Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a "reverse involution" process in two stages, focusing on reasonable price operation and supply-side reform, driven by energy structure transformation and carbon neutrality policies [3][10][14] - The price of thermal coal is projected to experience four target stages, with coking coal prices expected to recover in relation to thermal coal [4][20] - The dual attributes of coal as both a cyclical and dividend stock make it a preferred asset for market allocation, with specific stocks identified for investment based on cyclical logic, dividend potential, diversification, and growth [5][9] Industry Innovation - The first stage of the reverse involution involves production reduction to stabilize coal prices, utilizing measures such as production checks and environmental regulations [10][14] - The second stage focuses on capacity reduction and structural adjustment to solidify the results of the first stage, enhancing the quality and concentration of production capacity [14][17] Price Judgement - The recovery of thermal coal prices is expected to follow a path that includes restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving a profit-sharing line for coal and power enterprises, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][20] - The target prices for coking coal are linked to the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with specific price targets set for different recovery stages [4][20] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by both cyclical and dividend attributes, making it a valuable asset in the current economic context [5][9] - Four main investment lines are identified: cyclical logic (e.g., Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源), dividend logic (e.g., 中国神华, 中煤能源), diversification (e.g., 神火股份, 电投能源), and growth logic (e.g., 新集能源, 广汇能源) [5][9] Domestic Supply - New coal production capacity is limited, with a significant focus on maintaining existing mines and enhancing operational efficiency rather than expanding capacity [26][27] - The coal production in Xinjiang is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that it may surpass that of Shaanxi by 2025 [27][32] Domestic Demand - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise due to economic recovery and seasonal peaks, with power plants maintaining high consumption levels [53][55] - Non-electric coal demand is expected to benefit from policies supporting coal chemical projects, with significant increases in coal consumption anticipated in the chemical, construction, and metallurgy sectors [61][62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Insights - The company reported FY2026Q2 revenue of $861.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%, and Non-GAAP operating profit of $107.85 million, up 67.2% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 12.52%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Non-GAAP net profit reached $135.8 million, reflecting an 82.7% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 15.77%, up 3.77 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Deferred revenue as of August 31, 2025, was $822.7 million, a 58.9% increase year-on-year [6] - The company has adjusted its FY2026-2027 profit forecasts downwards but introduced new profit estimates for FY2028, expecting Non-GAAP net profits of $240 million, $333 million, and $430 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding EPS of $0.40, $0.55, and $0.71 [6] Revenue and Profit Summary - FY2024A revenue was $1.49 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 46.2%, and FY2025A revenue was $2.25 billion, growing by 51.0% [9] - The projected revenues for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are $2.975 billion, $3.571 billion, and $4.122 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 20.0%, and 15.4% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2024A was $85 million, with a significant year-on-year decline of 415.5%, while FY2025A net profit was $150 million, reflecting a 75.2% increase [9] Business Segments - The company's learning services, both online and offline, have shown year-on-year growth, with offline teaching points increasing to 526 across 40 cities by February 28, 2025 [7] - The AI classroom initiative has introduced new courses tailored to different user groups, enhancing engagement and user satisfaction [7] - The integration of AI with smart hardware has become a core growth driver, with significant sales growth in learning devices and content solutions [8] Market Position - The company holds a 22% market share in the online learning device sector, ranking second among leading brands [8] - The online sales revenue for the company from June to August 2025 reached $1.861 billion, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [8]

2025年11月4日 目 录 CONTENTS 证券研究报告 人形机器人的2026："1-10"时刻开启 机械行业2026年度投资策略 姓名：孟鹏飞（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522060001 邮箱：mengpengfei@kysec.cn 1 2026：海内外共振，人形机器人即将开启"1-10"时刻 2 特斯拉：关注V3量产时间线，聚焦"供应链确定性"和"技术升级" 3 国产机器人：资本化提速，掘金"整机"和"生态链" 4 投资建议 5 风险提示 1.1 特斯拉迭代加速，V3定型渐近 我们对特斯拉机器人后续节奏展望： 图表：特斯拉为马斯克设计10年期薪酬计划（部分） 数据来源：每日经济新闻 1、12月中旬V3图纸有望冻结，同时推动供应链加速国内+海外产能建设 2、2026年2月底到3月量产版本定型并批量下单 3、2026年8月供应商确定，开启大规模制造准备 4、2026年3-8月硬件收敛，技术路线确定 5、2026年10月量产，机器人开始规模化走下产线 数据来源：特斯拉官网、凤凰网科技、 中国机器人网、人形机器人发布等、开源证券研究所 特斯拉人形机器人历次迭代 时间 2021.09 2022.04-2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential dual improvement in performance and valuation [6] - The basic chemical sector has shown revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant profitability in sub-sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.46%, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry index underperformed by 21.06% [14] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of CNY 17,645.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of CNY 1,097.5 billion, up 6.3% [4][35] Basic Chemicals - The basic chemical sector's net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth, with capital expenditures continuing to decline year-on-year [4][36] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,051.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit reached CNY 366.4 billion, up 16.8% [4][35] Sub-sector Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, sub-sectors such as pesticides, adhesives, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers saw significant year-on-year net profit growth [4][37] - The top ten sub-sectors by net profit growth included pesticides (174%) and fluorochemicals, with substantial increases in profitability observed [38]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market performed poorly in October 2025, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.5% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 8.6% [5] - The average daily trading volume in October was HKD 211.3 billion, a decrease of 16.6% compared to September 2025 [5] - Value sectors outperformed growth sectors, with coal, oil and petrochemicals, electricity, and utilities leading the gains [5] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound capital saw a total net inflow of HKD 925 billion in October 2025, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 1.26 trillion for the year, marking a 156% increase compared to 2024 [6] - The market value proportions of southbound funds, foreign capital, domestic capital, and Hong Kong capital as of October 28, 2025, were 21.49%, 58.86%, 12.66%, and 6.99% respectively [6] Group 3: Industry Insights Consumer Goods - The oral care market in China reached a retail scale of CNY 30.2 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 0.2% year-on-year [16] - The sanitary napkin market is projected to grow to CNY 105 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [17] - The global wet wipes market is expected to reach USD 18.4 billion in 2024, growing at 2.7% year-on-year [17] Military Industry - The demand for titanium materials in aerospace and naval applications is expected to reach 49,000 tons by 2027 [22] - The titanium material usage in the shipbuilding sector is projected to grow significantly, driven by national strategies for marine development [24] - Beneficiary stocks in the titanium sector include BaoTi Co., West Superconducting, and West Materials [26] Automotive Industry - SAIC Group reported a revenue of CNY 468.99 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [31] - The company’s Q3 sales volume reached 1.1407 million vehicles, reflecting a 38.7% increase year-on-year [32] - The company is focusing on enhancing decision-making efficiency and optimizing resource allocation through the establishment of a new passenger vehicle division [33] Nonferrous Metals - Yun Aluminum Co. achieved a revenue of CNY 44.072 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 12.47% [35] - The company’s net profit for Q3 was CNY 1.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.31% [35] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio, enhancing investor confidence [38] Semiconductor Testing - The company reported a revenue of CNY 737 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.01% [40] - The company has successfully developed the first domestic open X-ray source, marking a significant advancement in high-end detection equipment [41] - The acquisition of SSTI is expected to enhance the company's performance in the high-end semiconductor testing equipment sector [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 9.0% for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a total revenue of 468.99 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.3% to 8.101 billion yuan [4][5] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 169.40 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. However, the net profit for Q3 was 2.083 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 30.4% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 10.72 billion yuan (+8.3%), 13.68 billion yuan (+14.9%), and 17.20 billion yuan (+29.9%) respectively [4][5] Sales Performance - The company sold 1.1407 million vehicles in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.0%. The passenger vehicle segment saw a sales increase of 56.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The sales of the company's joint venture brands remained stable, with SAIC Volkswagen showing a significant year-on-year increase of 154.2% due to a low base effect [5][6] Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 186.45 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 16.22 yuan [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 17.4, 13.6, and 10.8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][9] Strategic Developments - The company has established a new passenger vehicle segment aimed at improving decision-making efficiency and resource allocation. It has also seen significant growth in its self-owned brands, with a 29.2% increase in sales for the first nine months of 2025 [6][7] - The company is actively pursuing advanced technologies, including solid-state batteries and intelligent vehicle solutions, with several new electric models set to launch, which are expected to drive future sales growth [6][7]

- The report introduces the "Hong Kong Multi-Factor Model," which includes four categories of factors: technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations. These factors are applied to Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks and have demonstrated excellent performance in group analysis[36][41] - The "Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 20 Portfolio" is constructed monthly by selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on the multi-factor model. The portfolio is equally weighted, and the benchmark index is the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI)[38] - The construction process of the "Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 20 Portfolio" involves evaluating stocks using the multi-factor model, ranking them based on their scores, and selecting the top 20 stocks for equal-weighted allocation[38] - The report evaluates the "Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 20 Portfolio" positively, noting its strong historical performance with an annualized excess return of 12.9% and an excess return volatility ratio of 1.0 over the period from January 2015 to October 2025[38][40] - The October 2025 performance of the "Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 20 Portfolio" showed a return of -3.8%, compared to the benchmark index return of -3.6%, resulting in an excess return of -0.1%[38] - The historical performance metrics of the "Hong Kong Stock Connect Preferred 20 Portfolio" include an annualized excess return of 12.9%, annualized excess volatility of 13.5%, excess return volatility ratio of 1.0, and maximum drawdown of 18.2% over the period from January 2015 to October 2025[39][40]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: "Outperform" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 293 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 48 million yuan, up 25.93% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company reached 50 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 55.28% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is actively expanding both domestic and international markets, focusing on high-end applications of amino acids in fields such as microelectronics cleaning, biopharmaceuticals, and special medical foods. This strategy aims to increase market share and strengthen its competitive position [4][5] - The company has completed its fundraising project for the "High-end High Value-added Key Series Amino Acid Industrialization Construction Project," which is expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 402 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 73 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 69.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 31.2% in 2025, with a net margin of 18.1%. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 10.1% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.9 times [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain profitability due to high aluminum prices, and the continuous increase in dividends highlights its value [1][4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [4][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted to 6.068 billion, 7.538 billion, and 8.592 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 37.5%, 24.2%, and 14.0% respectively [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.31% [4][5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 515.7 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, while the average price of alumina rose by 107.5 yuan/ton [5] - The company’s gross profit margin slightly decreased due to rising alumina prices, but the outlook for Q4 2025 is positive with expected profit growth driven by high aluminum prices and declining alumina costs [5] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 1.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing approximately 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase from 32.23% in 2024 [6] Financial Metrics and Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.75, 2.17, and 2.48 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.9, 11.2, and 9.8 [4][7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 42.669 billion yuan in 2023 to 59.157 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.1% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated continuous high growth in performance, with a significant increase in orders driven by favorable conditions in downstream industries such as lithium batteries and electronic semiconductors [2] - The company has successfully developed and mass-produced the first domestic open tube X-ray equipment, which enhances its capabilities in high-end semiconductor testing and reduces reliance on imports [3] - The company is advancing its global M&A strategy, having acquired SSTI, a leader in high-end semiconductor fault analysis equipment, which is expected to enhance its performance and expand its business in high-end semiconductor testing [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 737 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125 million yuan, up 18.83% [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 178 million, 317 million, and 462 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08, 1.91, and 2.79 yuan [2] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.178 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.3% [6] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its core components, AI, and testing equipment capabilities, including a strategic partnership with Silan Technology to develop specialized computing chips for industrial testing [3] - The acquisition of SSTI is expected to contribute an average after-tax profit of no less than 62.7 million yuan from 2026 to 2028, further solidifying the company's position in the high-end semiconductor testing market [4]