证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 19 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 5 月社零数据点评 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速较快 投资要点： 分品类看： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 1.5 月社零整体同增 6.4%，家具、家电等品类增速 较快 1.1.社零总体数据 5 月社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。除汽车外社会消费品零售总额 为 37316 亿元，同比增长 7.0%。分区域来看，5 月城镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 36057/5269 亿元，分别同比+6.5%/+5.4%。 图表 1：中国 2022 年至今月度社零总额（亿元）及当月同比情况 资料来源：wind，华源证券研究所 5 月社零整体同增 6.4%。5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tangshan Port, indicating a stable and high dividend yield from its bulk cargo port services [5][7]. Core Views - Tangshan Port focuses on bulk cargo handling, primarily iron ore, coal, and steel, serving the industrial hinterland of Tangshan. The company has strategically divested from secondary businesses to enhance profitability and maintain a high dividend payout [6][9]. - The port benefits from a strong industrial base in Tangshan, particularly in the steel sector, which supports cargo throughput. The integration of Hebei's ports has improved operational efficiency and reduced competition, allowing Tangshan Port to capture additional coal volumes from the transitioning Qinhuangdao Port [6][82]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Tangshan Port - Tangshan Port, established in 1989, has become the second-largest port in terms of cargo throughput globally, focusing on bulk cargo services [14][15]. - The port's geographical advantages and proximity to major industrial areas enhance its operational capabilities [19][20]. 2. Industrial Support for Cargo Growth - The economic growth in Tangshan, with a GDP of 1,000.39 billion yuan in 2024, supports stable demand for steel and coal, which are critical for the port's operations [52][55]. - The steel industry in Tangshan is robust, with significant production capacity, directly benefiting the port's throughput [60][67]. 3. Benefits from Port Integration - The integration of Hebei's ports has led to improved operational efficiency and a more favorable competitive environment for Tangshan Port [82][85]. - The restructuring allows Tangshan Port to take advantage of the shifting cargo volumes from Qinhuangdao Port, which is transitioning to a tourism-focused operation [91]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Tangshan Port's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 20.15 billion, 20.74 billion, and 21.13 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.84%, 2.92%, and 1.89% [5][7]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.97, 11.63, and 11.41 for the same period, reflecting a stable valuation [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for a new development model in the real estate sector to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth. It highlights the importance of long-term planning and systematic policy support across various areas such as planning, land, finance, and fiscal measures [51][52] - The report notes that the central government has consistently stressed the importance of stabilizing the real estate market since September 2024, with a focus on high-quality housing development [4][55] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.6%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.2%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.8% during the week [4][7] - In terms of individual stocks, ST Zhongdi increased by 8.7%, while Hai Tai Development decreased by 18.8% [7] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 7-13, 2025, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 212 million square meters, a 14.4% increase from the previous week [14] - For June up to the week of June 13, total new housing transactions in these cities reached 362 million square meters, a 12.8% increase month-on-month but a 0.6% decrease year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of June 7-13, 2025, 21 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 216 million square meters, a 31.4% increase from the previous week [30] - For June up to the week of June 13, total second-hand housing transactions reached 371 million square meters, a 28.1% increase month-on-month and a 7.3% increase year-on-year [34] Industry News - The State Council emphasized the construction of a new real estate development model, which is crucial for the stable and healthy development of the market. It called for a systematic approach to stabilize expectations and activate demand [51][52] - Various cities have implemented measures such as the cancellation of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou and the promotion of housing "trade-in" policies in Jiangsu [51][52] Company Announcements - In May 2025, several companies reported their sales figures: Longfor Group at 6.47 billion yuan (down 26% year-on-year), China Jinmao at 12.44 billion yuan (up 72% year-on-year), and China Resources Land at 18.35 billion yuan (down 11% year-on-year) [55]

Fixed Income - Economic recovery shows divergence, with the bond market expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Current economic operation is in a neutral zone, with marginal changes primarily in consumption compared to last year. The bond market is unlikely to see a trend-driven bull or bear market in the short term. [2][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is projected to remain in the range of 1.6%-1.8% by the end of the year, with a focus on credit bonds yielding over 2% as a balanced investment strategy. [9] Electronics - Broadcom's FY25Q2 performance was strong, with revenue reaching $15.005 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by AI semiconductor business, which saw a 46% increase in revenue. [10][11] - The demand for AI networks is expected to grow, with significant investments from large cloud service providers. The introduction of the Tomahawk6 switch chip, which offers double the switching capacity of existing products, is a key development. [11][12] Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The municipal environmental sector is entering a phase of stable cash flow and increased dividend rates, with waste-to-energy and water companies showing strong profitability due to regulated return models. [14][15] - The decline in Hong Kong interest rates is expected to accelerate capital inflow into the stock market, enhancing the valuation of low-correlation, long-duration assets represented by Hong Kong dividend stocks. [16][17] Transportation - The express delivery sector is experiencing robust growth, with a forecasted 16% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume for May. The collaboration with e-commerce is expected to further boost consumption. [20][21] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to lead to increased oil prices and shipping rates, with a focus on VLCC shipping companies benefiting from this situation. [22][31] Real Estate and Construction - The government has signaled stronger support for the real estate market, emphasizing the construction of quality housing and urban renewal projects, which is expected to drive demand in the construction sector. [32][33] - Key players in urban renewal and affordable housing construction, such as China State Construction, are recommended for investment due to their resource synergy and comprehensive capabilities. [33][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the negative economic cycle of the past two years has ended. The economy is expected to stabilize, and the marginal change may lie in consumption. The bond market is unlikely to experience a trend - based bear or bull market in the short term [1]. - Interest - rate bonds may have a phased narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. The company is bearish on ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the 10Y Treasury bond may operate in a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.8% by the end of the year [1]. - The significant reduction in long - term time deposit rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The decline in deposit rates will promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the credit spread may be further compressed. It is recommended to focus on 5Y credit bonds with a yield of over 2% [1]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro News - As of the end of May 2025, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The social financing scale stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [10]. - In May 2025, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, while core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [11]. - In the first five months of 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [17]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption: Continued Recovery - As of June 8, the daily average retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars increased by 19.0% and 10.4% year - on - year respectively. As of June 13, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days decreased by 48.7% year - on - year. As of May 30, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 7.7% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 3.8% year - on - year [19][24]. 2.2 Transportation: Temporary Tariff Relief Releases Short - term Foreign Trade Dividends - As of June 8, the container throughput of ports increased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the CCFI composite index decreased by 28.3% year - on - year, and the average Baltic Dry Freight Index increased by 1.0% year - on - year. As of June 11, the average migration scale index decreased by 15.2% year - on - year. As of June 8, the number of civil aviation flights increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up and delivery volume increased by 16.2% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively. The railway freight volume decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 1.8% year - on - year [28][30][40]. 2.3 Operating Rates: Differentiation in the Petrochemical Industry Chain - As of June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.3pct year - on - year. As of June 12, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 3.2pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 0.6pct year - on - year. As of June 13, the average PX operating rate was 84.3%, and the average PTA operating rate was 80.5% [50][53][55]. 2.4 Real Estate: Continued Pressure - As of June 13, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 17.4% year - on - year, and the number of transactions increased by 21.5% year - on - year. As of June 6, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. As of June 8, the listing volume index and listing price index of second - hand housing in national cities decreased by 65.5% and 7.6% year - on - year respectively. The number of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the planned construction area decreased by 50.6% year - on - year, the floor price decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the land premium rate decreased by 0.9pct year - on - year [62][64][68]. 2.5 Prices: Commodity Prices Under Pressure - As of June 13, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 17.0% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The CRB spot composite index increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the commodity price BPI decreased by 10.9% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 30.3% year - on - year, the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 12.8% year - on - year, the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 12.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of glass decreased by 31.4% year - on - year [70][73][74]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Slight Differentiation at the Short End, and the Bond Yield Curve Flattening - On June 13, overnight Shibor, R001, R007, DR001, IBO001, and IBO007 showed different trends compared to June 9. Most Treasury bond yields declined, and the yields of national development bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also changed. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB decreased compared to June 6 [79][87][96]. 4. Institutional Behavior: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Increasing Duration, Credit - Bond Funds with Stable Duration - As of June 15, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies decreased by 1.05pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate percentile within the year was below 10%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure interest - rate bond funds has first decreased and then increased, while that of medium - and long - term pure credit - bond funds has shown a slight oscillation [100][101][104]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Interest - rate bonds may have a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Be bearish on ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. When the 10Y Treasury bond yield reaches the upper limit of the range, increase the duration; when it approaches the lower limit, reduce the duration. Focus on 5Y credit bonds with a yield of over 2%. Also, pay more attention to Hong Kong financial stocks, especially Hong Kong bank stocks with large valuation repair space [1][108].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年06月16日 华源晨会精粹 20250616 机械/建材建筑 有序搭建新模式，推进好房子，更大力度推动止跌回稳——国务院常 务会议点评：6 月 13 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地 产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报。会议提到，构建房地产发展新模式， 对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚持稳 中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。"将加快完善与房地产发展新模式 相适配的系列融资制度"，结合此次会议"坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相 关基础性制度"的表述，我们认为，包括现房销售在内的房地产发展新模式是中长 期维度的长效机制的逐步建立，同时也或将是建立在房地产平稳基础上的有序推进。 好房子：纳入城市更新工作统筹，多方面予以政策支持。止跌回稳：更大力度推动 房地产市场止跌回稳，政策支持值得期待。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，房地产量价超预期下行，房地产政策不及预期 北交所 AI 技术在智能家居产业加速渗透，北交所 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing clear signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at boosting demand for housing and urban renewal projects expected to drive construction demand [5][10] - The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises with resource synergy and comprehensive capabilities in urban renewal and affordable housing construction, such as China State Construction, as well as quality stocks in the decoration sector that have completed asset clearing and are expected to see a rebound in profitability, like Yasha Co., Jianghe Group, and Jintanglong [5][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the construction decoration index fell by 1.41% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% [7][22] - The report identifies 31 stocks in the construction sector that rose, with the top five performers being ST Baili (+22.89%), Libote (+19.08%), Aoya Co. (+14.55%), Zhite New Materials (+12.11%), and Tongguan Mining Construction (+12.07%) [7][22] Policy and Investment Trends - The report emphasizes that the State Council's meeting on June 13, 2025, called for greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market and promote the construction of "good houses" as part of urban renewal, with comprehensive support in planning, land, finance, and other areas [5][10] - Local governments, such as Guangzhou, are responding with measures to stimulate housing demand, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [5][10] Recommendations - The report recommends three main lines for structural investment opportunities in the construction sector: 1) Focus on regional construction projects, particularly in the central and western regions and along the Belt and Road Initiative [7] 2) Invest in state-owned enterprises with stable dividends and valuation recovery potential, such as China State Construction and China Railway [7] 3) Identify companies actively pursuing transformation and upgrades in areas like smart manufacturing and digitalization [7][10] Company Dynamics - The report provides insights into recent contract wins and project announcements from various companies, including China Power Construction winning a major offshore wind power project worth approximately 10.77 billion yuan [18] - It also highlights strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as Zhite New Materials signing a strategic cooperation agreement valued at approximately 302 million yuan [19] Infrastructure Data Tracking - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds, noting that 471.42 billion yuan in special bonds were issued in the week, with a cumulative issuance of 35,919.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 78.68% [14] Overall Market Outlook - The report concludes that the construction sector is entering a period of value reassessment, with structural opportunities emerging amid ongoing policy support and the acceleration of project implementation [13][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the municipal environmental protection sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is entering a period of stock operation with significant capital expenditure reduction, leading to positive free cash flow for companies. By the end of 2023, the national urban domestic waste harmless treatment rate reached 99.98%, and the water supply coverage rates for cities, counties, and rural areas were 99.4%, 98.3%, and 87.5% respectively, indicating a balanced urban water supply capacity [5][4]. - The decline in Hong Kong interest rates is expected to lead to a revaluation of dividend assets, particularly in public utilities such as electricity and municipal environmental protection [5][4]. - The report suggests focusing on public utility assets based on cash flow improvement expectations, dividend performance, and dividend yield as screening criteria, recommending companies such as China Everbright International, Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection, and others [5][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report highlights the stable profitability of waste incineration power generation and water companies, which follow a permitted return model. The average reasonable profit level for water supply companies has been set at a net asset return rate of 8-10% since 1998 [5][4]. Cash Flow and Dividend Insights - Companies in the waste incineration and water sectors are expected to see improved cash flow as they transition to positive free cash flow. The report notes that historical issues with high accounts receivable are being addressed, with local government debt resolution expected to accelerate accounts receivable collection in 2024 [5][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their dividend rates and expected yields for 2025, including: - China Everbright International: projected dividend yield of 5.9% - Green Power Environmental: projected H-share dividend yield of 8.4% - Beikong Water Group: projected dividend yield of 6.8% - Guangdong Investment: projected dividend yield of 6.4% - Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection: projected H-share dividend yield of 5.6% [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company, Chuangyuan Xinke, is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" in the field of radio frequency communication testing instruments, with a 27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025. It focuses on wireless communication testing, vehicle networking, and satellite internet testing, holding numerous patents and core technologies [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from emerging opportunities in vehicle networking and low-altitude economies, driven by advancements in 5G/6G technology and government initiatives [5][7]. - The company has a strong R&D focus, with 44.63% of its revenue allocated to R&D in 2024, and has made significant technological breakthroughs in key areas [6][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of June 13, 2025, is 22.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of 3,198.20 million yuan and a circulating market value of 2,360.77 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 269 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 19 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 54.97% [11]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability, with EPS expected to rise from 0.09 yuan in 2024 to 0.34 yuan by 2027 [11][12]. Industry Outlook - The global electronic measurement instrument market is projected to reach 20 billion USD by 2028, driven by advancements in automation, smart laboratories, and the rapid growth of vertical industries [12]. - In China, the electronic measurement instrument market has grown from 30.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 37.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a forecasted growth rate of 5% to 7% from 2024 to 2030 [12].

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 16 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 国内农药价格有所分化，关注北交所农药行业领先企业颖泰生物 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十八期（20250613） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 源引金融活水润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. | 国内农药价格有所分化，静待价格走出周期低谷 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. | 全球农药市场稳中有升，中国原药产量居世界前列 4 | | | 1.2. | 北交所企业：颖泰生物—位列国内农药销售百强榜前十 | 7 | | 2. | 总量：北交所消费服务股股价涨跌幅中值-1.81% | 11 | | 3. | 行业：泛消费产业市盈率 中值+16.93%至 TTM 78.5X | 13 | | 4. | 公告：锦波生物成为服贸基金二期的有限合伙人 ...