证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：市场在等待 | | | 8 月 7 日，股市习惯性地早盘"仰卧"、午后"起坐"，上证指数走出十字星行情；债市延续修复行情，中间期 限继续成为领涨品种；商品市场继续降温，大涨品种仅剩碳酸锂。 股市，领涨板块继续轮动，半导体与稀土成为重点概念，重要指数由过去几日的全线上涨进入涨跌互现状 态。大盘板块相对坚挺，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利上涨 0.16%、0.03%、0.17%；中小微盘行情不再强势， 中证 1000、中证 2000 仅上涨 0.01%、0.07%，万得微盘股指下跌 0.17%；科技概念存在分化，不过整体表现同 样不强，科创 50 下跌 0.15%，恒生科技上涨 0.26%。债市，10 年、30 年国债收益率分别下行 0.95bp、0.65bp 至 1.69%、1.91%；10 年、30 年国债期货分别上涨 0.05%、0.03%。 国内商品市场延续回温势头，碳酸锂领涨，但板块轮动加速。行情不再是普涨格局，而是由具备特定供给 侧扰动预期的品种领涨。碳酸锂受供给收缩预期 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 保险行业 2025 年中报前瞻：资负两端延续回 暖，业绩稳健增长 [Table_Title2] 保险 II ► 投资端及总体业绩展望 股债市场回暖驱动投资端改善，我们预计 2025H1 净利润 总体改善。2025Q2 沪深 300 指数上涨 1.25%，较 2024Q2 表现 +3.40pp；截至 2025Q2 末，十年期国债到期收益率为 1.65%， 较 2025Q1 末及 2024 年末分别-16.6pp/-2.8pp。受益于股债双 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-01-02 2024-02-02 2024-03-02 2024-04-02 2024-05-02 2024-06-02 2024-07-02 2024-08-02 2024-09-02 2024-10-02 2024-11-02 2024-12-02 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a 1% year-on-year increase in primary aluminum production to 605,000 tons in Q2 2025, with a 13% decline in after-tax profit to 44.57 billion Indian Rupees [2][3] - Record alumina production of 587,000 tons in Q2 2025, representing a 9% year-on-year increase and a 36% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - Zinc production in India reached a historical high of 265,000 tons in Q2 2025, marking a 1% year-on-year increase but a 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease [4] - The overall production cost decreased by 21% year-on-year to 1,269 USD/ton [5] - The report indicates a significant increase in iron ore production, which rose by 42% year-on-year to 1.8 million tons in Q2 2025 [5] Production and Operational Performance - Primary aluminum production remained stable at 605,000 tons, with the lowest HM cost in 16 quarters at 888 USD/ton [3] - Zinc production from international companies increased by 50% year-on-year to 57,000 tons [4] - Oil production averaged 93,200 barrels per day in Q2 2025, with new oil fields partially offsetting natural declines [5] - The report notes a record high in pig iron production at 213,000 tons, with a 4% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was 374.34 billion Indian Rupees, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by premium and foreign exchange gains [10] - EBITDA grew by 5% year-on-year to 107.46 billion Indian Rupees, with an EBITDA margin of 35%, the highest in 13 quarters [11] - After-tax profit decreased by 13% year-on-year to 44.57 billion Indian Rupees, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.3x [16][18]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 7 日 [Table_Title] Anglo Gold 2025Q2 黄金总产量/销量分别环比增加 11.7%/8.7%至 25.01 吨/24.91 吨，归母净利润环比 增长 51.0%至 6.69 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 产量：2025Q2 公司黄金总产量为 80.4 万盎司（25.01 吨），环 比增加 11.7%，同比增加 21.3%。这一强劲的同比增长主要得 益于 Sukari 矿业公司的又一全季度贡献，以及几个主要矿山的 稳健运营表现。 销量：2025Q2 公司黄金总销量为 80.1 万盎司（24.91 吨），环 比增加 8.7%，同比增加 21.0%。 售价：2025Q2 公司黄金平均实现价格为 3287 美元/盎司 （760.9 元/克），环比上涨 14.4%，同比上涨 41.1%。 单位总现金成本：2025Q2 公司单位总现金成本为 1226 美元/盎 司（283.8 元/克），环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 7.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [6] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, ANTAM's nickel pig iron production increased by 2% to 4,569 tons, while sales decreased by 81% to 924 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15% and 87% respectively [1] - Nickel ore production decreased by 3% to 4.47 million wet tons, but sales increased by 14% to 4.37 million wet tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 63% and 85% respectively [2] - Gold production reached 208 kg (6,687 troy ounces), down 10% quarter-on-quarter and down 24% year-on-year, while gold sales increased by 13% to 15,566 kg (500,459 troy ounces), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76% [3] - Bauxite production increased by 11% to 728,360 wet tons, with sales decreasing by 12% [4] - Alumina production rose by 3% to 45,334 tons, with sales increasing by 7% to 47,060 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 19% and 2% respectively [4] - ANTAM is focusing on sustainable business development through downstream mineral development and strategic partnerships [5] - ANTAM is accelerating the development of a precious metal processing plant in Gresik JIIPE to meet growing market demand and expand its gold market [7] - In the nickel business, ANTAM is developing cooperative projects for the electric vehicle battery ecosystem in Indonesia, achieving several milestones in preliminary work, licensing, and funding [7] - The construction of integrated battery plants in Karawang and East Halmahera has commenced, involving multiple joint ventures [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - The company produced 180,000 pounds of U3O8 in Q2 2025 and expects a total production of approximately 1 million pounds of finished U3O8 for the year [1][9]. - The average uranium grade at the Pinyon Plain mine is reported to be 2.23%, making it one of the highest-grade uranium mines in U.S. history [1]. - The company anticipates a decrease in production costs starting from Q4 2025, with expected sales costs dropping to between $30 and $40 per pound by Q1 2026 [7][8]. Production and Sales - In Q2 2025, the company sold 50,000 pounds of U3O8 at an average price of $77.00 per pound, generating total revenue of $3.85 million with a gross margin of 31% [2]. - The company holds a total inventory of 1.875 million pounds of U3O8 as of June 30, 2025, which includes 725,000 pounds of finished U3O8 [4][10]. - The company has adjusted its sales guidance for 2025 from 220,000 pounds to 350,000 pounds of U3O8, reflecting increased demand from utility customers [12]. Cost Structure - The weighted average cost of finished U3O8 inventory as of June 30, 2025, is approximately $53.00 per pound [8]. - The company expects to achieve a total weighted average sales cost of $23 to $30 per pound of U3O8, positioning it among the lowest production costs globally [7]. Project Development - The company is actively developing its Pinyon Plain mine and has reported excellent drilling results, indicating the potential for increased uranium resources [13]. - The Donald rare earth project in Australia has received final regulatory approval, with a final investment decision expected by Q4 2025 [16]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenues of $4.212 million, a decrease of 52% year-over-year and a 75% decrease quarter-over-quarter [23]. - The net loss for Q2 2025 was $21.812 million, with total operating funds of $253.23 million, including $71.49 million in cash and cash equivalents [24].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the net production of primary aluminum reached 402,900 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% and year-on-year stability [2] - The sales volume of primary aluminum in Q2 2025 was 411,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% [2] - Value-added products (VAP) accounted for an average of 76% of total shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [2] - The company achieved a profit of 2,460 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately 65.3 million USD) in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [3] - Total revenue from contracts with customers was 434 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately 1.155 billion USD), showing a year-on-year growth of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% [3] Financial Performance Summary - The comprehensive total income for Q2 2025 was 2,190 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately 58.1 million USD), a year-on-year decrease of 67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [3] - Gross profit for Q2 2025 was 470 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately 125.1 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 54% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [3] - As of June 30, 2025, total assets were 2,657.9 million Bahraini Dinars (approximately 706.9 million USD), a decrease of 0.6% compared to December 31, 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong financial performance for Ball Corporation in Q2 2025, with net sales reaching $3.338 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% and a year-over-year increase of 12.8% [1][12] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was $215 million, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter growth of 20.1% and a year-over-year growth of 35.2% [1][12] - The company anticipates returning at least $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, supported by strong free cash flow generation [9][10] Financial Performance Summary Overall Financial Performance - Net sales for Q2 2025: $3.338 billion, up 7.8% quarter-over-quarter and 12.8% year-over-year [1][12] - Cost of sales (excluding depreciation and amortization): $2.690 billion, up 7.9% quarter-over-quarter and 14.1% year-over-year [1][12] - Earnings before taxes: $268 million, up 17.0% quarter-over-quarter and 34.0% year-over-year [1][12] Regional Performance 1. **North and Central America Beverage Packaging** - Q2 2025 comparable operating profit: $208 million, sales: $1.613 billion [2][13] - Sales growth attributed to volume and price mix, with moderate single-digit percentage increase in volume [2][3] 2. **EMEA Beverage Packaging** - Q2 2025 comparable operating profit: $129 million, sales: $1.050 billion [2][13] - Sales growth driven by volume and price mix, with favorable currency effects [2] 3. **South America Beverage Packaging** - Q2 2025 comparable operating profit: $51 million, sales: $477 million [6][13] - Year-over-year sales growth reflects increased volume [6][7] Non-Reported Business - Non-reported segments include unallocated corporate expenses and performance from personal and household care businesses [8] - The second quarter performance indicates growth in comparable operating profit from non-reported segments, partially offset by increased unallocated corporate expenses [8] Outlook - The company remains confident in its business resilience and growth momentum, aiming for a comparable diluted EPS growth of 12-15% in 2025 [10] - Strategic focus on local sourcing and production to mitigate international trade fluctuations [9][10]

Rating of the industry investment The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core views of the report - In July, credit spreads first narrowed and then widened, with institutional behavior amplifying the market trends. Looking ahead to August, the liquidity of funds is expected to remain stable, but the growth of wealth - management scale will slow down, potentially increasing the volatility of credit bonds. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity. The new tax regulations may enhance the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds and draw in some incremental funds. Additionally, it is advisable to pay attention to the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year credit bonds, as well as the investment opportunities of bank capital bonds with good liquidity [1][2][19] Summaries based on relevant catalogs 1. Seize repair opportunities and maintain liquidity 1.1 Credit bonds: focus on the repair market of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds - In July, the long - end interest rate fluctuated upward, and credit bonds experienced increased volatility. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. In the early part of the month, loose liquidity and the recovery of wealth - management scale led to a narrowing of credit spreads. In the middle, the significant increase in the scale of Sci - tech Bond ETFs boosted the trading of credit bonds. However, in the late part, due to the adjustment of the bond market and tightened liquidity, wealth - management products preemptively redeemed funds, causing funds to sell credit bonds in the secondary market, leading to a widening of credit spreads. By the end of the month, the central bank's efforts to maintain liquidity led to a decline in interest rates and a repair of credit spreads [11][12] - In August, the growth of wealth - management scale is expected to slow，reducing the demand for credit bond allocation. As both yields and credit spreads are at low levels, the volatility of credit bonds may increase. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with good liquidity [19] - The new tax regulations will increase the coupon - rate attractiveness of credit bonds, potentially attracting incremental funds. The varieties with relatively large adjustments in late July may experience a repair market. It is advisable to focus on the repair opportunities of medium - to - low - rated 2 - 3 - year and high - rated 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially those within 5 years [2][24] - During the adjustment period in late July, some high - rated individual bonds with good liquidity were sold first, resulting in a significant increase in yields. These bonds have relatively large repair space and faster repair speed. Specific individual bonds can be screened through brokerage data [25] 1.2 The impact of the new tax regulations on bank capital bonds may be limited - Theoretically, the new tax regulations reduce the cost - effectiveness of newly issued bank capital bonds relative to newly issued interest - rate bonds and general credit bonds. However, in practice, the main holders of bank capital bonds are bank self - operations, bank wealth - management products, and public funds. Bank self - operations often hold these bonds for business cooperation purposes, while bank wealth - management products and public funds are more focused on trading, so they may not consider the impact of taxes in the short term [31] - If the pricing of newly issued bank capital bonds after August 8 includes the tax premium of the new regulations, it may present a good investment opportunity as the high liquidity of new bonds may drive the narrowing of the spread between new and old bonds. The new regulations may also enhance the willingness of institutions to allocate old bonds, potentially leading to a duration - based market. Liquid 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds are the best choice for capital - gain speculation [31][32] 2. Urban investment bonds: sentiment in both primary and secondary markets declined, and spreads of medium - and short - duration bonds narrowed - In July, the supply of urban investment bonds remained weak, with positive but year - on - year decreasing net financing. The overall issuance sentiment was high but gradually weakened. The proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times decreased from over 60% in the first three weeks to around 50% in the last two weeks. The proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 5 years slightly increased, while the weighted average issuance coupon rate continued to decline [37] - Provincial performance varied, with most provinces having net inflows and about one - third still having net outflows. Shandong had the largest net financing, while Jiangsu had the largest net outflow [38] - Urban investment bonds showed differentiated performance in July. The yields of 1 - year bonds slightly decreased, while those of bonds with a maturity of 3 years and above increased. The credit spreads of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and within generally narrowed, while those of long - duration bonds mostly widened [40] - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds was fair, but it weakened slightly compared to June. The proportion of TKN transactions decreased from 75% to 71%, and the proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased from 74% to 64%. The trading of medium - and long - duration bonds was stable, and the proportion of low - grade bonds increased [44] 3. Industrial bonds: supply continued to increase, and low - rated and long - duration bonds performed better - In July, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The net financing of the public utilities, non - bank finance, food and beverage, and building decoration industries was relatively large. The issuance sentiment weakened significantly in late July [48] - The proportion of long - duration bonds with a maturity of over 5 years decreased significantly. The issuance interest rates of bonds within 1 year and 3 - 5 years decreased slightly, while that of bonds over 5 years increased slightly. Compared with urban investment bonds, the average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds were lower [50] - In July, the yields of industrial bonds showed differentiated performance, and most spreads narrowed. Low - rated and long - duration bonds with coupon - rate advantages performed better. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year AA+ and AA and below medium - term notes generally decreased, while those of most medium - to - high - grade varieties increased. Credit spreads generally narrowed [51]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股市杠杆正盛 | 国内市场表现 | | --- | 复盘与思考: 8 月 6 日，股市上涨趋势不变，且成交小幅放量，但领涨板块再度轮动，债市空头情绪减弱，中间期限表现更 佳，商品市场回归常态，仅剩"反内卷"品类独自起舞。 股市，资金博弈板块切换至军工、互联网、煤炭等领域，大盘板块涨幅收窄，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利 上涨 0.45%、0.24%、0.63%；中小微盘内部出现分化，中证 1000、中证 2000 依旧是资金博弈的热点，单日上涨 1.09%、1.19%，万得微盘股指仅上涨 0.42%；双创概念延续温和涨幅，科创 50、创业板指上涨 0.58%、0.66%。 债市，10 年国债活跃券下行 0.7bp 至 1.70%，30 年国债活跃券则持稳于 1.92%；10 年国债期货主力合约几乎持 平前一日收盘，30 年合约则下跌 0.04%。 国内商品方面，"双焦"与"双硅"延续强势，板块分化依旧。国内商品市场延续了昨日的回温势头，但行 情热度进一步向少数板块集中，整体分化格 ...