2025年04月15日 二次抢出口正在孕育,但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 -- 国际贸易数据点评(2025.3) 团队成员 周欣然(S0210525040005) 投资要点: > 别除春节提前导致的3月偏强效应,3月出口同比约5.7%,显著低于抢出口 集中的2月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给,我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3月出口(美元计价,下同)同比12.4%,较2月反弹达15.4个百分点, 但主要原因是春节提前导致的3月偏强效应。由于春节提前至1月,节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于2月,从而令3月出口同比错位性暂时走强。甚于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型,剔除这一暂时性因素后,3月出口同比5.7%,转而 显著低于2月达7.8个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3月进口同比-4.3%,较2月下滑 5.8个百分点,当月货物贸易顺差达 1026亿美元。4月以来,特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性,另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中,出口面临短期震荡、长期走弱的巨大不确定性。 > 本轮"抢出口 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 04 月 15 日 二次抢出口正在孕育，但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.3） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 剔除春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应，3 月出口同比约 5.7%，显著低于抢出口 集中的 2 月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给，我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 12.4%，较 2 月反弹达 15.4 个百分点， 但主要原因是春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应。由于春节提前至 1 月，节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于 2 月，从而令 3 月出口同比错位性暂时走强。基于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型，剔除这一暂时性因素后，3 月出口同比 5.7%，转而 显著低于 2 月达 7.8 个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3 月进口同比-4.3%，较 2 月下滑 5.8 个百分点，当月货物贸易顺差达 1026 亿美元。4 月以来，特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性，另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中，出口面临短 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [7][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.124 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.29% to 494 million yuan [2][4]. - The food manufacturing business showed stable growth, with revenue from food manufacturing, catering services, and other sales reaching 3.570 billion, 1.455 billion, and 55 million yuan respectively in 2024, with catering services growing by 15.24% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is expanding its presence outside Guangdong province, with significant growth in the number of provincial distributors, indicating successful pilot sales in new cities [5][6]. Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 31.72%, a decrease of 3.90 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 9.64%, down 1.59 percentage points [6]. - The company’s sales expenses, management expenses, and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue were 9.81%, 9.09%, and 1.60% respectively, showing a reduction compared to the previous year [6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 556 million, 620 million, and 673 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [7][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In different bull - bear stages of the bond market, low - grade credit bonds show different performance patterns. In bull markets, low - grade urban investment bonds have the highest narrowing amplitude of valuation yields, and in bear markets, low - grade bonds are relatively "resilient" [1][2]. - In response to the US tariff adjustment policy, from the national to local levels, efforts are being made to support the development of "integrated domestic and foreign trade" market entities and help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market. In the short term, the market may fluctuate due to tariff policies, but in the long term, the impact of tariffs may gradually decrease [3][42]. - This week, the bond market was volatile. Most varieties of financial bonds had a decline in valuation yields compared with last week, and most credit spreads widened. It is not recommended to trade second - tier perpetual bonds too much currently, and attention can be paid to AMC company - related bonds [59][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Bull - Bear Stages of Low - Grade Credit Bonds - **Bull Market**: Low - grade urban investment bonds have the highest narrowing amplitude of valuation yields, with the order of AA > AA+ > AAA. For example, from 2022/12/15 to 2023/6/14, the narrowing amplitudes of the yields of 3 - year urban investment bonds of AAA, AA+, and AA were 81BP, 95BP, and 104BP respectively, while the narrowing amplitude of the 3 - year Treasury bond yield was 30BP. This is due to the reduced risk of credit bonds and the high market risk appetite [1][13]. - **Bear Market**: The narrowing amplitude of the yields of AA - rated urban investment bonds is generally lower than that of AAA and AA+ grades (except for a short - term and rapid bear - market stage in 2024/9/23 - 2024/9/29). High - grade credit bonds have better liquidity, and investors have a high demand for coupon assets, so low - grade bonds are relatively "resilient" [2][13]. - **Individual Bonds in Bear Market**: The individual bonds with narrowing valuations in the bear market are mainly concentrated in real estate and some regions with large debt scales. For example, in the bear - market stage from 2025/3/18 to 2025/4/7, many central and state - owned enterprise entities' bond valuations narrowed, which may be because investors thought the bear market would not last long and high - coupon credit bonds were attractive [11]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Local Governments Support "Integrated Domestic and Foreign Trade" Market Entities to Cope with Tariff Impacts - The US has continuously adjusted tariff policies, and China has taken a series of counter - measures and internal economic - stabilizing policies. From the national to local levels, efforts are being made to support the development of "integrated domestic and foreign trade" market entities [22][23][26]. - Fujian Province has taken the lead in formulating a specific implementation plan, including establishing a key - enterprise contact mechanism, organizing foreign - trade enterprises to participate in domestic exhibitions, and providing financial and policy support to help enterprises expand the domestic market and international market [27][32]. 3.2.2 Investment Recommendations - **Focus on "Economic Powerhouses"**: Pay attention to provinces with good development momentum and debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc. Their provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms are relatively stable, and the duration can be appropriately extended to 5 years [41][42]. - **Regions with Debt - Resolution Policies**: Focus on regions where significant debt - resolution policies or substantial capital inflows have occurred, such as Chongqing, Tianjin, etc. Consider bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years [42][43]. - **Cities with Strong Industrial Bases**: Pay attention to prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as some cities in Guangxi, Hubei, etc. Choose bonds with a duration of 2 - 3 years [46][47]. 3.3 Financial Bonds Weekly Viewpoint - **Overall Performance**: This week, the bond market was volatile. Most varieties of financial bonds had a decline in valuation yields compared with last week, and most credit spreads widened. The widening amplitudes of insurance perpetual bonds and bank second - tier perpetual bonds were larger, while the credit spreads of some bonds such as securities firms' ordinary bonds and short - term financing bonds narrowed [59]. - **Investment Suggestions**: It is not recommended to trade second - tier perpetual bonds too much currently. For short - term commercial financial bonds, partial profit - taking can be considered. Pay attention to 2Y/AAA - and AA+ commercial financial bonds. Also, pay attention to AMC company - related bonds, as the AMC financial bond market is expected to expand [59][60]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - The report provides charts on the issuance of credit bonds, financial bonds, the subscription of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds, the issuance costs, the review and registration of credit bonds, and the completion of registration by the credit bond association, but no specific data analysis is given in the summary part [67][68][72]. 3.5 Secondary Market Observation 3.5.1 "Volume" of Secondary Transactions - The report provides a chart showing the trading volume and number of transactions in the secondary market over time, but no specific data analysis is given in the summary part [83][85]. 3.5.2 "Price" of Secondary Transactions No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is gradually recovering, with the overall A-share market down by 4.31%. The Sci-Tech 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 indices showed relative resilience, while the CSI 1000, micro-cap stocks, and ChiNext index led the decline. In terms of sector performance, consumer and financial real estate sectors were more resilient, while pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors faced declines [1][14]. - The report highlights the "counter-tariff" measures and the determination to stabilize the market in response to the U.S. tariffs. It notes that the Chinese government has taken rapid countermeasures to maintain a strong stance against U.S. tariff threats, which are characterized as "digital games" [3][33]. - The report emphasizes that the Chinese assets exhibit strong endogenous stability, and the impact of external market shocks may favor the return of foreign capital. It suggests that the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs should lead to a stable outlook rather than a reactive one [5][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the significant market fluctuations following the announcement of "counter-tariffs," leading to a "three-kill" scenario in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency. The S&P 500 index fell sharply, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a rapid decline before rebounding after the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation [4][42]. - The report outlines the measures taken by the "national team" to stabilize the market, including increased holdings in ETFs such as the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and others. The report notes that these actions are part of a broader strategy to support the capital market and restore investor confidence [3][50]. - The report identifies key investment directions, including domestic demand, independent innovation, countermeasures, the Belt and Road Initiative, dividends, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic circulation to mitigate the impact of export fluctuations [5][9].

Group 1 - The report highlights significant volatility in the US market due to fluctuating tariff policies and inflation concerns, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices experiencing notable movements [2][9] - The US CPI data for March showed a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, down from 2.8% in the previous month, indicating a downward trend in inflation [3][10] - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) exempted certain electronic products from tariffs, which is expected to benefit technology companies significantly [2][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Nasdaq Composite Index had the highest weekly gain at 7.29%, while the Hang Seng Index saw the largest decline at 8.47% [34][37] - In the commodities market, CBOT soybeans rose by 6.80%, while cotton fell by 5.18%, reflecting mixed performance across different asset classes [51][52] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 47 basis points to 4.48%, indicating a rise in long-term interest rates [56][60] Group 3 - The report notes that the US labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 recorded at 223,000, slightly above the previous week's figure [10][11] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March decreased to 97.4, down from 100.7 in the previous month, suggesting a decline in small business confidence [10][11] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor ongoing tariff negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries, as these could impact inflation and economic growth [2][9]

Group 1: Macro Policy and Industry Trends - The report highlights a focus on accelerating new infrastructure, energy system innovation, and upgrading consumption scenarios to build a new high-quality development pattern [1][11] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated 168 pilot projects for 10G optical networks, while the Beidou industry chain and spatiotemporal information industry planning are advancing [1][11] - The capital market shows characteristics of policy-driven and risk-averse sentiment, with defensive sectors like consumption leading the gains, reflecting cautious expectations for weak economic recovery [1][11] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is positively impacted by the newly released "origin" recognition rules, with a slight increase of 0.31% in the sector [1][33] - The report suggests that the origin of integrated circuits should be declared based on the location of the wafer fabrication plant, regardless of whether they are packaged or unpackaged [33] Group 3: Energy Sector - The report discusses the scale development of virtual power plants and the establishment of hydrogen energy standards, which are expected to promote the coordination of new power systems and green economy [1][21] - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of sharing technology and experience with South Africa to enhance its energy supply capabilities [19] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with residential land transaction prices increasing significantly, reaching CNY 0.4 trillion in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [23] Group 5: Consumer Electronics - The approval of national standards for voice interaction technology in smart home appliances is set to take effect on September 1, 2025, which will enhance the safety and functionality of these devices [24] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report outlines measures to support the high-quality development of innovative pharmaceuticals in Beijing, encouraging local production and the introduction of significant drug varieties from abroad [28] Group 7: Sports Industry - Financial support for the construction of sports infrastructure and the development of the sports industry is emphasized, with a focus on integrating sports with culture, tourism, and health [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for 2024, achieving a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth in the company's express logistics business volume reached 13.26 billion parcels, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, with a notable 15.3% growth rate excluding the Fengwang business [3]. - The company has successfully improved its profitability through cost control measures and operational efficiency, resulting in a gross profit margin of 13.9%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was 32.19 billion yuan, representing a 21.1% increase compared to 2023 [4]. - The capital expenditure for 2024 was 10.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.9% year-on-year, indicating a focus on lean resource planning [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 12.22 billion yuan and 13.64 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 15.4 billion yuan [4].

专注高质量服务，24Q4 散单同比增长超 50%。量：公司 2024 年实现快递件量 340.1 亿件，同比+12.6%，市占率 19.4%，同比 -3.4pp，24Q4 看，单季度公司实现快递件量 96.7 亿件，同比+11%， 市占率 18.8%，同比-3.5pp，公司持续提升散件业务规模，24Q4 散件日均件量突破 700 万单，较 23 年同比增长近 50%。价：2024 年公司单票快递业务收入 1.20 元，同比+2.5%；从 24Q4 单季度看， 中通的直客结构优化抵消了单票重量下降及增量补贴增加的负面 影响，单票快递业务收入 1.24 元，同比+11%，快递核心单票收入 提升 0.13 元。成本：2024 年公司单票快递业务成本 0.68 元，同 比-6%；单季度看单票运输加分拣成本下降了约 6 分。 经营性现金流稳定，25 年包裹量增长同比预期超+20%。2024 全年公司实现毛利润 137.2 亿元，同比+18%，净利润 88.9 亿元， 同比+1.5%，实现调整后净利 101.5 亿元。单季度看，24Q4 实现 毛利润 37.6 亿元，同比+20.2%，净利润 24.5 亿元，同比+10. ...

行 业 研 华福证券 汽车 2025 年 04 月 14 日 究 行 业 周观点（0407-0411）：关税交易钝化后，机器人 板块可开始左侧布局 投资要点： 汽车板块：关税影响边际转弱，关注年报行情 1、近期行情： 本周申万汽车指数下跌 5.5%，申万一级行业排名 21/31 位。 2、行业变化： 定 期 报 告 1）据乘联会，4 月 1-6 日，乘用车零售 21 万辆，同比去年同期增长 2%， 较上月同期下降 14%；乘用车批发 21.2 万辆，同比去年同期增长 11%，较 上月同期下降 21%。 2）4 月 7 日，大众汽车集团与地平线在高阶智驾领域展开合作。 3）4 月 10 日，上汽集团联合华为、Momenta、地平线、火山引擎、OPPO 等十几家合作伙伴召开"上汽之夜"发布会。 3、行情复盘： 据乘联会，1-3 月狭义乘用车批发销量增长 11%，其中新能源乘用车批发销 量增长 42%，属于较强表现，行业β较好。以旧换新政策加码，如上海补 贴范围扩大至外牌旧车。上海车展临近，新车发布预计密集催化。4 月年 报及一季报将密集发布，聚焦头部车企的利润兑现。2024 年中国汽车对美 出口仅占中国汽车出口总 ...