Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.36 per share, up from a previous value of RMB 11.12 per share [7][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be RMB 7.281 billion and RMB 381 million, respectively, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 7.31% and 1.68% [1][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 1.832 billion and a net profit of RMB 69 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.41% and 57.82% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the expiration of specific operational assets related to Amazon Cloud and some clients vacating due to strategic adjustments [1][2]. - Despite short-term pressures, the company is accelerating the deployment of new data center projects, which are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's data center business achieved revenues of RMB 20.89 billion and RMB 5.21 billion in Q1 2025, with year-on-year declines of 5.96% and 4.01% respectively [2]. - The cloud computing business reported revenues of RMB 51.02 billion and RMB 12.54 billion, down 7.98% and 11.41% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 16.55% and 15.14%, with a slight decline primarily due to the impact of Amazon Cloud asset disposals [3]. Project Developments - The company is actively advancing its data center projects, with the first and second phases in Tianjin Baodi set to be delivered in the first half of 2025, and construction of the third phase already underway [2][3]. - New projects in Inner Mongolia are also being pushed forward, indicating a proactive approach to meet the growing demand driven by AI [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The EBITDA forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 15.71 billion, RMB 17.08 billion, and RMB 18.31 billion, reflecting a downward revision of 19% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4][6]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is RMB 7.735 billion, with a projected growth of 6.24% in 2026 and 12.10% in 2027 [6][22]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 416 million, with subsequent increases to RMB 502 million in 2026 and RMB 599 million in 2027 [6][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [7]. Core Views - The report recommends focusing on the improving supply-demand dynamics in the aviation, oil shipping, and highway sectors while advising caution in container shipping, cross-border logistics, express delivery, and railways [1]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a slowdown in supply growth, with demand for domestic and international flights increasing by 1.7% and 26.9% respectively in March [2][14]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger load factor remains high at 83.3%, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline of ticket prices [14][17]. - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions [29]. Airports - Airports have seen a steady increase in passenger traffic, with Shanghai's two airports experiencing a 7.5% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput in Q1 2025 [30]. - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue streams to improve profitability [30][34]. Shipping and Ports - The report notes that the international freight market has been volatile due to tariff policies, with expectations of a decline in container volumes in April and May [3][37]. - Oil shipping rates are projected to improve in May due to OPEC+ production increases, while refined oil shipping rates may remain stable [39]. Highways - The highway sector demonstrated strong performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profits, making it a favorable sector for dividend plays [4]. - The report suggests that the current low interest rates and risk-averse sentiment support the valuation of dividend-paying stocks in this sector [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, with a significant year-on-year increase in parcel volume but a corresponding decline in average prices [5][61]. - The report advises caution regarding franchise-based express delivery companies while maintaining a positive long-term outlook for well-capitalized and service-oriented leaders in the sector [5][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Core Insights - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market to stabilize the economy [1][2] - The reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points is expected to alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins [3] - Structural monetary policies have been introduced to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [4] - The expansion of financial asset investment company (AIC) pilot programs is anticipated to increase insurance capital inflows into the market [5] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank's RRR reduction from 6.6% to 6.2% is aimed at providing long-term liquidity of about 1 trillion yuan [2] - The LPR is expected to decrease by 10 basis points, which will positively impact banks' net interest margins and net profit growth [3] - Structural monetary policies include an increase of 300 billion yuan in re-lending for technology innovation and a 500 billion yuan re-lending for service consumption and elderly care [4] Financial Sector Support - The report highlights the importance of financial support for technology innovation, with a focus on increasing re-lending quotas and creating risk-sharing tools for tech bonds [4] - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase long-term investments, with a proposed reduction in investment risk factors to stimulate market participation [5] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include high-quality banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Shanghai Bank, with target prices set above current market levels [11][17] - The report emphasizes the dividend advantages of major Hong Kong-listed banks like ICBC and ABC, suggesting they are attractive investment options [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.40 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 6.52 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 6.99%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 2.05 billion RMB, slightly better than previous expectations [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue drop to 0.93 billion RMB, down 34.29% year-over-year and 40.04% quarter-over-quarter, indicating weak demand from communication clients [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the long term, despite short-term performance pressures due to weak communication industry demand [1]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue due to ongoing inventory digestion by terminal industry clients and uneven recovery in downstream demand. The FPGA product revenue was 5.79 billion RMB, down 32.36% year-over-year, despite a 60.84% increase in sales volume [2]. - The FPSoC product revenue was 0.43 billion RMB, down 3.91% year-over-year, with a slight increase in sales volume. The gross margin for FPSoC improved by 11.89 percentage points to 26.83% [2]. - The company's operating expenses ratio remained stable at 67.54% [2]. 2025 Outlook - The communication industry is still digesting inventory, but the company is expanding its customer base in the power, industrial control, and automotive markets, achieving revenue growth in these segments [3]. - A gradual recovery in communication client demand is anticipated as inventory digestion completes over the next two years [3]. - The company is enhancing its product matrix and service offerings, including a one-stop service system for FPGA/FPSoC chips, EDA software, and technical support [3]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.16 billion RMB and 8.18 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 17% and 25% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to generate revenue of 9.39 billion RMB in 2027 [4]. - The report indicates a projected EPS of -0.48 RMB for 2025, with a gradual improvement in net profit margins over the forecast period [6][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for basic chemicals and oil & gas is maintained at "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a bottoming phase in profitability for bulk chemicals in 2024, with signs of recovery in downstream demand beginning in Q1 2025 [2][19] - The oil price has been under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a decline in profitability across the oil and gas value chain [10][14] - The overall revenue for the basic chemicals and oil & gas sector in 2024 was 1,031.71 billion, with a net profit of 49.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1% and 0.8% respectively [12][18] Summary by Sections 2024 Annual Overview - The oil and gas sector remains relatively strong, while bulk cyclical products are facing profitability challenges [3][14] - The chemical industry is waiting for a supply-demand turning point, with 21 out of 35 sub-industries showing positive performance in A-shares [14][16] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the oil price decline has led to a decrease in profitability for the oil and gas sector, while downstream products are showing initial signs of recovery [19][20] - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 25,157 billion, with a net profit of 1,426 billion, indicating a year-on-year decline of 4% and 3% respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% and 78% [12][23] Industry Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see an upward trend, driven by improved domestic and external demand, as well as capital expenditure recovery [5][10] - Recommended stocks include Meihua Biological, Xinghuo Technology, and others, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the chemical industry [8][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.80 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's GGR and EBITDA margin have declined quarter-on-quarter, but the overall revenue has increased. The decline in GGR is attributed mainly to a decrease in win rates, particularly in the VIP segment. However, the company has reported an increase in turnover and stable market share, which contributed to a stock price increase of approximately 2% on May 7 [1][4]. - The company's Q1 2025 net revenue was USD 870 million, down 13% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 250 million, down 26% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 65% of the level in 2019 [1][2]. - The strong visitor flow during the May Day holiday is expected to support the recovery of the gaming business. Daily average visitors reached 170,000, significantly exceeding the tourism bureau's forecast [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) was USD 890 million, recovering to 61% of Q1 2019 levels, compared to the industry average of 76%. VIP gross revenue was USD 120 million, recovering to 15% of Q1 2019 levels, while mass market gross revenue was USD 710 million, recovering to 122% of Q1 2019 levels [2][4]. - The EBITDA margin for the company was 29.1%, compared to 30.9% in Q1 2019 and 34.0% in Q4 2024 [1][2]. Market Trends - The company is facing intensified competition in the gaming industry, with a noticeable trend towards individual customers. To adapt, the company is increasing the number of slot machines to enhance coverage of long-tail customers [3][4]. - The company plans to invest USD 700-800 million in 2025-2026 for the development of entertainment centers and performance projects to enhance the overall resort experience [3][4]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 6.80, reflecting a 7% discount based on the average EV/EBITDA of 8.4x for Hong Kong gaming companies. The adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced by 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.61 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover from the current downturn as the military industry gradually returns to normalcy, driven by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][12]. - The company has faced significant revenue declines due to a slowdown in demand from downstream customers, with a projected revenue of 2.154 billion RMB in 2024, down 34.09% year-on-year [1][6]. - Despite the challenges, the company is actively expanding into new fields and clients, particularly in military and civilian wireless communication sectors, which are anticipated to see a recovery in demand [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.154 billion RMB, with a net loss of 249 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 156.58% [1][6]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 31.06%, down 10.79 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is projected at -11.55%, down 25.01 percentage points [3][4]. - The company aims to achieve a net profit of 253 million RMB in 2025, with further growth expected in subsequent years [4][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is expected to recover to 2.373 billion RMB in 2025, followed by 3.007 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.675 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a growth trajectory [6][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 253 million RMB, 322 million RMB, and 399 million RMB, respectively [4][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margins, with expectations of 40.09% in 2025 [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to strengthen its position in military and civilian wireless communication, with several successful bids for military communication projects [2][4]. - The company is also focusing on technological advancements and new business areas, including 5G applications and smart systems [2][4].

证券研究报告 固收视角 双降落地，曲线走陡 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 07 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 其次对市场而言，择机或适时降准降息早有预告，本次降准时间和力度基本符合预期。在我们 4 月 18 日开展的问卷调 查中，89%的投资者认为未来三个月会降准。我们也认为降准时机基本成熟。一是当前银行超储率水位不高，中长期 流动性缺口有待补充；二是降准时间间隔已接近历史平均规律，上一次降准是 2024 年 9 月，根据历史规律降准间隔平 均为 4-8 月；三是政府债进入发行高峰，特别国债启动发行，降准有助于稳定资金面。 降息时间略早于预判，但并不意外，幅度为 10BP，低于去年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [6] Core Views - The demand for the new energy vehicle industry chain is improving, leading to a recovery in performance. The first quarter of 2025 shows a positive trend in profitability across various segments, particularly in the energy storage and wind power sectors [1][5] - The report highlights the significant growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales, which reached 3.075 million units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [2][28] - The energy storage market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the U.S. due to tariff expectations, while the European and Asia-Pacific markets are also expected to grow [3] - The photovoltaic sector is seeing a release of pent-up demand, with losses narrowing compared to previous quarters, although challenges remain due to price pressures in certain segments [4] - The wind power sector is witnessing an upward trend in performance, driven by strong demand and favorable policies, particularly in offshore wind projects [5] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 3.075 million units in Q1 2025, up 47.1% year-on-year, with battery installation capacity at 130.2 GWh, a 52.8% increase [2][28] - The European market also shows growth, with a 16.7% increase in new energy vehicle sales [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with cost and technology advantages in the supply chain [2] Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage installations in Q1 2025 totaled 11.79 GWh, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, but the bidding scale reached 102.7 GWh, up 299% [3] - The U.S. market saw a significant increase in large-scale storage installations, with a 164% year-on-year growth [3] - The report suggests focusing on inverter companies benefiting from the growth in Europe and Asia-Pacific markets [3] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector experienced a recovery in Q1 2025, with demand driven by new market policies, although profitability remains mixed across different segments [4] - The report notes that while some segments like silicon materials face pressure, others like glass and encapsulants are seeing improved profitability [4] Wind Power - The wind power sector is experiencing a performance turnaround, with strong demand and stable bidding prices [5] - The report highlights the potential for growth in offshore wind projects, supported by favorable government policies [5] Industrial Control - The industrial control sector shows signs of recovery, with a market size of 80.183 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [10] - The report indicates that leading companies are gaining market share in low-voltage frequency converters and servo motors, benefiting from accelerated domestic replacement [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [6] Core Views - The gradual implementation of incremental policies is expected to consolidate the trend of the real estate market stabilizing after a decline [5] - The adjustment of housing provident fund loan rates and the combination of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions are anticipated to open up space for commercial loan rate reductions [2] - The reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates is expected to lower the cost of funds for urban village renovations and stock housing acquisitions [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of financing system reforms and the inclusion of REITs in the stock connect program to support the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Incremental Policies - The central bank and financial regulatory authorities announced a package of financial policies aimed at the real estate sector, including interest rate cuts and reforms in real estate financing [1] - The expected implementation of these policies is likely to support the stabilization of the real estate market [5] Loan Rate Adjustments - The housing provident fund loan rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually [2] - The commercial bank housing loan rates are expected to decline as a result of these adjustments [2] Structural Monetary Policy - All structural monetary policy tool rates were lowered by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to reduce funding costs for urban village renovations and stock housing acquisitions [3] Financing Reforms - The report highlights the acceleration of financing system reforms that align with new real estate development models, aiming to stabilize real estate financing and meet housing demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core cities, particularly first-tier cities, and companies with strong resources and credit ratings, emphasizing the "three good" logic: good credit, good cities, and good products [5] - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Urban Construction Development, Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Holdings [9] - Hong Kong developers: China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, Yuexiu Property [9] - Property management companies: China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, China Overseas Property, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, Binjiang Service [9]