行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 48 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比增加 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,550.76 | 1.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 12,027.70 | 1.26 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.0% | 13.6% | -5.3% | | 相对表现 | -1.6% | -5.6% | -22.2% | -24% -9% 6% 20% 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 25/09 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, the convertible bond market showed a trend of increasing in price with decreasing trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous period. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all increased to varying degrees [1]. - The market style favored large - cap growth stocks. Large - cap growth stocks rose by 1.42%, outperforming other styles [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.3624 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.67% compared to the previous day, while the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 188.9449 billion yuan, an increase of 18.26% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 482.09, up 0.10% for the day, down 0.18% for the week, down 0.49% for the month, and up 16.29% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - Among the A - share indices, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65% for the day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% for the day; the ChiNext Index closed at 3092.50, up 1.31% for the day [7]. Market Capital Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.3624 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.67% compared to the previous day, while the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 188.9449 billion yuan, an increase of 18.26% [1][8]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 343 million yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.46bp to 1.84% [1][11][12]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased to 132.54 yuan, up 0.08% compared to the previous day. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan increased by 0.51pct to 54.55% [2]. - The fitting conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased to 31.50%, up 0.04pct compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value increased by 0.61% to 100.63 yuan [2][17][22]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of gains were non - ferrous metals (+2.85%), communication (+2.81%), and electronics (+1.58%); the top three industries in terms of losses were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.43%), environmental protection (-0.23%), and real estate (-0.06%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries in terms of losses were environmental protection (-3.58%), steel (-1.37%), and household appliances (-1.01%); the top three industries in terms of gains were communication (+0.85%), electronics (+0.82%), and coal (+0.66%) [3]. ETF Share Changes - The share of Bosera Convertible Bond ETF was 4.237 billion shares, with a net decrease of 27.9 million shares [37]. - The share of Haifutong Convertible Bond ETF was 802 million shares, with a net increase of 10.1 million shares [40].

Group 1: Liquidity Trends - The supply side of funds shows a slight decrease in newly established equity public funds, while leveraged and ETF funds are experiencing a reversal in their differentiation trend, with net inflows of leveraged funds recovering and significant outflows from stock ETFs[2] - The demand side of funds has slightly contracted, with both equity financing and industrial capital net reduction expanding, while southbound funds have shown a contraction, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 700 billion over the past six months[2] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat index indicates that the media sector has increased by 23 percentage points to 73%, light industry by 18 percentage points to 60%, and military industry by 9 percentage points to 40%; conversely, the healthcare services sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 43%, non-ferrous metals by 12 percentage points to 32%, and brokerage firms by 10 percentage points to 2%[2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has shown a cautious rebound, with retail investor net inflows into A-shares amounting to 47.37 billion, a significant decrease of 158.04 billion from the previous value, placing it at the 9.0% percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public fund clustering has strengthened, with a focus on value and consumer sectors[2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Strategy - The article emphasizes the need to boost domestic consumption, noting that China's consumption rate lags behind developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, particularly in service consumption[1] - Short-term measures include optimizing supply and reducing restrictions to enhance the availability of quality consumer goods and services[1] - Long-term strategies focus on increasing residents' income and improving the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution[1] Group 2: Investment Expansion - The report advocates for effective investment expansion, particularly in infrastructure, while maintaining a balance to avoid excessive investment[2] - Key investment areas include urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects[2] - The government plans to implement significant projects in consumer-related sectors, such as elderly care and health services, to support consumption[2] Group 3: Policy Developments - A recent plan aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on areas like elderly products and smart connected vehicles[2] - The government has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the past two years[2] - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of investment returns and addressing the issues of "heavy investment, light returns" in certain sectors[2]

Economic Trends - The WEI index decreased to 4.62% as of November 23, down from 5.42% the previous week, indicating a downward trend in economic activity[3] - Passenger car retail sales showed a slight improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 7% as of November 23, compared to a previous decline of 9%[2] - Port container throughput rebounded significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 5.4% as of November 23, and a year-on-year increase of 10% over the past four weeks[2] Real Estate and Construction - Residential sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 35% in transaction area across 67 cities as of November 29[3] - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 0.88% as of November 23, indicating low volatility[14] - Cement dispatch rates remained low, at 33.4% in the third week of November, unchanged from the previous week and down from 36.5% year-on-year[18] Commodity Prices - Precious metals and agricultural product prices increased, with COMEX gold rising by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce and LME copper increasing by 2.7% to $10,985 per ton[2] - Domestic agricultural prices generally rose, with vegetable prices up 1.9% and egg prices up 1.2%, while pork prices fell by 0.4%[49] Trade and Exports - New export orders index for China's manufacturing sector rose to 47.6% in November, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[25] - The number of outbound container ships from China to the U.S. showed a year-on-year decline of 7.4% as of November 29, an improvement from a decline of 16.9% in October[25] Interest Rates and Debt - As of November 28, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.4017%, 1.6183%, and 1.8412%, respectively, with slight increases from the previous week[71] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 504 billion yuan in the week ending December 1, with 390 billion yuan in special bonds[54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the precision scientific instrument sector, focusing on helium mass spectrometry leak detectors, which are critical for vacuum leak detection in nuclear fusion devices. This market is expected to see significant growth due to increasing capital expenditures in the controlled nuclear fusion sector from 2025 to 2028, with projected investments in major nuclear fusion projects in China reaching 146 billion yuan [2][11][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in precision scientific instruments and solutions, with a business structure that includes industrial detection instruments (61% of revenue), online monitoring instruments (27%), and laboratory analysis instruments (6%) [6][19]. Industrial Detection Instruments - The core business remains stable, with growth driven by demand in the new energy sector, semiconductors, and 3C products. The share of new energy clients increased from 36.88% in 2017 to 43.64% in 2019. The company has also seen rapid growth in overseas business, with revenue from international markets reaching 21 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 447.23% [6][10][36]. Controlled Nuclear Fusion Market - The company has entered the controlled nuclear fusion leak detection field, which is expected to generate future growth potential. The helium mass spectrometry leak detector is a mainstream method for vacuum leak detection in Tokamak devices, which are crucial for nuclear fusion technology [2][11][57]. Laboratory Analysis Instruments - This segment is seen as a sunrise industry with significant potential for domestic substitution. The market for mass spectrometry, chromatography, and spectroscopy instruments exceeds 50 billion yuan, with low penetration rates for domestic products [7][11]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 to 53 million, 99 million, and 143 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 266%, 87%, and 45%. The target price is set at 36.2 yuan, indicating a 61% upside from the current price [12][8].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the AI wave is initiating a new cycle in intelligent manufacturing, shifting the investment focus from cyclical fluctuations to "new hard-core" assets that can define the future and support the AI trend [8][9]. - Human-shaped robots are highlighted as the ultimate embodiment of AI intelligence, expected to revolutionize labor liberation and serve as a universal platform for AI interaction with the physical world [9][10]. - The report identifies solid-state batteries as a key technology that will unlock performance ceilings for human-shaped robots and electric vehicles due to their high energy density and safety [9][10]. Group 2: Human-Shaped Robots - The human-shaped robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have developed product capabilities in key components likely to experience significant valuation increases [13][17]. - The investment strategy focuses on essential hardware components rather than single manufacturers due to the uncertainty in design solutions, creating unique investment opportunities [25][28]. - Key companies to watch in this sector include Xinjie Electric, Huichuan Technology, and Weichuang Electric, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in human-shaped robots [17][30]. Group 3: AI Equipment and Materials - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is surging, leading to significant growth in high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCB requirements [32][36]. - The PCB specialized equipment market is expected to grow from $3.306 billion in 2020 to $4.111 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.60% in China [32][34]. - Key players in the equipment sector include Dazhu CNC and Chip Quik, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced PCB manufacturing [36][40]. Group 4: Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with major manufacturers like CATL and Zhongxin Innovation targeting 2027 for small-scale production [9][10]. - The global solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach ¥107.94 billion by 2030, indicating a significant capital expenditure cycle ahead [9][10]. - Companies such as Lead Intelligent and Hai Moxing are recommended for their potential to benefit from this new capital expenditure cycle [9][10]. Group 5: Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is transitioning from experimental phases to industrialization, with significant advancements in research and increased capital investment driving the industry forward [9][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in nuclear fusion projects, such as Hangyang Co. and Shanghai Electric, which are positioned to gain from this emerging sector [9][10]. - The demand for energy solutions is expected to grow, making nuclear fusion a critical area for investment as it promises to provide sustainable energy sources [9][10]. Group 6: Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is recovering, with excavator sales showing a positive trend, while overseas demand is also increasing due to factors like housing construction and manufacturing sector recovery [6][9]. - Major projects in China, such as the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project and the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, are expected to boost domestic machinery demand [6][9]. - Key companies in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, which are anticipated to benefit from both domestic recovery and international expansion [6][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance sector has significant investment opportunities in 2026, driven by external sales growth and business expansion despite domestic sales pressures [2][12][27] - The home appliance index has increased by 10% year-to-date as of November 24, 2025, indicating a positive market sentiment [7][12] - The report identifies seven key investment themes for the home appliance industry, focusing on government subsidy impacts, external sales opportunities, and technological advancements in product offerings [12][27] Investment Themes - **Theme 1: Impact of National Subsidy Policies** The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has been enhanced, leading to significant sales boosts. As of September 30, 2025, over 76 million consumers purchased more than 126 million appliances under this policy, potentially generating sales of approximately 430 billion yuan [12][27][30] - **Theme 2: Growth Opportunities in External Sales** Emerging markets show low penetration rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, suggesting substantial growth potential. If these markets reach China's average ownership levels, demand could increase by 2.3 times for air conditioners [12][27][33] - **Theme 3: Mini LED and Large Size Penetration** The trend towards Mini LED technology and larger screen sizes is expected to enhance the market share of Chinese black appliance brands. The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to boost global TV sales, benefiting Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense [12][27][33] - **Theme 4: Electric Bicycle Market Dynamics** The new national standards for electric bicycles are expected to consolidate the market, favoring leading companies. The standards will enhance product quality and profitability, despite short-term inventory pressures [12][27][33] - **Theme 5: Rise of Wet Cleaning Products** The report indicates that the wet cleaning product segment is gaining traction, with market share for leading brands like Ecovacs increasing significantly. However, growth may face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [12][27][33] - **Theme 6: Diversification of Business Operations** Home appliance companies are expanding their business lines, with firms like Midea and Anker exploring new growth avenues through innovative products and services [12][27][33] - **Theme 7: High Dividend Yield Assets** The report emphasizes the strong dividend-paying capabilities of leading home appliance companies, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns as cash flows improve [12][27][33] Company Performance and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, highlighting strong cash flow and dividend potential for leaders like Midea, Haier, and Gree [9][10][12] - The home appliance sector's overall market capitalization is reported at approximately 20,256.05 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of 18,086.47 billion yuan [4][12]

Core Insights - The report highlights three core trends in the consumer services industry: "New Recovery, New Ecology, and New Supply" [6] - Structural factors are aiding certain sectors in stabilizing and improving operations, indicating a gradual recovery from the bottom [7] - The integration of online platforms with offline operations is reshaping the industry ecosystem, enhancing competition and operational efficiency [8] Industry Overview - The consumer services sector has seen a slight revenue increase of 2.57% year-on-year, totaling 183.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 12.7% decline in net profit [20][22] - The sector's performance has been mixed, with tourism and education sectors showing significant growth, while the hotel and restaurant sectors faced slight declines [16][19] New Recovery - The hotel industry is experiencing a rebound due to increased tourism demand and a stabilization in average daily rates (ADR), with occupancy rates showing signs of improvement [31][57] - The Macau gaming market has shown strong recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching 24.086 billion MOP in October 2025, driven by non-gaming attractions [32][44] - The duty-free market is benefiting from policy optimizations, with sales in Hainan reaching 2.425 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a 34.86% year-on-year increase [32][38] New Ecology - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are competing in the instant retail space, each leveraging their strengths to enhance online and offline integration [42] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a shift towards standardized and professional supply chains, with the chain restaurant rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024 [46][48] New Supply - The tourism sector is transitioning from a "sightseeing + ticket" model to one focused on content innovation and immersive experiences, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Haichang Ocean Park leading this change [50][53] - The sports industry is evolving to combine spectator and participatory sports, creating new social engagement opportunities through digital platforms [54] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading hotel chains like Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, and monitoring companies with strong supply chain advantages in the restaurant sector [6][8] - The report suggests that innovative companies in tourism, sports, and education sectors, particularly those utilizing AI and content innovation, are worth attention for potential growth [8][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting that multiple factors are driving the rise in bank stocks, while real estate risks are deemed manageable [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the balance between supply and demand is crucial for economic recovery, with recent policies aimed at boosting consumer demand expected to enhance this balance [2]. - The M1 growth rate peaked and has started to decline, indicating a shift in deposit flows towards non-bank deposits due to a buoyant capital market [2]. - The exposure to real estate risks is decreasing, with a notable reduction in the balance of real estate development loans, suggesting that banks are adopting a more cautious approach [2][7]. - The report notes that the non-performing loan ratio for real estate has decreased, indicating improved risk management within the banking sector [7]. Monthly Market Performance - In November 2025, the banking sector saw a cumulative increase of 2.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.4 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [11]. - The report indicates that institutional investors have increased their holdings in bank stocks, driven by a stable fundamental outlook and expectations of valuation recovery [11]. - The valuation of state-owned banks has shown significant improvement, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio rising from approximately 0.76X at the beginning of the month to 0.78X by the end [13]. Banking Sector Fundamentals - The report tracks monthly data indicating that the banking sector's core revenue-generating capacity has strengthened, with asset quality remaining stable [8]. - The report highlights that the banking sector's current valuation is at a historically low level, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.53 and a PB ratio of 0.56 [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, particularly smaller banks with solid provisioning coverage [7]. - It also recommends attention to low-valuation joint-stock banks with potential for return on equity (ROE) improvement, such as CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank [7]. - The report indicates that banks with robust customer bases and excellent risk control are likely to have greater valuation elasticity in the context of economic structural transformation [7].