Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the innovative drug market is expected to maintain momentum throughout the year, driven by significant business development (BD) activities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and unmet clinical needs in the innovative drug sector, suggesting that Chinese innovative drug companies are gaining global recognition [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved a weekly return of 2.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.70%, ranking first among 31 primary sub-industry indices [3][12]. - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector had the highest weekly return of 5.01%, while the medical device sub-sector ranked sixth with a return of -0.07% [3][12]. 2. Market Performance and Valuation - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index increased by 11.90% over the past month, ranking second among 31 primary sub-industry indices [14][23]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is 30.90, which is at a historically low level compared to the average PE of 30.89 over the past five years [17][19]. 3. Key Developments - Significant BD projects include: 1. Hengrui Medicine authorized overseas rights for its innovative drug HRS-9821 to GSK, with an upfront payment of $500 million and potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [3][12]. 2. CSPC Pharmaceutical authorized overseas rights for its GLP-1 receptor agonist SYH2086 to Madrigal, with a total package amount of $2.075 billion [3][12]. 3. Lepu Biopharma authorized overseas rights for two T cell connector projects to Excalipoint, with an upfront payment of $10 million and potential milestone payments of $847.5 million [3][12]. 4. Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on the upstream supply chain of innovative drugs and high-end medical devices, highlighting key companies in these sectors [3][4]. - In the innovative drug sector, attention is drawn to areas such as dual-target and multi-target therapies, small nucleic acids, and PD-1/L1 based constructs [3][4]. 5. Policy Dynamics - The report notes the implementation of a childcare subsidy policy effective from January 1, 2025, which aims to support families with children under three years old, potentially impacting the healthcare sector positively [3][12].

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has stopped falling, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. Short - duration and low - grade varieties have shown strong performance. Credit spreads have mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads have generally remained stable, with differentiation among different regions [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads have slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have also decreased [2][17]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined, and the spreads have generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds [2][24]. - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds have generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds [2][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Stabilization and Credit Spread Changes - Interest - rate bond yields first rose and then fell, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds declining by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the decline in interest rates but underperformed interest - rate bonds. The yield changes of 7Y varieties with a small previous adjustment were limited [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining. Rating spreads and term spreads showed significant differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - Overall, urban investment bond spreads remained stable, with differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA and AA platforms remained flat, while those of AA + platforms increased by 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and county - level platforms generally remained flat [16]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds also decreased. The spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real estate bonds remained flat, those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds declined by 4BP, and those of private - enterprise real estate bonds increased by 8BP [2][17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of each grade declined by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated steel bonds declined by 3BP; the spreads of AAA - rated chemical bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated chemical bonds declined by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds all declined, and the spreads generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds, with high - grade varieties performing slightly better [2][24]. 3.5 Perpetual Bond Excess Spreads - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds increased by 3.34BP to 7.16BP, and those of 5Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds remained flat at 7.65BP [2][27]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [31]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in water assets combined with Real-World Assets (RWA) under innovative financing models. RWA refers to the tokenization of tangible or intangible assets through blockchain technology, allowing for the trading of these assets as digital tokens. As of July 30, 2025, the total RWA on-chain scale is $25.17 billion, with a total value of stablecoins at $253.66 billion [3][17][21]. - The report highlights the stable income and continuous cash flow characteristics of water assets, making them attractive for investment, especially in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes environmental quality and industrial green development [3][45]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 1, 2025, the environmental sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% to 3559.95. The top-performing sectors include pharmaceuticals and communications, while coal and non-ferrous metals saw significant declines [3][10][13]. Industry Dynamics - Recent statements from President Xi Jinping at the National Ecological Environment Protection Conference stress the importance of ecological civilization and the need for harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Additionally, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has allocated approximately $2.8995 million for air pollution prevention projects [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the water and waste incineration sectors, as operational assets, are expected to see stable profit growth and positive cash flow. The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, while also suggesting attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [3][45].

- The SKEW index has reached historical highs, signaling elevated tail risk concerns. Specifically, the SKEW values for major indices are as follows: CSI 1000 SKEW at 110.41, CSI 500 SKEW at 99.92, SSE 50 SKEW at 101.43, and CSI 300 SKEW at 106.06[4][73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects market expectations of future volatility. As of August 1, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for major indices are: SSE 50 VIX at 19.16, CSI 300 VIX at 19.22, CSI 500 VIX at 23.22, and CSI 1000 VIX at 22.76[4][64][66] - The SKEW index measures implied volatility skew across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment regarding tail risks. A SKEW value above 100 indicates heightened concerns about potential market downturns, often associated with increased demand for out-of-the-money put options[73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index incorporates term structures to reflect volatility expectations across different time horizons, providing insights into investor sentiment for various periods[64][66][70] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) adjusted annualized basis spread declined to -10.33%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) adjusted annualized basis spread fell to -11.85%[22][39][46] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy achieved weekly returns of 0.55%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy delivered weekly returns of 0.32%[4][49][60] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -2.80% to -1.04%, with volatility between 3.84% and 4.63%, and maximum drawdown from -8.65% to -7.97%[49][50][52] - The CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -6.03% to -3.84%, with volatility between 4.73% and 5.57%, and maximum drawdown from -14.00% to -11.11%[60][61][62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that British American Tobacco's (BAT) new tobacco products are showing signs of profitability recovery, particularly the HNB product Hilo, which is expected to drive future earnings growth [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, BAT reported revenues of £12.069 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, but a 1.8% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates. New tobacco product revenues remained stable at £1.651 billion, accounting for 13.7% of total revenue [2][3] - The adjusted gross margin for new tobacco products increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.6%, which is 10 percentage points higher than traditional cigarettes, indicating a potential for continued profitability improvement [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, BAT's revenue from new tobacco products was £1.651 billion, with a stable year-on-year performance and a 2.4% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates. This segment accounted for 13.7% of total revenue, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The overall tobacco market is expected to see a 2% decline in sales volume globally in 2025, while BAT anticipates its own growth to be between 1% and 2%, with new tobacco products expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth [2] Product Performance - The vaping segment saw revenues of £740 million in H1 2025, down 15.3% year-on-year, with a volume of 250 million units sold, a decrease of 12.9%. The decline in the US was attributed to illegal disposable products and inventory disruptions, while the European market is recovering due to improved regulatory conditions [2][3] - The HNB segment generated £440 million in revenue, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Sales volume was 10.1 billion units, up 1.6%. The APMEA region showed an 8.7% increase in HNB sales, driven by significant contributions from Japan and Kazakhstan [3] - The oral tobacco segment experienced a revenue increase of 38.1% year-on-year, reaching £470 million, with a global market share increase of 4.4 percentage points. The US market saw a remarkable revenue growth of 372% year-on-year, driven by the successful nationwide launch of Velo Plus [4] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for HNB products to continue driving growth, with a focus on product iteration and market expansion. Key companies to watch include Smoore International, China National Tobacco Corporation, and core suppliers like Xianhe Co. and Yingqu Technology [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, breaking the consecutive increase seen in Q2[5] - The decline in PMI is attributed to two main factors: the end of the overseas order recovery phase and disruptions caused by extreme weather[5] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, with significant impacts on industries like non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials due to extreme weather events[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics in Manufacturing - The price indicators in manufacturing showed improvement, with the main raw material purchase price index rising to 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, marking increases of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively from June[10] - Despite the rise in purchase prices, factory prices are contracting, indicating a widening gap that may weaken overall manufacturing profits in the short term[11] - The basic raw materials sector is the only one among four major categories to see an increase in PMI, with its purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52%[11] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to near the threshold line, with both construction and service sectors contributing to this decline[16] - The construction sector's PMI dropped to 50.6%, the largest decline since January, primarily due to extreme weather and ongoing real estate weaknesses[16] - In the non-manufacturing sector, a divergence in price trends was observed, with service sector prices declining while construction input and sales prices increased significantly[19] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to economic stability[22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of no less than RMB 70 million in the first half of 2025, which is more than three times the RMB 21.8 million net profit from the same period last year [1] - The high growth in performance is attributed to "scale effects + high gross margin business + digital empowerment" [4] - The company's self-owned brand products continue to see strong downstream demand, contributing to the growth of high-margin business and improving overall gross margin [4] - The strategic flagship product, Huoxiang Zhengqi Oral Liquid, has shown strong sales performance, with a peak daily sales exceeding RMB 5 million [4] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in the second half of 2025, driven by self-owned brands, AI, robotics, and stock buybacks [4][5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be approximately RMB 20.83 billion, RMB 23.51 billion, and RMB 26.70 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 14% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 1.49 billion, RMB 3.20 billion, and RMB 5.50 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 395%, 116%, and 71% [6][7] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.89% in 2025 to 11.82% in 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 6.14% in 2025 to 16.68% in 2027 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.22 in 2025 to RMB 0.81 in 2027 [6]

麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 | 图 1：去产能的真正含义是压低产能增速，而非产能绝对规模下降 4 | | --- | | 图 2：反内卷下，产能过剩下行拐点或已到来，有望为资本市场带来一轮牛市 5 | [Table_Title] 未提新刺激，政策主线转向"反内卷" ——逐句解读 7.30 政治局会议通稿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.co ...

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 964 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 927 million yuan, reflecting a 17.85% increase year-on-year [1][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.51%, and a net profit of 553 million yuan, which is a 13.25% increase year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a strong position in the relay product market, with steady growth in consumer electronic relays and rapid growth in signal relays. The industrial relay sector is experiencing a continued recovery, while the high-voltage relay segment is expected to maintain high growth due to the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe [4] - The company is developing five new product categories, including low-voltage electrical appliances and connectors, which are expected to drive stable growth in its low-voltage switch business. The current sensor shipments increased by 36% year-on-year, and thin-film capacitor shipments rose by 31% year-on-year in H1 2025 [4] - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.97 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.60 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 15% [4] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.393 billion yuan, also reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 36.8% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 35.9% by 2025 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.34 in 2023 to 17.97 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [3]