Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The central bank's bond - buying is mainly a long - term base money injection channel, and the restart of bond - buying may only be a matter of time [2][3] - The impact of the central bank's bond - buying on the bond market and liquidity is neutral [3][4] - The 2024 central bank's bond - buying had a significant impact on short - term treasury bonds, possibly due to the bond - buying method and market expectations [5][6] - The bond - buying method may change in 2025, and its positive impact on the bond market is relatively limited. If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond yields are expected to rise [7] Summary by Related Content Central Bank's Bond - Buying as a Long - term Base Money Injection Channel - In 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to gradually increase treasury bond trading in central bank open - market operations. In August 2024, the central bank officially carried out treasury bond trading operations [2] - The central bank's positioning for treasury bond trading is to enrich the base money injection channel and communicate with the market on long - term treasury bond yields. In practice, it mainly serves as a money injection channel [2] - Historically, the long - term base money injection channels of the central bank have evolved from foreign exchange reserves to reserve requirement ratio cuts and then to treasury bond trading. With limited room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts, treasury bond trading is a mature alternative [2] Impact of Central Bank's Bond - Buying on the Bond Market and Liquidity - Currently, the central bank's long - term base money injection channels are reserve requirement ratio cuts and treasury bond trading. The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts on the bond market and liquidity is neutral as it both increases money supply and may be used to fill the money gap and followed by liquidity recycling [3] - The central bank's treasury bond trading is theoretically similar to reserve requirement ratio cuts, and its impact on the bond market and liquidity is also neutral. For example, the Bank of Japan's regular treasury bond purchases led to a significant increase in Japanese bond yields [3][4] Impact of the 2024 Central Bank's Bond - Buying - In 2024, the central bank's bond - buying significantly affected short - term treasury bonds. The 2 - year China Development Bank bond - 2 - year treasury bond spread rose to nearly 40BP during the bond - buying period from August to December 2024, indicating a significant decline in 2 - year treasury bond yields [5] - Possible reasons include the bond - buying method (banks buying in the secondary market and then the central bank buying from them, with banks not being price - sensitive) and market expectations of loose monetary policy [6] Changes in Bond - Buying Method in 2025 and Its Impact on the Bond Market - On May 12, 2025, banks started buying treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, possibly in preparation for the central bank to restart bond - buying. The current 2 - year China Development Bank bond - 2 - year treasury bond spread is within a reasonable range, which may be related to the change in banks' bond - buying method [7] - The central bank's announcement of bond - buying may be subject to policy guidance or significant increases in bond yields. The positive impact on the bond market is limited, and if the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond yields are expected to rise [7]

晨 会 纪 开源晨会 0703 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 2025 年 07 月 03 日 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 3.375 | | 煤炭 | 1.985 | | 建筑材料 | 1.421 | | 农林牧渔 | 0.837 | | 银行 | 0.754 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 电子 | -2.011 | | 通信 | -1.963 | | 国防军工 | -1.938 | | 计算机 | -1.640 | | 美容护理 | -1.091 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【金融工程】港股量化：南下资金累计流入达 2024 年 91%，7 月增配成长——金 融工程定期-20250702 港股市场 6 月概览：港股震荡上行，有色、电子涨幅亮眼。 港 ...

- Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model selects the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on four types of factors (technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations) from the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks and constructs an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI) as the benchmark. The specific construction process involves selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on the four types of factors and constructing an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month[3][37][39]; Model Evaluation: The model has shown excellent performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Technical Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Technical factors are constructed based on the price and volume data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various technical indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to evaluate the stock's price trend and momentum[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Technical factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Capital Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Capital factors are constructed based on the capital flow data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating the net capital inflow and outflow of stocks to evaluate the stock's capital flow trend[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Capital factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Fundamental Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Fundamental factors are constructed based on the financial data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various financial ratios such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and total market value to evaluate the stock's financial health and valuation[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Fundamental factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Analyst Expectation Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Analyst expectation factors are constructed based on the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves collecting and analyzing the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks to evaluate the stock's future performance expectations[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Analyst expectation factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] Model Backtest Results - Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio, Annualized Excess Return: 13.3%, Excess Return Volatility Ratio: 1.0[4][40][41] Factor Backtest Results - Southbound Capital, Average Return: 25.7%[32][36] - Foreign Capital, Average Return: 13.5%[32][36] - Domestic Capital, Average Return: 14.0%[32][36] - Hong Kong Capital and Others, Average Return: 10.2%[32][36]

光伏设备 2025 年 07 月 02 日 官媒&高层接连发声，供给侧改革有望深化 ——行业点评报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 光伏设备 沪深300 事件：据新华社，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会 主任习近平 7 月 1 日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，会议强调： 会议主旨高度契合 6 月 29 日人民日报头版文章 人民日报 6 月 29 日头版推出金社平文章《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发 展》指出，"要深化要素市场化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分割和'内卷 式'竞争。"政府有引导、行业有自律、企业有行动，综合整治"内卷式"竞争就能 稳步推进、见到成效。本次中央财经委员会的会议主旨高度契合人民日报文章， 表明高层对光伏困境认知清晰，破除内卷、推动行业健康发展的决心明确，后续 光伏供给侧结构性改革力度有望加强。 光伏供给侧改革有望深化 相关研究报告 《破除光伏"内卷式"竞争，关注行 业贝塔修复 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.7.1 殷晟 ...

北交所信息更新 骑士乳业（832786.BJ） 上游承压下游亮眼，一体化布局静待价值释放 2025 年 07 月 02 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/7/1 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 11.80 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 14.96/4.24 | | 总市值(亿元) | 24.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 16.78 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.09 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.42 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 1,074.11 | 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 2024 年营收 12.97 亿元，同比+3%，扣非净利润 3917 万元，同比-46% 公司发布 2024 年报与 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司营收 12.97 亿元，同比增长 3.22%，归母净利润-769.51 万元，同比转亏，扣非净利润 3916.60 万元，同比下 滑 45.73%；2025Q1 公司营收 3.70 亿元，同比增长 55.88%，归母净利润 1065.2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched a stock option incentive plan aimed at boosting the sales of its HIV drugs, with specific performance targets set for different groups of employees. The plan is designed to be comprehensive and operationally feasible [4] - The sales of HIV drugs have shown significant growth, with Q1 2025 sales reaching 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.64%, marking a historical high for the company [5] - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to -0.02 billion, 0.44 billion, and 0.88 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from 411.4 million yuan in 2023 to 1,237 million yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 76.4% in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 72.9% in 2025 and 81.2% by 2027 [7] - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.1 in 2023 to 5.0 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as revenues grow [7]

| 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | --- | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 他 研 究 开源晨会 0702 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.601 | | 医药生物 | 1.804 | | 银行 | 1.535 | | 有色金属 | 1.489 | | 公用事业 | 1.046 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.182 | | 商贸零售 | -0.788 | | 通信 | -0.452 | | 传媒 | -0.376 | | 电力设备 | -0.373 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"两重"接力支撑 PMI，预计 Q2 GDP 约 5.2%——兼评 6 月 PM ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end brands and emerging effective brands in the beauty and medical aesthetics sectors, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, which saw a total e-commerce sales of 8,556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [8][36] - The medical aesthetics market is expected to grow significantly with the approval of new products, such as the first compliant lipolytic injection in China, which is projected to expand the market from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 805 million yuan by 2025 [31][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The beauty care index rose by 2.55% in May 2025, ranking 14th among all primary industries, underperforming the overall market [16] - In May, the top performers in the medical aesthetics sector included Kedi-B (+61.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+36.1%), and East China Pharmaceutical (+15.1%) [21][26] - In the cosmetics sector, the leading companies were Lafang Jiahua (+28.0%), Shuiyang Co. (+24.5%), and Babi Co. (+19.1%) [27][29] Medical Aesthetics - The approval of Mai Nuo Wei's "Xian Su" injection marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic lipolytic market, with a projected market size increase to 8.05 billion yuan by 2025 [31][32] - The exit of CPE as a major shareholder in Meili Tianyuan is expected to optimize the company's governance structure and enhance its market position [32] Cosmetics - The 618 shopping festival saw a total GMV of 659.09 billion yuan in the beauty category, with international high-end brands showing resilience and growth due to strong brand effects [8][41] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu led the sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, with significant growth rates for new brands [44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong domestic beauty brands and those benefiting from high-growth segments, highlighting companies like Shangmei Co., Maogeping, and Pechoin as key investment opportunities [47][48] - In the medical aesthetics sector, companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B are recommended for their potential growth driven by new product launches and market expansion [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards "emotional consumption" in the beauty sector, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer aesthetic and therapeutic benefits [48] - The overall market is expected to continue evolving with new product introductions and innovative marketing strategies as the industry enters a seasonal transition [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost advantages in vehicle manufacturing, with brand integration driving operational efficiency. The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is CNY 336.7 billion, CNY 368.5 billion, and CNY 395.6 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 10%, and 7% respectively. The net profit forecast for the same period is CNY 15.2 billion, CNY 17.8 billion, and CNY 21.7 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 17%, and 22% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.3, and 6.8 for 2025-2027 [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Acceleration and Strategic Transformation - The company has entered the 4.0 era of vehicle manufacturing, focusing on new energy and high-end models. The brand matrix includes four major brands: Geely, Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co, covering various market segments and energy types [19][20][22]. 2. Galaxy: Platformization Ensures Cost-Effectiveness - The GEA architecture is designed for new energy vehicles, enhancing safety and performance. The Galaxy brand has seen significant sales growth, with models like E5 and Star Wish achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [36][44]. 3. Zeekr Technology: Balanced Product Strength - Zeekr's SEA architecture supports a wide range of vehicle types, from sedans to SUVs. The brand has successfully launched models that cater to both high-end and mainstream markets, establishing a strong brand presence [52][57]. 4. Oil Vehicles: Competitive Pricing Maintained - The main brand continues to offer competitive pricing in the oil vehicle segment, contributing to stable revenue and profit generation. The company is also expanding its export capabilities, leveraging its global production footprint [9][10][25]. 5. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of CNY 336.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of CNY 15.2 billion. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting operational efficiencies from brand integration [10][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company has completed a cash acquisition of 51% of Tongyihe, which is expected to enhance its precision stamping industry chain and accelerate the localization of reducer components [4][5] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits attributable to the parent company to be 0.65 billion, 0.90 billion, and 1.08 billion respectively for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4] - The acquisition of Tongyihe is anticipated to expand the company's performance scale and improve its competitive position in the precision stamping market [4][5] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 0.80 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.33%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.15 billion, up 3.22% year-on-year [4] - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 4.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 26.9%, and net profit is expected to reach 0.65 billion, reflecting a growth of 20.8% [6] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 41.2, 29.9, and 24.8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Tongyihe is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in precision stamping technology, which includes 20 patents and partnerships with renowned automotive parts companies [5] - The performance commitment period for Tongyihe is set from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 0.28 billion, 0.32 billion, and 0.36 billion for those years [4]