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开源证券晨会纪要-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 14:43
2025 年 07 月 07 日 其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源:聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.842 | -20250704 | | 传媒 | 0.914 | 行业公司 | | 综合 | 0.707 | | | 公用事业 | 0.673 | | | 钢铁 | 0.498 | | | 数据来源:聚源 | | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | -1.867 | | 有色金属 | -1.597 | | 基础化工 | -1.218 | | 轻工制造 | -1.172 | | 环保 | -1.033 | | 数据来源:聚源 | | 开源晨会 0707 【非银金融】6 月新开户同比高增,头部券商受益于港股高景气——行业周报 -20250706 【商贸零售】美丽田园股权结构优化,新氧青春诊所发展迅速——行业周报 ...
行业周报:新房成交面积环比增长,多地力推商转公贷款-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 14:20
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - New housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year figures show a decline. The report tracks 68 cities where new housing transactions increased by 38% month-on-month but decreased by 32% year-on-year. The total transaction area for the year to date is 67.46 million square meters, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline [5][17] - The report indicates that the land transaction area has decreased year-on-year, but the premium rate has increased month-on-month. In Tianjin, a hot land auction market saw 15 residential plots sold, with one plot in the Hexi District sold at a premium of over 10%, generating a total revenue of 8.777 billion yuan [5][37] - The issuance of domestic credit bonds has increased both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a total issuance of 8.95 billion yuan, marking a 606% year-on-year increase and a 63% month-on-month increase [5][44] Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The central government emphasizes the construction of "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, aiming to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks. Local governments are implementing policies to promote the conversion of commercial loans to public housing fund loans, thereby lowering mortgage rates [6][14][15] Sales Data - In the 27th week of 2025, the new housing transaction area in 68 major cities was 3.68 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 32% but a month-on-month increase of 38%. The cumulative transaction area for the year to date is 67.46 million square meters, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline [7][17][33] Investment Data - In the 27th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 27.86 million square meters, while the transaction area was 32.41 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 19%. The premium rate for land transactions was 7.8% [37][38] Financing Data - The issuance of credit bonds in the 27th week of 2025 reached 8.95 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.34%, remaining stable month-on-month. The cumulative issuance for the year is 185.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-on-year decrease [44][46] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, anticipating that ongoing supportive fiscal and monetary policies will help stabilize the real estate market and improve the housing supply-demand relationship [5][55]
北交所策略专题报告:开源证券海洋经济迎来新机遇,关注北交所化工材料利通科技、科隆新材等
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 14:13
Group 1 - The report highlights the new opportunities in the domestic marine economy, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and increased policy support to encourage social capital participation [3][11][13] - The marine economy's gross production value is projected to reach 10,543.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.9% compared to 2023, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall GDP growth [11][13] - The chemical new materials sector is identified as a crucial support for strategic emerging industries, with companies like Litong Technology and Kolong New Materials involved in marine applications such as offshore oil extraction and shipbuilding [3][13][15] Group 2 - The North Exchange's chemical new materials industry experienced a decline of 2.49% this week, with the overall performance of the sector being weak compared to other industries [4][19][22] - Key stocks in the chemical new materials sector include Minshida, which saw an increase of 7.15%, and Kangpu Chemical, which rose by 1.02% [21][25] - The report notes that the chemical product prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by 0.8% while MDI prices decreased by 1.5% [27][32]
行业周报:艾伯维收购Capstan,加码体内CAR-T-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 13:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics by AbbVie for up to $2.1 billion, focusing on in vivo CAR-T therapy development [6][15] - The report emphasizes the growing interest and investment in in vivo CAR-T technology, with multiple companies actively pursuing diverse delivery systems [7][26] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a weekly increase of 3.64%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sub-industries [8][31] Summary by Sections 1. AbbVie Acquisition of Capstan - AbbVie announced the acquisition of Capstan Therapeutics for a maximum of $2.1 billion, focusing on in vivo CAR-T therapies [6][15] - Capstan's main asset, CPTX2309, is an RNA delivery candidate for anti-CD19 CAR-T therapy, currently in Phase I clinical trials [15][20] 2. MNC's Active Layout in In Vivo CAR-T Technology - MNC has been actively investing in in vivo CAR-T technology through collaborations and acquisitions, focusing on both lentiviral and lipid nanoparticle delivery systems [7][26] - The report notes that over 20 disclosed mRNA technology projects in in vivo CAR-T are primarily concentrated in the lipid nanoparticle direction [22][30] 3. Weekly Performance of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector increased by 3.64% in the first week of July, outperforming the CSI 300 index [31] - Among sub-sectors, other biological products saw the highest increase of 8.28%, while medical equipment experienced the largest decline of 0.21% [35][36] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include major pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, East China Medicine, and others [9]
汽车行业周报:重磅车型持续推出,本土品牌竞争力持续强化-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 12:51
行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 重磅车型持续推出,本土品牌竞争力持续强化 ——行业周报 (4)看好智驾强势主机厂及业绩优异产业链标的。整车:强产品打造能力、强 产品周期叠加强智驾能力玩家有望拥有持续优异销量表现。零部件:受益于国产 替代及出海,龙头公司业绩表现优异并有望延续高增长。 本周热点:问界 M9 大定破 6 万;理想 i8/小米 YU7 等将逐步亮相 比亚迪王朝、海洋网智驾版新车型降价。乘联分会:5 月狭义乘用车零售预计 185.0 万辆,新能源占比过半。比亚迪 4 月欧洲纯电车销量首次击败特斯拉,同比大涨 169%,匈牙利工厂 2025 年底将生产纯电小车海鸥等。2025 款问界 M9 上市 64 天大定突破 6 万台,拿下 50 万级销冠。2025 款问界 M9 上市 64 天大定突破 6 万台,拿下 50 万级销冠。吉利银河家族旗舰 M9 发布,综合续航超 1500km;星 愿小车上市 200+天,销量突破 20 万辆,刷新纯电车型最快纪录。小米汽车首款 SUV 车型 YU7 发布,预计 7 月上市。 投资建议 智驾逐步开启商业化落地,有关主机厂和零部件公司有望持续受益,智驾强 ...
行业周报:嘉实京东仓储物流REIT扩募启动,环保REITs单周表现优异-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 12:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to enhance its allocation cost-effectiveness due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds into the market. This sector presents good investment opportunities [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 27th week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index was 886.6, up 12.84% year-on-year and up 0.65% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1116.42, up 19.81% year-on-year and up 0.66% month-on-month [6][19]. - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 739 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 47.21%, with a transaction value of 3.328 billion yuan, up 69.88% year-on-year [24][27]. Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors showed the following changes: - Affordable housing: -0.04% (weekly), +5.97% (monthly) - Environmental: +2.34% (weekly), +4.28% (monthly) - Expressways: +0.82% (weekly), +1.27% (monthly) - Industrial parks: +0.58% (weekly), +2.14% (monthly) - Warehousing and logistics: +1.03% (weekly), +1.21% (monthly) - Energy: +0.62% (weekly), +3.95% (monthly) - Consumer: +0.73% (weekly), +3.42% (monthly) [34][49]. New Listings and Market Activity - There are currently 16 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating an active issuance market. Recent public offerings for data center REITs have seen high subscription rates, with one reaching a subscription multiple of 167.06 times [7][13].
行业周报:即时零售补贴加码第三方配送、餐饮受益,AI创意工具龙头Figma拟上市-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 11:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic theme park bookings for the summer of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 70% in orders, particularly for major global players like Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland [2][3] - The report also notes that local IP parks, such as the Pop Mart City Park, have gained popularity, with a 600% increase in bookings in June, placing it among the top 10 summer theme parks [2][3] - The report discusses the strong performance of the AI creative tool Figma, which is preparing for an IPO with a projected valuation of $20 billion, showcasing a 48% revenue growth in 2024 [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Leisure - The summer theme park bookings have surged, with a 70% increase in orders compared to the previous year, and surrounding hotel bookings have also risen by approximately 40% [2][3] - The opening of the Shanghai Lego Park has further boosted regional hotel bookings by 350% [13][14] 2. Trendy Toys - The Sanrio 2025 Character Awards have seen record global voting numbers, indicating sustained popularity and engagement with the brand [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of anniversary celebrations for IP operations, with significant events planned for characters like Melody and Kuromi [25][27] 3. AI and Creative Tools - Figma, a leading AI creative tool, is set to go public, with a revenue of $749 million projected for 2024, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase [4][26] - The company has a strong customer base, serving 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, and has shown a net dollar retention rate of 125% [26][30] 4. Coffee and Tea - Luckin Coffee has expanded into the U.S. market with two new stores in New York, utilizing a digital-first approach to minimize costs [36][41] - The average monthly store efficiency for Luckin Coffee reached 247,000 yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase [41][44] 5. Instant Retail - The competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has intensified, with significant subsidies being offered to consumers [45][47] - On July 5, Meituan reported over 120 million orders in a single day, indicating a surge in demand [47][53] 6. Beauty and Personal Care - The report highlights the dominance of the domestic brand Han Shu in the Douyin platform, achieving over 700 million yuan in sales in June [53][54] - The beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan in June, with Han Shu leading the market [53][54]
非银金融行业周报:6月新开户同比高增,头部券商受益于港股高景气-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 10:58
非银金融 2025 年 07 月 06 日 投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《稳定币主题催化券商板块上涨,中 报 有 望 延 续 高 景 气 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.29 《券商中报向好叠加公募欠配,看好 板块机会—行业点评报告》-2025.6.25 《规范分红险分红水平,券商分类评 价 新 规 突 出 功 能 性 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.22 6 月新开户同比高增,头部券商受益于港股高景气 ——行业周报 高超(分析师) 卢崑(分析师) gaochao1@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790520050001 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790524040002 周观点:6 月新开户同比高增,头部券商受益于港股高景气 6月上交所新开户人数同比高增,交易量高增、债市和股市向好、海外业务充分 受益于港股市场高景气,预计上市券商中报业绩延续一季度以来的同比高增,关 注后续业绩预告、稳定币等主题催化,继续看好券商板块机 ...
商贸零售行业周报:美丽田园股权结构优化,新氧青春诊所发展迅速-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 10:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]
北交所策略专题报告:北交所小巨人主阵地的新质生产力扩容,高端制造链再升级
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 10:43
Group 1 - The report highlights that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) is focusing on enhancing the quality of its listed companies, particularly by accepting firms in hard technology and advanced manufacturing sectors by 2025 [4][12][13] - As of July 4, 2025, a total of 133 new companies have been accepted, with 44 of them classified as "little giants," representing 33.08% of the total [4][16][29] - The majority of new companies are engaged in core manufacturing components, industrial technology, and key materials, primarily in sectors such as semiconductors, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [4][16][29] Group 2 - The average revenue of new companies for 2024 is projected to be 799 million, which is higher than the average revenue of existing BSE companies [29][31] - The average net profit for new companies is expected to be 99.15 million, significantly exceeding the average net profit of existing BSE companies [29][33] - New companies are showing higher profitability metrics, with average gross margins of 34.23% and return on equity (ROE) of 20.08%, both above the averages for existing BSE companies [35][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the BSE's market performance has seen fluctuations, with the BSE 50 index closing at 1,415.04 points, down 1.71% [5][41] - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares has decreased from 51.33X to 50.35X, reflecting a broader trend in the market [5][38] - The liquidity of BSE A-shares has declined, with an average daily trading volume of 28.068 billion, down 19.15% from the previous week [5][39]