Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is gradually dissipating, and innovation coupled with a rebound in sales may drive the valuation recovery of the supply chain [6] - Recent agreements between the US and Vietnam regarding tariffs suggest that negotiations between the US and China may yield favorable results soon [5][6] - Apple's upcoming product launches, including foldable iPhones and AI glasses, are expected to enhance long-term growth prospects for the company [5][6] Summary by Sections Tariff Agreements - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods from other countries transiting through Vietnam [5] - This agreement indicates a potential positive outcome for US-China tariff negotiations [5][6] Apple Product Innovations - Apple's foldable iPhone project is in the P1 prototype development stage, with expectations for a market launch in the second half of 2026 [5] - The company is also planning to release AI smart glasses by the end of 2026, which will focus on photography, music, and voice-based AI interaction [5] - iPhone sales in China are projected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the first positive growth since Q2 2023 [5] Supply Chain Valuation - The supply chain sector has seen a rebound after significant declines due to tariff concerns and lower-than-expected upgrades in Apple's AI capabilities [6] - The report suggests focusing on core supply chain manufacturers and companies with high value elasticity in new product categories like foldable screens and AI glasses [6] - Beneficiary stocks include Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, Lens Technology, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong market recognition of AIDC, with both WanGuo and RunZe REITs receiving over 100 times subscription rates, indicating high investor interest [5][6][14] - Century Internet has raised its performance guidance for the fiscal year 2025, suggesting accelerated development in the domestic AIDC industry chain [7][18] - The report emphasizes the potential of the AIDC computing power industry chain, satellite internet, and 6G as key investment directions [8][19] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - WanGuo and RunZe REITs have achieved subscription multiples of 166.10 and 167.06 times respectively, with total fundraising expected to reach 24 billion and 45 billion yuan [5][6][15][16] - Century Internet has adjusted its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025 from 9.1-9.3 billion yuan to 9.15-9.35 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11-13% [7][18] 2. Market Review - The communication index decreased by 0.10% during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, ranking third among TMT sectors [27] 3. Communication Data Tracking - As of May 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.486 million, with a net increase of 235,000 stations compared to the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.098 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [29] 4. Recommended Investment Targets - AIDC Infrastructure: Recommended stocks include YingweiKe, New Idea Network Group, and Baoxin Software; Beneficiary stocks include Guanghuan New Network and WanGuo Data [20] - IT Equipment: Recommended stocks include ZTE and Unisplendour; Beneficiary stocks include Inspur Information and Huakong Technology [21] - Network Equipment: Recommended stocks include Unisplendour and ZTE; Beneficiary stocks include Ruijie Networks and Yingtong Technology [22] - Cloud Computing: Beneficiary stocks include China Mobile, China Telecom, and Alibaba [25] - AI Applications: Beneficiary stocks include Guanghe Tong and Yiyuan Communication [26]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Analyst 50 Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The portfolio is designed to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging the superior performance of newly recommended stocks and the effectiveness of the earnings surprise factor in stock selection[25][27][34] **Construction Process**: 1. Select newly recommended stocks from the monthly broker top 10 stock pool based on whether they are repeated from the previous month[25] 2. Calculate the earnings surprise factor (SUE) for each stock in the newly recommended stock pool, and select the top 50 stocks based on SUE values. Initial weights are assigned based on the number of broker recommendations[25] 3. Adjust the portfolio's industry weights proportionally to match the latest CSI 500 index industry weight distribution. Within each industry, stock weights are adjusted proportionally to finalize the Analyst 50 Portfolio[25] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The portfolio dynamically captures market trends and high-volatility stocks, demonstrating strong adaptability and aggressiveness[34] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Earnings Surprise (SUE) **Construction Idea**: Measure the degree to which actual financial report values exceed analyst forecast values to identify stocks with potential for outperformance[22][23] **Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly forecast and actual values to calculate the SUE factor[26] 2. Integrate earnings previews, quick reports, and regular reports, and forward-fill factor values during financial report gaps[23] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong differentiation in stock performance, especially in newly recommended stocks, where the information absorption is slower compared to repeated stocks[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Analyst 50 Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 14.9% - Annualized excess return over CSI 500: 15.6% - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58[27][29][20] Factor Backtesting Results - **Earnings Surprise (SUE)**: - Newly recommended stocks: - Annualized return: 14.1% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58 - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Repeated stocks: - Annualized return: 8.8% - Annualized volatility: 23.3% - Sharpe ratio: 0.38 - Maximum drawdown: 45.0%[20][19][23]

Group 1 - The core concept of "Deep Sea Technology" is the intersection of policy certainty under "bottom line thinking," focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and international trade as key response strategies to external shocks [4][13][14] - The introduction of "Deep Sea Technology" solidifies the policy status of the marine economy, marking a shift from supplementary industries to a core component of national strategic emerging industries, indicating a new phase in the top-level design of China's marine economy [5][18] - The "Deep Sea Technology" industry chain is complex and interdisciplinary, with core technologies categorized as "three deep" technologies: deep diving, deep drilling, and deep networking [6][26] Group 2 - The upstream of the deep sea technology industry chain includes raw materials and components, requiring high-pressure resistance and corrosion resistance, while the midstream focuses on industrialization capabilities in deep sea detection, equipment manufacturing, and system integration [6][26] - The downstream includes mature sectors like deep sea oil and gas development, while emerging areas such as natural gas hydrate commercialization and marine renewable energy are in early stages, indicating future growth potential [32] - The policy framework for deep sea technology has established a dual-driven development model at both national and local levels, with significant initiatives from various provinces to enhance marine industry capabilities [22][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing improvement in the glass fiber industry due to the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [3] - The glass fiber industry's new capacity growth is slowing down, with production capacity expected to reach 930,000 tons in 2025 and 940,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a controlled growth rate [4] - The price of alkali-free yarn has stabilized, with significant price increases noted compared to previous years, indicating a recovery in market conditions [4] - The development of AI servers is expected to drive demand for high-end electronic fabrics, with PCB industry growth benefiting glass fiber products [5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The glass fiber industry is experiencing a slowdown in new capacity growth, with a production capacity increase of only 10,000 tons expected for 2025-2026 [4] - The market price for alkali-free yarn has shown a notable increase, with prices for various products rising significantly compared to previous years [4] Market Opportunities - The AI server market is projected to grow, with global server shipments expected to reach 13 million units in 2025, representing a 10% year-on-year increase [5] - The glass fiber fabric is anticipated to benefit from the rapid development of the PCB industry, as it constitutes a significant portion of the overall cost structure [5] Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include China Jushi, with other beneficiaries identified as China National Materials, International Composites, Honghe Technology, Shandong Glass Fiber, and Changhai Co., Ltd. [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Short-term increased investment in flash sales may pressure profits, but long-term ecosystem synergy is promising [1] - The company is expected to enhance its cloud business growth through active investment in AI infrastructure, which may offset some capital expenditure impacts [1] - The forecast for adjusted net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 has been revised down to 163.1 billion and 182.8 billion respectively, with a new FY2028 forecast of 202.8 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 12.1%, and 10.9% [1][4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2024A revenue is 941.168 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% - FY2025A revenue is projected at 996.347 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% - FY2026E revenue is expected to reach 1,102.080 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2024A is 157.479 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4% - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025A is projected at 158.122 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% - The diluted EPS for FY2026E is expected to be 8.8, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 11.0 [8]

- The June 2025 performance of stock-oriented investment advisory products outperformed the CSI 300 index, with absolute average returns of 3.47% for stock-oriented products, 1.90% for mixed stock-bond products, 0.79% for fixed-income plus products, and 0.28% for pure bond products [3][11][13] - Among stock-oriented investment advisory products, sector rotation strategies performed the best in June 2025, achieving an absolute return of 4.41%, followed by index-driven strategies at 3.50%, actively selected strategies at 3.41%, and macro-driven strategies at 2.71% [13][17][18] - For pure bond investment advisory products, June 2025 saw a shift from money market funds (-1.09%) and secondary mixed bond funds (-1.44%) to short-term pure bonds (+1.51%) and medium-to-long-term pure bonds (+1.63%) [27][28][30] - Fixed-income plus investment advisory products increased allocations to medium-to-long-term pure bonds (+3.15%) and primary mixed bond funds (+1.85%), while reducing allocations to flexible allocation funds (-5.60%) and money market funds (-0.99%) [27][28][30] - The duration of pure bond investment advisory products decreased by an average of 0.05 years in June 2025, while fixed-income plus products increased their duration by an average of 0.11 years [30][31] - Stock-bond mixed investment advisory products increased allocations to active equity funds (+2.06%) and flexible allocation funds (+1.19%), while reducing allocations to index funds (-2.75%) [33][35] - Stock-oriented investment advisory products reduced allocations to QDII funds (-1.49%) and increased allocations to flexible allocation funds (+1.54%) [33][35] - Sector allocation changes in June 2025 included increased exposure to non-ferrous metals (+1.29%) and pharmaceuticals (+1.16%), while reducing exposure to real estate (-1.22%) and electronics (-0.40%) [35][36][38] - Dividend-focused funds saw an increase in allocation, with the average proportion rising from 5.17% to 5.38% in June 2025, reflecting optimism about domestic economic recovery [37][39][40] - Micro-cap stock allocations slightly increased from 5.48% to 5.52%, while small-cap stock allocations decreased from 10.81% to 10.79% in June 2025 [41][42] - Hot sector allocations showed a decrease in the average proportion of ChiNext stocks from 6.75% to 6.69% and a slight decrease in STAR Market stocks from 6.94% to 6.92% in June 2025 [43][46][48] - Hong Kong stock allocations increased, with the average proportion rising from 8.39% to 9.37% in June 2025 [49][52] - QDII and macro-driven investment advisory products in June 2025 increased allocations to silver funds (+4.0%), global bonds (+2.8%), and oil and gas funds (+0.6%), while reducing allocations to Hong Kong stocks (-5.3%) and Vietnam funds (-4.4%) [49][50][54]

宏观研究团队 ——美国 6 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 6 月非农就业数据。其中新增非农就业 14.7 万，超市场预期。 失业率为 4.1%，平均时薪同比增长 3.7%，低于市场预期。 宏观经济点评 政府就业支撑美国 6 月非农再超预期 1. 新增非农就业再超市场预期，且前值经历小幅上修 6 月美国新增非农就业 14.7 万人，较 5 月份初值（13.9 万）回升，且大幅高于 市场预期的 10.6 万。4 月、5 月新增非农就业累计上修 1.6 万，为 2025 年首 次。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就业 14.97 万人，亦出现上行。结构上看， 政府就业贡献了 6 月新增非农就业的将近 50%，主要是州和地方政府，较为罕 见。私人部门方面，建筑业、零售业新增就业较 5 月上升较多。总体看，6 月 非农数据显示当前美国劳动力市场韧性较为明显，但考虑到 6 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index have shown a decline of 16% over the past year, indicating a challenging market environment [2] - The top five performing industries yesterday included Electronics (+1.691%), Electric Equipment (+1.382%), and Pharmaceutical Biology (+1.351%) [3] - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were Coal (-1.160%), Transportation (-0.282%), and Steel (-0.133%) [4] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The central bank's bond-buying actions are seen as a preparation for reinitiating bond purchases, with significant activity starting on May 12, 2025 [5][14] - The current yield spread between 2-year government bonds and 2-year policy bonds is considered reasonable, potentially influenced by the central bank's bond-buying methods [15] - The central bank's bond-buying is primarily viewed as a long-term channel for basic currency injection, with historical shifts in monetary policy tools indicating a move towards bond transactions [7][8] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - TaoTao Vehicle (301345.SZ) - The company is expected to report a net profit of 2.24 to 2.74 billion yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71% to 109% [5][19] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.65 billion, 8.26 billion, and 10.08 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 6.12, 7.60, and 9.28 yuan [5][19] - The company is expanding into the robotics and intelligent product sectors, with a strategic partnership announced for humanoid robots, indicating a focus on innovation and market growth [21][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading supplier of insulation fiber materials, specializing in products for ultra-high voltage applications, and is well-positioned to benefit from domestic substitution and high growth in the new energy sector [3][4]. - The insulation materials market in China has shown consistent growth, increasing from CNY 654.90 billion in 2018 to CNY 733.6 billion in 2022, representing a growth rate of 12.02% [4][19]. - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with projected revenues of CNY 578 million in 2024 and net profits of CNY 116 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 135.1% [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in insulation fiber materials and products used in power transmission systems, electrified railways, and military equipment, and is one of the few in China capable of producing insulation materials for 750kV and above [3][14]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the insulation fiber materials sector, with a comprehensive product range covering all voltage levels [3][13]. Industry Context - The insulation materials industry is classified as a strategic emerging industry in China, with significant government support and policy backing, particularly in the context of the country's energy transition and infrastructure investment [4][59]. - The demand for insulation materials is closely linked to the growth of the power sector, with substantial investments in power generation and transmission expected to drive market growth [24][26]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 420 million in 2023 to CNY 578 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% [5][3]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.1% in 2023 to 33.5% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [5][3]. Market Opportunities - The company is positioned to capitalize on the increasing domestic demand for insulation materials, particularly in the context of the national strategy for high-voltage power grid construction and renewable energy development [26][48]. - The growth of the transformer and motor sectors, driven by energy efficiency upgrades and new energy applications, presents additional opportunities for the company [51][35].