证券研究报告 农林牧渔 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 关税反制下的农业结构性机会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250331-20250403） 投资要点： 生猪：标肥价差后市预期不足，二育逐步出栏兑现利润。 联系人 标肥价差收窄，肥猪供应压力或显现。本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.60 元/kg，出 栏均重增至 128.89kg，15Kg 仔猪涨至 659 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.80 元/kg。 二育群体出栏意愿增强，延后的供应压力开始显现，猪价或有下行压力；中长期看 全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，2 月农业部全国能繁母猪存栏量 4066 万头，即将超出 105%的产 ...

证券研究报告 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 内需有望进一步发力，地产止跌回稳意义重大 房地产 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——美国宣布"对等关税"事件点评 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，房地产量价超预期下行、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：美国东部时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"相关政策并签署 总统行政令，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，其中拟对中国加征 34%关税， 对欧盟、越南、中国台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马 来西亚、柬埔 ...

证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 避险情绪升温，收益率大幅下行 ——信用分析周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/3） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：鑫苑(中国)置业有限公司所发行"19 鑫苑 01"展期；江苏华宏科技 股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"华宏转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周资金面边际收紧，公开市场共有 11868 亿元逆回购到期，央行 累计开展 6849 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 5019 亿元。或受美国征收"对等 关税"事件以及清明假期等因素影响，本周市场避险情绪明显升温，交易量和换手 率较上周均有较大幅度下降。基于我们对当前中国利率处于历史最低位，25Q2 债市 或维持震荡的判断，我们认为后市信用利差继续大幅收窄的可能性或较低。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差涨跌互现。城投债方面，3-5Y 城投信 用利差倒挂长端利差，且 3-5Y 信用利差处于较高历史分位，后续仍有较大收窄空间， 建议可选取发达地区的优质城投主 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The logistics sector is experiencing stable growth, with national freight logistics operating smoothly, showing a slight increase in cargo transport and express delivery volumes [4] - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff policies presents structural opportunities, particularly in the road transport sector, which is currently in a stable growth phase [4] - The logistics industry may face increased cost pressures due to high tariffs, potentially accelerating the formation of a unified logistics market where scale and technology become core competitive advantages [5] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand and lower oil prices, while facing challenges from increased costs due to tariffs on imported aircraft and parts [6][10] - The shipping industry is threatened by the ongoing trade tensions and tariffs, which could lead to a restructuring of global trade routes and supply chains, favoring oil transportation and intra-Asian shipping [10][11] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations have been orderly, with significant increases in cargo transport and express delivery volumes during the monitored period [4] - The road transport sector saw a year-on-year increase in freight volume and passenger flow, indicating a potential for growth driven by domestic manufacturing [4] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see a rebound in demand due to macroeconomic recovery, with a focus on key airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Air China [16] - The supply chain for aircraft manufacturing is under pressure due to tariffs, which could increase costs for airlines [6] Shipping - The shipping industry faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, which have significantly impacted global trade volumes, particularly in long-distance trade between the U.S. and Asia [10] - The oil shipping segment may benefit from increased demand due to geopolitical factors and sanctions affecting oil trade [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with major players like ZTO Express and SF Express expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [16] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, providing opportunities for long-term investment in leading companies [17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that AI Agents are accelerating penetration across various industries and may become the primary mode of human-machine collaboration, with three models identified: embedding, copilot, and agent mode, with the agent mode being the most efficient [3][9][10] - In 2022, China's data output reached 8.1ZB, growing by 22.7% year-on-year, and is projected to reach approximately 9.5ZB in 2023, making it the second-largest data producer globally [18][20] - The report identifies 15 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange involved in AI applications, including AiRong Software (AI finance), Guozi Software (AI-enabled data assets), and Huaxin Yongdao (AI governance) [24][25] Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the new energy industry increased by 0.51% to 45.7X, while the electronic equipment industry's P/E ratio rose from 51.8X to 52.0X [34][59] - The report notes that the median P/E ratio for the machinery equipment industry decreased from 52.4X to 50.9X, and the information technology industry's P/E ratio fell from 61.6X to 59.3X [41][47] - The report mentions that the total market value of the new energy industry decreased from 468.4 billion to 465.3 billion, with notable stock performance from companies like QiuGuan Cable (+17.39%) and YiNeng Power (+5.75%) [59][61] Group 3 - The report states that the total market value of the electronic equipment industry decreased from 1195.1 billion to 1164.8 billion, with the median market value rising from 21.8 billion to 23.2 billion [36][37] - The machinery equipment industry's total market value fell from 972.7 billion to 939.7 billion, with the median market value decreasing from 19.5 billion to 18.7 billion [42][44] - The report indicates that the total market value of the information technology industry decreased from 878.1 billion to 858.4 billion, while the median market value remained unchanged at 24.5 billion [49][50] Group 4 - The report highlights that Kairun Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. won a bid for an electrification project in an African country, with a contract value of 732.121 million USD [63]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [5][44] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese trendy toy industry, leveraging its IP toy full industry chain operation capabilities. The expansion of overseas business is expected to unlock new growth potential [10][44] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with net profit estimates of 58.99 billion RMB, 83.50 billion RMB, and 110.53 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 88.75%, 41.54%, and 32.38% [8][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company is 162.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 218,362.56 million HKD [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 6,301 million RMB in 2023, 13,038 million RMB in 2024, 21,547 million RMB in 2025, 28,747 million RMB in 2026, and 35,864 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 36.46%, 106.92%, 65.26%, 33.42%, and 24.76% [6][43] - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 1,082.34 million RMB in 2023 to 5,899.17 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 127.55% in 2023 and 88.75% in 2025 [6][43] Industry Insights - The trendy toy market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 626 billion RMB in 2023 and a CAGR of 31.24% from 2019 to 2023. The target demographic primarily consists of individuals aged 15-39 [7][15] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 22.8% in 2019 to 26.4% in 2021. The company’s market share increased from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021 [21][7] Revenue Drivers - The company’s revenue is significantly driven by its proprietary artist IP, which is projected to generate 111.21 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 85.30% of total revenue, with a CAGR of 60.12% from 2020 to 2024 [30][8] - The overseas business is emerging as a new growth driver, with revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets expected to reach 50.66 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 375% [35][8] Cost Management - The company is expected to maintain a sales expense ratio of 26.00%, 25.00%, and 24.00% from 2025 to 2027, while the management expense ratio is projected to decrease to 5.50%, 5.00%, and 4.50% in the same period [39][9]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 06 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 孙洁玲 SAC：S1350524120004 sunjieling@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 政策持续支持中药创新，关注健民集团 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/3/31-25/4/3） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 本周医药市场表现分析：3 月 31 日至 4 月 3 日，医药指数上涨 1.20%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为+2.57%。本周创新药板块继续活跃，科伦药业、海思科、一品红、恒瑞 医药等前期滞涨标的涨幅较好，出口产业链受美国关税影响，表现较差。近期美国推出 "对等关税"，中国政府宣布反制关税，建议关注：1）国产替代机会，建议关注医疗器 械（联影医疗、开立医疗、澳华内镜、天臣医疗、惠泰医疗、微电生理、迈普医学）、 血制品（派林生物、天坛生物、博雅生物）以及上游产业链等；2）关注消费类资产，中 药（华润三九、东阿阿胶、 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 06 日 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 存量代码切换持续推进，发布程序化交易管理实施细则完善规则体系 证券分析师 ——北交所周观察第二十期（20250406） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 联系人 2025 年 3 月北证 50 指数有所调整下跌 2.74%，环保、公用事业等红利板块领涨。 2025Q1 北证 50 指数涨幅(+22%)远跑赢其他主要指数，除此之外科创 100、科创 200 等指数涨幅也超过 10%。从细分行业涨跌幅来看，2025 年 3 月资本市场红利方向较 为强势，北交所市场也有类似情况，环保、有色金属、公用事业等涨幅居前。2025Q1 整体来看，虽然 3 月相关行业有些回撤，但是一季度在 DeepSeek 和机器人等泛科 技产业链事件催化带动下，通信、计算机等产业链涨幅依然居前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with significant growth in the health business creating a new growth driver [5][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.728 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.85%, and a net profit of 528 million yuan, up 19.14% year-on-year [7] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout to 0.62 yuan per share (including tax), raising the payout ratio to 50.61% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 3.137 billion yuan (2023), 3.728 billion yuan (2024), 4.411 billion yuan (2025E), 5.064 billion yuan (2026E), and 5.826 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - The net profit projections for the same period are: 443 million yuan (2023), 528 million yuan (2024), 644 million yuan (2025E), 745 million yuan (2026E), and 854 million yuan (2027E) [6] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly to 46.55% in 2024, an increase of 4.64 percentage points [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 12.99% in 2024, increasing to 14.77% by 2027 [6] Business Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical industry segment generated revenue of 2.161 billion yuan in 2024, up 17.82% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical commerce segment achieved 1.249 billion yuan, up 14.81% [7] - The healthcare services segment saw revenue of 449 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.15% [7] - The company’s hemorrhoid treatment products showed steady growth, with revenue of 1.592 billion yuan, up 23.19% [7] Growth Drivers - The health business is expected to become a new growth curve, with over 200 health products developed, including key items like the Baobao Eye Cream and sanitary wet wipes [7] - The beauty product line saw a revenue increase of 30% in 2024, with sanitary wet wipes surpassing 100 million yuan in revenue [7] - The company is enhancing its distribution network and marketing efforts, which are expected to drive further growth in its core product lines [7]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 06 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 关税战风波未平 继续建议谨慎 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/3/31-25/4/4） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 海外 AI：本周，美国 50 位两党参议员联合提出对俄罗斯的新一轮严厉制裁法案，核心在于对从俄罗斯进口石油、 天然气与铀等资源的国家征收高达 500%的惩罚性关税，旨在迫使俄方重回和平谈判桌。我们认为该法案若正式 实施，将对全球铀产业格局产生重大影响：一方面或切断俄罗斯对美铀供应，推高美国核电运营成本，迫使其加 快供应链"去俄罗斯化"；另一方面将利好加拿大、澳大利亚、哈萨克斯坦等非俄铀供应国，同时推动美本土铀 矿企业和战略储备体系重启，全球铀价有望维持强势上行。此外，本周特朗普签 ...