- The SKEW index has reached historical highs, signaling elevated tail risk concerns. Specifically, the SKEW values for major indices are as follows: CSI 1000 SKEW at 110.41, CSI 500 SKEW at 99.92, SSE 50 SKEW at 101.43, and CSI 300 SKEW at 106.06[4][73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects market expectations of future volatility. As of August 1, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for major indices are: SSE 50 VIX at 19.16, CSI 300 VIX at 19.22, CSI 500 VIX at 23.22, and CSI 1000 VIX at 22.76[4][64][66] - The SKEW index measures implied volatility skew across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment regarding tail risks. A SKEW value above 100 indicates heightened concerns about potential market downturns, often associated with increased demand for out-of-the-money put options[73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index incorporates term structures to reflect volatility expectations across different time horizons, providing insights into investor sentiment for various periods[64][66][70] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) adjusted annualized basis spread declined to -10.33%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) adjusted annualized basis spread fell to -11.85%[22][39][46] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy achieved weekly returns of 0.55%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy delivered weekly returns of 0.32%[4][49][60] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -2.80% to -1.04%, with volatility between 3.84% and 4.63%, and maximum drawdown from -8.65% to -7.97%[49][50][52] - The CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -6.03% to -3.84%, with volatility between 4.73% and 5.57%, and maximum drawdown from -14.00% to -11.11%[60][61][62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that British American Tobacco's (BAT) new tobacco products are showing signs of profitability recovery, particularly the HNB product Hilo, which is expected to drive future earnings growth [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, BAT reported revenues of £12.069 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, but a 1.8% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates. New tobacco product revenues remained stable at £1.651 billion, accounting for 13.7% of total revenue [2][3] - The adjusted gross margin for new tobacco products increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.6%, which is 10 percentage points higher than traditional cigarettes, indicating a potential for continued profitability improvement [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, BAT's revenue from new tobacco products was £1.651 billion, with a stable year-on-year performance and a 2.4% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates. This segment accounted for 13.7% of total revenue, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The overall tobacco market is expected to see a 2% decline in sales volume globally in 2025, while BAT anticipates its own growth to be between 1% and 2%, with new tobacco products expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth [2] Product Performance - The vaping segment saw revenues of £740 million in H1 2025, down 15.3% year-on-year, with a volume of 250 million units sold, a decrease of 12.9%. The decline in the US was attributed to illegal disposable products and inventory disruptions, while the European market is recovering due to improved regulatory conditions [2][3] - The HNB segment generated £440 million in revenue, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Sales volume was 10.1 billion units, up 1.6%. The APMEA region showed an 8.7% increase in HNB sales, driven by significant contributions from Japan and Kazakhstan [3] - The oral tobacco segment experienced a revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year, reaching £470 million, with a global market share increase of 4.4 percentage points. The US market saw a remarkable revenue growth of 372% year-on-year, driven by the successful nationwide launch of Velo Plus [4] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for HNB products to continue driving growth, with a focus on product iteration and market expansion. Key companies to watch include Smoore International, China National Tobacco Corporation, and core suppliers like Xianhe Co. and Yingqu Technology [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, breaking the consecutive increase seen in Q2[5] - The decline in PMI is attributed to two main factors: the end of the overseas order recovery phase and disruptions caused by extreme weather[5] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, with significant impacts on industries like non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials due to extreme weather events[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics in Manufacturing - The price indicators in manufacturing showed improvement, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking increases of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from June[10] - Despite the rise in purchase prices, factory prices are contracting, indicating a widening gap that may weaken overall manufacturing profits in the short term[11] - The basic raw materials sector is the only one among four major categories to see an increase in PMI, with its purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52%[11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to near the threshold line, with both construction and service sectors contributing to this decline[16] - The construction sector's PMI dropped to 50.6%, the largest decline since January, primarily due to extreme weather and ongoing real estate weaknesses[16] - In the non-manufacturing sector, a divergence in price trends was observed, with service sector prices declining while construction input and sales prices increased significantly[19] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of no less than RMB 70 million in the first half of 2025, which is more than three times the RMB 21.8 million net profit from the same period last year [1] - The high growth in performance is attributed to "scale effects + high gross margin business + digital empowerment" [4] - The company's self-owned brand products continue to see strong downstream demand, contributing to the growth of high-margin business and improving overall gross margin [4] - The strategic flagship product, Huoxiang Zhengqi Oral Liquid, has shown strong sales performance, with a peak daily sales exceeding RMB 5 million [4] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in the second half of 2025, driven by self-owned brands, AI, robotics, and stock buybacks [4][5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be approximately RMB 20.83 billion, RMB 23.51 billion, and RMB 26.70 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 14% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 1.49 billion, RMB 3.20 billion, and RMB 5.50 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 395%, 116%, and 71% [6][7] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.89% in 2025 to 11.82% in 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 6.14% in 2025 to 16.68% in 2027 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.22 in 2025 to RMB 0.81 in 2027 [6]

麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 | 图 1：去产能的真正含义是压低产能增速，而非产能绝对规模下降 4 | | --- | | 图 2：反内卷下，产能过剩下行拐点或已到来，有望为资本市场带来一轮牛市 5 | [Table_Title] 未提新刺激，政策主线转向"反内卷" ——逐句解读 7.30 政治局会议通稿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.co ...

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 964 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 927 million yuan, reflecting a 17.85% increase year-on-year [1][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.51%, and a net profit of 553 million yuan, which is a 13.25% increase year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a strong position in the relay product market, with steady growth in consumer electronic relays and rapid growth in signal relays. The industrial relay sector is experiencing a continued recovery, while the high-voltage relay segment is expected to maintain high growth due to the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe [4] - The company is developing five new product categories, including low-voltage electrical appliances and connectors, which are expected to drive stable growth in its low-voltage switch business. The current sensor shipments increased by 36% year-on-year, and thin-film capacitor shipments rose by 31% year-on-year in H1 2025 [4] - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.97 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.60 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 15% [4] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.393 billion yuan, also reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 36.8% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 35.9% by 2025 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.34 in 2023 to 17.97 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The company has launched the Phancy AI smart glasses, which feature capabilities such as first-person perspective shooting, real-time translation, and AI voice assistance, indicating strong integration of AI solutions in hardware products [1]. - The core business, the "Prophet AI Platform," has shown robust growth, with revenue reaching 3.676 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue [3]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.077 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.1%, with a notable increase in the average revenue contribution from benchmark users [3]. - The Shift intelligent solutions business experienced a revenue decline of 20.3% in 2024, while the AIGS service business grew by 35.4% in the same year, showcasing a mixed performance across different segments [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing costs through continuous technological iterations, with R&D expenses amounting to 2.170 billion RMB in 2024, representing 41.2% of total revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The Phancy AI smart glasses were officially launched on July 23, 2025, with pre-sales initiated on the company's website and JD.com, expected to ship in early August [1]. Financial Performance - The Prophet AI Platform's revenue for 2024 was 3.676 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue was 808 million RMB, accounting for 74.8% of total revenue [3]. - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.077 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 444 million RMB, both showing a growth of 30.1% year-on-year [3]. Business Segments - The Shift intelligent solutions business saw a revenue decrease of 20.3% in 2024, while the AIGS service business grew by 35.4% [3]. - The company has 59 benchmark users in Q1 2025, with an average revenue contribution of 11.67 million RMB, up 31.3% from the previous year [3]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for 2024 were 2.170 billion RMB, with a rate of 41.2%, and Q1 2025 expenses were 368 million RMB, with a rate of 34.2%, indicating a focus on cost optimization [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.14 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a gross margin of 68.3%, up by 4.1 percentage points [2] - Revenue from new tobacco products reached $4.16 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, accounting for 41% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 69.0%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points [2] - The new tobacco segment is viewed as the company's second growth curve, with continuous expansion in product and regional matrices, now available in 97 markets globally, with a total user base of 41.5 million, an increase of 5 million year-on-year [2] - The core product, IQOS, achieved a shipment volume of 39.9 billion units in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with revenue exceeding $3 billion and a market share of 76% in the HNB market [2][3] - The company anticipates a decline of 2% in global cigarette sales for 2025, while maintaining a growth forecast of 12% to 14% for new tobacco products, with HNB growth expected at 10% to 12% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was $10.14 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 68.3% [2] - New tobacco revenue was $4.16 billion, a 15.2% increase, with a gross margin of 69.0% [2] Product Performance - IQOS shipments reached 39.9 billion units, a 9.2% increase, with revenue over $3 billion [2][3] - The nicotine pouch segment saw a 23.8% increase in sales, driven by the ZYN brand in the U.S. [3] - VEEV sales doubled in Q2 2025, primarily due to European market contributions [3] Market Outlook - The company expects a 2% decline in cigarette sales for 2025, while new tobacco products are projected to grow by 12% to 14% [3] - The introduction of IQOS ILUMA in the U.S. is anticipated to be a significant change in the new tobacco industry [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to perform well in the beverage market, particularly with its "Water Boost" product line, which saw significant growth in revenue [4] - The company is expected to maintain good growth in the energy drink market nationwide, driven by its competitive pricing and channel advantages [4] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2.040 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.6% [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 43.1% in 2023, with a gradual increase to 47.7% by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 3.92 yuan, increasing to 15.19 yuan by 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 73.98 in 2023 to 19.11 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [3]