Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry index rose by 6.66% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.63 percentage points, ranking first among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown promising initial results, with duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day and a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods [4][25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment and the potential for high-growth sectors within the retail space, particularly in jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66% [6][15] - The supermarket sector saw the highest weekly increase of 14.18%, while the commercial property sector led with a year-to-date increase of 22.51% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on "one line open, two lines controlled, and free trade within the island" [4][25] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods increased from 21% to 74%, covering approximately 6,600 items, which is expected to reduce import tax burdens by about 20% for related enterprises [26][25] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [7][30] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [7][30] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic cosmetics brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovations, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][31] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical aesthetics product manufacturers and leading chain medical institutions, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [7][31] Company-Specific Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.986 billion HKD for FY2026H1, with a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1% [37] - Lao Pu Gold achieved a revenue of 12.354 billion HKD for FY2025H1, marking a significant increase of 250.9% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 285.8% [36] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year, with net profit showing a significant loss [44]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the potential recovery in fiber optic cable prices driven by increased demand from AI applications and the acceleration of domestic AI bidding processes [6][19] - The AI ecosystem is continuously evolving, with significant advancements in models and infrastructure, particularly from major players like ByteDance and Google [15][16] - The demand for fiber optic cables is expected to rise due to the increasing requirements for internal network connectivity in AI model training and application deployment [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - The opening of the Volcano Engine FORCE conference showcased advancements in AI agent technology and cloud-native architecture [13] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating rapid industry adoption [15] - Google is enhancing its AI ecosystem, with new TPU chips expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions [16] - Companies are increasingly interested in renting TPU chips, which will further stimulate ASIC demand [17] - AI is driving the demand for fiber optic cables, with prices expected to recover [18] - Investment recommendations focus on key sectors such as optical networks, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [19] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of October 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.758 million, with a net increase of 507,000 from the end of 2024 [28] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.184 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.99% [28] - The shipment of 5G mobile phones in September 2025 was 24.106 million units, representing an 8.02% year-on-year increase [28] 3. Operator Performance - The revenue from cloud services for major operators showed strong growth, with China Mobile's cloud revenue reaching 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [47] - China Telecom's cloud revenue for the first half of 2025 was 57.3 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase [47] - The ARPU values for major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [47][52]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 政府性基金支出当月同比转正 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 11 月财政数据，1-11 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增 长 0.8%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.4%（+2.0%）；1-11 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 4.9%（-2.8%），支出同比增长 13.7%（+15.4%）。 11 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入延续正增，非税收入降幅收窄。11 月税收收入同比增长 2.8%（+8.6%）， 虽增幅有所回落，但已连续 8 个月保持正增长，11 月企业所得税与个人所得税 回落或为当月税收收入增幅放缓的主要原因。11 月证券交易印花税同比增长 2.3%，增幅在 11 月权益市场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下增幅放缓。 在投资于物回报率下降的情况，十五五规划建议提出的坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧 ...

宏观经济点评 核心服务带动美国通胀超预期下行 ——美国 11 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 11 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，核心 CPI 同比上升 2.6%，均不及市场预期。 通胀全面下行，核心服务通胀是重要驱动因素 1. 总体通胀与核心通胀均出现下行，但 10 月数据缺失。由于美国政府前期关 门，10 月 CPI 的大部分数据、11 月 CPI 数据中的环比项缺失。美国 11 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，较 9 月下降 0.3 个百分点；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，较 9 月下 降 0.4 个百分点，且两项数据均不及市场预期。总的看，美国通胀出现了较为 明显的下行，虽无法通过环比数据观察到具体的下行斜率，但通胀的风险或有 实质性的下降。往后看，由于 2024 年 12 月的基数相对较高，通胀水平或将继 续走低， ...

北交所信息更新 一致魔芋（920273.BJ） 2025 年 12 月 19 日 投资评级：增持（下调） | 日期 | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 34.61 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 84.00/19.70 | | 总市值(亿元) | 35.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.68 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 243.33 | 北交所研究团队 风险提示：产品较单一风险、原材料价格波动风险、宏观经济环境变化风险。 | 财务摘要和估值指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 479 | 617 | 798 | 983 | 1,227 | | YOY(%) | 7.0 | 28.8 | 29.4 | 23.3 | 24.8 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 53 | 87 | 90 ...

开源晨会 1219 ——晨会纪要 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 2025 年 12 月 19 日 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 行业公司 | | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.972 | 【通信】有望复苏的光纤光缆和超预期的液冷——行业点评报告-20251218 | | 煤炭 | 1.895 | 月央行信贷收支表要点 【银行】存款搬家股市放缓，中小行储蓄回流大行——11 | | 石油石化 | 1.253 | 解读-20251218 | | 国防军工 | 0.903 | 【非银金融：中金公司(03908.HK)】看好协同效应，综合实力向国际一流投行迈 | | 轻工制造 | 0.856 | 进——中金公司换股吸收东兴证券、信达证券预案点评-20251218 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | -2.218 | | 通信 | -1.577 | | 电子 | -1.5 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement of Google's AI ecosystem, with the release of TPUv7 Ironwood and Gemini 3 series models, which are expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions and enhance market expansion [3][4] - There is a strong demand for TPU, with companies like Anthropic and Meta planning to rent TPU chips from Google, indicating a significant market opportunity [4] - The AI sector is expected to boost the demand for optical fibers and cables, leading to a potential price recovery in this segment [5] - The report emphasizes three core investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power," while also highlighting opportunities in satellite and edge AI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with a focus on the advancements in AI technology and its implications for related sectors [1] Market Trends - The demand for TPU is increasing, with notable partnerships and rental agreements being established, which will likely enhance ASIC demand [4] - The AI-driven growth is expected to elevate the usage of optical fibers and cables, particularly in data center interconnects and metropolitan area networks [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Invec (leader in liquid cooling solutions), with beneficiaries such as Feilong Co., Dayuan Pump Industry, Lingyun Co., and others in the optical fiber and cable sector [4][5][6]

2025 年 12 月 18 日 政府性基金支出大幅回暖 宏观研究团队 观 研 究 宏 观 经 济 点 评 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 相关研究报告 《美联储继续降息紧迫性并不高—美 国 11 月非农就业数据点评》 -2025.12.17 《黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点—宏 观经济专题》-2025.12.16 《需求仍偏弱，制造业和基建低位企 稳—兼评 11 月经济数据》-2025.12.16 ——宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） shenmeichen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：11 月，全国一般公共预算收入 14026 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 22713 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 5801 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 11232 亿元。 税收增长边际放缓；财政支出力度回升，民生类支出有待加码 1、财政收入边际降速，税收乏力、非税收入小幅回升。11 月狭义财政收入 14026 亿元，同比下降 0.02%，增速边际放缓。1-11 月公共财政收入累计增速持平 0.8%。 税收收入增速边际走弱，11 月税收收入录得 11450 亿元，同比增长 2.8%（前值 ...

银行 存款搬家股市放缓，中小行储蓄回流大行 2025 年 12 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《存款非银化放缓，关注 2026Q1 大 行资负缺口压力—11 月金融数据点 评》-2025.12.13 《测算：BCBS 调整利率冲击幅度对Δ EVE 的影响 — 行业点评报告》 -2025.12.10 《大行 ΔEVE 指标测算及承接债券 能力评估—行业深度报告》-2025.12.8 ——11 月央行信贷收支表要点解读 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 吴文鑫（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | wuwenxin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524060002 | wuwenxin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524060002 负债端：非银存款增长放缓，或反映股市脱媒减弱，定存到期持续流入理财 11 月大型银行非银存款下降 8 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 美国公布 11 月非农就业数据。新增非农就业 6.4 万，失业率为 4.6%，均高于市场 预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.5%，略低于市场预期。虽然 11 月非农就业数据显示 当前美国就业市场可能仍在缓慢向下，但结合美联储 12 月 FOMC 的表态以及近 期美联储官员们的发言来看，美联储短期内降息的可能性并不高。 开源晨会 1218 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 5.066 | | 有色金属 | 3.03 | | 电子 | 2.48 | | 基础化工 | 2.15 | | 电力设备 | 2.087 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.543 | | 国防军工 | -0.197 | | 煤炭 | -0.115 | | 房地产 | ...