Market Review - Since October, global risk events have increased, including the potential U.S. government shutdown, heightened political uncertainty in Japan, and escalating China-U.S. trade tensions, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. Precious metals have strengthened while oil prices have declined, with Hong Kong stocks experiencing a greater drop than A-shares and U.S. stocks due to the strong U.S. dollar and international capital flow impacts. A-shares have shown characteristics of risk-averse trading, evidenced by a decrease in trading volume, with daily turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, and a style shift where previously strong sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market have seen significant adjustments while defensive dividend indices have risen [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of cherishing quality assets, predicting a gradual recovery in the market starting in late October. Recent signals from U.S. trade representatives indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with expectations for some consensus to be reached during upcoming economic discussions and the APEC summit. This contrasts with the previous widespread declines in April, as the current trade situation reflects a shift in capital flows rather than a broad market downturn. Overall, financing and ETF funds continue to see net inflows, suggesting that micro liquidity in the stock market remains relatively abundant. The construction of a "stabilizing mechanism" in the capital market and improvements in investor return systems are highlighted as key features of this market cycle, supporting the notion of a sustained "slow bull" market in A-shares, which are currently viewed as not overly expensive [2][3]. Key Focus Areas 1. The U.S. government has released signals indicating a potential easing of trade tensions, with discussions between Chinese and U.S. trade leaders suggesting a possible return to "TACO" trading dynamics. This could lead to a recovery in capital market risk appetite [2]. 2. Positive domestic and international factors are expected to support the market, with the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting likely to address various themes such as new productivity, green development, and external openness, potentially catalyzing investment opportunities. Additionally, a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a stable U.S. dollar index are anticipated to provide further support [3]. 3. The recent market style shift, characterized by a decline in tech-heavy indices and a rise in defensive dividend stocks, reflects a defensive positioning by investors amid reduced trading volumes. The report attributes the tech sector's adjustment to several factors, including increased trading congestion and profit-taking amid rising risk aversion due to trade tensions [4][5]. Industry Configuration - The report suggests that the current valuation fluctuations in the tech sector do not indicate a permanent style shift. Upcoming events, including the Central Committee meeting and the release of quarterly reports, are expected to boost market sentiment and catalyze thematic trading. The report notes that growth sectors like TMT continue to show relative performance advantages, while cyclical sectors lack fundamental support due to ongoing negative PPI trends. The report anticipates that once market structures stabilize, the focus will likely return to growth and technology investments, with a recommendation to pay attention to "mergers and acquisitions" as a theme [5][6].

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced increased volatility this week, with most markets showing fluctuations. The US stock market rebounded after a significant drop last week, but faced volatility due to banking issues and tariff policy uncertainties, leading to a rise in the VIX index [1][2] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 37.1, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 51.5, and the Nasdaq Index at 42.9, indicating that US tech stocks remain historically overvalued [1][2] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio is at 39.79, close to the 40 high range, suggesting continued pressure for adjustment in the US market due to economic fundamentals and tariff uncertainties [1][2] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw gains this week, with increases of 1.7%, 2.14%, and 1.56% respectively [2][12] - Within the S&P 500, the communications sector had the highest increase at 3.64%, while the financial sector had the smallest gain at 0.02% [12][16] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both declined, with drops of 3.97% and 3.7% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 7.98% [24][30] - The utilities sector was the only sector to show a gain, increasing by 1.38%, while the information technology sector saw the largest decline at 8.21% [28][30] Economic Data - In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.2%, up from the previous 2% [2][46] - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for October 2025 was -31.8, lower than the previous -28.8, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [40][46] - Japan's industrial production index year-on-year growth rate for October 2025 was -1.64%, down from -0.37% previously [42][46]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising credit crisis concerns have led to expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in sustained highs for gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 5.76% to $4,267.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 6.55% to $50.63 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw significant increases of 10.53% to 999.80 yuan per gram and 12,249.00 yuan per kilogram, respectively [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold-silver ratio fell by 0.74% to 84.30. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 966,285.71 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 1,452,401.60 ounces [1][30]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, with significant economic impacts estimated at a weekly loss of $15 billion. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices [3][45][46]. - The silver market is experiencing extreme tightness, leading to a historical "short squeeze" with leasing rates exceeding 35%. Global silver shortages are projected to reach approximately 3,660 tons in 2025, with industrial demand expected to grow due to AI-driven applications [7][47]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 2.25% to $10,607.00 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.18% to $2,778.50 per ton. Zinc and lead prices, however, saw declines [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to production disruptions in major mines, with a projected reduction of 200,000 tons in Q4 2025. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of copper prices, with expectations of continued U.S. dollar depreciation [10][11][21]. - Aluminum demand remains stable, with production expected to increase due to new projects. The profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are improving as raw material costs decline [12][22]. Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have decreased by 1.43% to 17,920 yuan per ton, while molybdenum prices rose by 3.28% to 283,500 yuan per ton due to increased demand from steelmaking [17][18]. - The market for vanadium remains under pressure, with prices declining as steel demand has not met expectations [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold and silver stocks due to their expected performance in the current economic climate. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [6][20][47].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the property market showed some resilience in terms of week - on - week transaction volume, with the second - hand housing market performing better than the new housing market. However, due to the high base formed by the "924" housing policies in 2024, both new and second - hand housing transactions had negative year - on - year growth [1]. - The real estate industry is accelerating the transformation from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement", and structural differentiation between and within cities may become the norm in the future [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Transaction Volume Analysis - **Week - on - Week Transaction Volume**: 15 key cities' second - hand housing transaction area reached 2.15 million square meters, a 6% week - on - week increase, while 38 key cities' new housing transaction area was 2.74 million square meters, a 23% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Year - on - Year Transaction Volume**: Affected by the high base in 2024, the year - on - year growth rate of second - hand housing transactions turned negative for the first time after seven consecutive weeks of positive growth, with a decline of 13%, and new housing transactions decreased by 24% for the third consecutive week. Compared with the same period in 2023, second - hand housing transactions maintained high - level activity with an 8% increase, while new housing transactions still declined by 18% [2]. - **By City Tier**: In the second - hand housing market, first - tier cities cooled down, with a 5% week - on - week decline and a 19% year - on - year decrease. Second - tier cities performed well, with a 25% week - on - week increase and an 8% year - on - year decrease. Third - tier cities continued to face pressure, with 4% and 6% week - on - week and year - on - year decreases respectively. In the new housing market, transactions in all city tiers generally declined, with second - tier cities showing some structural resilience with an 11% year - on - year increase despite a 15% week - on - week decline [3]. Key City Observations - **First - Tier Cities**: In the second - hand housing market, Beijing decreased by 31% week - on - week, while Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 7% and 49% respectively. In the new housing market, first - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 36% week - on - week, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou decreasing by 47%, 44%, 32%, and 12% respectively [27]. - **Other Key Cities**: Hangzhou's second - hand housing transaction area increased by 23% week - on - week, and new housing decreased by 57%. Chengdu's second - hand housing increased by 27% week - on - week, and new housing decreased by 18% [28]. Housing Price Observation - From October 6 - 12, the weekly listing prices of second - hand houses in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.18%, 0.41%, and 0.42% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the listing prices in these three cities still decreased, with declines of 2.9%, 9.3%, and 9.2% respectively [54]. Policy Analysis - The natural resources department issued the "Urban Stock Space Revitalization and Optimization Planning Guide", indicating that China's urban development has entered the "stock era". - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the real estate market will focus on "urban renewal", "good houses", and the "new real estate development model". The construction of "good houses" will compete with traditional second - hand houses, and the reform of the pre - sale system and strengthened fund supervision under the "new model" are expected to reshape the industry's development logic and restore market confidence [6].

Group 1: Liquidity and Interest Rates - The funding rates remain low, with R001 averaging around 1.35% and R007 around 1.47% during the week of October 13-17, 2025[1][12] - Despite nearly 2 trillion in open market maturities, liquidity achieved self-balancing due to central bank support and low government debt payment pressure[1][11] - The overnight rate is expected to continue fluctuating around OMO-5bp, with R007 likely to stay below 1.50%[2][17] Group 2: Open Market Operations - From October 20-24, the reverse repo maturity will be 789.1 billion, significantly lower than the average of 1.1 trillion since 2025[2][17] - The central bank net drained 581.9 billion in the week of October 13-17, with reverse repos maturing at 1.021 trillion[3][22] - The net reverse repo balance as of October 17 was 789.1 billion, down from 1.137 trillion on October 11[3][24] Group 3: Government Bonds and Payments - Government bond net payments for October 20-24 are projected at 158.4 billion, up from 140.2 billion the previous week[5][30] - The increase in net payments is primarily due to a rise in local government bond issuance, which increased by 177.6 billion[5][32] - The net issuance of treasury bonds decreased from 181.1 billion to 21.6 billion, influenced by a significant increase in maturity amounts[5][32] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is expected to remain manageable, with 616.7 billion maturing from October 20-24[6][38] - The weighted issuance rate for one-year CDs was 1.63%, a slight increase from the previous week[6][36] - The net financing from CDs turned positive at 234 billion, with total issuance at 727.6 billion during the week of October 13-17[6][41]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 2%-2.5%[10] - The unemployment rate in the US is currently at 4.3%, showing signs of concern in the labor market[15] - In Europe, economic stability is observed due to continuous interest rate cuts, but structural issues persist, particularly in Germany[4] - Japan's economy remains stable, with consumer confidence improving, but faces challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation[4] Asset Projections - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates[4] - The US dollar is projected to weaken due to divergent monetary policies among the US, Eurozone, and Japan[4] - Gold prices may face short-term correction pressure but have strong medium-term support due to fiscal debt and monetary easing[4] Fiscal Policy Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" fiscal plan is projected to increase the US federal deficit by approximately $2 trillion over five years and $3.4 trillion over ten years[19] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a future deficit rate of 6.8%, up from a baseline of 5.8% due to the fiscal plan[23] - High deficit levels have led to increased government debt and rising interest pressures, with the average deficit rate since FY 2025 being 6.8%[28]

A-shares Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 16.51, with a median of 13.48 and a maximum of 30.60[8] - The PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas is 25.31, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.21, while the ChiNext Index stands at 41.35[8] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.61, with a median of 10.28 and a maximum of 22.67[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher valuation with a current PE (TTM) of 22.13[63] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a PE (TTM) of 10.47, reflecting a lower valuation compared to other indices[63] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.34, with a median of 21.09 and a maximum of 41.99[82] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 42.87, indicating a high growth expectation[90] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a PE (TTM) of 31.27, reflecting a stable valuation compared to other indices[94] Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) while the technology sector shows a high PE, indicating sector-specific valuation disparities[22] - The financial sector, particularly banks and brokers, has a PB (LF) of 0.91, suggesting undervaluation compared to historical averages[101] - The consumer sector, including liquor and pharmaceuticals, shows varied PE levels, with liquor at 18.94 and pharmaceuticals at 38.08[32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in retail sales for Q3 2025, while the Saucony brand achieved over 20% year-on-year growth in retail sales [2][3] - The retail discount for Q3 2025 was maintained at a healthy level of 70-75%, consistent with Q2 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operational data showing low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand, with Saucony retail sales exceeding 20% year-on-year growth [2] Analysis and Judgments - Q3 2025 retail sales growth for the main brand was low single-digit, with the growth rate remaining flat compared to Q2 2025 [3] - The retail discount for Q3 2025 was stable at 70-75%, slightly down from 75% in Q3 2024 [3] - Saucony and Myle's brands benefited from their superior performance in professional running and outdoor tracks, with Saucony's retail growth exceeding 20% [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue expanding its product matrix and develop retro and commuting series to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The company, Aomeisen, specializes in intelligent manufacturing equipment, focusing on the research, design, production, and sales of smart production devices and lines, primarily serving the air conditioning, environmental protection, and new energy sectors [1][29]. - The intelligent manufacturing equipment industry in China is expected to grow from approximately 3.2 trillion yuan in 2023 to 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by increasing demand in downstream sectors [2][11]. - Aomeisen has established significant technological advantages in core areas such as forming processes, workpiece transfer, and intelligent control, which contribute to its competitive edge in the industry [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The intelligent manufacturing equipment industry in China is in a growth phase, with increasing demand from enterprises for smart manufacturing solutions [11]. - The household appliance sector, a key application area for Aomeisen's products, is transitioning towards technology-driven competition, with a focus on quality and efficiency improvements [17]. 2. Company Overview - Aomeisen's main products include intelligent equipment for heat exchanger production and pipeline processing, with a strong customer base among leading appliance manufacturers like Gree and Midea [4][29]. - The company reported revenues of 279 million yuan, 325 million yuan, and 358 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a projected revenue of 191.38 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.75% [1][35]. 3. Technological Innovation - Aomeisen has developed proprietary technologies such as a non-shrinkage expansion tube process, achieving over 99.6% qualification rates and reducing energy consumption by 70% [3][39]. - The company holds 467 valid patents, including 195 domestic invention patents, which protect its core technologies and enhance its market position [40]. 4. Market Position and Growth Potential - Aomeisen's core products are expected to generate significant revenue, with intelligent equipment for heat exchangers projected to account for 69.89% of its main business revenue in 2024 [4][41]. - The company is expanding into environmental protection and new energy sectors, with products like SRF/RDF production lines and lithium battery equipment, positioning itself as a multi-domain intelligent equipment service provider [6][41].

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock and bond markets have entered a low volatility consolidation phase, with the Wande All A index down by 0.44% and trading volume decreasing to 1.95 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 13 [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.09% and 1.18% respectively, while southbound capital saw a net inflow of 158.22 million HKD, indicating a potential rebound after the market decline [1][2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is currently experiencing indecision, with a "triangle" structure forming in the Wande All A daily chart, suggesting a battle between profit-taking and bullish sentiment [2] - If the market continues to oscillate, a diversified allocation strategy is recommended, including some dividend assets to mitigate potential volatility [2] - In the event of a significant market uptrend, increased thematic positions may be warranted, while a substantial downturn would suggest increasing dividend positions to wait for better entry points in technology themes [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The coal sector has emerged as a leading dividend performer, supported by inventory depletion, with coal stocks decreasing from 78.698 million tons on May 12 to 60.432 million tons by September 29 [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is suggested for increased positions, as the Hang Seng Technology Index has retraced to levels seen before significant positive events in early September [3] - The bond market is in a pricing dilemma, with a slight bullish sentiment prevailing, as evidenced by the yield movements of various bonds, particularly the 30-year government bonds showing a yield decline of over 2 basis points [4][5] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with precious metals continuing to perform strongly, while industrial metals like aluminum and copper have seen slight increases [8] - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction, with related commodities such as polysilicon and coking coal experiencing significant price increases, although the underlying fundamentals remain weak [9] - Despite the recent price highs in precious metals, there has been a notable outflow of capital, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [8][9]