Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Directly extract factors from industry index data such as volume, price, and valuation, and update the factor library at the end of each quarter[30] - **Model Construction Process**: The model adopts weekly frequency rebalancing, selecting the top five industries with the highest composite multi-factor scores for equal-weight allocation every weekend[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved an absolute return of 28.79% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.68 percentage points[30] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 31.39% - Annualized Volatility: 18.12% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.73 - Maximum Drawdown: -19.63% - Calmar Ratio: 1.60 - Last Week Performance: 3.15% - Year-to-Date (YTD): 28.79%[32] Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The asset allocation weights are mainly calculated based on the recent trends of various assets, with stronger trend assets assigned higher weights. The internal equity asset allocation weights directly adopt the monthly views of the monthly frequency industry rotation model[34] - **Model Construction Process**: The model's latest holdings include dividend style ETFs and ETFs related to pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, media, steel, and energy chemicals[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has risen by 0.34% last week and has accumulated a 5.69% return this year[34] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 6.52% - Annualized Volatility: 3.81% - Maximum Drawdown: 4.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.71 - Calmar Ratio: 1.40 - Year-to-Date (YTD): 5.69% - Last Week Performance: 0.34%[39] Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict future returns of global major assets using a cycle three-factor pricing model, and construct the portfolio using a "momentum selects assets, cycle adjusts weights" risk budgeting framework[40] - **Model Construction Process**: The strategy currently overweights bonds and foreign exchange, with higher risk budgets assigned to assets such as Chinese bonds and US bonds[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 7.22% in the backtest period, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50[40] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 7.22% - Annualized Volatility: 4.82% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.50 - Calmar Ratio: 1.12 - Year-to-Date (YTD): -3.04% - Last Week Performance: 0.61%[41] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: Construct sentiment indicators from the perspectives of the put-call ratio, implied volatility, and basis in the options and futures markets[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Put-Call Ratio**: Observe the ratio of the trading volume of call options to put options in the 50ETF and 500ETF options markets[17] - **Implied Volatility**: Construct the implied volatility ratio series of call and put options[20] - **Basis**: Construct the annualized basis rate weighted by the open interest for the four major stock index futures products[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The sentiment indicators show that the previous overheating sentiment in the A-share market has continued to ease[2] Factor Backtesting Results Sentiment Indicators - **Put-Call Ratio**: The ratio has significantly fallen from the high levels observed on July 23, indicating a more rational market sentiment[17] - **Implied Volatility Ratio**: Despite the stock market rebound last week, the implied volatility ratio of call options to put options has been trending downward, further reflecting rational investor sentiment[20] - **Annualized Basis Rate**: The basis rate has been fluctuating downward, indicating rational sentiment in the futures market[26]

证券研究报告 策略 如何抓住香港本地股的配置机遇 2025 年 8 月 10 日│中国内地 策略周报 香港本地股表现强势，获得超额收益 在《港股重估蓄势待发》，2025.5.23 等报告中，华泰总量及行业团队提出 需战略性重视香港的配置，除了投资者熟知的香港中资股外，也强调关注香 港本身作为小型开放经济体的修复（《香港资产相对优势凸显》，2025.5.22）， 以及香港地产（《把握资产重估预期下的香港地产机遇》，2025.5.25）、 银行（《重视中国资产重估下港银机会》，2025.5.23）、非银（《港交所： 人民币升值预期下的价值重估》，2025.8.10）等资产重估机会。2025 年 5 月 23 日至今，香港本地股和 MSCI 香港指数分别上涨 10.2%和 12.4%，相 对恒生指数（5.3%）和 MSCI 中国指数（5.9%）均有超额收益。 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 李雨婕 研究员 SAC No. S0570525050001 SFC No. BRG962 香港本 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Commodity Term Structure Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures the state of commodity contango and backwardation using the roll yield factor, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their roll yields - Go long on commodities with the highest roll yields and short on those with the lowest roll yields - **Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance recently, particularly in the industrial metals and agricultural products sectors[23][24] Model 2: Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures medium to long-term trends in domestic commodities using multiple technical indicators, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify trends in commodity prices - Rank commodities based on their trend strength - Go long on commodities with the strongest upward trends and short on those with the strongest downward trends - **Evaluation**: The model has underperformed recently, with significant losses in the black and energy chemical sectors[33][35] Model 3: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals using the inventory factor, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify inventory levels for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their inventory changes - Go long on commodities with the largest inventory decreases and short on those with the largest inventory increases - **Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with significant losses in the agricultural products sector[39][41] Model Backtesting Results Commodity Term Structure Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 1.69%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.09%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Glass (1.27%), PVC (0.32%), Rubber (0.31%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Sugar (-0.16%), PTA (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.25%)[30] Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -1.22%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.17%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Soybean Oil (0.26%), LPG (0.16%), Soybean Meal (0.07%)[37] - **Top Detractors**: Rebar (-0.28%), Soda Ash (-0.30%), Cotton (-0.33%)[37] Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -0.56%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.42%[39] - **Top Contributors**: Corn (0.54%), Polypropylene (0.27%), Nickel (0.22%)[43] - **Top Detractors**: PVC (-0.26%), Cotton (-0.39%), Soybean Oil (-0.46%)[43]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the liquidity-driven market may still have room for growth, supported by incremental capital inflows, particularly from trading funds and long-term investors [3][8][6] - The report highlights a recovery in public fund meetings and a potential increase in market volatility due to the upcoming mid-year reports and new trade negotiations, although the downside risk appears limited [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial effectiveness, with July's PPI expected to rebound from its low point, influenced by the policy's implementation and macroeconomic factors [4][5] Market Structure - The report notes that the two-margin balance has reached a nearly 10-year high of 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in trading funds [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of equity public funds as a key channel for residents to move their deposits, with a notable increase in the number of public fund meetings since mid-July [3][4] - The report suggests tactical allocations in sectors showing improvement and potential for catch-up, including storage, software, general automation, certain chemicals, insurance, and coal [6][8] Tactical and Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends tactical investments in sectors with improving sentiment and catch-up potential, such as storage, software, and certain chemicals, while maintaining a strategic focus on large financials, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [6][8] - The report anticipates that the market may experience fluctuations in risk appetite due to macroeconomic disturbances, but the overall downside appears limited [6][8] - The report suggests that the upcoming September 3 military parade could serve as a positive catalyst for market sentiment [6][8]

Economic Indicators - July CPI growth slowed to 0% from 0.1% in June, while PPI's year-on-year decline remained at 3.6%[6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI's month-on-month change narrowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in June[6] Export and Trade - High-frequency indicators suggest a potential decline in August exports, indicating a gradual retreat from previous "export rush" effects[1] - July's dollar-denominated import/export growth rates improved to 4.1% and 7.2% respectively, up from 1.1% and 5.9% in June[6] Real Estate Market - New home transaction area in 44 cities saw a year-on-year decline widen to 24.4% from 21.4% the previous week, with first-tier cities experiencing a 39.2% drop[61] - Second-hand home transaction area in 22 cities also saw a decline widen to 3.1% from 3.0%[61] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices fell 4.7% to $66.4 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose 1.2% to $3,404 per ounce[3] - Domestic copper and rebar prices increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while coking coal and cement prices rose by 1.7% and 0.7%[3] Financial Market Trends - Interbank liquidity showed marginal easing, with the RMB appreciating 0.39% against the USD[4] - Net issuance of interest rate bonds increased to 808.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year rise of 2.7%[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 315 million RMB, down 30.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million RMB, down 48.50% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to pressures in the physical book retail market, particularly in literary and children's books, as well as increased losses in overseas operations due to high inventory disposal costs and royalty expenses [2][3]. - The company is actively exploring diverse monetization paths and enhancing its IP operation capabilities, including adaptations of original works into comics and potential expansions into animation and film [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, domestic book planning and publishing business generated revenue of 242 million RMB, a decrease of 35.89% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.83%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points [2]. - The overseas business saw a slight revenue decline to 62 million RMB, with losses increasing to 11 million RMB due to higher costs associated with unsold inventory and royalties [3]. Business Strategy - The company launched 65 new titles in H1 2025, focusing on both general and children's literature, while also venturing into graphic novels and comics [4]. - The company is developing its IP, with successful merchandise launches based on its original IP "bibi Zoo" and new IP "Good Frog" [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with net profit estimates of 110 million RMB, 124 million RMB, and 139 million RMB respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment of approximately 29% [5][11]. - The target price has been adjusted to 19.24 RMB, corresponding to a PE ratio of 26.8 for 2025 [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.70 [1][11]. Core Views - The company is facing weak performance in the VIP segment and increased competition, leading to a need for significant investment to enhance its offerings and competitiveness [7][9]. - The management remains optimistic about future growth, planning to invest approximately USD 750 million in expanding and renovating facilities to improve high-end and non-gaming competitiveness [7][9]. - The company's current non-gaming offerings are considered weak compared to competitors, which may hinder its ability to attract customers effectively [9][11]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be HKD 28,491 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.87% from the previous year [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly to HKD 3,325 million in 2025, a growth of 3.96% [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is forecasted to be HKD 91 billion, down 6.9% from previous estimates [11][58]. Market Position and Competition - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovery is lagging behind the industry average, with a current recovery rate of 66% compared to the pre-pandemic levels [8][10]. - The VIP segment's gross revenue is only recovering to 21% of the levels seen in 2019, significantly lower than the industry average of 47% [8][10]. - Competitors are enhancing their non-gaming offerings and entertainment options, which may further challenge the company's market position [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face a challenging environment with intensified competition in the gaming sector, particularly in the VIP segment [11][58]. - The anticipated recovery in the Macau gaming sector is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, supported by favorable policies and increased tourist arrivals [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the diversified financial industry [1] Core Insights - In July, the total asset scale of ETFs increased by 8.1% month-on-month, up from a 4.3% increase in June, with stock ETFs growing by 4.6% and bond ETFs expanding by over 100 billion [4][11] - The competitive landscape shows a mixed trend in concentration, with CR5 declining while CR10 increased, indicating intensified competition among leading firms [4][6] - New product issuance saw a decline in stock ETF issuance while bond ETF issuance reached a new peak, surpassing 25 billion [4][22] - The rapid rollout of Sci-tech bond ETFs has led to a total scale exceeding 100 billion, enhancing the ETF product system and market ecology [4][8] Summary by Sections Total Structure - As of the end of July 2025, the total net asset value of all ETFs reached 46,547 billion, reflecting an 8.1% month-on-month growth, with stock ETFs accounting for 31,722 billion, a 4.6% increase [5][12] - The proportion of stock ETFs in the total ETF market was 68.2%, showing a slight decline of 2.3 percentage points [15] Competitive Landscape - The asset concentration ratios for ETFs as of the end of July 2025 were CR3 at 44.0%, CR5 at 57.0%, and CR10 at 78.2%, with CR5 decreasing slightly while CR10 increased [6][18] - Leading firms like Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PB maintained their positions, although their market shares saw minor declines [6][21] New Product Issuance - Stock ETF issuance in July 2025 recorded a slight decline to 10.7 billion, while bond ETFs saw a total new issuance of 37.9 billion, surpassing previous peaks [7][22] Policy Dynamics - The first batch of Sci-tech bond ETFs was launched in July 2025, with a total scale exceeding 100 billion, featuring a T+0 trading mechanism and physical redemption model [8][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in H1 2025, with revenue of 1.884 billion RMB (up 36.39% YoY) and net profit of 243 million RMB (up 56.79% YoY) [1][2] - The strong performance in Q2 2025 was driven by high demand in downstream sectors, particularly in wind and energy storage, alongside effective cost control that improved overall gross margins [1][3] - The company is focusing on core technology platforms and diversifying application scenarios, which is expected to enhance its market position [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.111 billion RMB (up 33.33% YoY, up 43.60% QoQ) and a net profit of 137 million RMB (up 38.11% YoY, up 30.34% QoQ) [1][2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 35.44%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points YoY, while the net margin was 12.68%, a slight decrease of 0.50 percentage points YoY due to increased credit impairment losses [2] - The company’s H1 2025 revenue from the new energy control business was 1.524 billion RMB (up 44.97% YoY), while the engineering transmission business revenue was 226 million RMB (up 11.50% YoY) [3] Business Segments - The new energy control business experienced robust growth, benefiting from strong demand in offshore wind and energy storage, although its gross margin decreased due to intensified market competition [3] - The engineering transmission business saw an increase in gross margin to 47.71% (up 8.26 percentage points YoY), attributed to the acceleration of domestic substitution and higher-value projects [3] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is actively promoting large-capacity power supply and power quality products, with significant growth potential in data centers [4] - The overseas revenue for H1 2025 reached 148 million RMB (up 54.46% YoY), accounting for 7.83% of total revenue, indicating strong growth momentum in international markets [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 642 million RMB, 750 million RMB, and 830 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.41, 1.65, and 1.83 RMB [5] - The report assigns a target price of 48.05 RMB for 2025, based on a PE ratio of 34 times, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth across its various business segments [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in net profit due to increased fair value of financial assets and investment income from joint ventures, with a notable increase in net profit of 156.26% year-on-year [1]. - The gaming business is expected to continue stable growth, supported by AI algorithms enhancing user experience and the expansion of digital marketing services [2]. - The company is deepening its digital technology layout, with ongoing advancements in data center infrastructure and AI applications in various sectors [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.414 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.09%, and a net profit of 377 million RMB, up 156.26% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 708 million RMB, down 3.66% year-on-year but up 0.16% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 234 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 386.45% [1]. Business Segments - The gaming business generated 706 million RMB in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 9.02%, while the subsidiary achieved 1.015 billion RMB in revenue, up 1.62% year-on-year [2]. - Digital marketing services saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 382 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.97% [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 673 million RMB, 773 million RMB, and 906 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 31.57%, 14.88%, and 17.16% [4]. - The target price for the stock is set at 19.65 RMB, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method [10][14].