Group 1 - The report highlights the issuance of opinions by the Central Committee and the State Council aimed at enhancing social security and improving public services, which includes various sectors such as healthcare, education, and housing [2][22] - The report notes that the rare earth sector has led the market, with pharmaceutical-related concepts performing strongly, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2][21] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 13,682 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity despite a decrease in the number of stocks rising [2][21] Group 2 - The report discusses the economic data for May, indicating a mild recovery with industrial value-added growth at 5.8% and retail sales growth at 6.4%, marking a new high since 2024 [5][29] - It emphasizes the divergence in recovery across sectors, with consumption being the strongest performer while investment remains sluggish, particularly in real estate [5][29] - The report suggests that policy-driven effects are crucial for supporting macroeconomic recovery, highlighting the role of monetary and fiscal policies in sustaining growth [5][30] Group 3 - The report on the computer industry indicates a significant rise in the supply of stablecoins, reaching 214 billion USD by February 2025, which is expected to reshape cross-border payment systems [10][37] - It notes the emergence of decentralized stablecoins, with USDe's market cap increasing from 146 million to 6.2 billion USD within a year, indicating a growing trend in the sector [10][37] - The report forecasts a market space for stablecoins to reach between 1.6 to 3.7 trillion USD by 2030, suggesting substantial growth potential in this area [10][37] Group 4 - The report on the construction materials sector highlights the sustained growth in infrastructure investment, particularly in the central and western regions of China, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% in water conservancy investment [12][12] - It points out the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with sales area declining by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a need for further policy support [12][12] - The report suggests that cement demand remains weak, but companies may still achieve profit growth despite reduced volumes, as indicated by recent price increases [12][12]

Economic Data Overview - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April; retail sales grew by 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April; fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, down from 4.0% in April [1][7] - The economic data indicates a mild recovery with notable differentiation across sectors, characterized by strong consumption, stable production, and sluggish investment [1][7] Consumption Insights - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, the highest growth rate since 2024 [12][14] - Durable goods consumption surged significantly, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales soaring by 53.0% year-on-year, a record monthly growth [14] - The "old-for-new" policy and early promotions for the "618" shopping festival have stimulated consumer spending, but future consumption momentum may weaken as policy benefits diminish [17][12] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, while maintaining a month-on-month growth of 0.6% [18][21] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.8 percentage points [21][18] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing investment at 8.5% and infrastructure investment at 5.6%, indicating resilience [24][27] - Real estate investment remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7%, reflecting a significant drop in sales area and sales volume [28][29] Policy Impact - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, implementing measures such as a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions to support economic recovery [7][8] - Active fiscal policies are also in place, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds, including 300 billion yuan to support the "old-for-new" consumption initiative [8][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 17 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|新一轮以伊冲突下各类资产表现如何？》 1）以伊冲突爆发后，美股短期内恐慌情绪迅速上升，标普 500 指数收跌 1.13%，而 CBOE 波动率指数大幅上涨 15.54%，VIX 指数仍处于历史低位附 近。2）避险需求推动黄金上涨 1.40%，原油价格大幅上涨 8.39%。3）中 国权益市场在地缘冲突表现承压，6/13 沪深 300 和恒生指数分别收跌 0.72%和 0.63%。4）美元指数在两段冲突时期表现不一。2022 年由于美国 进入加息周期，美元指数大幅走强，也取代了黄金、比特币成为了当时优 先级较高的避险资产，而 23Q4 巴以冲突时期，美国加息周期结束，美元 走弱，比特币、黄金则表现强于美元。3、总的来说：1）国际：美国 5 月通胀、核心通胀均低于市场预期，5 月 CPI 同比增长 2.4%，前值 2.3%， 预期 2.5%，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，前值 2.8%，预期 2.9%。2）国内：通胀增 速保持低位。5 月 CPI 同比跌幅持平，PPI 同比降幅走阔，PPI-CPI 剪刀差 走阔。6 月， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [40] Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 141.6 billion CNY over the past week, with a total net inflow of 6244.2 billion CNY year-to-date, representing 83.9% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] - Major internet companies are currently valued at relatively low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with Meituan at 17, Tencent at 16, and Alibaba at 12 for the year 2025 [1] - The AI sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the launch of upgraded models and new applications, indicating a positive trend in commercializing AI technologies [1][19] Summary by Sections Southbound Funds - The report highlights a strong focus on Meituan, which received a net purchase of 56.75 billion CNY from southbound funds [1][35] - Other notable stocks with significant net purchases include BYD with 29.79 billion CNY and China Construction Bank with 22.05 billion CNY [35] AI Developments - The report discusses the advancements in AI, particularly the upgrade of the Doubao model to version 1.6, which shows significant improvements in reasoning and instruction-following capabilities [19] - The introduction of new models for video generation and podcasting further emphasizes the ongoing innovation in the AI sector [19] Online Music and IP Market - Tencent Music's acquisition of the online audio platform Ximalaya is expected to enhance its long audio content strategy [3] - The report notes the high demand for IP-related stocks, particularly in the collectible toy sector, with companies like Pop Mart and Blukoo being highlighted as key players [2] Automotive Sector - The report indicates a positive outlook for smart driving technologies, with Tesla's Robotaxi set to begin operations and domestic players like Li Auto and Xpeng reaching critical milestones [2] - The trend of equipping vehicles with laser radar is becoming standard among leading manufacturers, suggesting a robust future for companies like Hesai Technology and Horizon Robotics [2][12] Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a comparative analysis of major companies' market capitalizations and PE ratios, with Alibaba at 20374 million CNY and a PE of 12, while Tencent stands at 43340 million CNY with a PE of 16 [30] - The automotive companies Li Auto and Xpeng are noted for their low price-to-sales (PS) ratios, indicating potential undervaluation compared to their U.S. counterparts [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 137.06 CNY [6][21]. Core Views - The acquisition of Zhongke Shuguang by Haiguang Information is expected to create significant synergies, transitioning the company from a single chip business to a comprehensive domestic computing power ecosystem solution [2]. - The merger is anticipated to enhance business collaboration, reduce friction costs, and establish a complete chain from chip design to end applications, forming a closed loop for domestic computing power [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the high growth potential in the domestic computing industry, particularly in the context of the "Xinchuang 2.0" phase, which is expected to accelerate demand in government and industry sectors [5]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2023 is 6,012 million CNY, with a growth rate of 17.30%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 26,528 million CNY, with a growth rate of 27.28% [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 1,263.18 million CNY, with an expected increase to 6,921.88 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 29.97% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 2.98 CNY in 2027 [5]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to increase from 4,039.40 million CNY in 2023 to 10,274.39 million CNY in 2027 [5]. Market Position and Trends - Haiguang Information is recognized as a leader in the domestic computing power sector, and the acquisition of Zhongke Shuguang is expected to enhance its market position [5]. - The company is likely to benefit from the increasing demand in the Xinchuang industry, with the replacement volume in the new phase expected to be nearly nine times that of the previous phase [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for AI infrastructure, as evidenced by Oracle's financial results, which exceeded expectations, and OpenAI's new model pricing significantly dropping [3][10]. - The AI industry is transitioning from a capability validation phase to large-scale commercialization, with increasing usage and revenue from AI applications [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Oracle - Oracle's FY25Q4 revenue reached $15.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate [10]. - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $138 billion, an increase of 41% year-on-year, with cloud RPO accounting for nearly 80% [10][15]. - The company expects FY26 RPO growth to exceed 100%, driven by strong demand for cloud infrastructure [11][15]. Adobe - Adobe reported a record quarterly revenue of $5.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding expectations [16]. - The company raised its revenue guidance for FY25, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products [18]. - The Firefly AI platform saw a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase in traffic, with paid subscriptions nearly doubling [18]. Global AI Dynamics - ByteDance's new models, including the Doubao 1.6, have seen a 137-fold increase in daily token usage compared to last year, indicating rapid growth in AI application demand [26]. - OpenAI's o3-Pro model was released with an 80% price reduction, significantly enhancing the cost structure for AI applications [30]. - AMD launched the Instinct MI350 series AI chips, boasting a 35-fold increase in inference performance, positioning itself competitively against NVIDIA [35].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects in the energy sector, with a projected hydrogen production capacity exceeding 50 million tons by 2024, positioning China as the world's largest hydrogen producer [1][13] - The basic chemical sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 0.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.66 percentage points, ranking 10th among all sectors [4][16] - Key chemical products have experienced price fluctuations, with hydrochloric acid increasing by 47.1% and WTI crude oil rising by 13% [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Key News Tracking - The hydrogen energy pilot projects include four major areas: hydrogen production, storage and transportation, application, and common support, with 11 specific pilot directions [1][13] - The domestic market for adipic acid has seen a price increase of 450 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.63% compared to the previous week, driven by cost and supply factors [3] 2. Product Price Tracking - The prices of key products such as PVC and ethylene have increased by 0.4%, while TDI and urea have decreased by 6.7% and 5.6% respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases include hydrochloric acid (+47.1%), WTI crude oil (+13%), and pure benzene (+8.7%) [2][30] 3. Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's PB ratio is 2, while the overall A-share market's PB is 1.47 [25] - The PE ratio for the basic chemical sector stands at 24.07, compared to 15.22 for the overall A-share market [25] 4. Key Industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, while also highlighting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like organic silicon [5] - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical for MDI and Jiangsu Huachang for agricultural chemicals [5]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the evolution of Apple from iPhone 1 to iPhone 4, highlighting how it reshaped the smartphone standard and established a composite profit system through hardware, services, and ecosystem integration [3][10] - The report discusses Li Auto's transition from range-extended vehicles to pure electric and AI integration, indicating a gradual enhancement of its competitive moat [4][34] Summary by Sections Apple Review - The iPhone 1 launched in 2007 revolutionized smartphones by changing interaction logic, functionality, design, and software ecosystem [10] - By 2024, iPhone products accounted for 51.45% of Apple's revenue, while services contributed 24.59% with a high gross margin of 73.9%, indicating a significant shift towards service profitability [3][16] Li Auto - Li Auto's product definition capabilities have redefined the home SUV market, with the Li ONE and the popular L series establishing a strong brand identity [4][23] - The company has successfully addressed key issues in the electric vehicle market, such as range anxiety and charging concerns, through its range-extended technology [4][33] - Li Auto is advancing towards L4 autonomous driving capabilities, with significant developments in AI and intelligent driving systems [34][38]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for a "greater effort to stabilize the real estate market" and to construct a new development model for the industry, which is crucial for promoting stable, healthy, and high-quality development [10][11] - The report indicates that the current market requires urgent solutions to the contradictions between supply and demand, particularly regarding inventory and expectations [11] - The policy direction suggests a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with expectations of continued easing measures [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the basic point of inflection for the industry may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policy support to continue [13] - Recommended investment focus includes non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and policy relief, leading real estate companies with product advantages, regional companies with differentiated fundamentals, and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction activity [13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - From June 7 to June 13, the transaction area for new homes was 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, showing a month-on-month improvement of 5.65 percentage points [17] - The cumulative inventory reached 105.99 million square meters, with accelerated absorption in second-tier cities and slower absorption in first-tier and lower-tier cities [17] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same period, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 1.89 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, reflecting a decline of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous month [26] - The transaction area for first-tier, second-tier, and lower-tier cities was 0.50 million, 1.30 million, and 0.09 million square meters, respectively [26] Land Market - From June 2 to June 8, the total land transaction area was 1.438 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decrease of 1.57% [35] - The total transaction amount reached 30.7 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 17.93% [35]

Group 1 - The report indicates a continued compression of credit spreads, with a notable divergence in performance among different credit types. Short-term credit, particularly short-term perpetual bonds, experienced a slight pullback after a rapid decline in interest rates in early June. Low-rated city investment bonds saw yields decrease by over 5 basis points within a year, while mid to high-grade credit bonds extended their durations, increasing participation in bonds with maturities of 5 years or more [1][10][19] - Institutional buying power for credit bonds has significantly increased, with net purchases reaching a new high for the year. Public funds and other products contributed the majority of this buying, while banks and insurance companies showed relatively weaker support, focusing more on certificates of deposit and local government bonds [2][15][19] - Since mid-May, there has been a slight increase in the primary supply of ultra-long credit bonds (maturities over 5 years), with overall issuance not considered weak. Institutions have shown a higher bidding sentiment for ultra-long credits compared to shorter maturities [3][32][34] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the report suggests that credit bonds with favorable supply-demand dynamics may continue to experience spread compression in a fluctuating interest rate environment. Short-term credit spreads are already extremely compressed, limiting their attractiveness. The central bank's loose monetary policy may allow for some movement in line with interest rate trends, but further compression appears limited [5][44] - For mid to long-term credits, the report anticipates that spreads may still compress, with a preference for bonds with maturities of 5 years or more. The report also highlights the potential for 4-year bonds to provide attractive yields [5][44] - The report emphasizes that ultra-long bonds remain appealing for institutions with stable liabilities, as they offer better coupon advantages compared to interest rates. However, institutions with strong liquidity needs should manage their positions carefully to avoid potential capital loss risks [5][44]