Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][108]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to unresolved negotiations for long-term contracts, with recent price changes of +0.83% for London copper, -0.03% for Shanghai copper, and +1.74% for New York copper. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial aspects such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [5][25]. - Aluminum prices are also fluctuating, with a decrease in alumina prices by 3.35% to 3170 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices are stable at 20525 CNY/ton, supported by ongoing inventory depletion [5][36]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with carbonate lithium prices down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests waiting for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][77]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [5][90]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 3.57%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.07 percentage points [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, which was below expectations, while initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts [9]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.83%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.03%. The report indicates a significant drop in London copper inventory by 13.34% [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - The report states that aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with a recent increase in aluminum profits by 3.60% to 4383 CNY/ton [36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight increase of 0.23% in London, while zinc prices rose by 1.91% in London [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have shown minor fluctuations, with London tin prices up by 0.08% and Shanghai tin prices down by 1.26% [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate lithium down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests that the market is waiting for supply-side adjustments [77]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are stable domestically, with a slight decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.32% to 15.63 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain unchanged at 23.50 CNY/ton [90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Insights - In May, electricity consumption growth was 4.4%, with significant contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [4][13] - The report highlights the recovery of fire power generation, while water power generation saw an expanded decline [6][18] - The collaboration between waste incineration and IDC (Intelligent Data Center) is emerging as a significant trend in the environmental sector [22][23] Electricity Sector Summary - In May, the total electricity consumption reached a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 8.4%, 2.1%, and 9.4% respectively [4][13] - Cumulatively, from January to May, electricity consumption grew by 3.4%, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 9.6%, 2.2%, and 6.8% respectively [4][17] - The report notes a decline in electricity growth due to reduced demand from high-energy-consuming industries, but new industries like information transmission are driving stable growth [5][17] Power Generation Summary - In May, the industrial power generation was 737.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [6][18] - Fire power generation turned positive with a growth of 1.2%, while water power generation declined by 14.3% [6][19] - The report anticipates that the collaboration between waste incineration and IDC will enhance cash flow and lead to a revaluation of companies in the sector [23][25] Environmental Sector Summary - The report emphasizes the importance of waste incineration and IDC collaboration, highlighting a strategic partnership between Junxin Co. and Changsha Digital Group [22][23] - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from stable profitability and improving cash flow due to reduced capital expenditures [26][27] - The report suggests that companies in the waste incineration and water service sectors are entering a phase of positive cash flow, with potential for increased dividends [26][27] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on four major hydropower companies: Guotou Power, Huaneng Hydropower, Yangtze Power, and Chuan Investment Energy [7][21] - In the environmental sector, companies like Everbright Environment and Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection are highlighted for their potential in dividend increases [38][39] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong utility sector may see a revaluation due to declining interest rates and external market conditions [35][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The general deposit growth rate of the Big Four banks has been persistently low, and they face significant pressure. The difference in deposit rates between large and small - medium - sized banks may lead to a continued low growth rate of the Big Four's general deposits. The Big Four rely more on inter - bank liabilities to support asset expansion [1]. - The central bank's easing in Q2 2025 has supported the Big Four to expand their bond investment scale and increase leverage in the bond market, which has pushed down bond yields and exacerbated the problem of yield inversion in bond investments by banks and insurance funds. Attention should be paid to regulatory attitudes towards the bond market and central bank's actions on the capital side [1]. - It is recommended to be bullish on long - term urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%. The investment value of interest - rate bonds is relatively low, and the spread of low - rated credit bonds is expected to further compress. It is also suggested to continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks [1]. Summary by Related Content Big Four Banks' Deposit Situation - Since 2024, the general deposit growth rate of the Big Four banks has declined rapidly. In 2024, from March to June, it dropped from 10.2% to 4.4%. In May 2025, the general deposits of the Big Four decreased by 0.2 trillion yuan, while those of small - medium - sized banks increased by 0.42 trillion yuan. As of the end of May 2025, the general deposit growth rate of the Big Four was 5.8%, significantly lower than 9.4% of small - medium - sized banks [1]. - From January to May 2025, the Big Four's liability scale increased by 8.46 trillion yuan, with general deposits increasing by 3.11 trillion yuan, accounting for only 36.8% of the liability increment. In contrast, the proportion of general deposits in the liability increment of small - medium - sized banks reached 88.4% [1]. Asset Expansion and Investment of Banks - As of the end of May 2025, the credit growth rate of the Big Four was 9.5%, and the bond investment growth rate was as high as 17.8%. The credit growth rate of small - medium - sized banks was 5.8%, and the bond investment growth rate was 15.2%. The Big Four rely on inter - bank liabilities and borrowing from the central bank to support asset expansion [1]. Bond Market Situation - In Q2 2025, the central bank was extremely accommodative. Since early June, the DR001 rate has often been below 1.4%. This has led to a significant increase in bond market leverage and bond fund duration. On June 20, the average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds reached 5.0 years, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields declined [1]. - The trading volume of bond - pledged repurchase in the bond market has risen to near - historical extreme levels, and the bond market leverage has reached a historical high. The 10Y treasury bond yield is approaching a previous low [1]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to be bullish on long - term urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%. The investment value of interest - rate bonds is relatively low, and among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - performance than treasury bonds. The spread of low - rated credit bonds is expected to further compress, and it is estimated that the yield of 5Y high - grade credit bonds may reach 1.8% in the future [1]. - It is also suggested to continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks, as low domestic interest rates may drive up the valuation of high - dividend - yield targets [1].

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2025 年北交所打新火爆申购资金均值近 5000 亿，单周受理 10 家企业 IPO 证券分析师 ——北交所周观察第三十一期（20250622） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 申购资金再超 5000 亿元，申购户数创造历史新高达到 51.7 万户。2025 年 6 月 20 日， 广信科技发行完毕。其中网上发行获配户数为 82,500 户，网上获配股数为 1900 万股， 网上获配金额为 1.9 亿元，网上获配比例为 0.03%，网上有效申购倍数为 2,908.15 倍（启 用超额配售选择权后）；发行战略配售股份实际获配 400 万股，战略配售募集资金金额 合计 4000 万元，主要包含 10 家机构，包括核心员工 ...

行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券研究报告 公用事业 证券分析师 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 绿电底层需求持续扩容 看好下游运营和监测设备 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新型电力系统系列报告之一：绿电绿证碳市场政策体系全景梳理 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 在新型电力系统机制框架的理论体系中，电力价值呈现出多元复合的特性，其核心 由能量价值、时间价值与环境价值三大要素构成，当前碳市场建设的滞后，致使电 力的环境价值未能有效纳入定价范围，成为新能源发展承压的症结所在。为有效解 决电力环境价值定价问题，我国系统性构建了以碳市场、绿电交易市场和绿证交易 市场为核心的绿色电力交易市场体系，其中碳市场交易碳配额，绿电市场交易绿电 （含绿证价值），绿证市场交易绿证，同时还催生出碳排放权的 ...

市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 06 | | 日 | | | 19 | | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 23.57 | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 高 | 内 | | | | 55.97/7.96 | | 最 | | | 最 | | / | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 2,341.94 | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | 1,367.63 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | 99.36 | | | | | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 43.51 | | | | | | | | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | | 6.86 | | | | | | | ...

Economic Overview - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [8][10] - The national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first five months was 19.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, slightly slowing down by 0.3 percentage points from January to April [8][10] - Exports showed a steady increase, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [9][10] Consumer Sector Insights - The retail sales of household appliances grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 53.0%, driven by national subsidies and promotional events like "618" [8][10] - The retail sales of communication equipment also saw a robust growth of 33.0% year-on-year [8][10] - Service retail sales increased by 5.2% in the first five months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand for services [8][10] Uranium Industry Analysis - Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) announced a fundraising of approximately 200 million USD to purchase physical uranium, marking its first procurement since November 2024 [12][13] - The expected procurement could support uranium prices, with SPUT potentially purchasing around 1,200 tons of U3O8, which would account for about 6.5% of the total spot market volume in 2024 [13][14] - The global nuclear energy sector is experiencing a surge in activity following recent U.S. policies aimed at accelerating advanced reactor deployment, creating a favorable environment for uranium and nuclear-related investments [14] Company Profile: Zhongtian Technology - Zhongtian Technology is a leading supplier of communication and power transmission equipment in China, with a diversified business structure including marine equipment, optical communication, and power transmission [20][21] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing offshore wind energy market, with significant opportunities arising from both domestic and international projects [21][22] - Profit forecasts for Zhongtian Technology indicate a net profit of 34.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [22]

证券研究报告 海外 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 证券分析师 SPUT 或将重启采购，铀板块三季度有望持续催化 投资评级： 无 ——铀行业点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：Sprott 旗下实物铀信托（SPUT）宣布增发融资，总额达 2 亿美元。2025 年 6 月 16 日，Sprott 公司宣布，其旗下的实物铀信托基金（SPUT）将以每份 17.25 美 元的价格，向包销商 Canaccord Genuity 发行 1160 万份基金单位，总募资额约 2 亿美元。募集资金将 100%用于购买实物铀（包括铀精矿和六氟化铀）及相关费用， 以支持信托的投资目标。该交易预计将于 2025 年 6 月 20 日左右完成，仍需获得多 伦多证券交易所等监管批准。 联系人 SPUT 有望自去年 11 月以来首次恢复采购实物铀，三季度 ...

证券研究报告 通信 | 通信设备 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 06 | 月 | 日 | | 18 | 2025 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 13.85 | | | 一 年 内 高 最 低 | | | | | 最 | | | | / | | （元） | | | 17.78/12.10 | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 47,269.35 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 47,269.35 | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 5 月社零数据点评 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速较快 投资要点： 分品类看： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 1.5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速 较快 1.1.社零总体数据 5 月社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。除汽车外社会消费品零售总额 为 37316 亿元，同比增长 7.0%。分区域来看，5 月城镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 36057/5269 亿元，分别同比+6.5%/+5.4%。 图表 1：中国 2022 年至今月度社零总额（亿元）及当月同比情况 资料来源：wind，华源证券研究所 5 月社零整体同增 6.4%。5 ...