麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 | ] 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 邮 | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 证券研究报告 | 图 1：去产能的真正含义是压低产能增速，而非产能绝对规模下降 4 | | --- | | 图 2：反内卷下，产能过剩下行拐点或已到来，有望为资本市场带来一轮牛市 5 | [Table_Title] 未提新刺激，政策主线转向"反内卷" ——逐句解读 7.30 政治局会议通稿 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.co ...

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.347 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 964 million yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 927 million yuan, reflecting a 17.85% increase year-on-year [1][4] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.51%, and a net profit of 553 million yuan, which is a 13.25% increase year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a strong position in the relay product market, with steady growth in consumer electronic relays and rapid growth in signal relays. The industrial relay sector is experiencing a continued recovery, while the high-voltage relay segment is expected to maintain high growth due to the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in Europe [4] - The company is developing five new product categories, including low-voltage electrical appliances and connectors, which are expected to drive stable growth in its low-voltage switch business. The current sensor shipments increased by 36% year-on-year, and thin-film capacitor shipments rose by 31% year-on-year in H1 2025 [4] - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.97 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.60 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 15% [4] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.393 billion yuan, also reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 36.8% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 35.9% by 2025 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.34 in 2023 to 17.97 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The company has launched the Phancy AI smart glasses, which feature capabilities such as first-person perspective shooting, real-time translation, and AI voice assistance, indicating strong integration of AI solutions in hardware products [1]. - The core business, the "Prophet AI Platform," has shown robust growth, with revenue reaching 3.676 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue [3]. - The company reported a total revenue of 1.077 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.1%, with a notable increase in the average revenue contribution from benchmark users [3]. - The Shift intelligent solutions business experienced a revenue decline of 20.3% in 2024, while the AIGS service business grew by 35.4% in the same year, showcasing a mixed performance across different segments [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing costs through continuous technological iterations, with R&D expenses amounting to 2.170 billion RMB in 2024, representing 41.2% of total revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The Phancy AI smart glasses were officially launched on July 23, 2025, with pre-sales initiated on the company's website and JD.com, expected to ship in early August [1]. Financial Performance - The Prophet AI Platform's revenue for 2024 was 3.676 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue was 808 million RMB, accounting for 74.8% of total revenue [3]. - The total revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.077 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 444 million RMB, both showing a growth of 30.1% year-on-year [3]. Business Segments - The Shift intelligent solutions business saw a revenue decrease of 20.3% in 2024, while the AIGS service business grew by 35.4% [3]. - The company has 59 benchmark users in Q1 2025, with an average revenue contribution of 11.67 million RMB, up 31.3% from the previous year [3]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for 2024 were 2.170 billion RMB, with a rate of 41.2%, and Q1 2025 expenses were 368 million RMB, with a rate of 34.2%, indicating a focus on cost optimization [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $10.14 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a gross margin of 68.3%, up by 4.1 percentage points [2] - Revenue from new tobacco products reached $4.16 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, accounting for 41% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 69.0%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points [2] - The new tobacco segment is viewed as the company's second growth curve, with continuous expansion in product and regional matrices, now available in 97 markets globally, with a total user base of 41.5 million, an increase of 5 million year-on-year [2] - The core product, IQOS, achieved a shipment volume of 39.9 billion units in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with revenue exceeding $3 billion and a market share of 76% in the HNB market [2][3] - The company anticipates a decline of 2% in global cigarette sales for 2025, while maintaining a growth forecast of 12% to 14% for new tobacco products, with HNB growth expected at 10% to 12% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was $10.14 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 68.3% [2] - New tobacco revenue was $4.16 billion, a 15.2% increase, with a gross margin of 69.0% [2] Product Performance - IQOS shipments reached 39.9 billion units, a 9.2% increase, with revenue over $3 billion [2][3] - The nicotine pouch segment saw a 23.8% increase in sales, driven by the ZYN brand in the U.S. [3] - VEEV sales doubled in Q2 2025, primarily due to European market contributions [3] Market Outlook - The company expects a 2% decline in cigarette sales for 2025, while new tobacco products are projected to grow by 12% to 14% [3] - The introduction of IQOS ILUMA in the U.S. is anticipated to be a significant change in the new tobacco industry [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to perform well in the beverage market, particularly with its "Water Boost" product line, which saw significant growth in revenue [4] - The company is expected to maintain good growth in the energy drink market nationwide, driven by its competitive pricing and channel advantages [4] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 11.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2.040 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.6% [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 43.1% in 2023, with a gradual increase to 47.7% by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 3.92 yuan, increasing to 15.19 yuan by 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 73.98 in 2023 to 19.11 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on WuXi AppTec (603259), with an upgraded full-year performance guidance reflecting strong growth potential [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, driven by robust performance in the TIDES business, which saw a revenue growth of 141.6% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 6.31 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [1][2]. - The company has raised its revenue growth target for continuous operations from 10-15% to 13-17% for the full year 2025, with total revenue expectations adjusted from 41.5-43 billion yuan to 42.5-43.5 billion yuan [5]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The chemical business generated 16.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 33.5% increase, with an adjusted gross margin of 49.0%, up 5.2 percentage points [2]. - The TIDES business achieved 5.03 billion yuan in revenue, with a 48.8% increase in orders on hand [2]. - The testing business reported 2.69 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decline of 1.2%, but showed signs of recovery in Q2 2025 with a 5.5% year-on-year growth [3]. - The biological business generated 1.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase, contributing significantly to new customer acquisition [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 43.54 billion yuan, 49.63 billion yuan, and 55.77 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 14.53 billion yuan, 13.79 billion yuan, and 15.86 billion yuan [7]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of 5.06 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18.11 [7]. Market Position - Approximately 85% of the company's revenue comes from overseas clients, with significant contributions from the U.S. market, which grew by 38.4% year-on-year [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading global CRDMO player, demonstrating resilience against geopolitical risks [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected net profit of 1.15 billion, 1.69 billion, and 2.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 57.4X, 39.0X, and 27.1X [3]. Core Viewpoints - The launch of the new drone sub-brand "Yingling Antigravity" is expected to open up a blue ocean market, potentially leading to significant revenue growth for the company [2][3]. - The global aerial drone market is projected to grow from 7.1 billion USD in 2023 to 12.2 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.6% [3]. - The company is positioned to leverage its innovation capabilities and advantages in image algorithms and AI editing to become a strong competitor in the market [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yingstone Innovation has launched the world's first 8K panoramic drone, aiming to enhance user experience through innovative product features [2]. - The company has a history of product innovation, having previously released a 5.7K external panoramic camera drone [2]. Market Potential - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the drone market, with DJI currently holding over 70% market share but facing competition from Yingstone Innovation's innovative products [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a comprehensive product matrix that includes panoramic cameras, action cameras, and drones, capitalizing on the increasing penetration of these products in the market [3]. Financial Projections - The total revenue is projected to grow from 3.64 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.46 billion yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 78.2% in 2023 and gradually decreasing to 39.8% by 2027 [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable around 51.5% to 56.0% over the forecast period [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 12-12.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 241%-255%. Adjusted net profit is projected to be 2.3-2.36 billion yuan, up 282%-292%, while net profit is estimated at 2.23-2.28 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 279%-288% [1][2] - The significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily driven by the increase in same-store sales and online channel growth. The company anticipates that the contribution from new stores will enhance overall performance in the second half of 2025 [2] - The company's brand influence continues to expand, creating a notable market advantage that drives substantial revenue growth across both online and offline stores. Product iterations and optimizations are also contributing to this growth [2] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 is expected to improve, with adjusted net profit margin around 18.9%-19.2%, compared to 17.7% in 2024. The overall net profit margin is projected to be 18.2%-18.6%, up from 16.7% in the first half of 2024 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 24.6 billion, 35.8 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 189%, 45%, and 29% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 4.918 billion, 7.256 billion, and 9.435 billion yuan, with growth rates of 234%, 48%, and 30% respectively [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 28.48, 42.02, and 54.64 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24, 16, and 12 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GaoNeng Environment (603588) is not explicitly stated in the report [1]. Core Viewpoints - The profitability of the resource utilization sector is steadily improving, and the company is actively exploring diversified business models in operational services [1][3]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 502 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.85% [1][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness through upstream and downstream collaboration in the resource utilization sector [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 347 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214.01% [3]. - The main business revenues for H1 2025 were as follows: solid waste hazardous waste resource utilization at 5.205 billion yuan (down 8.3% YoY), environmental operation services at 904 million yuan (up 2.31% YoY), and environmental engineering at 592 million yuan (down 40.04% YoY) [3]. - The gross profit margins for these segments were 13.41%, 49.71%, and 12.35%, respectively, with changes of +4.65 percentage points, +2.59 percentage points, and -4.26 percentage points YoY [3]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy focusing on metals such as copper, lead, and nickel, while also emphasizing precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum group metals [3]. - The company is optimizing procurement channels and production processes to enhance profitability, with specific projects like Jiangxi Xinke and Jinyuan GaoNeng showing improved operational efficiency [3][4]. - The environmental operation services segment is exploring diversification by integrating power generation and heating services, utilizing waste incineration byproducts [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 15.113 billion yuan, 16.476 billion yuan, and 17.457 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.2%, 9.0%, and 6.0% respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 786 million yuan, 915 million yuan, and 1.063 billion yuan, with growth rates of 63.1%, 16.4%, and 16.2% respectively [6].