Domestic Macro Policy - The central government emphasizes a stable and progressive economic work approach for 2026, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for this year[3][10]. - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance through integrated stock and incremental policies[3][10]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, aiming to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[5][17]. Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Recent policies include the release of the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits and the introduction of antitrust compliance guidelines for internet platforms[13][14]. - The 2026 national energy work conference has set key tasks, emphasizing the transition to green and low-carbon energy sources, with an expected addition of over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity[14]. Real Estate Policy - Shandong Province has introduced guidelines for a "housing old-for-new" program, proposing three models to encourage housing upgrades[15][16]. - The total urban housing demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be around 4.98 billion square meters[16]. Financial Regulation - The central financial committee stresses the importance of effectively managing financial risks related to local small and medium financial institutions and real estate enterprises, while also addressing local government financing platform debts[19][20]. - The merger plan for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities has been announced, marking a significant consolidation in the financial sector[20]. Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with a voting outcome of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a cautious approach to future rate changes[24]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan has raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat persistent inflation[24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The electronic industry index decreased by 3.02% during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors experiencing declines of 3.26% and 4.12%, respectively [3] - The storage sector showed resilience, with significant gains in major companies such as Micron and SanDisk, indicating a strong performance amidst overall market fluctuations [3][4] - The report highlights the ongoing updates in AI models and the sustained high demand in the storage sector, suggesting a positive outlook for companies involved in AI computing and storage solutions [4][6] Market Review - The U.S. tech sector rebounded after a significant drop, while the A-share electronic sector faced a general decline [3] - Notable performances included Nvidia rising by 3.41%, Tesla by 4.85%, and Micron by 10.28%, while Apple and Google saw slight declines [3] Industry Updates - Multiple significant AI model updates were released, with companies like Xiaomi and Google launching advanced models that enhance performance and efficiency [4] - Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop an AI inference chip, expected to enter mass production in 2026 [5] Storage Sector Insights - Storage prices are continuing to rise, impacting downstream terminal pricing, with Dell planning to increase commercial PC prices by 10% to 30% [6] - Micron's FY26Q1 revenue reached $13.64 billion, a year-over-year increase of 57%, with guidance for FY26Q2 revenue also exceeding market expectations [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors such as storage and AI computing, as well as the end-side AI sector, which is expected to maintain strong demand [7] - Beneficiary companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, and others involved in the AI and storage sectors [7]

数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 非银金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《美联储降息利好券商海外业务，新 规规范基金销售 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降 风 险 因 子 释 放 资 金 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 保险公司资负管理办法发布，明确监管指标和阈值 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  周观点：保险公司资负管理办法发布，明确监管指标和阈值 | | 12 月 5 日至今 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The biopharmaceutical investment and financing environment has shown significant recovery since the second half of 2025, with a total financing amount of USD 30.32 billion from July to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.90% [4] - The number of new drug IND applications stabilized in 2025, with approximately 1,897 applications from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.91% [4] - The demand for CRO services has shown a clear turning point, and the report continues to recommend opportunities in the innovative drug industry chain (CXO + research services) for 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.14% in the third week of December 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [7][14] - The offline pharmacy sector saw the highest increase, rising by 5.59%, while the chemical preparation sector had the largest decline at 2.1% [18][22] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the strong performance of leading CXO and research service companies, with many exceeding earnings expectations. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed have raised their earnings guidance for 2025 [5] - The report recommends a valuation switch opportunity for leading CXO and research service companies, given the continuous improvement in demand [5] Clinical Research Organizations (CRO) - There has been a notable improvement in orders for preclinical and clinical CROs, with expectations for significant improvements in financial statements for 2026 [6] - The report anticipates that the market demand will continue to focus on leading companies as the capacity of clinical CROs is expected to be streamlined [6] Monthly and Weekly Recommendations - The report recommends a monthly investment portfolio including companies such as Sanofi, Innovent Biologics, and others, focusing on innovative drug opportunities and valuation switch [8]

金融工程专题 2025 年 12 月 21 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 我们在专题报告《大单与小单资金流的 alpha 能力》中，对日度资金流信息进行 了标准化和动量中性化两步处理，构造得到了大单和小单资金流残差因子。日度 资金流残差因子选股效果优异，样本外选股效果相对稳健。本文参考日度资金流 残差因子的构造思路，以逐笔成交数据合成得到的分钟资金流信息为对象，提供 三类分钟资金流因子的构造方法。 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《大小单资金流为核心的综合行业轮 动方案—市场微观结构系列（23）》 -2024.1.28 《大小单资金流 alpha 探究 2.0：变量 精筛与高 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天 批价或止跌触底 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：内需政策赋能消费，白酒进入深度调整期 12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.0%，一级子行业排名第 11，跑 赢沪深 300 约 1.3pct，子行业中烘焙食品（+8.0%）、零食（+7.5%）、预加工食 品（+5.6% ...

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 2025 年北交所复盘：小巨人独立枝头，单项冠军稀缺性标的脱颖而出 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所 2025 年行情复盘，看好 2026 年北交所小巨人+单项冠军稀缺性标的 2025 年以来北证 50 中枢提升至 1400 点左右。复盘 2025 年行情来看，本轮北交 所的行情可以分为三个阶段：一季度快速拉升阶段、二三季度震荡上行阶段、四 季度回调阶段。其中以 2025 年 1 月 1 日的北证 50 和北证专精特新指数为基数计 算累计收益率。快速拉升阶段（2025 年 1 月 1 日 - 3 月 11 日），北证 50 指数从 1,037.81 点快速增长至 1,418.65 点，累计收益率达 36.70%，北证专精特新从 1683.33 点增长至 2421.50 点，累计收益率达 43.85%。震荡上行阶段（2025 年 4 月 7 日 - 9 月 5 日），北证 50 指数从 1044.07 点增长至 1647.01 点，累计收益率 达 5 ...

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 我国首批 L3 级自动驾驶准入获批，关注北证传感器及智慧交通链 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 我国首批 L3 级自动驾驶准入许可获批，关注北证智驾和车路云标的 2025 年 12 月 15 日，工业和信息化部正式公布我国首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型准入 许可。北交所内汽车相关标的共有 31 家，包含开特股份、林泰新材、苏轴股份、 大鹏工业、奥迪威、吉冈精密、骏创科技、巴兰仕、九菱科技、明阳科技、华原 股份、旺成科技、邦德股份、易实精密、捷众科技、三祥科技、威贸电子、建邦 科技、舜宇精工、华洋赛车、世昌股份、安徽凤凰、大地电气、同心传动、天铭 科技、浩淼科技、泰德股份、智新电子、华阳变速、德众汽车。智慧城市、智慧 交通方面则有标的 8 家，包含云星宇、路桥信息、汉鑫科技、广脉科技、天润科 技、科达自控、立方控股、微创光电。关注奥迪威、汉鑫科技等。奥迪威（920491.BJ） 自主研发的新一代 AKII 车载超声波传感器，满足智驾系统的升级和行泊一体技 术的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the leading carbon fiber companies are raising prices, with high-end product demand expected to recover first. Toray announced a price increase of 10%-20% for its TORAYCA™ carbon fiber products starting January 2026, while Jilin Chemical Fiber plans to raise prices by 5,000 RMB and 10,000 RMB per ton for its 12TK and 3K carbon fibers respectively, also effective January 2026 [1][10] - The current carbon fiber market shows a clear differentiation, with general and large tow products facing strong competition, while high-performance products have stabilized in price, with some specifications experiencing tight supply and demand [1][10] - The report highlights that the carbon fiber industry in China is expected to continue expanding, with production capacity projected to reach 135,500 tons by 2024, and a production volume of approximately 59,000 tons, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [16][17] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange has seen a weekly increase of 2.53%, with the metal new materials segment performing particularly well, rising by 11.31% [3][30] - Jilin Carbon Valley has established itself as a major player in the carbon fiber market, with a full range of products from small to large tow fibers, and has achieved stable large-scale production of high-quality products [2][27] - The report provides insights into the performance of individual stocks within the chemical new materials sector, with notable increases in stock prices for Tianli Composite (+41.42%), Jilin Carbon Valley (+9.17%), and others [34][37] Group 3 - The report includes a detailed analysis of chemical product price trends, highlighting fluctuations in prices for various materials such as MDI, TDI, and natural rubber, with MDI priced at 18,900 RMB per ton and TDI at 14,800 RMB per ton [38] - The carbon fiber demand distribution in China for 2023 shows that the top three application areas are sports and leisure (26.1%), wind power blades (24.6%), and aerospace and military (11.6%) [20][21] - The report emphasizes the strategic investments by companies like Hechang Polymer, which aims to enhance resource integration and business synergy through the introduction of strategic investors [4][66]

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 脑机接口政策强势赋能，关注北证医疗新质标的 北交所研究团队 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 脑机接口：政策强势赋能，技术产业化落地快速推进中 脑机接口作为十五五规划明确布局的未来产业，政策持续加码，2024 年首次被 列为未来产业，2025 年专项实施意见设定 2027 年核心技术突破、2030 年产业实 力跻身世界前列的目标；山西、河南、四川等多地积极跟进。作为神经科学、人 工智能与计算机多学科交叉的前沿技术，脑机接口上游涵盖脑电采集设备、芯片、 算法等软硬件供应，中游为采集平台与设备集成，下游广泛应用于医疗健康、军 事等领域。政策与技术的双重催化下，脑机接口市场规模持续扩容。2021 年全 球规模达 15 亿美元，预计 2027 年将达 33 亿美元；2024 年国内市场规模 32 亿 元，同比增长 18.81%，预计 2026 年将增至 46 亿元。北交所上市企业倍益康为 参与"植入式脑机接口四川省工程研究中心"联合申报企业之一。倍益康依托康复 设备研发经验构建多 ...