电力设备及新能源周报 20250720 光伏产业链价格上行，6 月变压器出口总额创新高 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 本周（20250714-20250718）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周上涨 0.57%，涨跌幅排名第 15，弱于上证指数。 本周工控自动化涨幅最大，太阳能指数跌幅最大。工控自动化上涨 3.57%，新 能源汽车指数上涨 2.62%，核电指数上涨 1.95%，储能指数上涨 1.34%，锂电 池指数上涨 0.29%，风力发电指数下跌 0.75%，太阳能指数下跌 2.53%。 ➢ 新能源车：2025 年第二季度美国轻型车市场创下年内首次负增长 2025 年第二季度，美国轻型车市场出现了显著的结构变动。由于关税政策的 实施以及市场对价格上涨的预期，消费者提前进行了购车消费，导致需求被提 前透支，6 月销量同比下降 4.2%，至 128.8 万辆，第二季度销量增长 2.3%， 达到 4,207,796 辆，成为本年度首次出现的销量负增长情况。与此同时，美国 本地组装车型在总交付量中的占比从去年同期的 53.4% 上升至 54.8%，这一 数据变化直观反映出市场对本地制造车型的偏好正不断增强 ...

- The report tracks the performance of growth factors, highlighting that growth factors performed well across different market capitalizations, with higher excess returns in large-cap stocks[2][42][43] - The report mentions that the growth factor had a strong performance in the past week, with specific factors such as (current consensus forecast rev_FY1 - 3 months ago consensus forecast rev_FY1) / 3 months ago consensus forecast rev_FY1 absolute value, (current ROE - last year's ROE) / last year's ROE absolute value, single-quarter EPS growth rate, R&D to sales ratio, and operating income_TTM / average total assets showing excess returns of over 1% relative to the CSI All Share Index[2][42][43] - The report provides detailed excess returns for various factors over different time periods, with factors like tot_rd_ttm_to_assets, dp_historical, jor, mom3_rating_score_90d, and mom3_rev_fy1 showing significant excess returns over the past week and month[2][44] - The report also analyzes factor performance across different indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000), noting that factors such as fix_ratio, sue1, peg, yoy_roe, and yoy_eps_q performed well across all indices, with better performance in large-cap indices[2][45][46] - The report evaluates the performance of quantitative portfolios, noting that the enhanced portfolios based on financial report coverage for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 achieved positive absolute and excess returns over the past week, month, and year[2][47][48] - The report provides specific performance metrics for the enhanced portfolios, including absolute returns, relative returns, and annualized excess returns, with the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieving an absolute return of 230.84% and an annualized excess return of 10.89% since 2015[2][48][49] - The report lists the top 30 holdings for each enhanced portfolio, including stocks like JinkoSolar, Inspur Information, and Weir Group for the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio, and stocks like Shanghai Jahwa, Kedali, and Lianlong for the CSI 500 enhanced portfolio[2][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the express delivery sector [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in the first half of 2025, with a total business volume of 956.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3%. The total revenue reached 7187.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report highlights that the demand for express delivery is driven by trends such as the increasing volume of small packages, reverse logistics, and the benefits from lower-tier markets. The growth rate of express delivery volume significantly outpaces the growth of retail sales and online retail sales [6]. - Price competition in the industry is intensifying due to the trend of smaller packages and ongoing price wars. However, the report suggests that the intensity of price competition may be controllable due to policy guidance aimed at promoting high-quality development [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In June 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 168.7 billion pieces, with revenue of 1263.2 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and 9.0%, respectively [3]. - For the first half of 2025, the express delivery revenue was 7187.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the business volume was 956.4 billion pieces, growing by 19.3% [3][5]. Company Performance - In June 2025, SF Express reported a revenue of 199.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The business volume was 14.60 billion pieces, growing by 31.8% year-on-year [4]. - For the first half of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 1091.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, and a business volume of 78.13 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 25.7% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with expectations of continued growth driven by the expanding e-commerce market and new demands from lower-tier markets. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [7]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, 2025, which is expected to enhance the development of the stablecoin industry in Hong Kong. The U.S. Congress has also passed the "Genius Act" to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, signed into law by President Trump [1][2]. - Short-term, cross-border payment scenarios are anticipated to be significant applications for stablecoins, improving efficiency and reducing costs. Financial technology companies related to cross-border payments are expected to benefit, with a focus on companies like Lianlian Digital [1]. - Long-term, stablecoins are expected to facilitate virtual asset trading and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and security token offerings (STO). Major Chinese brokerages are accelerating their involvement, with firms like Guotai Junan International upgrading their virtual asset trading licenses [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.17% during the week [9]. - The non-bank sector experienced an overall decline, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.24% [9]. Securities Sector - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity, with a total trading volume of 0.73 trillion shares and a turnover of 9.34 trillion yuan, marking a 6.05% increase week-on-week [17]. - The report notes that the margin trading balance reached 1.90 trillion yuan, a 1.52% increase from the previous week [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Ping An, China Life, and China Property & Casualty Insurance. In the securities sector, it recommends attention to leading firms like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy Securities [44][45]. - Non-bank institutions to watch include ZhongAn Online, Lianlian Digital, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and Lianyi Technology [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the nuclear fusion industry, indicating a potential stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [4]. Core Insights - The successful plasma ignition of the HHMAX-901 device by Hanhai Fusion marks a significant breakthrough in China's commercial exploration of controlled nuclear fusion, particularly in the field-reversed configuration (FRC) technology [1][2]. - FRC technology is gaining attention due to its simpler system structure and lower costs, positioning it as a frontrunner for commercialization in the nuclear fusion sector [1]. - The report suggests that the commercialization of the nuclear fusion industry is accelerating, urging continued attention to the sector's catalysts [3]. Summary by Sections Event Highlights - On July 18, Hanhai Fusion successfully conducted the plasma ignition ceremony for its HHMAX-901 device, representing a major milestone in the commercial application of nuclear fusion technology in China [1]. - The FRC technology, which Hanhai Fusion focuses on, is characterized by its ability to create a closed magnetic field through reverse current, forming a self-organizing magnetic structure [1]. Company Developments - Hanhai Fusion's HHMAX-901 project began in June 2024, with significant progress made in physical design and engineering, culminating in the successful ignition of plasma [2]. - The company plans to leverage the HHMAX-901 as a platform to advance research in controllable nuclear fusion technology and accelerate breakthroughs in core components [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in vacuum chambers, high-power electronic tubes, superconductors, and capacitors, including Guoguang Electric, Xuguang Electronics, and Yongding Co., among others [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting key companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng as core investment opportunities [4][8]. Core Insights - The upcoming Tesla earnings call and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference are expected to catalyze advancements in robotics and the automotive sector, with significant developments anticipated from Tesla [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of new vehicle launches on the passenger car market, driven by government policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing quality [3][10]. - The report suggests a shift in competition from price wars to value-based competition, which is expected to improve the overall market structure [3][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data - In the second week of July 2025, passenger car sales reached 370,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.7%. New energy vehicle sales were 207,000 units, up 11.7% year-on-year and down 4.0% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 55.8% [1][36]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with a 3.41% increase in A-share automotive stocks from July 14 to July 18, ranking third among sub-industries [1][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, specifically naming Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Xpeng [4][11]. - For automotive parts, it highlights companies involved in smart driving and new energy vehicle supply chains, such as Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group [4][12]. Passenger Car Market - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies to combat "involution" in the automotive industry will alleviate cash flow pressures on parts suppliers and enhance industry collaboration [3][10]. - Upcoming vehicle launches, including models from Li Auto and Geely, are expected to improve market fundamentals [3][10]. Robotics Sector - The report highlights the acceleration of leading players entering the robotics market, with Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots expected to significantly impact the sector [14][15]. Motorcycle Market - The report indicates a strong performance in the motorcycle segment, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement category, with sales showing significant year-on-year growth [17][18]. Heavy Truck Market - The heavy truck market is projected to recover due to expanded government subsidies for replacing older vehicles, with a notable increase in sales observed in June 2025 [19][20]. Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing growth driven by high demand and improved manufacturing capabilities, with leading companies expected to benefit from global expansion [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The ongoing technological competition among major countries necessitates the localization of AI computing power in China. Although H20 has been approved for sale, long-term localization remains a priority. The development of the chip and underlying software ecosystem will be crucial for the domestic AI industry. The new round of global AI "arms race" has begun, with the release of significant models and products like ChatGPT Agent and Kimi K2 expected to significantly boost domestic computing power demand. The long-term development prospects for domestic computing power are optimistic [3][36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of July 14-18, the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.09%, the SME Index increased by 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index grew by 3.17%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a 2.32% increase. The top five gainers in the sector were Xiling Information, Chunz中科技, Information Development, Dingjie Smart, and Tuoer Si. The top five decliners were Dazhi Hui, Jinzheng Shares, Jingbeifang, Xinyada, and Changliang Technology [1][44]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting the synergy between industrial internet and artificial intelligence, accelerating the development of 6G technology [38]. OpenAI has released ChatGPT Agent, which can think independently and select tools to complete complex tasks [39]. The MIIT will also organize the "Artificial Intelligence + Software" initiative to accelerate the software intelligence process [40]. Company Dynamics - Capital Online's shareholder Zhao Yongzhi reduced his stake by 5,200,000 shares, accounting for 1.036% of the total share capital. Guanglian Da repurchased 8,732,100 shares, approximately 0.53% of its total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 121,956,165.8 yuan [2][42]. Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI computing power, particularly in the following areas: 1. Chip design: Key players include Cambrian and Haiguang Information 2. Advanced wafer manufacturing: Focus on leading companies like SMIC 3. Domestic AI computing liquid cooling: Companies like Highlan and Yingweike 4. Domestic AI servers: Notable companies include Inspur, Softcom, China Great Wall, Shenzhou Data, Huibo Yuntong, Tuo Wei Information, Zhongke Shuguang, ZTE, Fenghuo Communication, Unisplendour, Industrial Fulian, and Gaoxin Development [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "stability growth plan" from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize steel production capacity, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [3][7]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific prices for various steel products increasing as of July 18, 2025 [1][10]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with a total production of 8.68 million tons for the five major steel products, reflecting a week-on-week decrease [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,270 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price increases, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel [1][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products is 8.68 million tons, down 45,300 tons week-on-week [2][8]. - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 81,500 tons to 9.21 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons [2][8]. Profitability - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -19 CNY/ton, -7 CNY/ton, and +7 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies with strong performance and dividend potential [12]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is increasing production as planned, with a June 2025 output rise of 458,000 barrels per day, slightly above the target of 411,000 barrels per day, indicating strong production momentum [1][9]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have raised their forecasts for supply growth in 2025, with EIA adjusting supply and demand growth by 26,000 and 1,000 barrels per day respectively [2][9]. - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with production at 13.38 million barrels per day, down by 100,000 barrels from the previous week [3][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, a decrease of 1.53% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $67.34 per barrel, down 1.62% [10][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA forecasts global supply and demand for 2025 at 10,461 million and 10,354 million barrels per day, respectively, indicating a surplus of 1.07 million barrels per day [2][9]. - OPEC's forecast for 2025 non-DOC supply is 6,265 million barrels per day, with global demand at 10,513 million barrels per day, suggesting a supply-demand gap if DOC maintains its production [2][9]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a target PE of 10 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target PE of 9 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Sinopec with a target PE of 14 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Zhongman Petroleum with a recommendation to buy due to its growth potential [12]. - New Natural Gas with a recommendation to buy, focusing on its growth phase [12]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.6% as of July 18, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [13][18].