Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global virtual asset licensing system has essentially taken shape, with a systematic regional regulatory framework established [3] - Different regions exhibit variations in virtual asset licensing, reflecting distinct regulatory logics and strategic focuses [3] - Three major collaborative trends are emerging: local currency anchoring, asset custody, and anti-money laundering compliance [3] - Licensed operators and service providers are expected to become mainstream, with regulated trading platforms and stablecoin assets presenting lower risks [3] - The licensing will serve as a significant valuation support factor, with leading companies holding core licenses enjoying first-mover advantages and competitive moats [3] Summary by Sections 01 Global Virtual Asset Licensing System - The licensing framework in Hong Kong includes a dual regulatory structure for stablecoin issuers and virtual asset service providers (VASP) [8][9] - Hong Kong's VASP license requires compliance with strict operational and auditing standards, enhancing market transparency and investor safety [10] - Singapore's regulatory approach emphasizes innovation while ensuring market safety through a clear regulatory framework [11][12] - The European MiCA framework provides comprehensive regulations for crypto assets, categorizing them into electronic money tokens, asset-referenced tokens, and utility tokens [13][14] - The U.S. regulatory landscape is characterized by a complex multi-layered system involving federal and state-level oversight [17][18] 02 Differences and Collaborations in Regional Licensing - Hong Kong's licensing system is more inclusive for retail investors compared to Singapore's cautious approach [26] - The regulatory frameworks in Hong Kong and Europe aim to provide clear guidelines to foster innovation while ensuring compliance [26] - The U.S. regulatory environment is fragmented, requiring compliance with both federal and state regulations [26] 03 Investment Recommendations - Beneficial targets include licensed firms such as Zhongyou Capital, Bank of China Hong Kong, and Coinbase Global [4] - The report highlights the importance of holding licenses as a key factor for valuation and competitive advantage in the virtual asset industry [3][4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production increased by 2% year-on-year to 516,200 tons, with a full-year production forecast of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase compared to the previous year [2][11] - Nickel production in Q2 2025 saw a significant decline of 99% year-on-year, totaling 300 tons, due to temporary shutdowns [3][12] - Iron ore production reached 70.3 million tons in Q2 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a full-year forecast of 263 million tons, reflecting a 1% increase [4][13] - Coking coal production increased by 5% year-on-year to 10.3 million tons in Q2 2025, while full-year production is expected to decrease by 19% to 36 million tons [5][14] - Thermal coal production rose by 8% year-on-year to 4.1 million tons in Q2 2025, with a full-year forecast of 15 million tons, a 2% decrease [6][15] Summary by Sections Copper - Q2 2025 copper production was 516,200 tons, up 2% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Average realized price for copper was $4.43 per pound, down 3% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [19] Nickel - Q2 2025 nickel production was 300 tons, down 99% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Full-year nickel production forecast is 30,200 tons, a 63% decrease compared to the previous year [12] Iron Ore - Q2 2025 iron ore production was 70.3 million tons, up 2% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter [4] - Average realized price for iron ore was $79.93 per wet ton, down 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [19] Coking Coal - Q2 2025 coking coal production was 10.3 million tons, up 5% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Average realized price for coking coal was $177.32 per ton, down 28% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter [19] Thermal Coal - Q2 2025 thermal coal production was 4.1 million tons, up 8% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [6] - Average realized price for thermal coal was $85.70 per ton, down 31% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [19] Major Projects - The Jansen project is progressing, with 68% completion of the JS1 project, and capital expenditure expected to rise to between $7 billion and $7.4 billion [16]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decrease in net profit for the company, with a 70.1% quarter-on-quarter reduction to $164 million, despite a year-on-year increase of 720% [9] - The company faced increased tariff costs of approximately $115 million for aluminum imported from Canada, which impacted profitability [9] - The average realized price for third-party alumina decreased by 5.3% year-on-year and 34.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting market pressures [2] Production and Operational Performance - Bauxite production in Q2 2025 was 9.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Alumina production was 2.351 million tons, down 7.4% year-on-year and slightly down 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The total alumina shipment volume was 2.384 million tons, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year decrease but a 2.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue from third-party business was $3.018 billion, a decrease of 10.4% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.9% year-on-year [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment was $139 million, down 25.27% year-on-year and 79.07% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The adjusted operating cost per metric ton of produced alumina shipped was $323, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year increase [2] Market Outlook - The company expects alumina production and shipment volumes for 2025 to remain stable, with estimates between 9.5 million to 9.7 million tons for production and 13.1 million to 13.3 million tons for shipments [18] - The forecast for aluminum production in 2025 is maintained at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons, with a downward adjustment in shipment forecasts due to delays in the San Ciprián smelter restart [19]

Global Market Performance - The performance of major global markets was mixed this week, with the Hang Seng Index showing a significant increase of 2.84% [10][23]. - The NASDAQ Index rose by 1.51%, while the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.59%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight decline of 0.07% [2][11]. US Market Insights - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.7, indicating it is in a relatively high valuation range above 35 [1][11]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has a P/E ratio of 50.2, remaining above 50, while the NASDAQ Index's P/E ratio has risen to 42.9, also above 40 [1][11]. - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 38.37, approaching the 40 range, significantly higher than historical averages [1][11]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 5.53% this week, reflecting strong performance in the technology sector [4][23]. - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong saw the largest increase, with a rise of 12.17%, while the real estate and construction sector experienced a slight decline of 0.4% [25][36]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets showed varied performance, with the Argentine MERVAL and Brazilian IBOVESPA indices facing downward pressure, while the Hang Seng Index performed well [1][10]. - The report suggests that emerging market indices may experience corrections due to economic fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties [1][10]. Key Economic Data - In June 2025, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate was 2.7%, up from the previous value of 2.4% [37][38]. - The core CPI also increased to 2.9%, higher than the prior 2.8% [37][38].

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0714-0718） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月19日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月18日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 16.08 5 10 15 20 25 ...

- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance of weekly price and trading volume changes to measure industry crowding levels[3][17] - The construction process involves identifying industries in the first quadrant (price and volume both rising) and the third quadrant (price and volume both falling) and marking points outside the ellipse as industries with significant short-term deviations at a 99% confidence level[17] - The building materials industry experienced short-term trading overselling last week[3][18]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a 3.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in copper production to 160,100 tons in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2] - Copper sales decreased by 4.8% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 153,800 tons [2] - The realized copper price was $4.40 per pound, reflecting a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net cash cost for copper dropped to $1.12 per pound, a reduction of 42.5% year-on-year and 27.3% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to lower base costs and increased by-product revenues [3] Production and Financial Performance - Copper production for the year-to-date reached 314,900 tons, up 10.6% from 2024 [14] - Gold production in Q2 2025 was 48,300 ounces (1.50 tons), marking a 43.7% year-on-year increase and a 12.6% quarter-on-quarter increase [4] - Molybdenum production surged by 74.8% year-on-year and 41.9% quarter-on-quarter to 4,400 tons [5] - The average realized price for gold was $3,442 per ounce, up 43.5% year-on-year and 11.1% quarter-on-quarter [4] Project Development Updates - Ongoing developments include the assembly of key mining equipment at the Esperanza Sur mine and progress on the Centinela concentrator phase two [8] - The Los Pelambres expansion project is advancing with the installation of ventilation and lighting systems in the elevated tunnel [9] - The environmental impact assessment for the Zaldívar mine has been approved, extending its lifespan to 2051 [11] 2025 Outlook - The annual copper production guidance remains unchanged at 660,000 to 700,000 tons [12] - Cash cost guidance is maintained at $2.25 to $2.45 per pound before by-product credits and $1.45 to $1.65 per pound after by-product credits [12] - Capital expenditure guidance is also unchanged at $3.9 billion [13]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in production across various segments, including bauxite, copper, and aluminum, indicating strong operational performance [2][4][9] - The company is expected to achieve production levels at the higher end of its guidance for the year, particularly in bauxite and copper [22][23] - The report notes operational challenges in alumina production due to equipment reliability issues, which necessitated a reassessment of maintenance schedules [4] Summary by Sections 1. Bauxite - In Q2 2025, bauxite production reached 15.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [27] - The production is expected to meet the upper end of the annual guidance [22] 2. Alumina - Q2 2025 alumina production was 1.8 million tons, an 8% increase year-on-year but a 6% decrease quarter-on-quarter due to operational challenges [4][27] - The need for maintenance and reliability improvements has been identified [4] 3. Aluminum - Q2 2025 aluminum production was 0.84 million tons, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [27] - The New Zealand smelter and Kitimat operations are stable, adapting to external factors [5] 4. Copper - Q2 2025 copper production was 22.9 million tons, a 15% increase year-on-year and a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter [9][27] - Significant contributions from the Kennecott and Oyu Tolgoi mines were noted, with Oyu Tolgoi achieving record production levels [10][11] 5. Lithium - Q2 2025 lithium carbonate equivalent production was 12,000 tons, a 29% decrease quarter-on-quarter due to maintenance at the Mt Cattlin project [12][14] 6. Iron Ore - Q2 2025 iron ore production was 83.7 million tons, a 5% increase year-on-year and a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking the highest second-quarter production since 2018 [15][27] - The report indicates a strategic shift in product specifications for Pilbara blends [15] 7. Financial Updates - Exploration and evaluation expenditures for 2025 were reported at $334 million, down from $487 million in 2024, with a significant portion allocated to copper and lithium [18] - Net debt increased by approximately $7.6 billion due to the acquisition of Arcadium [19] - Operating capital saw a cash outflow of about $600 million in the first half of 2025 [20]

7 月 16 日，股市主线依然不算明朗，结构性行情是市场博弈重点；债市开始对过去几日的利多钝化，重新 跟随股市波动；商品市场的"反内卷"叙事渐进尾声，板块间出现分化。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘扛住了午后的下跌压力，尾盘重新拉升，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别下 跌 0.03%、0.30%、0.43%；机器人等板块带动小微盘表现亮眼，中证 2000、万得微盘股指上涨 0.64%、1.10%； H20 芯片解禁后，科技行情高开低走，科创 50 上涨 0.14%，恒生科技下跌 0.24%。债市，10 年、30 年国债收益 率上行 0.4bp、0.7bp 至 1.66%、1.87%，10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.05%、0.05%。 海外方面，15 日晚间美国劳工部发布 6 月通胀数据，CPI 同比增 2.7%，高于预期的 2.6%，较 5 月前值上升 0.3pct，特朗普政府加征关税的影响开始反映美国物价之中；核心 CPI 同比增 2.9%，与市场预期持平。数据发 布后，美元指数由 98.0 附近直线拉升至 98.7，30 年美债收益率上行至 5%之上。不过，16 日晚间美国 6 月 PPI 数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand retail revenue showed low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, while the Saucony brand achieved over 20% year-on-year growth [2][3] - The retail discount for Q2 2025 remained healthy at 70-75%, consistent with Q1 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance brand loyalty and retention in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q2 2025, the main brand's retail revenue experienced low single-digit growth year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgments - The main brand's retail revenue growth slowed from mid-single digits in Q1 2025 to low single digits in Q2 2025. The retail discount remained stable compared to previous quarters, indicating a healthy pricing strategy [3] - Saucony and another brand, Myle, benefited from their superior performance in professional running and outdoor segments, with Saucony's retail growth slowing to about 20% in Q2 2025, down from approximately 40% in Q1 2025 due to adjustments in e-commerce strategy [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue expanding its product matrix and open around 30 new Saucony stores throughout the year. The sale of the KP brand is anticipated to reduce financial drag and allow a focus on three main brands [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion. The estimated EPS for these years is 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 respectively, with PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [4][6]