行 业 研 究 医药生物 2025 年 12 月 14 日 生物安全法案出现积极变化，重视 CXO 机会！ 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 12 月 8 日- 2025 年 12 月 12 日）中信医药指 数下跌 1.1%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.0 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 15 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 15.6%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.8 pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 16 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：昭衍新 药（+23.4%）、热景生物（+16.8%）、海创药业（+13.9%）、万泽股份（+13.4%）、 重药控股（+13%）。 降息落地及政策不确定性消除，重视外需型 CXO 投资机会：（1）美联 储 12 月降息如期落地，26 年预期再降 25 个基点。从海外生物科技一级市 场（PE/VC）投融资情况来看，25Q2-Q3 环比 25Q1 有所波动，我们认为主 要系美联储降息预期有所延后所致。随着美联储降息继续落地，海外生物 科技的一级市场投融资金额有望持续改善，带动 CDMO 的海外订单需求持 续回暖。（2）新版《生物安全法 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) rather than merely addressing internal competition. Seasonal demand during the "迎峰度冬" period has led to a 4.1% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in PPI, marking two consecutive months of increase. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that stabilizing coal prices is crucial. The lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies as "involution" competition is addressed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Despite unclear demand changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward, with a focus on high-quality core assets as primary investment targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of December 12, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 745 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 49 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 462 sample mines is 5.571 million tons, up 59,000 tons week-on-week but down 5.6% year-on-year. Power plant daily consumption has slightly increased, while coal inventory at Qinhuangdao has surged, with a coal inventory index of 212, up 10.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal - As of December 12, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is stable at 1,630 CNY/ton. The average daily output of 523 sample mines is 750,000 tons, down 0.4% year-on-year. The daily iron output is 2.291 million tons, down 1.4% year-on-year. The coking plant operating rate is 77.3%, slightly up week-on-week [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the coal sector based on several criteria: 1. Companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. 2. Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., Guanghui Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Gansu Energy. 3. Companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness, such as Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coal International. 4. Companies with coal-electricity integration models that stabilize cyclical fluctuations, including Shaanxi Energy, Xinji Energy, and Huaihe Energy [6][5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes domestic demand as a priority, with a focus on subsequent consumption policies to stimulate both goods and service consumption [3][15] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting investment opportunities within the AI industry chain [4][14] - The report indicates that the government will continue to implement policies to boost consumption, including potential extensions of subsidies and consumption vouchers [15] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference outlined eight key points, prioritizing domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market, alongside innovation, reform, and external openness [3][13] - Specific actions include implementing consumption enhancement initiatives and urban-rural income increase plans, as well as optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [3][15] Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 1.9% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances seeing drops of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively [5][16] - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with LME copper increasing by 0.82% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.03% [5][16] Industry Tracking - The report tracks various segments within the home appliance industry, noting significant sales data and price trends for key brands and products [29][30][34][35] - For instance, brands like Haier and Midea have reported varying sales performance across different product categories, with some experiencing substantial declines [29][30][34] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures within the industry [37][40] - It highlights the importance of monitoring these factors as they can significantly impact the profitability of home appliance manufacturers [37][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December is expected to improve demand in the U.S. real estate sector, which could positively impact related export-oriented companies [3][7]. - The price of hardwood and softwood pulp has increased by $20 per ton, with softwood pulp priced at $700 per ton and hardwood pulp at $570 per ton, providing cost support for the pulp industry [3][7]. - The actual controller of Oppein Home announced a plan to increase shareholding by investing between 50 million to 100 million yuan, highlighting the company's strong cash position and potential for dividend support [3][7]. Summary by Sections Export Chain - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut aligns with market expectations, and further cuts are anticipated next year, which may lead to improved orders for export-oriented companies [7]. - Home Depot's cautious sales guidance for the upcoming year reflects consumer hesitance in making large purchases due to high-interest rates, but growth in home renovation is expected as housing market pressures ease [7]. - Shipping costs have shown slight increases, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 0.3% and 7.8% respectively [7]. Home Furnishing - Oppein Home's major shareholder has initiated a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in the company's financial health and potential for future growth [7]. - The home furnishing sector is still in an adjustment phase, but valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [7]. Paper Industry - As of December 12, 2025, prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with white cardboard prices increasing by 20 yuan per ton, while double glue paper and copper plate paper prices have decreased [7][49]. - The pulp price increases are expected to support cost structures in the paper industry, with recommendations to focus on companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [3][7]. Packaging - The packaging sector is experiencing changes in control among companies, with potential impacts on stock performance [7]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and stable operations in the packaging sector [7]. Light Industry Consumption - E-commerce sales for personal care products have shown positive growth, with specific brands outperforming the market [7]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in oral care and medical products, as well as those expanding their product lines [7]. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco anticipates growth in its new tobacco segment, driven by the Velo brand, while facing challenges in the HNB segment due to increased competition [11]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International for their diverse product offerings in the new tobacco market [11]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown a decline in exports, with specific categories experiencing varying performance [25][31]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are adapting to changing consumer demands in the apparel market [25].

Group 1 - The report highlights that only one of the six sub-industries in the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns in the recent week [2] - The innovative drug industry in China is characterized by high investment, high risk, and long development cycles, focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as targeted therapy and gene editing [3][8] - The market size of China's innovative drug industry is projected to grow from approximately 819.8 billion RMB in 2020 to 1.14 trillion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.53%, and is expected to reach 1.22 trillion RMB by 2025 [3][9] Group 2 - The number of approved innovative drugs in China has significantly increased from 3 in 2015 to 48 in 2024, with 50 new first-class innovative drugs expected to be added to the medical insurance catalog in 2025 [9][21] - The report indicates that the innovative drug sector is becoming the core driving force for the pharmaceutical industry's upgrade, transitioning China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug powerhouse" [9][21] - The report notes that the innovative drug industry is currently facing both opportunities and challenges, including policy support and intensified competition, which may compress profits [10] Group 3 - The recent addition of 114 new drugs to the national medical insurance catalog includes 50 first-class innovative drugs, with a success rate of 88% [21] - The report emphasizes that the central economic work conference has outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, including optimizing drug procurement and deepening medical insurance payment reforms [25] - The establishment of the medical device technology review center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has led to a 150% increase in the approval of innovative medical devices over the past five years [26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][15]. Core Insights - Cloud Deep Technology, one of the "Six Little Dragons of Hangzhou," recently completed over 500 million C-round financing, led by China Merchants International and Huaxia Fund, with participation from China Telecom and China Unicom's funds. This funding will support technology research and development, capacity expansion, and market development, while building a "technology-industry-scenario" ecosystem to promote the commercialization of embodied intelligent robots [3][4]. - The company has developed a full-link technology system for "perception-decision-execution." It launched the M20 wheeled robot in April, capable of operating in extreme environments, and the DR02 humanoid robot in October, which breaks the limitations of controlled environments. The DeepVLA 1.0 navigation system was also introduced, enabling precise navigation across floors for civilian applications [4][5]. - The humanoid robot market in China is projected to reach nearly 38 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030. Sales of humanoid robots are expected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5]. Summary by Sections Financing and Development - Cloud Deep Technology secured over 500 million in C-round financing, which will facilitate multi-dimensional development and capital-driven technology transformation [2][3]. Product Innovations - The company has released the M20 wheeled robot and the DR02 humanoid robot, both designed to operate in extreme conditions, along with the DeepVLA 1.0 navigation system for enhanced civilian applications [4]. Market Potential - The humanoid robot market in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of nearly 38 billion by 2030 and a substantial increase in unit sales [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The development of AI large models has led to an explosive growth in global data center energy demand, making traditional fossil energy insufficient. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are seen as a key solution due to their power adaptability and near-zero emissions [4][5]. - Major technology companies like Google and Amazon are investing in SMRs, while China is forming alliances with over 60 entities, including China National Nuclear Corporation and China Huaneng, to create a complete industrial chain from R&D to commercialization [4][5]. - China has a technological lead in the SMR sector, with successful trials of the "Linglong One" and commercial operations of the Shandong Shidao Bay High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. The establishment of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor alliance aims to enhance technological advantages and reduce construction costs [5][6]. Company Summaries - **Jingye Intelligent**: Collaborating with Zhejiang University to establish a micro-reactor/SMR technology R&D center, showcasing significant development potential in the context of rising AI energy demands [6]. - **Jia Electric**: The main helium fan is the only power device in the primary loop of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with its subsidiary Ha Electric's nuclear main pump leading in the nuclear power sector [6]. - **Guoguang Electric**: The company's filters and cladding systems are key components of the ITER project [6]. - **Lanshi Heavy Industry**: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [6]. - **Kexin Electromechanical**: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power products and replacing imports with new fuel transport containers [6]. - **Hailu Heavy Industry**: Services various reactor types, including third and fourth-generation reactors and thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - **Jiangsu Shentong**: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and nuclear-grade ball valves for new nuclear power projects in China [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - From January to November 2025, the total fixed asset investment in railways reached 753.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, effectively driving overall social investment [4][5]. - The China National Railway Group is focused on implementing national strategies and regional development to accelerate railway planning and construction, achieving significant breakthroughs in key projects [4][5]. - The operational mileage of railways is set to increase significantly, with a target of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The railway construction results from January to November are notable, with key projects advancing rapidly [3]. - The China National Railway Group aims to ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for railway construction through optimized resource allocation and construction organization [5]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines that by 2025, the railway operating mileage will reach 165,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers [6]. - To meet the 2035 target, approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, need to be constructed from 2026 to 2035, averaging 3,500 kilometers of new railway lines annually [6]. Recommended Companies - China CNR: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong industry position [6]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corp: A leading provider of rail transit control systems [6]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [6]. - Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [6]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [6]. - Huahui Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance, with rich experience in technology development and project implementation [6].

工业金属：基本面偏紧叠加降息预期，铜价刷新年度高点。铜，美联 储降息预期仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息 加深提振投资和消费，叠加特朗普政府后续可能宽财政带来的通胀反弹将 支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。 铝，短期处于季节性淡季或导致铝价震荡运行；中长期看，国内天花板+ 能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 个股：铜，关注江铜、洛钼、盛屯、藏格、金诚信及北铜，H股关注中色 矿及五矿等。铝，关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标 的。 华福证券 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20251213 周报：美联储降息靴子落地，周内金银 铜等金属表现强势 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美联储降息靴子落地，黄金震荡偏强运行。美国劳工部12月4 日公布的数据成为市场焦点，上周初请失业金人数意外降至19.1万人，创 下逾三年来的最低水平，远低于经济学家预期的22万人。这一降幅达2.7 万人，缓解了此前对劳动力市场急剧恶化的担忧。在俄乌冲突方面，美国 施压乌克兰和谈的同时，法、德、英领导人在伦敦会晤泽连斯基并明确表 达支持， ...

Market Performance Review 2025 - The economic environment gradually stabilized under policy support, with PMI remaining below the growth line, indicating a "weak stabilization" trend [3][8] - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed, while CPI showed an overall upward recovery, leading to a structural recovery in the economy, particularly in small-cap tech stocks driving a "fast bull" market [3][8] - The transition from "short on stocks, long on bonds" to "long on stocks, short on bonds" reflects a shift in trading logic, with the performance of equity assets improving significantly compared to bonds [9][31] Balance Between New and Traditional Economies - The contribution of the new economy to GDP remains limited, although it is steadily increasing, making it difficult to drive overall growth [3][20] - A style switch occurred post-August, with growth styles accelerating while value styles declined, indicating a divergence in returns between high and low valuation styles [3][20] - The valuation of the tech sector reached 3.95 times, higher than other sectors, suggesting that high valuation tech stocks may struggle to sustain market momentum [3][20] Market Outlook and Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to be driven by value and quality styles in 2026, similar to the value bull market of 2016-2017, without necessarily requiring high trading volumes [3][19] - The investment logic for 2026 is characterized by "long on beta, short on volatility," with a focus on low-valuation value stocks to capture beta returns [3][19] - The market is entering a stable phase, with a gradual realization of low-valuation assets rather than a short-term surge in high-volatility assets [3][19] Fund Market Dynamics - The public fund market is characterized by a lack of incremental growth, maintaining a stock game due to the absence of new capital inflows [24][27] - Active equity funds show a significant bias towards sectors such as electronics, power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and communications [27][28] - The trend of excess savings has peaked and is now flowing into the equity market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [28][30]