Group 1 - Three food delivery platforms, Ele.me, Meituan, and JD, were interviewed by the market regulatory authority, emphasizing the need to build a win-win ecosystem for consumers, merchants, delivery riders, and platform companies [2][11] - Since July 5, the discount intensity and order volume on platforms have decreased, with Meituan reporting over 150 million daily orders on July 12, but the promotional efforts have weakened significantly by July 19 [3][12] Group 2 - The bidding prices for the six districts in Yiwu's global trade center have reached new highs, with over 19,000 merchants registered for the second round of bidding for baby products, skincare, and medical beauty products [4][20] - The winning bid prices for toy and skincare products ranged from 134,000 to 138,000 CNY per square meter, indicating a strong demand and competitive bidding environment [4][20] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% during the week [22][27] - The inflow of southbound funds decreased by 4.496 billion CNY compared to the previous week, indicating a shift in market sentiment [26] Group 4 - The restaurant industry is facing challenges, with companies like Quanjude predicting a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to weak market demand despite government policies to boost consumption [40] - The hot pot industry is experiencing increased competition, with brands like Xiaobai and Haidilao exploring innovative mechanisms to adapt to market changes [42] Group 5 - The hotel industry is witnessing a significant presence of Chinese companies in the global market, with 21 Chinese hotel groups making it to the top 50 list, reflecting the growing strength of Chinese hotel brands [53] - Jinjiang Hotels reported a projected decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the absence of non-recurring gains seen in the previous year [51][52] Group 6 - The talent market in mainland China is showing cautious optimism, with 60% of respondents expressing a positive outlook, particularly in the electronics and materials sectors [55] - The report highlights the impact of AI on workplace dynamics, with 76% of respondents noting efficiency improvements due to AI integration [55] Group 7 - The IPO of companies like United Power is indicative of the rising trend of family-run businesses in China, with significant growth in revenue and net profit projected [58] - The resumption of exports for domestic GPUs marks a critical moment for the industry, with local manufacturers achieving substantial market validation [59][60]

Market Review - The recent week saw a strong performance in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.5% and the A-share ChiNext Index increasing by 3.17%. The US stock market also showed strength, with the Nasdaq Index up by 1.5%. Key sectors in the A-share market included AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and military industry, while the banking sector experienced a pullback from its highs, leading to a relative weakness in dividend stocks. The market's risk appetite has increased, with A-share financing balances rising for four consecutive weeks, returning to levels not seen since April of this year [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - A new round of market uptrend is anticipated, with three main investment lines suggested: 1) High-growth new technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, military industry, marine economy, and solid-state batteries; 2) Resource sectors benefiting from price increases, including minor metals and industrial metals; 3) Stable dividend assets, which will remain an important direction for medium to long-term capital allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. Trade Relations - Recent developments in Sino-US trade have shown a continued easing in the technology trade sector, with positive expectations for negotiations. The A-share AI computing power sector saw significant gains, partly due to Nvidia's founder announcing the lifting of sales restrictions on the H20 chip to China. Additionally, the performance forecast of leading optical module companies exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of the industry chain. The postponement of the "reciprocal tariffs" deadline from July 9 to August 1 has not led to significant fluctuations in global risk appetite [3]. Economic Overview - The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target has eased, with expectations that the upcoming Politburo meeting will focus on "structural adjustments" and strengthening policy reserves. In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in real terms, surpassing the annual target. However, the GDP deflator index has shown a widening decline, recording negative values for nine consecutive quarters. Exports and consumption have remained strong, with exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year in dollar terms, while retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy. However, real estate continues to be a major drag on growth [3]. Sector Performance - As of July 19, 2025, 1,547 A-share companies had disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a forecast rate of 28.6% and a positive forecast rate (including increases, slight increases, continued profits, and turnaround) reaching 44%. High-prosperity sectors include brokerage firms, certain resource sectors, and technology growth areas. Among resource sectors, precious metals and rare earths are expected to see high growth rates, while in the growth sector, AI hardware, military industry, gaming, and wind power are leading in net profit forecasts. Conversely, the real estate chain, coal mining, and liquor industries have lower positive forecast rates [3]. Capital Flow - With the improvement in profit-making effects, the influx of incremental capital into the stock market has shown a positive feedback effect. Private equity funds have been actively increasing their positions, with the stock private equity position index rising significantly to 77.36% as of July 4, 2025, an increase of 2.07% from the previous week. Additionally, A-share financing balances have risen for four consecutive weeks, with net purchases of financing funds exceeding 90 billion yuan from June 23 to July 17, bringing the financing balance back to the highest level since April of this year. The financing funds have been directed towards technology growth sectors, with the leading industries in financing purchases being electronics, computers, and power equipment [3].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The establishment of China Yajiang Group marks the orderly advancement of major engineering projects, with significant investment opportunities in geotechnical engineering and civil explosives [1][8] - The demand for civil explosives is expected to concentrate further, benefiting companies like Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology [1] - The traditional industry is experiencing a "anti-involution" trend, with recommendations for cement leaders such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [1][9] - Domestic substitution is gaining momentum, with recommendations for companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co., which are expected to benefit from tariff relief and increased shipping demand [1][10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - In the 29th week, new housing and second-hand housing market transaction volumes showed a downward trend, with new housing transaction area in 30 major cities down by 25% year-on-year [2][23] - The average price of cement in the national market is 356 RMB/ton, continuing to decline with a drop of 1% [3][27] 2. Investment Opportunities - Major water conservancy and hydropower projects are expected to generate substantial demand for engineering, building materials, and civil explosives, with total investment in the Yarlung Hydropower Project estimated at approximately 1.2 trillion RMB [8] - The civil explosives industry is undergoing consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aiming to reduce the number of production enterprises to 50 by 2025 [8] 3. Cement Industry Analysis - Cement prices are under downward pressure, particularly in East and Southwest China, with average shipment rates around 43.2% [3][27] - The cement market is expected to continue experiencing price fluctuations due to weak overall demand and high inventory levels [27][54] 4. Recommendations - Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and companies in the waterproofing sector like Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun Co. [1][9] - For domestic substitution, companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co. are highlighted for their growth potential in the ship coating sector [1][10]

[Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：牛市氛围下，资金愈发勇敢 [Table_Title] 稳扎稳打 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 7 月 14-18 日，类权益市场继续走强。截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5499.27，较 7 月 11 日上涨 1.40%；中 证转债同期上涨 0.67%，各价位估值均走扩。 资金参与情绪积极，融资余额自 6 月底以来回升，逐步接近 3 月内高点。随着市场风险偏好的提高，高波资产受到青睐。 不过，资金对此也有筛选，业绩预增是主要线索。7 月以来， 万得预增指数显著跑赢业绩预亏指数和万得全 A。 ► 海外线索："解雇鲍威尔"担忧升温 美国零售数据超预期，对美股形成支撑。同时，"解雇鲍威 尔"担忧一度升温，市场担忧继任美联储主席听命于美国总 统，导致美元明显调整。整体来看，"乱纪元"的叙事并未 改变，在关税的基础上，近期加入了"解雇鲍威尔"，美联储 独立性受质疑，发达经济体债务可持续的担忧再度显现。继 续关注关税谈判进展，尤其是日本、欧洲的谈判进展。 ► 策略：政策预期为矛，安全边际为盾 指数高位&隐含波动率回落至低位，指向我们维 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views & Investment Suggestions - The recovery of H20 chip sales to China signals positive developments in US-China relations, with the approval of H20 chip sales and the introduction of RTX Pro GPU designed for the Chinese market by Nvidia's CEO [2][24] - The chip ban lift is seen as a pragmatic breakthrough in US-China technological cooperation, alleviating domestic computing power bottlenecks and reinforcing the effectiveness of the Geneva framework [2][24] - The regulatory emphasis on rational competition among major food delivery platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com aims to curb irrational subsidies and promote a healthy, sustainable development of the food service industry [2][24] - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding trade negotiations and continues to favor leading Chinese technology firms, suggesting that companies with foundational technology capabilities will gradually demonstrate their long-term investment value [3][25] Market Overview - During the week of July 14-18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 3.17% [1][11] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 7.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Index rose by 2.84%, with the media sector lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.55 percentage points [1][11] - The SW Media Index fell by 2.24%, ranking last among 31 industries in terms of performance [1][11] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "The Lychee of Chang'an" with 121.17 million yuan (21.4% market share), "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Temple" with 76.42 million yuan (13.5%), and "The Legend of Hei 2" with 65.84 million yuan (11.6%) [27][28] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Delta Force," and "Peacekeeper Elite," while the top three Android games were "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "My Leisure Time" [30][31] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Morning Snow Record" (82.5), "Splendid Blossoms" (81.4), and "Book Scroll Dream" (81.1) [32][33] Variety and Animation - The top variety show was "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 80.5, followed by "Comedy King Stand-up Season 2" and "New Rap 2025" [34] - The top three animated shows were "Cang Yuan Tu" (352.3), "Happy Hammer" (259.9), and "Xian Ni" (232.7) [36]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a strong expectation for stock performance relative to the market index over the next six months [62]. Core Insights - The AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) and unmanned forklift industry is approaching a technological inflection point, with anticipated demand growth. Beneficiaries include companies like Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, Noli Forklift, Zhongli Group, and Lanjian Intelligent [5][62]. - The AGV market in China is projected to reach 22.1 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of unmanned forklifts is expected to increase significantly as technology advances [5][44]. Summary by Sections What is an Unmanned Forklift? - Unmanned forklifts are a branch of AGVs, which are battery-powered vehicles equipped with navigation modules that can autonomously transport goods [3][11]. Core Technologies of AGVs and Unmanned Forklifts - The core technologies include positioning and navigation, perception, control systems, and robot scheduling systems. The development of AI models is expected to enhance the perception capabilities of AGVs, allowing for more autonomous operations [4][22][30][34]. Market Size - The global AGV market was approximately $4.75 billion in 2022, with a projected growth to 22.1 billion yuan in China by 2024. The domestic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2022 to 2024 [5][44][49]. Competitive Landscape - The AGV industry in China has seen the emergence of various players, categorized into three main types: specialized AGV manufacturers, traditional forklift manufacturers, and new entrants. The competitive landscape remains uncertain with many participants [5][59].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The global commercial projection market is currently subdued due to macroeconomic factors and competition from alternatives like conference flat panels and TVs. However, the introduction of a new pure laser hybrid solution by the company XGIMI is expected to leverage its technological advantages from the consumer market to commercial applications [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the global commercial projection market saw a penetration rate of laser light sources reach 31.5%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing preference for laser technology over traditional LED and bulb sources [10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: XGIMI Enters Commercial Projection Market - XGIMI announced its entry into the commercial projection market with a new pure laser hybrid solution at a technology conference in Chengdu [9] - The global commercial projection market faced a decline, with Q1 2025 shipments totaling 57.7 million units, down 13.9% year-on-year, while the overall projection market saw a slight increase of 2.2% [9][10] 2. Key Company Announcements - Huabao New Energy reported a significant increase in outdoor power sales in the Americas, with a 173% year-on-year growth in volume and a 106% increase in sales revenue [11] - Juxing Technology plans to acquire an 18.47% stake in Hangzhou Micro-Nano Technology for 45.4 million RMB, which will make Micro-Nano a subsidiary with projected revenues of 146 million RMB in 2024 [11] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - As of July 18, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 0.3% week-on-week, while aluminum prices remained stable [16] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index decreased by 0.77% week-on-week, with specific routes showing varied changes [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - From January to June 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in construction and new starts [27]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the rare earth materials industry, particularly focusing on MP Materials and its strategic partnerships, indicating a favorable investment environment [13]. Core Insights - MP Materials has established a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense, which includes significant investments and commitments for domestic manufacturing of rare earth magnets [11][51]. - The company has signed a long-term supply agreement with Apple, valued at $500 million, to produce magnets using recycled rare earth materials [11][53]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for rare earth elements and the strategic importance of domestic production in the U.S. due to geopolitical factors [13]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - Mountain Pass was the world's leading rare earth supplier until 1986 when China surpassed U.S. production [4][20]. - Molycorp, the previous owner, faced multiple operational challenges leading to bankruptcy in 2015, after which MP Materials took over [7][39]. Recent Developments - MP Materials has successfully ramped up production, achieving a rare earth oxide (REO) output of 45,455 tons in 2024, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [10][41]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity to 60,000 tons of REO through strategic investments over the next three years [41]. Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense includes plans for a new magnet manufacturing facility, "10X," expected to be operational by 2028, enhancing domestic supply capabilities [11][51]. - The agreement with Apple involves the development of a recycling facility to produce rare earth elements from industrial and consumer waste [11][53]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that MP Materials will play a crucial role in the U.S. rare earth supply chain, especially with the expected increase in demand from defense and technology sectors [13]. - The establishment of the "10X" facility and the ongoing expansion of the Independence Facility are expected to significantly boost production capabilities [11][52].

Group 1: Market Overview - During the tax period from July 14-18, liquidity tightened significantly, with overnight rates jumping approximately 10 basis points on the first day of the tax period, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% for R001 and DR001 respectively[1] - The central bank increased reverse repo operations, with daily net injections exceeding 300 billion, leading to a gradual recovery in market sentiment and a return of overnight rates below 1.5%[1] - By July 18, overnight rates settled at 1.49% and 1.46% for R001 and DR001, while 7-day rates approached 1.50%[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance suggests that liquidity is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, with overnight rates expected to return to around 1.4% and 7-day rates fluctuating around 1.50%[2] - A total of over 20 trillion yuan in public market maturities is expected next week, including 17,268 billion yuan in reverse repos and 2,000 billion yuan in MLF maturities[2] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of certificates of deposit maturing, with a total of 10,699 billion yuan, but the impact on liquidity is expected to be limited due to manageable bank liabilities[2] Group 3: Public Market and Government Bonds - From July 14-18, the central bank's net injection in the public market was 12,011 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 13,011 billion yuan[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to decrease to 2,399 billion yuan for the week of July 21-25, with a notable increase in local government bond payments[5] - The issuance of government bonds is set to rise significantly, with planned issuance of 7,508 billion yuan, including 3,750 billion yuan in national bonds and 3,758 billion yuan in local bonds[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.62%, reflecting a 1 basis point increase from the previous week[6] - The pressure from maturing certificates of deposit is expected to rise, with 10,699 billion yuan maturing in the week of July 21-25, marking a relative high for the year[6] - The overall market for certificates of deposit is showing signs of tightening, with a decrease in the proportion of longer-term issuances[6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The real - estate market shows a mixed performance in July 2025. Both second - hand and new home sales have different trends in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes, with significant variations among different city tiers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Second - hand Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities increased by 2% month - on - month after two consecutive weeks of decline, but decreased by 3% year - on - year. From July 1 - 17, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 5%, slightly larger than the 3% decline in June [1]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area increased by 11% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 17% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year [2]. New Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the new housing transaction area in 38 cities decreased by 6% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 20% from July 1 - 17, weaker than previous months [3]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 1% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area increased by 14% month - on - month but decreased by 10% year - on - year [3][4]. Key City Observation - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of July 11 - 17, first - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year; new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. There were significant differences among Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [26]. - **Other Key Cities**: In Hangzhou, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% week - on - week, while new housing transaction area decreased by 44%. In Chengdu, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 5% week - on - week, and new housing transaction area decreased by 11% [28]. Housing Price Observation In the week of July 7 - 13, the second - hand housing listing prices in Shanghai increased by 0.46% month - on - month, while those in Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.29% and 0.77% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the second - hand housing listing prices in all three cities decreased [55].