证券研究报告 中国平安 (2318 HK/601318 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 拟发行可转债，NBV 或稳健增长 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 保险 | 6 月 4 日中国平安出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对 4 日拟 发行 H 股可转债的公告进行介绍，阐述了当前业务发展状况并进行前景展望。 寿险：NBV 有望稳健增长 分渠道看，今年以来公司银保渠道业务快速增长，1Q25 渠道 NBV 同比强 劲增长 171%。2023 年银保渠道推行"报行合一"，2024 年取消了一家银 行网点只能销售三家保险公司产品的"一对三"限制，银保渠道竞争环境持 续优化，平安大力发展银保渠道，我们认为公司合作的银行网点数量有望持 续提升。代理人渠道增长亦保持韧性，1Q25 在价值率提升的驱动下，渠道 NBV 同比增长 12%。我们认为，今年 9 月份行业预定利率或再次下调，有 望提升产品盈利性并带动销售动能改善。考虑到产品利润率有望持续改善以 及银保渠道强劲销售态势，我们预计 2025 全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.00 [8] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in cargo volume within the Asian region despite fluctuating tariff policies since April. The cargo volume is expected to remain stable and improve in April and May [1] - The easing of tariffs between China and the US in mid-May led to a surge in shipping rates for routes to the US, driven by concentrated shipments from cargo owners [3] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential in cargo volume due to regional market dynamics and the reshaping of industries, which will enhance the circulation of raw materials, semi-finished, and finished products [1][5] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian market has benefited from the easing of tariffs, with cargo volume and shipping rates showing a positive trend since April 10. The average container shipping price index for Southeast Asia increased by 6.9% in April and decreased by 6.1% in May, with year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 2.3% respectively [2] - The average container shipping price index for Asia increased by 2.3% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0% [2] Shipping Rates and Capacity - The tightening of capacity for small and medium-sized container ships has led to an increase in charter rates, with a 78.9% year-on-year rise in the average charter rate for 1,000 TEU container ships from January to April 2025 [4] - As of May, the global new container ship orders accounted for 29.4% of existing capacity, with large container ships (over 8,000 TEU) having a higher order ratio of 46.0% compared to smaller vessels [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of USD 1.09 billion, USD 905.56 million, and USD 1.10 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The revenue projections for the same years are USD 3.27 billion, USD 3.10 billion, and USD 3.42 billion [5][7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is USD 0.40, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 39.78% [7][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of Zangge Mining, and the suspension of operations at the Kamoa Copper Mine [1]. - The spin-off of Zijin Gold International aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of gold assets, with a planned issuance of up to 15% of the total share capital [2]. - The completion of the acquisition of control over Zangge Mining (increased stake to 26.18%) is expected to facilitate further control over the Jilong Copper Mine and improve operational synergies in the salt lake sector [3]. - The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine has experienced temporary production suspension due to seismic activity, but the impact on the company's overall production and profits is considered limited [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion respectively, with a projected revenue increase of 13.73% in 2025 [5][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.52, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 26.1% [7][8]. - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10/20/13 for 2025, with target prices set at RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for A/H shares [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.50 [7]. Core Views - The company emphasizes that despite short-term performance pressure due to a warm winter and tariff impacts leading to a slight decline in retail gas volume, it aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1]. - The report suggests that the increase in sustainable profit contribution and improved free cash flow will lead to a revaluation of the company's value, indicating a potential buying opportunity after recent price corrections [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Volume and Margin Improvement - From January to April, the company's retail gas volume experienced a slight year-on-year decline, which was less than the national average decline of 2.2%. Industrial gas volume decreased due to tariff impacts on the export industry, while residential gas volume grew, supported by an increase in connected users. However, the average household gas consumption declined due to the warm winter [2]. - The overall gross margin improved slightly year-on-year, with better recovery in residential gross margin compared to the overall margin, and stable gross margin in industrial and commercial sectors. LNG spot prices have decreased, which is expected to further lower procurement costs in 2025 [2]. Impact of Real Estate Downturn and Service Segmentation - The company reported a year-on-year decline in new residential connections from January to April, with expectations of a 20% decrease in new home connections for 2025. The proportion of old home renovations is expected to rise to 30%, which may continue to suppress profit margins [3]. - There is a divergence in performance between comprehensive energy and comprehensive services, with comprehensive energy revenue growing year-on-year, while comprehensive services remained flat due to public sentiment impacts and government oversight [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure Optimization - The company has officially launched a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 3% of its shares, which would require approximately HKD 1.5 billion based on the closing price on June 4. The company has also committed to increasing the dividend payout ratio for 2025, with total dividend expenditure expected to be no less than HKD 2.1 billion if the DPS remains flat year-on-year [4]. - Capital expenditures are being optimized, with regular expenditures directed towards comprehensive energy, while there is limited room for reducing expenditures related to pipeline replacement and new connections [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at HKD 4.4 billion, HKD 4.9 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion respectively, and EPS projected at HKD 1.90, HKD 2.13, and HKD 2.38, reflecting a CAGR of 10% over three years [5]. - The target price of HKD 28.50 is based on a 15x PE for 2025E, which is above the five-year historical average of 12x PE. The increasing contribution of sustainable business profits is expected to reduce performance uncertainty and lead to a revaluation of the company's value [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.60 [9]. Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing its liability costs and adjusting its asset structure to support the real economy. It aims to reduce low-yield assets and increase general loan issuance, particularly in green, technology, and high-end manufacturing sectors [2][3]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in new non-performing loans and impairment provisions for the current year [4]. - The establishment of a financial AIC (Asset Investment Company) is expected to enhance the company's bond trading capabilities and integrate group resources to provide comprehensive financial services [3]. Summary by Sections Liability Cost Optimization - The company anticipates further optimization of its liability costs, particularly as higher-cost liabilities mature and are replaced with lower-cost ones. This is expected to improve the cost of liabilities and mitigate the downward pressure on loan pricing, with an estimated annual decline in net interest margin of about 10 basis points [2]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains stable, with a focus on key areas such as corporate real estate, credit cards, and local government financing platforms. The company expects the peak of new non-performing loans in these areas to have passed, with ongoing monitoring of potential pressures in retail consumer loans and operating loans [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 774 billion, RMB 782 billion, and RMB 801 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 1.1%, and 2.5% [5]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is RMB 39.39, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.60 times. The target PB for 2025 is set at 0.65 times, reflecting a clear strategic goal and potential for valuation premium [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 173.70 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained demand growth, particularly in the AIoT sector, with significant opportunities in smart home applications and AI toys [2][4]. - The company plans to raise funds through a private placement to enhance its product lineup, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 and AI edge chips, which will support long-term growth [4][5]. - The developer ecosystem is thriving, with over 140,000 open-source projects on GitHub, indicating strong community engagement and innovation [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Growth - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in the smart home sector, with faster growth in industrial, energy, and healthcare markets [2]. - The company anticipates continued demand growth in Q2, driven by new applications such as AI toys [2]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is focused on a "processing + connectivity" strategy, with ongoing product upgrades and a commitment to maintaining a gross margin target of 40% [2][5]. - New products, including the P4, are entering mass production, while older products like ESP8266/ESP32 are seeing extended lifecycles due to high customer loyalty [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2,632 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 461.47 million, reflecting a 36% increase from the previous year [7]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 2.94, with a projected net profit margin of 17.53% [7]. Capital Raising and Investment - The company plans to raise up to RMB 1.778 billion through a private placement, allocating funds for Wi-Fi router chips, AI edge chips, and the construction of a research center [4]. Market Position - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the Wi-Fi MCU market and expects the revenue contribution from smart home products to continue evolving [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.82 [8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see steady growth in credit, with a year-on-year increase anticipated, although retail demand and risk improvement trends still need observation [1]. - The bank is approaching a peak in deposit repricing, leading to continuous optimization of liability costs [1]. - The conversion of convertible bonds is expected, which will solidify the company's capital base [1]. Summary by Sections Credit and Asset Quality - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the company's loans increased by 14.3% and 14.7% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to RMB 157.3 billion and RMB 89.7 billion respectively [2]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio holding steady at 0.83% in Q1 2025 [2]. Interest Costs and Performance - The net interest income in Q1 2025 rose by 17.8% year-on-year, with a measured interest margin improvement of 6 basis points compared to 2024, primarily due to reduced liability costs [3]. - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates were 6.5% and 7.1% respectively, indicating a favorable position compared to peers [3]. Strategic Direction and Convertible Bonds - The new chairman has invigorated the bank's reform momentum, establishing a clear strategic path focused on reducing cost-to-income ratios and enhancing asset quality management [4]. - As of June 4, 2025, the bank's convertible bonds reached a conversion price, with an unconverted balance of RMB 5.7 billion, representing 6% of the market capitalization [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 21.8 billion, RMB 23.7 billion, and RMB 26.1 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 8.8%, and 10.0% respectively [5]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.82 times, indicating a valuation premium due to effective strategic transformation and broad business expansion potential [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.52 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company has significantly increased its land acquisition efforts and is actively promoting asset securitization through multiple REIT platforms, which has led to optimized financing costs [1][2]. - Sales volume has shown a narrowing decline, with a total sales area of 2.059 million square meters and sales revenue of 49.83 billion RMB in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.06% and 15.29% respectively, but with a notable increase in average selling price [2]. - The company is enhancing the operational efficiency of its held properties, which include commercial centers, rental apartments, office buildings, industrial parks, and hotels, while pushing for the securitization of investment properties [3]. Summary by Sections Development Business - In the first four months of 2025, the company achieved a sales area of 2.059 million square meters and sales revenue of 49.83 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 20.06% and 15.29%, respectively, indicating a 10 percentage point narrowing in sales revenue decline compared to 2024 [2]. - The average selling price increased to 24,000 RMB per square meter, a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [2]. - The land acquisition intensity has significantly increased, exceeding 50% in the first four months of 2025, compared to 22% in the previous year [2]. Asset Management Business - The company has a comprehensive layout of held properties and is leveraging REITs to advance asset securitization, with established REITs for industrial parks, rental housing, and commercial properties [3]. - The company is continuously improving the management capabilities of its held properties to meet the yield requirements for REIT issuance [3]. Performance - The company's gross margin was approximately 14.6% in 2024, still at a low point, but the land acquisition gross margin in 2023 has been higher than the settlement gross margin for 2024, indicating potential for long-term improvement [4]. - The average financing cost was reduced to 2.99% last year, with expectations for further reductions this year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see an increase in asset revaluation driven by enhanced land acquisition efforts and a complete asset securitization platform [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.46, 0.53, and 0.62 RMB, respectively, with a book value per share (BPS) of 12.52, 12.85, and 13.28 RMB [5]. - The company maintains a target price of 12.52 RMB, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0 for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient demand and stable loan quality, with a focus on shareholder returns through ongoing share buybacks. The operational stability and quality are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Loan Quality and Profitability - The C-M2 ratio slightly increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% from 4.8%. The 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 88.1%. The loan quality is considered healthy, with a provisioning rate of approximately 4.9%, significantly higher than the long-term vintage overdue rate of 2.5-3.5%, indicating a strong profit cushion [2] Demand and Customer Acquisition Strategy - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a loan issuance of 88.9 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating resilient credit demand. The customer acquisition cost per new credit user increased to 384 RMB from 312 RMB in Q4 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of API channel acquisitions and increased spending on high-cost information flow channels [3] Shareholder Returns - As of May 19, 2025, the company repurchased shares worth 178 million USD under a 450 million USD buyback plan, with expectations to complete the remaining amount within the year. The anticipated minimum shareholder return for the year is approximately 10%, supported by a commitment to a 20-30% dividend payout ratio [4] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion RMB respectively. The target prices are set at 55.6 USD and 220.9 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 6.5x for 2025 and DCF methods [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of藏格矿业, and the temporary shutdown of卡莫阿铜矿 [1]. - The spin-off of the subsidiary, 紫金黄金国际, aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of its gold assets, although the completion of this spin-off remains uncertain [2]. - The acquisition of control over藏格矿业 has been completed, increasing the company's stake to 26.18%, which is expected to facilitate better management and integration of operations [3]. - The卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿 has experienced a temporary shutdown due to seismic activity, but the impact on production for 2025 is expected to be limited, with a projected copper output of 520,000 to 580,000 tons [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are set at RMB 345.3 billion, RMB 368.3 billion, and RMB 390.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 13.73%, 6.67%, and 6.04% [7][18]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial ratios, including an expected EPS of RMB 1.52 for 2025 and a projected ROE of 26.1% [7][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price of RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for the company's A/H shares, based on a cautious valuation approach [5][8]. - The report notes that the average PE ratios for comparable companies in the copper, gold, and zinc sectors are 11, 20, and 14 respectively for 2025 [5][13].