公 司 报 告 2025年03月31日 电子 时代电气(688187.SH) 轨道交通领域夯基拓新，产业经营再创新高 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:47.85元 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 公司公布2024年年报，2024年，公司实现销售收入249.09亿元，同比增长 13.42%；实现归母净利润37.03亿元，同比增长21.77%；实现扣非归母净利 润32.26亿元，同比增长24.28%（注：公司于2024年12月收购湖南中车商用 车动力科技有限公司100%股权，将其纳入合并财务报表范围，此为追溯调整 后数据）。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金股利人民币10元（含税）。 平安观点： 证 券 公 司 年 报 点 评 XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,799 | 24,909 | 27,597 | 31,662 | 36,384 | | YOY(%) | 20.9 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 14.7 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to become a financing hub and investment value high ground for technology innovation industries due to the upgrade of the US-China technology competition and favorable domestic policies [2][5][28] - Since the beginning of the year, the technology innovation boom has not only led the Hong Kong stock market to outperform globally but has also resulted in a recovery in Hong Kong IPOs, with a significant increase in refinancing scale driven by leading technology companies like BYD and Xiaomi [2][5][12] - The report notes that the number of companies waiting to go public in Hong Kong has surged, particularly among leading A-share companies, with technology and overseas expansion sectors being the main forces driving this trend [2][6][28] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has more flexible and lower listing requirements compared to the A-share market, particularly benefiting companies with high market value but relatively insufficient technology attributes [2][14][27] - The report identifies three major trends among Chinese companies that have recently listed in Hong Kong: an increase in market capitalization, a rise in the number of technology companies, and accelerated overseas expansion [2][20][28] - The report emphasizes that the performance of "A+H" companies in the Hong Kong market has been superior, indicating a positive outlook for companies that have listed in Hong Kong [2][23][28] Group 3 - The report outlines that the tightening of IPO regulations in the A-share market and increased scrutiny of Chinese companies seeking to list in the US have contributed to the recovery of Hong Kong IPOs [2][14][17] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has continuously optimized its listing system to attract companies, while domestic policies have expanded the channels for companies to list overseas, further facilitating the trend of Chinese companies going public in Hong Kong [2][14][27] - The report states that the number of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong has significantly increased, with these companies gradually becoming the main force in Hong Kong IPOs [2][28]

证券研究报告 如何看待核心城市土拍升温 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年3月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：成交环比提升，深圳探索房票制度。随着供给端逐步放量，本周重点50城新房成交环比增长27.1%，3月前28天日均成交同 比降8.4%，但受制于2024年主流房企补货不足及工期影响，优质供给不足仍是制约新房成交重要因素。本周深圳出台关于规范城市更 新的若干意见，涉及房票补偿、容积率灵活调整、加大融资支持等方面，有望解决市场化主导下资金平衡问题，但后续仍需观察资金 落地、居民拆迁意愿等。 土拍升温，侧面印证"好房子+一二线核心区"率先止跌回稳。近期杭州、成都等地土拍市场升温，多宗土地楼面地价创新高。我们认 为房企年初补地一方面为应对2024年补货不足带来的可售货值下降；另一方面正如"春江水暖鸭先知"，核心城市优质地块升温正侧 面印证我们持续强调的"好房子+一二线核心区"率先止跌回稳逻辑。部分投资者担忧地价上升带来毛利率下滑，但我们认为核心地块 "去化流速"保障更为重要，同时"好房子"带来的产品溢价也将利于项目保持较高毛利率，实现毛 ...

证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 任书康 一般从业资格编号：S1060123050035 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2025年3月31日 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：近两周除QDII外ETF产品表现整体不佳。主要宽基ETF中，跟踪中证A50的产品跌幅最小，行业与主题产品中，医药行业ETF涨幅最大。 近两周，大部分宽基ETF资金净流出，沪深300ETF资金净流出额最大。累计资金流向方面，3月以来各类宽基ETF资金均有所流出，沪深300和A系列指数出量 较大，近两周资金仍流出但流出速度有所减慢，科创、创业ETF资金净流入；近两周科技ETF资金流入速度放缓，金融地产和消费ETF资金净流入；受债市反 弹影响，3月以来国债ETF加速流入抄底，近两周国债、信用债、政金债ETF资金净流入，短融ETF资金流出速度放缓。 • 产品结构分布：截至3月28日，近两周市场新成立 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][4][7] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 821.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 365.9 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [4][7] - The annualized weighted average ROE was reported at 9.9% [4] - The company’s total asset size reached 48.8 trillion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 8.8% and deposits by 3.9% [4][7] - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a dividend of 1.646 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30% [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s net interest margin for 2024 was 1.42%, down 19 basis points year-on-year, with a loan yield decrease of 41 basis points to 3.4% [7][9] - Non-interest income saw a decline of 1.9% year-on-year, while other non-interest income increased by 9.3% [7][9] - The company’s asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.34%, down 2 basis points year-on-year [8][10] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 215%, indicating a strong risk-bearing capacity [8][10] Future Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.03 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.09 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 3.4% [7][11] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow at a rate of 9.2% in 2024, with loan growth projected at 8.7% [11][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [35] Core Views - The report indicates that the white liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. The market is expected to see single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025 for major white liquor companies, supported by strong performance from core products. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4][8] - In the food sector, the report highlights the emergence of new products in the snack industry and suggests investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain. The snack industry is experiencing high growth due to channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery [6][9] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index saw a cumulative increase of 0.23% this week, with top performers including Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Guizhou Moutai (+0.73%). Conversely, Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) were the worst performers [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-end white liquor with strong demand (Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range white liquor with ongoing national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor with expanding price ranges (Yinjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, Gujing Gongjiu) [6][4] Food Industry - The food index experienced a cumulative decline of 0.41% this week, with top gainers being Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The worst performers included Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the snack sector and suggests monitoring companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. It also notes a potential slight recovery in the catering industry, recommending attention to related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, with specific mentions of Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods [6][9] Individual Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a stable operational rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, aiming to bolster market confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, with a focus on marketing reforms and channel expansion [7] - In the food sector, East Peng Beverage reported a 45.34% revenue increase, while Haitian Flavoring showed a 9.38% revenue growth, indicating resilience in their respective markets [10][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue dropping to 5.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, and net profit falling to 350 million yuan, down 80.5% [3][7] - The company is focusing on channel health and inventory reduction amid macroeconomic pressures, which has led to a decline in sales across various segments [7][8] - A stock incentive plan has been introduced to boost morale among executives and core employees, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth over the next three years [8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024 revenue: 5.36 billion yuan, 2025 estimated revenue: 5.95 billion yuan, 2026 estimated revenue: 6.57 billion yuan, 2027 estimated revenue: 7.24 billion yuan [6][10] - 2024 net profit: 350 million yuan, 2025 estimated net profit: 708 million yuan, 2026 estimated net profit: 789 million yuan, 2027 estimated net profit: 877 million yuan [6][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 65.5%, with a net margin of 6.5% [10] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.1% in 2024 to 10.2% by 2027 [10] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is 55.6, decreasing to 21.9 by 2027 [10] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 2.8 in 2024 to 2.2 in 2027 [10] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core products and improve its market position despite short-term challenges, with expectations for revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025 compared to 2024 [8]

公 司 报 告 银行 2025 年 3 月 31 日 建设银行(601939.SH) 营收降幅收窄，资负扩张稳健 推荐（维持） 股价：8.52 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 银行 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.ccb.com;www.ccb.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 中央汇金投资有限责任公司/57.14% | | 实际控制人 | 中国投资有限责任公司 | | 总股本(百万股) | 250,011 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 9,594 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 240,417 | | 总市值（亿元） | 15,681 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 817 | | 每股净资产(元) | 12.65 | | 资产负债率(%) | 91.8 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】建设银行（601939.SH）*季报点评*盈利 同比回正，资产质量整体稳健*推荐20241101 | | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | 袁喆奇 | | | | S1060520080003 | | | YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.c ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the capital replenishment by major banks will support long-term stable operations, with a sustainable growth outlook for profitability post-capital increase [4][5]. - The report notes that the current dividend yield for the banking sector is at 4.2%, which remains high compared to the risk-free rate, indicating continued value in dividend allocation [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for the banking sector, particularly in relation to real estate and consumer sectors, which could catalyze improvements in bank performance [6]. Summary by Sections Capital Increase Details - On March 30, 2025, four major state-owned banks announced a capital increase plan totaling 520 billion yuan, with the Ministry of Finance contributing 500 billion yuan [2][5]. - The individual issuance sizes for the banks range from 105 billion to 165 billion yuan, with premium issuance rates between 9% and 22% based on the closing price on March 28 [5][7]. Capital Adequacy Ratios - Post-capital increase, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios for the banks are projected to improve: CCB to 15.1%, BOC to 12.7%, BC to 12.0%, and PSBC to 11.0% [5][8]. - This capital enhancement is expected to better support the real economy and improve risk absorption capabilities, particularly in retail asset quality [5]. Earnings and Dividend Impact - The capital increase is expected to slightly dilute earnings per share (EPS) and dividend yields, with EPS for the banks projected to decrease by 2.2% to 9.4% post-issuance [5][8]. - The static dividend yields are expected to decline marginally, with CCB at 4.6%, BOC at 4.2%, BC at 4.7%, and PSBC at 4.6% after the capital increase [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical stocks with high dividends, as the banking sector's static price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 0.66, indicating a significant margin of safety [6]. - Specific banks are highlighted for investment based on their fundamentals and expected recovery from policy support, including regional banks and those with strong dividend profiles [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) [1][3] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China achieved a revenue of 710.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][7] - The bank's total assets reached 43.2 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year growth, with total loans increasing by 10.1% and deposits by 4.9% [4][7] - The bank's net interest margin for the year was 1.42%, down 18 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on asset pricing [7][12] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.30%, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating stable asset quality [8][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's net interest income grew by 1.6% year-on-year, while non-interest income increased by 5.5% [7][9] - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.81 yuan, with expected growth rates of 4.1% for 2025 and 5.6% for 2026 [6][12] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio for corporate loans decreased by 25 basis points to 1.58%, while the retail loan NPL ratio increased by 30 basis points to 1.03% [8][11] - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains high at 300%, ensuring stable risk mitigation capabilities [8][11] Growth Projections - The bank's total assets are expected to grow to 47 trillion yuan by 2025, with loan growth projected at 10% annually [10][12] - The report anticipates a steady increase in net interest income, with projections of 586.6 billion yuan in 2025 [11][12]