非银行业周报 20250622 1.5%预定利率分红险有望提振板块估值 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 分红险预定利率迎来"1 开头"时代，1.5%预定利率分红险有望降低险企负 债成本。根据财联社报道，近期市场上已有险企对分红险预定利率进行下调，合 资公司同方全球率先推出了 1.5%预定利率定价的分红险产品，与前期 2.0%预定 利率的分红险相比，预定利率降低了 50bp。近期长端利率 10 年期国债持续低 位震荡，同时最近一期的预定利率指导值为 2.13%，已低于现有传统险预定利率 2.5%达 37bp，超过了 25bp，若后一次预定利率指导值继续低于 2.5%达 25bp 以上，则预定利率将调降，此次有险企率先开发降低预定利率后的分红险，我们 认为体现了在预定利率动态调整机制下，险企主动并提前进行产品切换的思路。 1.5%预定利率的分红险销售有望缓解险企的债券配置压力，当前 10 年期国债维 持在 1.6%左右的水平，1.5%预定利率分红险的债券配置压力有望减轻，头部险 企有望凭借更为丰富的分红产品系列和更强的综合投资能力而更为受益，保险板 块估值有望持续修复。 ➢ 证监会制定发布《科创板意见》，增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a potential growth of 5% to 15% relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The recent implementation of the stablecoin legislation in Hong Kong signifies an acceleration in the development of blockchain and fintech innovations, reflecting a positive attitude towards financial technology in the region [6][41]. - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, holding approximately 86% of the total market share [18][19]. - The Circle stablecoin has seen a price increase of over 675% since its listing, with a market capitalization exceeding $36.7 billion, highlighting significant interest from overseas capital markets [6][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of June 16-20, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45%, the SME index decreased by 0.43%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 1.66%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 1.87% [3][49]. Industry News - Midjourney launched its first AI video generation model, V1, which supports image-to-video conversion with a maximum duration of 21 seconds [4]. - Huawei Cloud released the Pangu Model 5.5, announcing the launch of a new generation of Ascend AI cloud services [4][45]. Company News - Henghua Technology announced a reduction of 5,800,000 shares by a major shareholder, representing 0.97% of the total share capital [5]. - Jingye Technology plans to reduce its shares by up to 2,313,800 shares, accounting for no more than 1% of the total share capital [5][48]. Weekly Insights - The report suggests focusing on the stablecoin industry chain, including companies like Zhongke Jincai, Jinzhen Co., and Longxin Technology, as well as the cross-border payment industry chain, which includes Newland, Xinguodu, and Lakala [6][41].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Three-dimensional Timing Framework **Construction Idea**: The model integrates liquidity, divergence, and prosperity indicators to assess market timing and risk levels[7][14][16] **Construction Process**: 1. **Liquidity Index**: Tracks market liquidity trends[22] 2. **Divergence Index**: Measures market disagreement levels[20] 3. **Prosperity Index**: Evaluates industrial prosperity trends[26] 4. Combines these three dimensions to form a comprehensive timing framework[14] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates stable performance in identifying market timing opportunities[16] - **Model Name**: Financing-Active Large Order Flow Intersection Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combines financing and large order flows to identify industries with strong capital inflows[34][40] **Construction Process**: 1. **Financing Flow Factor**: Neutralizes market capitalization and calculates the net financing buy-sell difference over a 50-day average[40] 2. **Active Large Order Flow Factor**: Neutralizes transaction volume and ranks net inflows over the past year, using a 10-day average[40] 3. Filters extreme industries and integrates both factors to enhance stability[40] **Evaluation**: Achieves stable annualized excess returns with reduced drawdowns compared to other strategies[40] Quantitative Models Backtesting Results - **Three-dimensional Timing Framework**: Historical performance shows stable risk assessment and timing capabilities[16] - **Financing-Active Large Order Flow Intersection Strategy**: - Annualized excess return: 13.5% - IR: 1.7[40] - Weekly absolute return: -1.6% - Weekly excess return: -0.1%[40] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factors **Construction Idea**: Focuses on valuation metrics such as earnings yield and book-to-market ratios[46][47] **Construction Process**: 1. **Earnings Yield (ep_fy3)**: $ ep\_fy3 = \frac{1}{PE\_FY3} $ 2. **Book-to-Market Ratio (bp)**: $ bp = \frac{Shareholder\_Equity}{Market\_Value} $ 3. Neutralizes industry and market capitalization effects[46][48] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance across multiple timeframes and indices[46][48] - **Factor Name**: Growth Factors **Construction Idea**: Captures growth metrics such as revenue and profit growth rates[46][49] **Construction Process**: 1. **Revenue Growth (yoy_or)**: $ yoy\_or = \frac{Current\_Revenue - Previous\_Revenue}{Previous\_Revenue} $ 2. **Profit Growth (yoy_np)**: $ yoy\_np = \frac{Current\_Net\_Profit - Previous\_Net\_Profit}{Previous\_Net\_Profit} $ 3. Neutralizes industry and market capitalization effects[46][50] **Evaluation**: Performs better in large-cap indices and shows consistent excess returns[49][50] Quantitative Factors Backtesting Results - **Valuation Factors**: - Weekly excess return: 1.5%-2.18% - Monthly excess return: 1.46%-3.85%[48] - **Growth Factors**: - Weekly excess return: 1.52%-3.89% - Monthly excess return: 0.79%-3.02%[50] Quantitative Portfolios and Construction - **Portfolio Name**: Index Enhancement Portfolios **Construction Idea**: Adjusts factor selection based on research coverage to enhance index performance[51] **Construction Process**: 1. Divides stocks into high and low research coverage domains[51] 2. Applies suitable factors for each domain to optimize portfolio construction[51] **Evaluation**: Outperforms original index selection methods in terms of excess returns[51] Quantitative Portfolios Backtesting Results - **Index Enhancement Portfolios**: - **HS300**: - Weekly absolute return: -0.89% - Weekly excess return: 0.03% - Annualized excess return: 7.77%[52] - **CSI500**: - Weekly absolute return: 0.16% - Weekly excess return: 0.40% - Annualized excess return: 9.82%[52] - **CSI1000**: - Weekly absolute return: -0.58% - Weekly excess return: -0.74% - Annualized excess return: 9.26%[52]

"大浪淘沙"，在不确定中找寻确定性 2025 年 06 月 22 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预 测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局" 下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产 品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 2025 年三季度宏观经济与大类资产展望 1.2025 年 5 月财政数据点评：5 月财政：找 寻"抗风险"的答案-2025/06/21 2.经济动态跟踪："国补"继续下的消费后劲- 2025/06/19 3.美联储政策观察：6 月议息：谁能"逼"出 联储的降息？-2025/06/18 4.重新讨论变局下的资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Keda Li, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [4]. Core Insights - The inverter export value has shown continuous improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.25% in the first five months of 2025, reaching 24 billion RMB [3][21]. - The total electricity consumption in May 2025 was 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with significant increases in the first and third industries [4][34]. - The report highlights the ongoing decline in silicon material prices, which is expected to impact the photovoltaic industry positively [22][26]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Leap Motor launched the 2026 C16 SUV, featuring a spacious interior and advanced safety and intelligent driving systems [2][8]. - The vehicle incorporates high-strength materials and a comprehensive safety structure, achieving a top safety rating [9]. Photovoltaics - Inverter exports reached 24 billion RMB in the first five months of 2025, with May exports at 5.975 billion RMB, marking a 7.96% year-on-year increase [21]. - The domestic component export value was 79.559 billion RMB, down 24.07% year-on-year, but May saw a 7.18% increase compared to the previous month [21]. - Silicon prices have decreased, with multi-crystalline silicon prices dropping by 6.27% [22]. Electric Power Equipment - The total electricity consumption for the first five months of 2025 was 39,665 billion kWh, up 3.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in the agricultural and residential sectors [34][35]. - The report emphasizes the trend of electric power equipment companies expanding overseas, leveraging China's complete manufacturing supply chain [45]. - Key recommendations include companies involved in transformers and smart grid investments, indicating a shift towards digitalization in the power sector [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting strong growth potential in specific segments [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with passenger car sales reaching 459,000 units in the second week of June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and a month-on-month increase of 26.8% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new model launches and the shift towards high-end domestic brands, suggesting that companies like Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng are well-positioned for growth [1][12]. - The report identifies a trend towards intelligent driving technologies, with significant advancements expected in the second half of 2025, particularly with the launch of new models equipped with advanced AI capabilities [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The automotive market is benefiting from promotional activities and a temporary pause in price wars, leading to improved consumer sentiment and sales performance [2][10]. - The report suggests that the upcoming release of new models, including Xiaomi YU7 and Li Auto i8, will further enhance market dynamics [2][10]. 2. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.44% from June 16 to June 20, 2025, ranking 24th among sub-industries [1][26]. 3. Sales Data - Passenger car sales for the second week of June 2025 were 459,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and a month-on-month increase of 26.8% [1][35]. 4. Key Developments - The report highlights the significance of the 2025 Global AI and Robotics Summit held in Hangzhou, showcasing advancements in robotics that could impact the automotive sector [3][11]. - The report notes the introduction of new policies aimed at stimulating consumer demand, including subsidies for vehicle replacements, which are expected to support sales growth [12][36]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in both intelligence and globalization, specifically naming Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng as key players [2][12][14]. - In the automotive parts sector, companies like Top Group and Berteli are highlighted for their strong positions in the intelligent driving and new energy vehicle supply chains [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies for investment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations. As of June 20, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3070 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [1][10]. - Steel profits have increased slightly, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by +6 CNY/ton, +20 CNY/ton, and -26 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Steel production has risen, with a total output of 8.69 million tons for major steel products, a week-on-week increase of 96,600 tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, various steel prices show mixed trends, with rebar prices stable at 3070 CNY/ton, hot-rolled steel increasing by 40 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 30 CNY/ton to 3510 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products reached 8.69 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 46,100 tons to 2.12 million tons. Total social inventory decreased by 144,300 tons to 9.12 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel profitability, with long-process steel margins showing minor increases while short-process margins have decreased [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as Funiu Co., Ltd. and Shenneng Co., Ltd. while cautiously recommending China General Nuclear Power and Anhui Energy [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - In May, the total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. The first industry saw an increase of 8.4%, the second industry 2.1%, the third industry 9.4%, and urban and rural residents' consumption 9.6% [2][22]. - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain low, benefiting thermal power generation, which is anticipated to improve performance in Q2. Companies are actively investing in wind power and cogeneration assets for long-term growth potential [4][19]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector underperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector closing at 2355.40 points, down 1.13%, and the electricity sub-sector at 3131.64 points, down 1.31% [1][8]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic generation fell by 1.57%, wind power by 1.28%, while thermal services rose by 2.08% [1][13]. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was 663.00 RMB/ton, with no change week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that the electricity market is experiencing a decline in coal and gas prices, with the average transaction price for coal in Guangdong dropping by 28.43% [69]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and growth potential, particularly in thermal power and hydropower sectors, such as Changjiang Electric Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [4][20]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in asset restructuring and mergers, as these are expected to gain traction this year [20].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to experience a positive trend in business quality by 2025, with life insurance showing continuous improvement in new business value (NBV) and the individual insurance channel stabilizing [4][22][23] - The property insurance sector is projected to maintain steady growth in liabilities, with underwriting profitability continuing to improve, particularly in the auto insurance segment driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Investment strategies are shifting towards equity investments, which are anticipated to become a core variable for investment returns, supported by long-term capital entering the market [3][4] Life Insurance - New business premiums are expected to remain under pressure, but the overall premium structure is likely to improve, with NBV continuing to show positive growth [22][23] - The individual insurance channel is stabilizing, with a focus on enhancing channel quality through the "reporting and operation integration" strategy, which is expected to lead to improved performance [29][30] - The proportion of participating insurance is anticipated to increase as companies respond to potential interest rate risks and seek to enhance their product offerings [51][54] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 4-6%, driven by new energy vehicles [2][68] - Non-auto insurance is expected to grow at a faster rate than auto insurance, supported by policy-driven and innovative business models [2] - Underwriting profitability is improving due to better claims management and cost control, with a notable improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) [2][3] Investment Strategies - Long-term capital is expected to enter the market, with equity investments contributing to greater flexibility in returns [3][4] - The investment portfolio structure is shifting towards a higher proportion of equities, while maintaining a high level of bond investments [3] - Under IFRS 9, the investment portfolio is likely to see an increase in other comprehensive income (OCI), focusing on high-dividend and high-return assets for certainty [3] Embedded Value - The NBV is expected to continue improving, with a focus on asset-liability matching capabilities among leading insurance companies [3][4] - The shift towards participating insurance and improved cost control in channels is likely to mitigate the negative impacts of long-term investment return assumptions [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities during stock price corrections, with a focus on companies like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, New China Life, and China Life in the A-share market, as well as Sunshine Insurance, China Property & Casualty, and China Taiping in the Hong Kong market [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec as strong investment opportunities due to their robust earnings and high dividend yields [4][14]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are expected to keep oil prices fluctuating at high levels, with Brent crude oil prices recently reaching $77.01 per barrel, reflecting a 3.75% increase week-on-week [3][40]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have adjusted their forecasts for 2025, predicting an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to an anticipated surplus in the oil market [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, as ongoing conflicts could significantly impact oil supply and pricing dynamics [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report notes that geopolitical conflicts are causing fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices recently dropping below $71 per barrel before rebounding [1][9]. - The EIA and IEA have revised their 2025 forecasts, projecting global oil supply at 10435 million barrels per day and demand at 10353 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 82000 barrels per day [2][10]. 2. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $77.01 per barrel, up 3.75% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose to $73.84 per barrel, a 1.18% increase [3][40]. - The report highlights a significant rise in natural gas prices, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $3.90 per million British thermal units, marking a 10.06% increase week-on-week [11][48]. 3. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5]. - Companies such as Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas are highlighted for their growth potential, particularly in the context of domestic policies encouraging oil and gas production [4][14]. 4. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production remains stable at 13.43 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput has decreased to 16.86 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report indicates a decline in commercial crude oil inventories by 1,147 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have increased [12][13]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec, as they are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and robust earnings [4][14].