Group 1: New Consumption in the Chemical Industry - The report highlights investment opportunities in the chemical industry driven by new consumption trends, particularly in areas such as nylon, sugar substitutes, probiotics, and plant growth regulators [3][5]. - Nylon is expected to benefit from the growing demand for outdoor sports, with companies like Huading Co. and Juheshun recommended for investment [3]. - The sugar substitute market is projected to expand, with a focus on companies like Bailong Chuangyuan, despite the need for increased consumer awareness [3][34]. Group 2: Fertilizer Export Opportunities - The report indicates a favorable outlook for fertilizer prices in the second half of 2025, particularly for phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain high profitability due to significant price differences domestically and internationally [3]. - Companies like Yuntianhua are recommended for their leading position in phosphate chemicals, while Yaji International is noted for its potassium fertilizer resources [3]. Group 3: Robotics and Material Demand - The report discusses the imminent mass production of humanoid robots, which is expected to create new material demands, particularly for PEEK materials and UHMWPE fibers [3]. - Companies such as Zhongyan Co., Kaisheng New Materials, and others are highlighted for their potential in this emerging market [3]. Group 4: Pesticide Market Outlook - The report anticipates a systemic upturn in the pesticide market due to frequent supply constraints, recommending companies like Xianda Co. and Lier Chemical for their focus on limited supply varieties [3][5]. Group 5: New Materials and Growth Stocks - The new materials market is described as active, with growth stocks like Shengquan Group and Zhuoyue New Energy recommended for investment [3][5]. Group 6: Nylon Industry Insights - The nylon fiber market is characterized by strong performance metrics, with a significant portion of the market (75% in 2022) attributed to civilian applications [19][25]. - Huading Co. is noted for its strategic focus on differentiated and functional nylon production, with a projected revenue of 7.52 billion yuan in 2024 [25][27]. Group 7: Sugar Substitute Market Dynamics - The sugar substitute market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.6% by 2025, with the global market size projected to reach 90 billion USD [37][38]. - Companies like Bailong Chuangyuan are positioned as leaders in the production of health-oriented sweeteners [42][45]. Group 8: Probiotic Market Growth - The probiotic market is experiencing rapid growth, with the global market size reaching 60.23 billion USD in 2022 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% until 2030 [58]. - Companies like Weilan Biological are highlighted for their comprehensive product offerings and strong market presence [59][65]. Group 9: Plant Growth Regulators - The plant growth regulator market in China is projected to reach 715 billion yuan by 2026, driven by increasing agricultural efficiency and regulatory changes [67][71]. - Guoguang Co. is identified as a leading player in this sector, with a diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions enhancing its market position [71].

交通运输物流行业 2025 年 5 月航空数据点评 ➢ 投资建议：5 月价格同比止跌后，6 月预售价格同比现上涨，暑运旺季或再 现需求畅旺，重申重视航空旺季前布局窗口。我们认为年初至今航空国内价格逐 渐走出改善趋势，淡季需求逐渐体现出支撑，五一假期航空量价表现强劲或将传 导至暑期旺季，建议前瞻性关注远期价格投放情况。淡季价格超预期、暑运需求 将致 2Q、3Q 行业盈利表现好于预期，建议关注航空旺季前配置窗口，关注春秋 航空、吉祥航空、华夏航空和三大航（中国国航、南方航空、中国东航）。 风险提示：油价大幅上涨；人民币汇率波动；飞机故障造成大面积停飞。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 601111.SH | 中国国航 | | 7.69 | 0.19 | 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the biodiesel industry, particularly highlighting the potential growth in demand for biojet fuel and marine biofuels, suggesting a focus on companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates a notable increase in HVO/SAF prices, with external SAF prices rising by 7.71% to $2127.65 per ton and HVO prices increasing by 8.69% to $2236.40 per ton [1]. - Domestic prices for waste cooking oil and gutter oil have also risen, with average prices reported at 6810 yuan per ton and 6420 yuan per ton, respectively [2]. - Significant industry news includes Singapore's record sales of bio-blended marine fuels and the U.S. EPA's proposed renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, which are expected to increase biodiesel blending requirements significantly [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - External SAF and HVO prices have seen substantial increases, with SAF at $2127.65 per ton and HVO at $2236.40 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.71% and 8.69% respectively [1]. - European Ucome prices reached €1301.85 per ton, up 4.94%, while China's Ucome price was $1114.50 per ton, up 1.36% [1]. Domestic Market - Domestic waste cooking oil and gutter oil prices have increased, with waste cooking oil averaging 6810 yuan per ton and gutter oil at 6420 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Developments - Singapore's bio-blended VLSFO sales reached a new high of 95,800 tons, and the U.S. EPA's proposed rules aim to raise biodiesel blending to 5.61 billion gallons for 2026, a 67% increase from 2025 [3]. - The EU is launching a subsidy program to promote SAF usage, potentially increasing demand significantly [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with substantial biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and others, due to expected demand growth and increased raw material supply [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the upcoming semi-annual reports, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025 [1]. - The phosphatic fertilizer export window is opening, with high demand expected to persist, alleviating domestic overcapacity issues and supporting profitability for major phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - Increased scrutiny on chemical safety following recent accidents is likely to elevate the overall demand for pesticides, as regulatory measures may lead to the exit of non-compliant production capacities [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3385.44 points, down 2.49% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.04% [10]. - Key chemical products such as formaldehyde, Singapore diesel, NYMEX natural gas, and Brent crude oil saw significant price increases [18]. Key Chemical Sub-Industries - **Polyester Filament**: Prices have been fluctuating upwards, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY increasing by 167.86, 128.57, and 117.85 CNY/ton respectively [21]. - **Tires**: The industry saw a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 61.39% and semi-steel tire rates at 71.54% [32]. - **Refrigerants**: The R22 market remains stable with high prices, while R134a prices are also on the rise due to increased demand from the repair market and the electric vehicle sector [39][43]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.05 CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.14 CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25 to 12 [4]. - Hailide's EPS is expected to rise from 0.35 CNY in 2024 to 0.41 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 14 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to see significant growth in EPS from 1.24 CNY in 2024 to 4.80 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 35 to 9 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for magnesium alloys in the automotive lightweighting sector, which is expected to experience significant growth [2][31]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio has dropped significantly, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of magnesium [1][11]. - The company has a comprehensive industrial chain covering mining, refining, and processing, which provides a competitive advantage [3][42]. Summary by Sections Magnesium Industry - Magnesium is a strategically important metal with a fully self-sufficient supply chain in China, unlike aluminum and iron, which have high external dependency rates [1][24]. - The magnesium-aluminum price ratio fell below 1 in March 2024 and has remained low, indicating a favorable cost position for magnesium [1][11]. - The automotive sector is the largest demand area for magnesium alloys, accounting for 70% of consumption, driven by the need for lightweight materials [27][31]. Company Overview - The company has significant resources, including extensive dolomite reserves and multiple magnesium production bases, which support its growth potential [3][42]. - Current projects aim to increase production capacity to 500,000 tons of raw magnesium and magnesium alloys [3][42]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in various applications, including automotive components, which are expected to see increased adoption [49]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 214 million, 478 million, and 639 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.48, and 0.64 yuan [4][54]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to decrease from 52 in 2025 to 18 in 2027, indicating potential for growth [4][54].

非银行业周报 20250622 1.5%预定利率分红险有望提振板块估值 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 分红险预定利率迎来"1 开头"时代，1.5%预定利率分红险有望降低险企负 债成本。根据财联社报道，近期市场上已有险企对分红险预定利率进行下调，合 资公司同方全球率先推出了 1.5%预定利率定价的分红险产品，与前期 2.0%预定 利率的分红险相比，预定利率降低了 50bp。近期长端利率 10 年期国债持续低 位震荡，同时最近一期的预定利率指导值为 2.13%，已低于现有传统险预定利率 2.5%达 37bp，超过了 25bp，若后一次预定利率指导值继续低于 2.5%达 25bp 以上，则预定利率将调降，此次有险企率先开发降低预定利率后的分红险，我们 认为体现了在预定利率动态调整机制下，险企主动并提前进行产品切换的思路。 1.5%预定利率的分红险销售有望缓解险企的债券配置压力，当前 10 年期国债维 持在 1.6%左右的水平，1.5%预定利率分红险的债券配置压力有望减轻，头部险 企有望凭借更为丰富的分红产品系列和更强的综合投资能力而更为受益，保险板 块估值有望持续修复。 ➢ 证监会制定发布《科创板意见》，增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth of 5% to 15% relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The recent implementation of the stablecoin legislation in Hong Kong signifies an acceleration in the development of blockchain and fintech innovations, reflecting a positive attitude towards financial technology in the region [6][41]. - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, holding approximately 86% of the total market share [18][19]. - The Circle stablecoin has seen a price increase of over 675% since its listing, with a market capitalization exceeding $36.7 billion, highlighting significant interest from overseas capital markets [6][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of June 16-20, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45%, the SME index decreased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.66%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 1.87% [3][49]. Industry News - Midjourney launched its first AI video generation model, V1, which supports image-to-video conversion with a maximum duration of 21 seconds [4]. - Huawei Cloud released the Pangu Model 5.5, announcing the launch of a new generation of Ascend AI cloud services [4][45]. Company News - Henghua Technology announced a reduction of 5,800,000 shares by a major shareholder, representing 0.97% of the total share capital [5]. - Jingye Technology plans to reduce its shares by up to 2,313,800 shares, accounting for no more than 1% of the total share capital [5][48]. Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on the stablecoin industry chain, including companies like Zhongke Jincai, Jinzhen Co., and Longxin Technology, as well as the cross-border payment industry chain, which includes Newland, Xinguodu, and Lakala [6][41].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Three-dimensional Timing Framework **Construction Idea**: The model integrates liquidity, divergence, and prosperity indicators to assess market timing and risk levels[7][14][16] **Construction Process**: 1. **Liquidity Index**: Tracks market liquidity trends[22] 2. **Divergence Index**: Measures market disagreement levels[20] 3. **Prosperity Index**: Evaluates industrial prosperity trends[26] 4. Combines these three dimensions to form a comprehensive timing framework[14] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates stable performance in identifying market timing opportunities[16] - **Model Name**: Financing-Active Large Order Flow Intersection Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combines financing and large order flows to identify industries with strong capital inflows[34][40] **Construction Process**: 1. **Financing Flow Factor**: Neutralizes market capitalization and calculates the net financing buy-sell difference over a 50-day average[40] 2. **Active Large Order Flow Factor**: Neutralizes transaction volume and ranks net inflows over the past year, using a 10-day average[40] 3. Filters extreme industries and integrates both factors to enhance stability[40] **Evaluation**: Achieves stable annualized excess returns with reduced drawdowns compared to other strategies[40] Quantitative Models Backtesting Results - **Three-dimensional Timing Framework**: Historical performance shows stable risk assessment and timing capabilities[16] - **Financing-Active Large Order Flow Intersection Strategy**: - Annualized excess return: 13.5% - IR: 1.7[40] - Weekly absolute return: -1.6% - Weekly excess return: -0.1%[40] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factors **Construction Idea**: Focuses on valuation metrics such as earnings yield and book-to-market ratios[46][47] **Construction Process**: 1. **Earnings Yield (ep_fy3)**: $ ep\_fy3 = \frac{1}{PE\_FY3} $ 2. **Book-to-Market Ratio (bp)**: $ bp = \frac{Shareholder\_Equity}{Market\_Value} $ 3. Neutralizes industry and market capitalization effects[46][48] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance across multiple timeframes and indices[46][48] - **Factor Name**: Growth Factors **Construction Idea**: Captures growth metrics such as revenue and profit growth rates[46][49] **Construction Process**: 1. **Revenue Growth (yoy_or)**: $ yoy\_or = \frac{Current\_Revenue - Previous\_Revenue}{Previous\_Revenue} $ 2. **Profit Growth (yoy_np)**: $ yoy\_np = \frac{Current\_Net\_Profit - Previous\_Net\_Profit}{Previous\_Net\_Profit} $ 3. Neutralizes industry and market capitalization effects[46][50] **Evaluation**: Performs better in large-cap indices and shows consistent excess returns[49][50] Quantitative Factors Backtesting Results - **Valuation Factors**: - Weekly excess return: 1.5%-2.18% - Monthly excess return: 1.46%-3.85%[48] - **Growth Factors**: - Weekly excess return: 1.52%-3.89% - Monthly excess return: 0.79%-3.02%[50] Quantitative Portfolios and Construction - **Portfolio Name**: Index Enhancement Portfolios **Construction Idea**: Adjusts factor selection based on research coverage to enhance index performance[51] **Construction Process**: 1. Divides stocks into high and low research coverage domains[51] 2. Applies suitable factors for each domain to optimize portfolio construction[51] **Evaluation**: Outperforms original index selection methods in terms of excess returns[51] Quantitative Portfolios Backtesting Results - **Index Enhancement Portfolios**: - **HS300**: - Weekly absolute return: -0.89% - Weekly excess return: 0.03% - Annualized excess return: 7.77%[52] - **CSI500**: - Weekly absolute return: 0.16% - Weekly excess return: 0.40% - Annualized excess return: 9.82%[52] - **CSI1000**: - Weekly absolute return: -0.58% - Weekly excess return: -0.74% - Annualized excess return: 9.26%[52]

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [4]. Core Insights - The inverter export value has shown continuous improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.25% in the first five months of 2025, reaching 24 billion RMB [3][21]. - The total electricity consumption in May 2025 was 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with significant increases in the first and third industries [4][34]. - The report highlights the ongoing decline in silicon material prices, which is expected to impact the photovoltaic industry positively [22][26]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Leap Motor launched the 2026 C16 SUV, featuring a spacious interior and advanced safety and intelligent driving systems [2][8]. - The vehicle incorporates high-strength materials and a comprehensive safety structure, achieving a top safety rating [9]. Photovoltaics - Inverter exports reached 24 billion RMB in the first five months of 2025, with May exports at 5.975 billion RMB, marking a 7.96% year-on-year increase [21]. - The domestic component export value was 79.559 billion RMB, down 24.07% year-on-year, but May saw a 7.18% increase compared to the previous month [21]. - Silicon prices have decreased, with multi-crystalline silicon prices dropping by 6.27% [22]. Electric Power Equipment - The total electricity consumption for the first five months of 2025 was 39,665 billion kWh, up 3.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in the agricultural and residential sectors [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the trend of electric power equipment companies expanding overseas, leveraging China's complete manufacturing supply chain [45]. - Key recommendations include companies involved in transformers and smart grid investments, indicating a shift towards digitalization in the power sector [45].