Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (stock code: 600926) [1] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank continues to show strong profit growth, with a 2024 revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 18.07% year-on-year. The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16%, reflecting a 0.43 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530.07% as of March 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The bank's strategy focuses on expanding its presence in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a clear plan to strengthen corporate finance and enhance retail and small micro-business services [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's revenue reached approximately 38.38 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 9.61% for 2025 [38] - The net interest income for 2024 was approximately 24.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [39] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is estimated at 16.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 18.07% [38] Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, with a stable level of attention loans at 0.55% [3] - The bank's retail loan risk has slightly increased, with an NPL ratio of 0.77% for retail loans [3] Growth Strategy - The bank is actively expanding in the Yangtze River Delta, leveraging its geographical advantages to enhance its market position [3] - The bank's strategic plan includes strengthening corporate finance and expanding retail and small micro-business services as key growth drivers [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 19.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 0.76X for 2025, 0.65X for 2026, and 0.55X for 2027 [3][38]

ꧼ岉煝疵 · 掾駬䫟⼴ 㐃ꄽ芤┱銻ꃹ뀔劻▇ꭊ耘臅⥈㠁✇䪹䭃 耘臅⥈ 5 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴ 2025 䌑 05 劓 08 傽 呦䖦間掾 ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S 潸⪸煝疵 2025-05-07⪸ꨴ僓ꭊ虹掾溸䉘⚷┞䴗㲳ꓭ鄌侓 瞬甯䉗㐙甯뀔劻 2025-05-05䌑䫟⾕┞㳌䫟劔〘◲☗掾 2025-05-04◩┞⢏劻◜⚂唯槏䉗㐙㺥労 2025-04-25䭦缩甯㴼⾕嵛鳢鰑续䉗㐙臔撌〘◲ 做긖4 劓╚㝠侓岖㹾⚷駖闌騣 2025-04-23⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ┞㳌䍳䭦♎ꓤ侒〘◲⟥⺵ 2025-04-08╚㎼曬䌐⬮㕈ꓭ埭疿⮃┿䳀䮵䉗㐙⟥䖦 2025-04-08寤ꓭ⪝䉗㑏㴼澚㝃 2025-04-03㸉瞏⪸瓭⬐⮄䉗㐙ꏕ翞뀔劻 2025-04-03艧 䌑◝㳌䍳䫌鰑㺥労♈⛓⡽⟶ 㜩⯒漥⯈⩽楓 2025-04-022025 䌑◝㳌䍳 A 艧䫌鰑㺥労낊呬⮘䰄 㐭銝ꏕ翞 2025-03-22艧䉗㐙 2025 䌑♨匡鉿䝠䬏闌 2025-03-21╅ⶬ锟訒呦䖦⢏駦劔〘◲ 2025-03-17巆鰆愗ⲇꓤ侒䭰䑜䫌鰑做⻔վ䳀䮵 巆鰆┺뀉鉿Ⲙ做呿տ闌騣 2025- ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, with limited incremental information provided[2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that rate cuts may not occur in the first half of the year, as they remain data-dependent[2] - The Fed is likely to implement two to three rate cuts in the second half of the year, with the probability of a July cut decreasing[2][4] Inflation and Economic Concerns - The Fed emphasizes the risk of stagflation, with concerns about rising inflation and potential increases in unemployment[5] - Internal divisions within the Fed exist regarding the approach to inflation, with some officials advocating for preemptive rate cuts if hard data deteriorates significantly[5][10] - The inflation target for 2025 is projected to remain between 3.0%-3.5%, which does not hinder the possibility of rate cuts[22] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations indicate three potential rate cuts by 2025, with the first cut anticipated in July[20] - U.S. stock indices rose following the meeting, while U.S. Treasury yields declined, reflecting market relief at the Fed's cautious approach[20] - The dollar index increased to 99.9006, indicating market stability despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation[20] Economic Data and Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, but there are risks of deterioration that could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts[14][18] - The Fed's reliance on hard data suggests that any significant economic downturn may not be observed until mid-year or later[12][22] - The ongoing tariff negotiations and fiscal policies are deemed more critical in the short term than immediate Fed actions[15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating for the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 77.77 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.22%, and is expected to reach 113.39 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 11.31% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 5.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.70 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.76% [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.43% in 2024 to 29.18% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [2][8]. Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 77.77 billion yuan in 2024 to 113.39 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 6.22%, 14.38%, 14.52%, and 11.31% for the respective years [2][8]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 6.09 billion yuan in 2024 to 12.94 billion yuan in 2027, with profit growth rates of 31.98%, 39.72%, 25.97%, and 20.76% [2][8]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 10.08 billion yuan in 2024 to 18.80 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 152.15 billion yuan in 2024 to 184.22 billion yuan in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 79.14 billion yuan to 92.39 billion yuan over the same period [7]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 71.95 billion yuan in 2024 to 90.18 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is projected to be 14.81 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 17.12 billion yuan by 2027 [7]. - The net increase in cash is expected to be 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual decrease to 4.33 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 27.91 in 2024 to 13.13 in 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.30% in 2024 to 14.08% in 2027, reflecting better profitability [8].

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

国收研究报告 业绩为底、超跌标的与条款机会为矛 5 月转债策略展望 核心观点 分析师 刘雅坤 ☎: 17887940037 网: liuyakun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523100001 研究助理: 郝禹 ☎：19801890018 网: haoyu_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2025年5月7日 4 月权益市场下跌 3.2%,转债市场跟跌 1.3%。4 月权益市场受月初美国 ● 对等关税冲击先快速下行、随后小幅回升后横盘,转债与正股趋势同步收跌, 抗跌属性下跌幅较窄。当月万得全 A 指数收于 4956.1 点（环比-3.2%）; 中 证转债指数收于 421.9 点（环比-1.3%）。4 月初特朗普政府实施对等关税政 策,引发全球资本市场剧烈波动。转债跟随全 A 指数快速下行至 7 日低点。 中央汇金增持 A 股 ETF 后市场放量回升,资金在关税博弈中转向内需及自主 可控主线,推动行业轮动与高低切换行情展开。随 22日特朗普 ...

揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期 关键时间节点的发布会 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹、周美丽 相关研究 | 2025-05-05，年报和一季报有哪些亮点? | | --- | | 2025-05-04. "五一"假期事件梳理及市场展望 | | 2025-04-25,"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些 | | 方面? -- 4 月中央政治局会议解读 | | 2025-04-23,公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? | | 2025-04-08. 中国版平准基金横空出世提振市场信心 | | 2025-04-08,汇金入市,坚定看多 | | 2025-04-03, "对等关税"冲击市场配置预期 | | 2025-04-03,港股 2025 年二季度投资展望:从估值修 | | 复到盈利兑现 | | 2025-04-02,2025年二季度 A 股投资展望:风格切换, | | 均衡配置 | | 2025-03-22. 港股市场 2025年以来行情拆解 | | 2025-03- ...

行业点评报告 ·银行业 降准降息落地、中长期资金入市、坚守红利价值 5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会解读 2025 年 5 月 7 日 银行 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 数量型与价格型工具升级加码、降准降息落地 相对沪深 300 表现图 2024-05-07 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件:国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金融监管总局、证监会介绍"一揽子金 融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 数量型与价格型工具升级加码,降准降息落地:降准幅度为50BP,释放流 0 动性 1 万亿元,同时阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从 目前的 5%调降为 0%;政策利率降息幅度为 10BP,预计带动 LPR 同步下行 10BP,同时下调结构 ...

下调公积金贷款利率,拟推融资政策 2025 年国新办一揽子金融政策点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 网: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-5-6 房地产(申万 40% 20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 行业点评·房地产行业 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_持续巩固稳 定态势，有力有序推进城改 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_全面发力, 持续推动地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产_内生和外生因素 支撑下的需求中枢 4. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_供需两侧齐 发力,推动地产止跌回稳 5. 【银河地产】行业点评_加快构建新模式,推进地 产新篇章_三中全会专题研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 o 事件: 2025年 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金管局、证监会等 部门负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May 2025, with a high supply of bonds and a likely loose capital situation, and considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not expected to decline. The central bank's announcements of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7, 2025, are in line with market expectations, with the interest rate cut slightly exceeding expectations. The short - end of the bond market prices in the downward shift of policy interest rates, while the long - end prices in profit - taking and the stock - bond seesaw effect [2]. - The implementation of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the promotion of science and technology innovation bonds is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market and the real economy. Reserve requirement ratio cuts can provide long - term liquidity, stabilize bank net interest margins, and promote credit expansion. Interest rate cuts support employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The development of science and technology innovation bonds will help accelerate scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Monetary Policy - **Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut**: A 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut will provide 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance will be reduced from 5% to 0%. This can release low - cost long - term funds, stabilize bank net interest margins, and guide banks to increase credit supply [2]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: The 7 - day OMO rate will be cut by 10BP to 1.4%, and it is expected to drive a 10BP decline in LPR. The central bank will also lower the re - lending rate and the provident fund lending rate, reflecting a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2]. - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: The interest rate of structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, from 1.75% to 1.5%. The PSL rate for policy - based financial institutions will be cut from 2.25% to 2%. A 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care special re - lending facility will be established. The quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - lending will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and the quota for agricultural and small - business re - lending will be increased by 300 billion yuan [2]. - **Reasons for Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts**: The central bank's goal of stabilizing the exchange rate has been achieved in the short - term. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate has returned to 7.2 since late April. Fundamental pressures may gradually emerge, with the impact of tariff policies on external demand and the economy likely to show in Q2, as indicated by the decline of the PMI in April. Tariffs have entered the substantive negotiation stage, and the central bank is taking preemptive policy actions to deal with potential market fluctuations [2]. Science and Technology Innovation Bond Risk - Sharing Tools - The central bank has promoted the development of science and technology innovation bonds. Financial institutions, science and technology enterprises, and private equity investment institutions are supported to issue such bonds. The relevant policies and preparations for the "science and technology board" of the bond market are basically completed. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. This is an effective follow - up to the Politburo meeting in April and is expected to boost scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. Outlook on the Bond Market - In May, with a high supply of bonds, the capital situation is likely to remain loose. Considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not bearish in the short - term. After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the short - end bond yields usually decline by 1 - 4BP on the next trading day, and then may rise in 5 - 10 trading days. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors can consider trading on dips and pay attention to ultra - long - term bonds and short - duration assets [2].