Economic Growth - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, exceeding the target of 5%[1] - Q2 GDP growth is 5.2%, slightly below Q1 and Q4 of the previous year, which were both 5.4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased from -0.8% in Q1 to -1.3% in Q2, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance[1] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports contributed nearly 40% to the increase in industrial added value, with a 4.0% growth in export delivery value in June[2] - The industrial sales rate in June was 94.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[1] Retail Sector - Retail growth slowed to 4.8% in June, primarily due to holiday misalignment and a decline in dining revenue[3] - The dining revenue growth rate in June was only 0.9%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from May, negatively impacting overall retail[4] - National subsidies for retail showed a reduced effect, contributing 1.5 percentage points to retail growth, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Behavior - The proportion of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income in Q2 was 68.6%, lower than 2019 levels by 1.9 percentage points[5] - Urban consumption rates were 63.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2019, while rural consumption rates were 89.2%, up 1.6 percentage points[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, with a 6.6% increase excluding real estate investment[7] - In June, fixed asset investment fell to -0.1% year-on-year, with significant slowdowns in infrastructure and manufacturing investments[7] - The issuance of local special bonds increased in June, reaching 5270.9 billion yuan, but infrastructure investment growth continued to slow[7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in June showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in sales value, marking the first drop below -10% since October of the previous year[8] - New residential prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the lowest since November of the previous year[8] - Expectations for new real estate policies may arise in July-August, focusing on mortgage rate reductions and potential easing of purchase restrictions[8] Policy Outlook - The necessity for additional economic stimulus may decrease due to better-than-expected growth, with potential delays in new policies until external demand weakens significantly[9] - The government may prioritize targeted financial tools and mortgage rate adjustments in response to economic data in July-August[9] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, equity markets initially dipped but later rebounded, indicating resilience in market sentiment[10] - The bond market showed increased optimism, with yields declining as the economic growth trend demonstrated resilience against dual pressures of tariffs and weak demand[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 operational data shows that the main brand achieved low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands recorded mid to high single-digit growth [2][3] - The report anticipates high single-digit growth for the main brand and mid single-digit growth for FILA in 2025, with KOLON and DESCENTE expected to grow by 30% [4] - The report highlights the potential for KOLON and DESCENTE to enhance their market share and product competitiveness due to favorable outdoor market conditions [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q2 2025, the main brand, FILA, and other brands recorded low single-digit, mid single-digit, and 50-55% growth respectively [2] - For H1 2025, retail sales for Anta, FILA, and other brands showed mid single-digit, high single-digit, and 60-65% growth year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgment - The main brand's growth in Q2 2025 slowed compared to Q1 2025 and Q2 2024, attributed to a slowdown in both online and offline sales [3] - FILA's growth in Q2 2025 was driven by improvements in children's and trendy brands, although it showed a slight slowdown compared to Q1 2025 [3] - Other brands like DESCENTE, KOLON, and MAIA experienced 50-55% growth in Q2 2025, which is a decrease from Q1 2025 but an improvement from Q2 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenue forecasts of 770 billion, 859 billion, and 960 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit estimates of 138.74 billion, 159.07 billion, and 178.76 billion for the same years [4] - The report maintains EPS forecasts of 4.94, 5.67, and 6.37 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [4]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by 41,993 billion yuan, up 9,008 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 37,051 billion yuan[1] - New loans from financial institutions reached 22,400 billion yuan in June, an increase of 1,100 billion yuan year-on-year, also surpassing the market forecast of 18,447 billion yuan[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in June was 1.40 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the market consensus of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan[3] Group 2: Loan Demand Analysis - New short-term loans for enterprises hit a record high of 11,600 billion yuan in June, increasing by 4,900 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans were relatively modest at 10,100 billion yuan, up only 400 billion yuan[4] - The total corporate financing demand indicator for June was 18,800 billion yuan, which, despite a year-on-year increase of 1,588 billion yuan, remains below the 24,900 billion yuan level of the same period in 2022-2023[5] - For households, new short-term and medium-long-term loans were 2,621 billion yuan and 3,353 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of only 150 billion yuan and 151 billion yuan, indicating weak consumer demand[6] Group 3: Deposit and Liquidity Trends - New deposits in June 2025 rose to 32,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,500 billion yuan, although still below levels seen in 2021-2023[7] - The proportion of demand deposits in new deposits reached 83% for households and 95% for enterprises, indicating a shift towards liquidity[8] - M1 growth rebounded to 4.6% in June, driven by increases in demand deposits from both enterprises and households, each contributing nearly 1 trillion yuan[9] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The internal demand logic remains unchanged, with government departments continuing to leverage, but the transmission of demand to enterprises and households is not smooth[10] - The strong performance of credit in June may lead to weaker data in July, as historically, July figures have been significantly below expectations[11] - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in domestic policies and liquidity conditions, which could impact market stability[12]

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.07% to 4017.67 [1][2] - The bond market showed a weak trend with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.88% [2][7] Overseas Market Influences - The overseas market was affected by tariff policies, with copper prices under pressure due to a 30% tariff announced by the US on the EU and Mexico, while oil prices rose approximately 1.5% due to positive signals from OPEC+ regarding strong demand in Q3 [3] Domestic Commodity Trends - The "anti-involution" policy led to a cooling in trading, with black commodities continuing to rise but at a reduced rate. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 1.15% and 1.09% respectively, while iron ore and rebar saw smaller gains between 0.1% and 0.3% [4] - The photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices increasing by 0.81% and 3.27% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank increased reverse repos to support liquidity, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan on a single day, although funding rates continued to rise due to the approaching tax period [5][6] - The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout repo operation indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite the tightening conditions [6] Equity Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market rose by 0.17% with a trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited clearer market narratives [8] - Bank stocks exhibited volatility, with potential fluctuations expected around upcoming equity registration dates [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.26% and 0.67% respectively, with significant inflows into stocks like Meituan and Alibaba, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q2 2025, with retail sales for the main brand and children's clothing both increasing by approximately 10%, and e-commerce sales growing by about 20% year-on-year [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in growth rates compared to Q1 2025, the company demonstrated robust online operational capabilities, achieving a 20% growth in e-commerce sales against a high base from the previous year [3] - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, focusing on technology-driven upgrades and targeting diverse market demands, with new launches in running, basketball, and lifestyle segments [4] - Brand building efforts include sponsorship of major events and collaborations with sports personalities, enhancing brand visibility and consumer engagement [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 11.62 billion, 13.35 billion, and 15.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.39 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.87 billion yuan for the same years [7][9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.67, 0.79, and 0.91 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 6.7, 5.7, and 5.0 [7][9] Product and Brand Strategy - The company is enhancing its product innovation strategy by launching new products across various categories, including running shoes and basketball shoes, aimed at meeting the needs of different consumer segments [4][6] - The company has opened 49 new premium stores as of June 2025, with plans for continued expansion, which is expected to drive overall sales growth [6][7] Market Positioning - The company is benefiting from a trend of consumer downgrading, with strong sales performance in its running shoe segment and increased brand recognition through strategic endorsements [6][7]

Group 1 - The "takeaway war" has restarted, leading to a new peak in order volume, with Meituan reporting 150 million instant retail orders, and rider income increasing by 111% during weekends [1][9][11] - The competition among platforms like Meituan, JD, and Taobao has resulted in historical highs in order volumes, indicating a significant increase in consumer spending driven by subsidies [1][9][10] - The competition is seen as a catalyst for long-term benefits, provided that regulatory measures are in place to prevent malicious competition and ensure fair practices [1][13] Group 2 - The outbound tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with average prices for outbound travel products decreasing by approximately 5% compared to last year, and significant increases in bookings for overseas train tickets and hotel packages [2][15] - The inbound tourism sector is also seeing growth, with over 640,000 people entering through Beijing ports in the first ten days of July, marking a 22.1% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors [2][14] - Popular destinations for outbound travel include Europe, with a 76% increase in travelers to Europe, particularly to Northern Europe and the UK [2][17] Group 3 - The summer economy is thriving, with long-distance travel accounting for over 60% of tourism, and domestic flight bookings exceeding 25.61 million during the summer travel period [3][21] - The railway sector anticipates sending 953 million passengers during the summer, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with additional tourist trains being introduced to meet demand [3][21] - The self-driving tourism in Xinjiang is booming, supported by improved transportation infrastructure, with over 30,000 vehicles using the newly opened Ahe Highway [4][19] Group 4 - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption patterns, particularly in the food and beverage sector, with a notable increase in night-time dining and the popularity of takeaway services [38][39] - The travel and hospitality sectors are adapting to changing consumer preferences, with platforms like Tujia launching long-term rental services to cater to the growing demand for travel stays [48][49] - The hotel industry is expanding, with new openings such as the Marriott Hotel in Changsha, which aims to enhance local tourism experiences [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the allocation demand for credit bonds from funds, other product categories, and insurance has increased. Credit spreads have mostly narrowed or remained flat due to strong demand, with 1Y varieties showing strong resistance to decline and lower-rated bonds performing better than higher-rated ones [1][10][11]. - Currently, both credit bond coupons and credit spreads are at low levels, and the market trend is more dependent on institutional allocation demand. It is necessary to closely monitor institutional behavior, buying sentiment, and the potential compression space of credit spreads [1][12]. - Overall, the supply - demand pattern in July is favorable for credit bonds, and there is still a small amount of compression space for credit spreads. Specific strategies include focusing on short - to medium - duration bonds with credit rating sinking, and high - grade 10Y bonds have relatively large potential compression space for credit spreads [3][22]. - In the bank capital bond market, although the spread protection is thin, there is still compression space. Long - duration bonds of large banks and 2 - 3 year bonds of small and medium - sized banks are recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Credit Bond Market Overview - From July 1 - 11, funds' net purchase of credit bonds reached 88.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 39.1 billion yuan. Other product categories and insurance had net purchases of 31.3 billion and 15.2 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7.8 billion and 5 billion yuan [1][11]. - From July 7 - 11, with the convergence of funds and the rotation of negative factors, the bond market fluctuated upwards. Credit bonds, due to strong allocation demand, saw most credit spreads narrow or remain flat [10]. 3.2. Factors Affecting Credit Bond Market 3.2.1. Institutional Behavior - Fund net trading volume of credit bonds is a sensitive indicator related to credit spread trends. Maintaining a daily net purchase of over 500 million yuan helps keep credit spreads low. From July 7 - 10, the rolling 5 - day net purchase was 1 - 1.4 billion yuan, but it dropped to 740 million yuan on the 11th, and was below 500 million yuan on the 10th and 11th [2][12]. 3.2.2. Buying Sentiment - The TKN成交占比 is used to measure buying sentiment. A stable TKN成交占比 above 75% indicates good buying sentiment. From July 7 - 11, as yields rose, the TKN成交占比 declined, with three days below 70%, but the rolling 5 - day average was around 70% [2][16]. 3.2.3. Potential Compression Space of Credit Spreads - By observing the position of credit spreads relative to the mean - 2 times the standard deviation, it is found that currently, each variety still has a small amount of compression space, with 10Y varieties having relatively large potential [3][22]. 3.3. Specific Bond Types Analysis 3.3.1. Urban Investment Bonds - From July 1 - 13, urban investment bonds had a net financing of 28.8 billion yuan. The primary market issuance sentiment was good, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times remaining at 61%. The issuance rate of long - term bonds decreased significantly, with the 10 - year average dropping to 2.14% [30][32]. - In the secondary market, short - term bonds were resistant to decline, while the yields of 3 - 10Y bonds increased. The trading activity decreased, and Shenzhen Metro had many high - valuation transactions [35][38]. 3.3.2. Industrial Bonds - From July 1 - 13, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened slightly, and the proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly. The buying sentiment in the secondary market weakened, and the trading duration increased [40][42]. 3.3.3. Bank Capital Bonds - From July 7 - 13, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, yields generally rose, spreads showed differentiation, and low - grade, short - duration bonds performed better. Currently, credit spreads are at relatively low levels, but there is still compression space [45][46]. 3.3.4. TLAC Bonds - By comparing the yields of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds with TLAC bonds, the spreads are analyzed. As of July 11, 2025, the 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y spreads were 3.1bp, 3.8bp, and 1.4bp respectively, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds are more cost - effective [53]. 3.3.5. Commercial Financial Bonds - Since 2021, the valuation of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds has generally followed the trend of interest - rate bonds, with a stable spread center. As of July 11, the credit spread was 14bp, at a relatively low level [57].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The passing of the US "GENIUS Act" and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" marks a significant milestone in the recognition of stablecoins, potentially transforming virtual assets into key components of financial infrastructure [2][19] - Stablecoins are expected to bridge the gap between digital finance and traditional finance, enhancing their acceptance by regulatory bodies due to their stable value and payment attributes [2][12] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $269 billion as of July 12, 2025, with over 90% being USD-pegged stablecoins [17] Regulatory Framework - The US "GENIUS Act" requires stablecoin issuers to hold 1:1 cash or treasury reserves and grants the Federal Reserve emergency stop authority to prevent systemic risks [20] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" establishes a licensing system for stablecoin issuers, mandating sufficient reserves and compliance with anti-money laundering regulations [22][23] - The European Union's MiCA regulation, effective from December 30, 2024, also aims to regulate stablecoins, focusing on consumer protection and market integrity [19][21] Stablecoin Characteristics - Stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies, balancing openness and stability, unlike Bitcoin which is highly volatile [3][12] - They are designed to function as a payment tool, with lower transaction costs and faster settlement times compared to traditional payment systems [17][23] - The stablecoin ecosystem includes issuers, exchanges, and application scenarios, supported by reserve banks and compliance service providers [25][26] Market Opportunities - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" is expected to boost the development of stablecoin issuance, trading, and cross-border payments in Hong Kong, positioning it as a global virtual asset hub [8][23] - Companies like ZA Bank are poised to benefit from the stablecoin ecosystem by providing reserve banking services [26][28] - The regulatory environment in Hong Kong is conducive for local securities firms to expand their services into the virtual asset space, creating new growth opportunities [31][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant surge in overseas AI inference demand, which is expected to drive a positive feedback loop in model iteration, leading to a potential systematic profit upgrade due to market size and capacity reassessment [1][5][6] - The report indicates that the AI inference demand is in its early growth phase, with a notable increase in token volume, which will sustain high capital expenditure (Capex) in AI applications [1][6] - The report emphasizes that the optical module industry, as a foundational component for computing clusters, still possesses high growth potential in the medium to long term [1][6] Group 2 - The report recommends several beneficiaries within the computing power supply chain, including high-speed optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, with specific companies such as NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication identified as key players [2][7] - It also lists additional beneficiaries in the computing equipment and data center sectors, recommending companies like China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom, among others [2][9] - The report suggests that the optical network upgrade and edge computing sectors present further investment opportunities, with companies like Guangxun Technology and Huagong Technology highlighted as beneficiaries [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Meituan's instant retail daily order volume reached 150 million, with significant growth in rider income. On July 12, the daily order volume surpassed 150 million, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes. Rider daily income increased by 111% year-on-year, with high-frequency riders earning an average of 9,793 yuan per month [2][20]. - The "reciprocal tariff" has been postponed until August 1, with the EU potentially facing a 30% tariff. This unilateral action may increase short-term trade volatility between the US and other countries, but there remains cautious optimism regarding the substantive implementation of existing trade agreements [2][20]. - The report maintains a cautious outlook on trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of AI and domestic consumption in the current global macroeconomic context. It suggests focusing on Chinese tech leaders and highlights potential investment opportunities in Hong Kong internet leaders, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors [3][21]. Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with 107.08 million yuan (26.3% market share), "Malice" with 73.49 million yuan (18.0%), and "F1: Speeding" with 68.55 million yuan (16.8%) [22][24]. Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force." The top three Android games are "Douluo Dalu: Soul Hunting World," "Sausage Party," and "Heartbeat Town" [23][25]. TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "In the Name of Law" (84.1), "Book of Dreams" (83.4), and "Splendid Blossoms" (82) [26][27]. Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Running Man Season 9" with a broadcast index of 79.3, followed by "Singer 2025" and "New Rap 2025" [28][30]. The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu" with a viewership index of 369.3, followed by "Happy Hammer" and "Xian Ni" [29][31].