市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

万联证券版权所有发送给杭州同花顺数据开发有限公司 .同花顺.yjbg@myhexin.com p1 证券研究报告|家用电器 强于大市(维持) 2024Q4 及 2025Q1 业绩增速走高 [Table_ReportType] ——家用电器行业跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 24Q4 在内销政策驱动、外销高景气的双重助推下家电业绩明 显回升，25Q1 在关税战扰动下抢出口效应叠加以旧换新政策 加力实施，推动家电行业业绩进一步走高；展望后市，内销 方面，以旧换新政策延续，产业在线 5-7 月内销排产数据保 持稳健增长，预期 Q2 内销表现或保持稳定增长；外销方 面，近期中美撤销 91%关税并暂停 24%关税，关税对家电外 销的压力得到缓解，同时我国家电外销对美敞口较小，叠加 前期关税战对市场预期影响较充分，预计 Q2 外销增长或将 保持平稳，我们维持行业"强于大市"评级。建议关注受益 于关税战风险缓释的出口链相关标的、经营稳健具有高股息 率的白电龙头标的等。 投资要点： ⚫ 家电 2024 年度业绩增速较上一年回落，较前三季度回升：收入 端，2024 ...

万联证券版权所有发送给杭州同花顺数据开发有限公司 .同花顺.yjbg@myhexin.com p1 [Table_ReportType] ——传媒行业跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 2025 年 Q1 SW 传媒行业指数上升 6.37%，资金保持高活跃度，估值 （PE-TTM）震荡调整，跑赢近七年均值水平。从 2025 年 Q1 的基金 重仓配置情况看，SW 传媒行业仍处于低配，以 SW 传媒行业重仓为基 准，游戏板块及广告营销板块受到市场关注，维持超配，基金重仓 配置集中，抱团现象较为显著。 投资要点： 传媒行业重仓配置维持低配，游戏及广告营销板块仍为市场关注重 点。2025 年 Q1 SW 传媒行业的适配比例为 1.71%，基金重仓比例为 1.04%，低配比例为 0.68%，环比来看有所修复。以 SW 传媒行业重仓 为基准，游戏板块与广告营销维持超配，其余子板块持续低配。 游戏板块占据前十大重仓股主要部分，市场关注度较高。从持股市值 来看， 2025 年 Q1 SW 传媒行业的前十大重仓股分别为分众传媒、恺 英网络、芒果超媒、巨人网络、完美世界 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 15 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周三 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.86%，深成指收 涨 0.64%，创业板指收涨 1.01%。沪深两市成交额 13165.99 亿元；申 万行业方面，非银金融、交通运输、食品饮料领涨，国防军工、美容 护理、机械设备领跌；概念板块方面，中韩自贸区、航运概念、自由 贸易港概念涨幅居前，HJT 电池、BC 电池、TOPCON 电池概念跌幅居 前；港股方面，恒生指数收涨 2.3%，恒生科技指数收涨 2.13%；海外 方面，美国三大指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.64%，标普 500 收涨 0.72%， 纳指收涨 0.72%。 【重要新闻】 【美国调整对华加征关税】于美东时间 5 月 14 日凌晨 0 时 01 分，美 国撤销对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，调整实施 34%的对等关税 措施，其中 24%的关税暂停加征 90 天，保留剩余 10%的关税。同时， 美方还将对中国小额包裹的国际邮件从价税率 ...

Investment Rating - The cosmetics industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [3] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the cosmetics industry has been relatively weak due to internal and external factors, but some companies have achieved impressive revenue and net profit growth through strong product capabilities and flexible marketing strategies. With the gradual economic recovery and the introduction of consumption-boosting policies, further demand recovery is expected in the second half of the year. In the medium to long term, some domestic beauty brands are enhancing R&D investment and standing out due to their outstanding product capabilities amid the rise of domestic trends. Additionally, stricter industry regulations are favorable for compliant leading enterprises. It is recommended to focus on domestic cosmetics leaders with strong R&D, product strength, and marketing capabilities [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 1, 2025, to May 6, 2025, the cosmetics sector rose by 29.07%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 32.28 percentage points. The brand segment increased by 31.08%, while the raw materials segment faced a decline of 20.37% [10][13] - Individual stock performance highlights include Bawei Co. leading the OEM segment, Ruoyuchen leading the operation segment, and Jinbo Biological, Marubi, and Shanghai Jahwa leading the brand segment [13][14] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit: The raw materials segment faced pressure, while some leading companies in the OEM and brand segments showed impressive performance. For instance, Bawei Co. reported a revenue increase of 48.27% and a net profit increase of 10.28% in 2024 [16][17] - Gross and net profit margins: Most beauty companies saw an increase in gross margins in Q1 2025. Qing Song Co. improved its profitability due to continuous innovation in cosmetic raw materials and product formula optimization [20][21] - Inventory turnover and operating capital turnover: Bawei Co. had the highest inventory turnover rate in the cosmetics sector at 6.93 times, while the operating capital turnover rate for the brand segment was also generally above 1 [23] Valuation Situation - The valuation levels of individual stocks are varied. In 2025, the PE ratios for leading companies like Lafang and Ruoyuchen are relatively high at 64 and 49 times, respectively, while companies like Kesi and Fulejia have lower PE ratios of 17 and 18 times [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.13% and 0.12% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1,291.365 billion yuan [2][7] - The banking, beauty care, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while the defense, computer, and machinery sectors experienced declines [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.87%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 3.26%, indicating a challenging environment for Hong Kong stocks [2][7] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones decreased by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.72% and 1.61% respectively, reflecting a mixed sentiment in the overseas markets [2][7] Industry Analysis - The electric power equipment sector saw a decrease in the total market value held by public funds, amounting to 276.574 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decline of 14.21% quarter-on-quarter but a slight increase of 3.05% year-on-year [9][10] - The sector's overweight ratio fell to 3.29%, down 1.60 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a reduced preference among funds for this sector [9][10] - The top five and ten holdings in the electric power equipment sector showed an increase in concentration, with the CR5 and CR10 ratios rising to 68.70% and 75.59% respectively, while the CR20 ratio decreased [10][11] - The battery and photovoltaic equipment segments faced significant reductions in holdings, while the wind power equipment sector saw increased interest due to accelerated project implementations [11][12] Social Services Sector - The social services sector reported a total revenue of 190.795 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.95%, but the net profit dropped by 31.26% to 7.366 billion yuan [13][14] - The tourism and scenic area segment achieved a revenue of 35.423 billion yuan, up 15.24% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 7.19% [13][14] - The hotel and catering segment, however, experienced a revenue decline of 1.49% to 29.853 billion yuan, with net profit falling by 19.73% [14][15] - The report suggests that the implementation of vacation policies and the expansion of the inbound consumption market will continue to drive growth in the tourism and related sectors [14][15]

营收增长利润承压，旅游景区业绩稳健 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2024 年业绩综述报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 社会服务板块全年业绩增收不增利。2024 年上市公司业绩出炉，社会 服务板块增收不增利，营业收入合计 1907.95 亿元，同比增长 6.95%， 在申万一级行业中排名第 3；归母净利润合计 73.66 亿元，同比下降 31.26%，在申万一级行业中排名第 22。 旅游及景区板块：2024 年旅游及景区板块实现营收 354.23 亿元，同比 +15.24%，归母净利润 16.73 亿元，同比+7.19%。五一黄金周居民旅游 热情高涨，旅游市场持续回暖。调休工作日的减少使得更多游客选择拼 假开启早鸟游或节末错峰游，推动长线游目的地表现亮眼，各地创新和 丰富消费场景，以多元供给激发消费潜力、市场活力，为游客带来深度 体验。 3288 酒店餐饮板块：2024 年酒店餐饮板块实现营收 298.53 亿元，同比- 1.49%，归母净利润 15.67 亿元，同比-19.73%。消费承压导致板块业绩 出现波动，全年表现不佳。行业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market" with expectations of a relative increase in index performance over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The total market value of public funds heavily invested in the SW power equipment industry decreased by 14.21% quarter-on-quarter to 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, while showing a slight year-on-year increase of 3.05% [1][15]. - The overweight ratio for the industry has declined to 3.29%, down 1.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.21 percentage points year-on-year [1][15]. - The SW power equipment industry ranks third among 31 Shenwan primary industries in terms of fund holding market value, following electronics and food and beverage [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The SW power equipment industry saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease in fund holding market value, with a total of 276.57 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 14.21% decline [1][15]. - The industry’s overweight ratio is 3.29%, which is a decrease from previous quarters [1][15]. Subsector Analysis - The battery, photovoltaic equipment, and grid equipment sectors experienced a decline in fund holding values, while the wind power and motor sectors saw significant increases, with wind power holdings rising by 54.76% and motor holdings by 100.88% [21][22]. - The total market value for the wind power sector reached 89.75 billion yuan, while the motor sector reached 34.25 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [21][22]. Stock Trends - The top ten stocks in the SW power equipment industry include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, with varied performance; stocks like Keda and Deye saw significant gains, while JA Solar and Tongwei experienced notable declines [3][30]. - The top ten stocks that saw increased holdings include Zhenyu Technology and Longi Green Energy, while major reductions were observed in stocks like CATL and Sungrow [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading stocks in the lithium battery sector due to stable growth in new energy vehicle production, as well as on wind power equipment stocks supported by government initiatives [36]. - Emerging technologies such as AI and solid-state battery advancements are expected to drive demand in related sectors, presenting potential investment opportunities [36].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,308.276 billion yuan. The leading sectors included defense and military, electric equipment, and machinery, while agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and public utilities lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 5.16%. In overseas markets, the three major US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, the S&P 500 up 3.26%, and the Nasdaq up 4.35% [2][7] Important News - The joint statement from the high-level China-US economic and trade talks indicated that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar cancellation. Both sides will establish mechanisms for ongoing consultations regarding economic and trade relations [8] - According to the China Automobile Industry Association, in April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units, with year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2% [3][8] Industry Analysis - The SW Electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of 3,329.907 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 129.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.07%, indicating improved profitability [9] - In Q1 2025, the SW Electronics industry is expected to achieve revenue of 823.831 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.98%, and a net profit of 34.263 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.58% [9] - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to recover in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this upward trend. The integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design sub-sectors are expected to return to profitability, driven by terminal recovery, AI computing power construction, and self-control demand [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating an expected increase in the industry index relative to the broader market by over 10% in the next six months [4][50]. Core Insights - In 2024, the SW electronics industry is projected to achieve operating revenue of CNY 3,329.907 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.90%. The gross margin is expected to be 15.47%, a slight decline of 0.31 percentage points, primarily due to raw material cost pressures. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be CNY 129.296 billion, a significant increase of 43.07% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][13]. - For Q1 2025, the industry is expected to generate revenue of CNY 823.831 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a net profit of CNY 34.263 billion, up 29.58% year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly three years for Q1 [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The SW electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with 2024 showing a significant improvement in revenue and net profit. The overall expense ratio has decreased, indicating better cost control [1][13]. - Q1 2025 marks a new high for both revenue and net profit, with double-digit year-on-year growth [1][19]. 2. Subsector Analysis - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to see a recovery in 2024, with Q1 2025 continuing this trend. Key subsectors like integrated circuit manufacturing and analog chip design have returned to profitability, driven by demand from terminal recovery and AI computing [2][20]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Performance is mixed, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth due to raw material cost pressures. New product launches and promotional events are expected to boost demand [2][24]. - **Optoelectronics**: The panel sector has turned profitable due to improved supply dynamics, while the optical components sector continues to grow, reflecting overall recovery [2][29]. - **Components**: The sector benefits from the high demand in the AI computing supply chain, with significant growth in revenue and profit expected [3][34]. - **Electronic Chemicals**: Steady revenue growth is anticipated, with improved profitability in Q1 2025 due to the semiconductor industry's recovery [3][40]. - **Other Electronics**: This sector shows revenue growth, but profit growth lags behind, indicating potential cost pressures [3][46]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The SW electronics industry is expected to achieve overall year-on-year growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with varying performance across subsectors. Key areas to watch include digital chip design, advanced packaging, and PCB sectors, which are showing signs of improved profitability [3][46].