines, indicating a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects total revenue to reach 4.787 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.786 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 2.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is facing challenges, with a 11% decline in main business revenue to 1.955 billion yuan due to factors like centralized procurement and unbundling of testing packages [8]. - The overseas market is less affected by policy uncertainties, and the gross margin for overseas operations has improved to 69.49%, surpassing domestic levels [8]. - The company is transitioning to higher-margin X-series products, which is expected to support long-term growth [8].

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]